Wednesday, April 12, 2000, Chandigarh, India
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Worse
than bodyline
A
HOT SUMMER FOR KASHMIR? |
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The IT boom and bust by Balraj Mehta THE boom of the information technology (IT) stocks on the bourses in India last year was out of proportion to the value of its products and earnings. IT companies in India depend for their earnings on the supply of software to be used by foreign, especially US, corporations. When the technology stock traded in New York tumbled, the value of the shares of Indian IT companies could not escape a bust either.
Of
angles, angels and astrologers
Grand alliance differs
over leader
April 12, 1925
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A HOT
SUMMER FOR KASHMIR? NOW that the snows in the upper reaches of Kashmir are beginning to melt, common intelligence as well as experience suggest that Pakistan will enlarge infiltration and intensify its bloody deeds across the LoC and, of course, in the valley. Not that the winter this time halted their terrorist machinations. In fact, the end of their Kargil invasion which coincided with the end of summer witnessed major escalation in violent incidents, including some audacious strikes at our security apparatus in Srinagar itself. The Clintonian exhortation to maintain peace on the LoC notwithstanding, there is nothing in the subcontinental air to suggest the slightest improvement on the ground. On the other hand, there is ample evidence to portend a substantial worsening of the situation in the coming weeks and months. Home Minister Lal Krishan Advani finds it strange that Pakistan should step up its terrorist depredations after every Indian Triumph. It is ironical, he said recently, that India has had to confront terrorism after 1971 and more ironical that there has been a spurt in terrorism after our victory in Kargil. This dripping naivette betrays the absence of a basic understanding of the designs of those who call the shots in Pakistan, whether in civvies or in uniform. It is this lack of perception and perspective on our part that has emboldened Pakistan and caused us so much trouble and tragedy, right from the first invasion of Kashmir in 1947 to the Kargil war which cost us more than 500 young lives without winning for us even short-term peace. More likely than not, at least short-term peace would have been possible if we had, to use a Hindi proverb, answered Pakistans eenth (brick) with a pathar (stone), that is, punished it for the invasion in a manner that made security sense. Instead, we were content with merely pushing them back to the LoC, and called it a great victory. For the rest, the Prime Minister made a plaintive appeal to the USA to designate Pakistan a terrorist state and otherwise prevail on it to cease and desist in Kashmir. This is a piece with our decision during Pakistans first invasion of Kashmir to go to the United Nations in the foolish belief that the Security Council (dominated by ex-colonial powers, including the one which divided India and created Pakistan) would listen to our good-boy prayer and ask Pakistan to vacate the aggression. That first of what has been a procession of blunders resulted in losing one-third of the state to the aggressor. In 1965 and 1971 when our military superiority could have been used to deal a durable blow to Pakistans war machine and consequently to its ambition to wrest Kashmir and dismember India (Punjab), we acted in defiance of all canons of statecraft, war and peace and returned to them not just the one lakh prisoners of war but sizeable territories, including, incredibly enough, some strategic areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (which we claim as ours) without gaining anything in terms of a settlement or even a binding assurance of non-violent behaviour on their part. The people of India and especially those who voted for the BJP-led alliance because of that partys (then) strong platform of national self-respect and national interests first and above all expected a qualitative and hopefully decisive change in our dealings with Pakistan, particularly in regard to Kashmir. These hopes stand seriously eroded first by the predictable denouement of the government-created and media-endorsed delusion about Pakistans desire to end its rabid hostility against us as a result of Mr Vajpayees bus ride to Wagah and then by the self-limited response to the Kargil invasion and the humiliating mismanagement of the hijacking episode. When Kargil hit us, the people of India and perhaps the whole world expected that we would answer Pakistans perfidy by a crippling blow to the training and supply camps, if only to minimise if not eliminate renewed mischief on their part. As it happened, however, the people had underestimated even this governments resolve not to break out of the traditional weak-kneed responses of successive Indian governments. But there is one difference this time: the government sought and is seeking the help of the eager-to-intervene Big Brother in Washington. Hence the subterraneous delight in official circles at President Clintons exhortation about respecting the Line of Control. That this was directed as much at India as at Pakistan was completely lost on our political and diplomatic leadership. It may be that the government acquiesces in what is implicit in Mr Clintons advice, namely, that the LoC be treated as the international border. In that case why doesnt the government make bold to openly say so, why doesnt it try to convince the country that this is the best solution and move to make Parliament jettison its unanimous resolution to regain all of Kashmir? Why doesnt