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| Wednesday, March 22, 2000, Chandigarh, India  
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A
barbaric act
POPULATION
POLICY |
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| New generation defies Mao by S.P. Seth TWO issues featured prominently at the recent National People’s Congress in China. First, Taiwan’s reunification was emphasised, with warning to Taipei to desist from any move towards independence. According to Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, “We will not sit idly by and watch any serious separatist activity aimed at undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, such as those advocating the ‘two state theory’ or the ‘independence of Taiwan’.” Indeed, Beijing now insists that reunification cannot wait indefinitely.
Yesterday
and today
Will
PM be able to meet RSS challenge?
March 22, 1925
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THE massacre of 35 Sikhs in south Kashmir on Monday night makes the brutal designs of Pakistani rulers clear. Heavily armed militants descended on Chattisinghpura village near the temple town of Mattan in Anantnag district. They called members of Sikh families out and shot them dead. The little hamlet has 250 families of this community. Militancy in the area is about 11 years old but so far Sikhs have not been targeted as a community. Pandits were made to leave their hearth and home, making their ouster a heart-rending affair. Muslims, who believed in composite culture and secularism, were arbitrarily identified and murdered. Even women and children were not spared. Recently, a number of truck operators were killed. The victims were chosen on the basis of their religious faith. One feels sad to say that those killed after being belaboured were Hindus. There is no point in waiting for some party or group to own the responsibility for this cowardly act. Islamabad’s print and electronic media have gone berserk and celebrated the heinous crime committed by their agents. The think tanks in New Delhi and Srinagar had predicted such occurrences during the visit of US President Bill Clinton. The motive is to get publicity for the ISI and other arms of the Pakistani warlords. People living in the Indian part of Punjab have predictably expressed their strong feelings against the perpetrators of barbarism. The Pakistani Chief Executive, General Pervez Musharraf, has assured the forces of instability full support. President Clinton has condemned the murders of the Sikhs in strong words. It has been said on his behalf that he, and all Americans in fact, have given vent to their sense of outrage on the dastardly mass murders. They have expressed their profound sympathies “for the members of the families of those who have been eliminated by mercenaries. One would like to tell
Mr Clinton a thousand stories of the consequences of
Pakistan’s proxy war. But will the truth in the
tales ever disturb the conscience of the American
leaders? The American people do not necessarily live by
their government’s political calculations and the
idea of power equations in South Asia. A series of blasts
and attacks on military posts have taken place on the
Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC) during the
recent months. But India, undeterred, has kept a constant
vigil and many of the plans of the Musharraf set-up have
been foiled. Large amounts of RDX, fake currency and arms
have been recovered. Pakistan, say knowledgeable
analysts, is deeply involved in fomenting and supporting
terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. After visiting India and
acquiring first-hand knowledge of the Pakistani mischief,
the US President should tell General Musharraf to stop
all terrorist activities forthwith. American officials
often make ambiguous statements. Some of these tend to
favour Pakistan even when it is clearly in the dock. Some
Americans talk of Pakistani actions and Indian responses
in an unnecessarily balancing manner. “Will there be
a major war?” This question is on the lips of the
policy-framers of the USA now in New Delhi. It is time
for Mr Clinton and his senior assistants to tell the
Pakistan Chief Executive in no uncertain terms that war
is a two-way street. India has never attacked Pakistan.