it then officially offer the solution to Pakistan? Far from doing any of this, the Prime Minister has reiterated the claim to the whole of Kashmir. India will not enter into any talks with Pakistan unless the latter vacates the occupied territory in Kashmir, he declared just the other day. When the Prime Minister says something like this, his countrymen expect that his government means it. However, within days of Mr Vajpayees assertion, his Foreign Minister put ending cross-border terrorism as the sole condition for the resumption of talks. But it is not as though Mr Jaswant Singh was overriding his Prime Minister and changing the policy; he was merely re-stating what the government said virtually the day after the Kargil war ended. Imagine, we offer the olive branch and we are subjected to a fierce war. We dont seek to punish them, we dont even demand war reparations, never mind seeking it through the World Court. Instead, we go there to defend ourselves against their demand for compensation for downing their spy plane, after repeated warnings, over our own territory! And we say we are ready to talk but please first end terrorism! This defensive, virtually apologetic mindset comes to the fore at every turn, even as the killings continue, bombs go on exploding, RDX and weapons and counterfeit Indian currency are seized from ISI agents on a daily basis. These come from various directions, including friendly Nepal, but now increasingly through the Samjhauta (!) Express, the train service between India and Pakistan which Pakistan has threatened to discontinue on some technical ground but which our Ministry of External Affairs rushes to declare India is committed to continue! One would have thought it would be the other way round but, given our namby-pamby pronouncements and policies, one no longer knows what to think! This government has been crying hoarse about the ISIs expanding mischief in India and had promised a White Paper on the subject to expose the agency and its masters. The facts have been collected and the document is ready, but it wont be released because, according to a newspaper report, the government fears there may be a backlash against ISI agents and allied miscreants and, believe it or not, in order not to upset certain influential sections. So, not only the international community whose support we desperately seek but even the people of India shall not know. What they must know, however, is that the counter-insurgency grid is to be restructured, the intelligence network is to be divided into 39 sectors, and day and night area domination is to be established to defeat terrorism in Kashmir. All this after a high-level security meeting of the Cabinet. Pray, what use is this information to the public? If the idea of this disclosure was/is to send shivers up the spines of the terrorists, well, they have responded by massacring 35 Sikh villagers in Kashmir, (as they have tens of scores of Pandits). And not just civilians. Small bands of terrorists come prepared to attain martyrdom and attack our security establishments, and we blow up the buildings in which they park themselves. This presumably is our pro-active policy at work to kill terrorists who come on suicide missions! And now, in a significant policy decision which could have far-reaching implications, three jailed Hurriyat leaders have been released. (At the time of writing they were being treated as honoured guests and put up in the posh state guest house in the Capital just a few miles from where thousands of Kashmiri Pandits, ousted from the valley by gun-toting militants, continue to languish in inhuman camps!). And the first thing they do is to reiterate their secessionist sentiments and even hobnob with the Pakistani High Commissioner! There are reports that
the government plans to hold talks with the secessionist
trio, and also perhaps involve some Pakistan-sponsored
local militant organisations in Kashmir, with a view to
reviewing Centre-state ties. If the idea is greater
autonomy, it is welcome and indeed necessary for all the
states of the Union. But there are hints that the
proposed negotiations may be on the basis of
the pre-1953 status. If true, it marks an incredible
metamorphosis of the ruling BJP which has all along stood
for the abolition of Article 370. Be that as it may,
those who expect that a reversion to a framework of
limited accession will end the violence in the state and
make Pakistan stop terrorism and cancel its ambition of
annexing Kashmir will find that they are living in a
fools paradise. |
The IT
boom and bust THE boom of the information technology (IT) stocks on the bourses in India last year was out of proportion to the value of its products and earnings. IT companies in India depend for their earnings on the supply of software to be used by foreign, especially US, corporations. When the technology stock traded in New York tumbled, the value of the shares of Indian IT companies could not escape a bust either. The increase in the wealth of individuals or companies in India, engaged in the software business, was dazzling. But a good chunk of this wealth on paper has disappeared after the sharp erosion of their stock in recent weeks. This by itself does not, however, have much significance for the working of the real economy of India. IT and its application in India is so far only of marginal relevance to economic activity on a broad social base and is primarily of elitist interest. The number of Indians using IT software in India is estimated to be no more than half a million. Its relevance in futuristic terms too is bound to be limited unless there is a dramatic spurt in the rate of growth of the real economy and rapid rebuilding of appropriate material and social infrastructure for this purpose. The idea indeed is fanciful that the IT industry by way of software exports can play the leadership role in the economic growth and modernisation of India. The rise of any particular industry or its segment to a leadership position is possible only if it can attract within its fold, directly or indirectly, a substantial chunk of the resources of the country human, financial and material for optimal engagement. The software exports are simply not suited for such engagement. On the contrary, their impact on economic activity and social relations as well as utilisation of resources is likely to be disruptive, indeed counter-productive, in many ways. The importance given to software export has already resulted in distorting priorities in the allocation of financial resources for the balanced development of human and material infrastructure. Even in the limited sphere of the IT sector, the development of hardware has tended to be pushed back and software exports have gained ascendancy. The development of software for exports too has failed to establish appropriate forward and backward linkages with the growth of the domestic economy and the educational, cultural and social progress of the country. It has indeed tended to be an isolated and insular activity. Another problem in the wake of the attempt to try and boost software exports is the spurt of speculative activity in the bourses. Shady finance companies have emerged and smart operators under high-sounding IT claims and nomenclatures are at work to attract public savings by fraudulent methods. They are also enjoying fiscal concessions from the government. There is a need for the strict regulation of the IT sector, in particular, software exports. There is a need also to lay down norms for the fixation of a price-earning ratio for the shares and stocks of IT companies that are being traded in the stock markets as well as the salary and perks of those working in these firms. This is not to deny the positive role of IT in the socio-economic development process in India or world-wide. What is necessary is the attempt to try and develop technology relevant to the domestic economic activity on a broad front and make it more efficient and rewarding. The current obsessive concern with software exports is wrong and misdirected. The need is for the delineation of an appropriate technology policy and not just IT policy and the boost of software exports. Indian scientists, in spite of many hurdles and handicaps in their way, have notable achievements of their initiative and perseverance in many critical areas. There is, however, widespread scepticism among scientists and technologists about the official technology policy. The market-friendly economic growth policy and political-strategic obligations under the globalisation banner have indeed restricted to a dangerous extent the space for Indian science to flourish and appropriate technology to develop and deliver essential goods. The Indian market has been recklessly opened up for the inflows of foreign technologies as well as final goods and services for current consumption. Reliance is being placed on the import of proven technologies rather than on the more arduous and risky but also more rewarding indigenous R&D effort. A special variant of brain-drain from India is being developed for software exports. The trained and skilled Indian manpower is being hired by transnational corporations for the production of goods of elitist interest for sale in India and abroad, and running of their sophisticated services, as part of their global operations, at relatively low Indian wages. But in this scheme of things, critical hardware cannot be made in India. There is no transfer of latest technologies to Indian hands either. In the case of joint ventures, a phased programme of indigenisation of the manufacturing process is ruled out and R&D made redundant. It is remarkable in this
context that a reputed journal with high
progressive-pragmatic credentials in the past has gone to
the extent of arguing that India will not only gain from
supplying IT inputs to the rest of the world but also
from supplying personnel to carry out the jobs of the
globes back offices. It further argues that
traditional caste, culture and Macaulay have
created in India the worlds largest army of
efficient clerks. There is also enough entrepreneurial
talent to organise the clerks into outfits that seek out
and perform the worlds back office work. This
is indeed a sickening line of reasoning. |
Of angles,
angels and astrologers EVERYTHING seemed to go perfect with my friend and yet he was in panic. He was haunted by the fear that some such thing was imminent as might leave him in utter penury and thus necessitate a real hard struggle to keep the wolf from the door. His problem was that a palmist had predicted his dying in harness. Inevitably, he visited a renowned astrologer. Of course, youll die in harness, but that is only because you are going to have excellent health in old age and that will keep you active till the end. My friend felt relieved, grateful as well as intrigued. When he told me about this, I narrated to him that story about the two wise men of the east whose interpretation of their kings dream earned them such drastically different fortunes. One of them was hanged when he said that the dream forebode great misfortune kings seeing dead bodies of his children and grandchildren. On the other were bestowed top honours and awards when he declared that the dream implied kings living for more than a hundred years! The real point in the twin tales is not the ambiguity inheriting soothsaying but relativity governing the world of human affairs. Witness another storythis time without involving any astrologer. A poor, old guy felt so miserable when his young wife started spending all her time with a rich paramour to such an extent that she was rarely at home. Completely shattered, he was disconsolate. But, one day, to the great surprise of all, he was found in an extremely jovial mood. When asked the reason, he declared that he had learnt to view things in a new perspective. I used to feel so bad that my wife was living with another man; now I feel, instead, that a rich mans beautiful beloved comes occasionally to visit me an ugly old thing though I am. Perhaps the Bard had also the same change in outlook in mind when he had declared that nothing was either good or bad but thinking made that so. Indeed, in this world littered with angularities, angle it is that matters. A corollary of the
Shakespearean aphorism is to be had in another popular
sayingthat one mans meat might be another
ones poison. Recently a young man visited our home
with an invitation to his wedding. When he introduced
himself as the new pujari of the temple next street, my
octogenarian uncle took him into an effusive embrace.
Oh, so you are the sweet creature that plays the
records of the bhajans and scriptures in the morning.
Thanks, my dear, thanks for affording that Amritvani to
an old, invalid man like me right in his bed. You are
doing great service to the community. Its because
of angels like you that the world is still intact. May
you live long, my son. May God bless you with joy, glory,
prosperity! Overwhelmed, the young man touched
uncles feet before leaving. In his excitement, he
failed to notice the scowls on the faces of the rest of
the family. Hardly had he stepped out when my cousin
burst forth: So this is that devil who wakes us up at 4
a.m.? The damned fool has no civic sense. Service to
community? Service, my foot! He is an anti-social rogue
a public nuisance. Everybody in the locality is
cursing him. Sure, hell rot in hell. What will one
mans blessings do against the curses of so
many? |
Grand
alliance differs over leader THE proposed grand alliance of anti-Communist parties in West Bengal is beset with leadership problems even before its formation. The mahajot or grand alliance, proposed by Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee to overthrow the Left Front coalition ruling the State for 23 years, has generated much enthusiasm amongst the opposition parties the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but differences over the leadership have created fissures already. Apart from the problem of bringing together the Congress and the BJP, Mamata Banerjee, the moving force behind the alliance and the only common ground between the two ideologically opposite parties, will have to decide on the question of leadership. The BJP, which has been the Trinamools electoral ally in the last two national elections, does not object to the Congress joining the alliance but has refused to accept that partys state President, A.B.A. Ghani Khan Chowdhury, as the leader. Talk of Chowdhury heading the alliance for next years State Assembly elections gained ground after Mamata herself said she was willing to see the veteran Congress leader as the chief ministerial candidate. Mamata has shared warm relations with Chowdhury since her early days in the Congress, which she left in 1997 to form the Trinamool. According to BJP state unit president Asim Ghosh The working mechanics of the proposed alliance are not yet ready. In such a situation Mamata Banerjee has announced who will head the alliance. She should have spoken to us as we are their allies. The Trinamool is the bigger of us two, so we would like to see Mamata leading the mahajot. Ghosh said the BJP is not prepared to accept anyone from the Congress as the leader. BJPs Tapan Sikdar, the Union Minister of State for Communications, is also unhappy with hints being dropped about the alliances leader much before its actual formation. Moreover, the Assembly elections are nearly a year away. So why is the question of who would be the alliances Chief Minister arising now? he asked. Political analysts say the BJP is opposed to a Congress member heading the alliance as it could not afford to hand over the credit of dislodging the Left Front to the party that is its rival on the national stage. The BJP is still hoping the Congress will finally not join the grand alliance and instead a faction might break away from the parent party to ally with the anti-Communist platform. Should that happen, it would be a major jolt to the Congress and a big gain for the BJP. The rift within the state Congress over joining the alliance has widened with the section led by party Working President Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi still opposing the move to be part of any formation that includes the BJP. The majority faction, led by Chowdhury and Somen Mitra, however, says ground realities indicate that fighting the Communists is more important for the time being than combating communalism in West Bengal. The Congress brands the BJP a communal party. Mitra, who was instrumental in convincing a major section of the state Congress that the grand alliance was a good idea, says that the party had to join the formation because it was the will of West Bengals people that the Communists be dislodged. And this is only possible if an alliance is formed against them (the Communists). More than communalism, the atrocities of the Communist government are of paramount interest to the states people, he said. On the question of the
BJPs opposition to Chowdhury leading the grand
alliance, Mitra said that depended on the Trinamool.
Even the BJP thinks the Trinamool should have the
biggest say in the alliance. So Mamata Banerjee has
herself said Ghani Khan could lead the alliance. We have
not demanded that the alliances leader be from our
party, he said. India Abroad News
Service |
Experts
cautious about IT Bill NOT everyone in Indias Silicon Valley is upbeat about the Information Technology Bill, 1999, to be discussed in Parliament next month. While agreeing that the bill would ensure a useful framework for e-commerce, experts who gathered in Bangalore for a two-day conference on IT and the law, said it could hamper the IT industry by introducing unnecessary official interference. Its good from the point of view of setting up a legal framework. But everything else (in the bill) I think is a waste of time, said R. Ramaraj, Managing Director of Satyam Infoway Limited, Indias first private Internet Service Provider (ISP), speaking at the conference organised by the National Law School of India University here. He said recognition of electronic signatures was a good aspect and he was also hopeful of electronic board meetings gaining legitimacy. But he warned: Once you put in more and more laws, government involvement will increase, and I cant think of any politician who wont say impose more taxes. Attorney at law Sajan Merianda, a Bangalore-based legal consultant on IT issues, criticised the bill as it was likely to focus more on procedural aspects. Instead, he said, it was silent on what could be done to protect Indian firms from those firms (in the West) who will bombard one with technology patents from outside. Merianda suggested area-specific laws for the IT sector, rather than a system where we have one law doing everything with IT. Separate laws could have been passed to help Indian firms with technology patents, tackling confidentiality of information issues and concerns like pornography, he suggested. Electronic documentation and evidence are issues which could have been brought in later, he said and blasted the bill for utter disregard for confidentiality and privileged communication. Would you appreciate any authority getting into your hard-disk and going into what mails you sent? It is in violation of constitutional rights, since the right to life under Article 21 has been held to include the right to privacy, Merianda added. Said Gopi Garge, Director of Exocore Consulting: I strongly disagree that the IT Bill should have the powers to examine everybodys (e-mail) messages. Why presume that everyone is a malicious hacker? He agreed that it was essential to have laws to build up a framework for acceptable e-commerce. But why should there be laws to regulate the Internet, asked Garge. Most speakers at the conference were critical of the Bill, though some did feel that without regulation the Internet would witness jungle raj on the Net. Ramaraj of Satyam questioned the need for the Government to decide on encryption technologies. Now, the level of encryption is to be determined by the government. Do I leave all these (encryption) keys with some official body (which could be open to misuse), asked Ramaraj. Pointing to another aspect, Ramaraj said, Cyber laws should be technology-independent. Or else, by the time the law is written, technology will have changed. Then all of us will be sitting before Government offices, instead of doing our business. Cable grew in this
country because there was no law. IT services also grew
because there was no minister (for the same), said
Ramaraj. Instead, he said, the government needed to
merely focus on solving disputes arising from e-commerce,
while the market could well decide how business ought to
be done. India Abroad News Service |
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