But it has fought and won three major wars thrust upon it
by the neighbour. If one remembers the Pakistani mischief
in Kargil last year, one comes close to Pakistan’s
warlike intentions. This is the time for Mr Clinton to
talk tough with Pakistan which harbours Afghan terrorists
and other trouble-makers, who have paved their path to
Washington and US embassies elsewhere with sinister
intentions. |
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THE hopes ran high; many veterans remembered the all-embracing and binding agreement India signed with the erstwhile Soviet Union on August 9, 1971, as the war of independence in Bangladesh was about to enter the crucial phase. That agreement imparted a dramatic turn to this country’s foreign policy and internal strength and as later events proved, also damaged this country’s image in some of the western democracies. President Clinton and Prime Minister Vajpayee did have a second chance to radically restructure bilateral relations, inject dynamism in government-to-government cooperation and specify the areas of fast economic growth like energy investment, technology transfer and environment. Frankly, all these find a place in the vision statement, which the signatories have claimed to be the architecture of future ties and a charter for the new century. It could indeed have been all that but obviously the long years of estrangement and pockets of lingering ideological differences have held back the two countries from going full blast at rebuilding the relations. This is not to deny the gains, substantial as they are, from the state visit of the US President. The dollar kingdom has perceptibly shifted its stand on three vital questions closer to this country’s long-held position. One, it no more talks of India rolling back the nuclear programme but of restraint and building that self-control into government policy. It is satisfied with India’s strict control on production of fissile — nuclear bomb-making — material and the total ban on its export. This takes care of the US obsession with nuclear non-proliferation, sort of. The visiting delegation has also shifted, however marginally, its earlier hard position on Kashmir. President Clinton spelt out four desirable courses of action by both India and Pakistan on what he wants to be done in Kashmir. He has tilted heavily in favour of this country. He wants restraint by both along the border; two, respect for the sanctity of the line of control; three, early revival of bilateral dialogue; and, four, he has termed the military escalation as tragic. Given his earlier praise for this country’s enduring experience with democracy, the tilt is all too obvious. But he should adopt this firm attitude in Islamabad too if he is to make an impact. The inconvenient
questions were shovelled under obscure words and
formulations. Mr Vajpayee said the two delegations had a
“candid” discussion, though he described the
talks as frank and friendly. This is diplomatic shorthand
for sharp differences of opinion on key issues. So, it is
reasonable to assume that the two parties sparred
vigorously on nuclear non-proliferation and Kashmir. In
the process, the two sides did not spend much time on
designing in detail the architecture of bilateral
relations in the new century. There are scraps of outline
and what the official sources claim as the contours of
the charter for the future. But that is wholly
unsatisfactory. The television channels too were
irritably silent on the statement of vision, not wanting
to wade into a matter they are not competent to handle.
By evening perhaps they would assemble a panel of experts
— all familiar faces — to dish out the expected
fare. But the hoopla over President Clinton’s visit
to India has obscured his somewhat unhappy one-day visit
to Dhaka. He failed to visit Joypura, a model village,
and disappointed the simple-minded villagers. As a small
compensation a few residents were carted to Dhaka to have
a personal darshan of him. The more hurting snafu came
when he skipped the mandatory visit to the war memorial,
honouring the millions who died in the freedom fight in
1971. The highly emotional common Bengalis saw in this an
unacceptable attempt to please Pakistan which is
responsible for the deaths. On the top of it all, Mr
Clinton received a stiff lecture from host Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina on the need for doing much more than the
USA is doing at present to stand by democratic forces. On
the eve of his visit to military-ruled Pakistan it is a
stark snub, but the great communicator survived it. |
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SAURAV GANGULY had given a glimpse of his leadership qualities in 1998 in Toronto against the West Indies. He was asked to lead the Indian cricket team in the absence of Sachin Tendulkar, who was nursing a back injury. Of course, the fact that the West Indies is no longer the super power of international cricket helped India win the one-day series. Even a novice may have led India to victory against a depleted West Indian team. What made the tournament memorable for Indian fans was the intelligent handling of the resources at Ganguly’s disposal. Part of the credit for the impressive performance of Vijay Bharadwaj, a rookie all-rounder from Karnataka, which helped him lift the man-of-the-series award should go to the Prince of Calcutta. Now as regular captain he helped India rediscover the will to win the one-day home series against South Africa. In the first of the five matches the blazing start given by the South African openers should have resulted in a total in excess of 350 runs. Through intelligent bowling changes the new captain was able to restrict the visitors to a score of 301. By winning the Kochi game India became the only team in international cricket to have successfully chased targets of 300 plus runs twice. It came close to setting up a unique hat-trick of overhauling 300 plus targets, twice against the same team, in the same tournament, when it fell short by 11 runs of the South African total of 320 in the fifth game in Nagpur on Sunday. The return of Mohammad Azharuddin and Ajay Jadeja to the team too contributed in substantial measure to the success against the Proteas, the second best one-day side in international cricket. But a cricket captain,
to be successful, should be prepared to take risks and
experiment and take the rap if the gamble fails. In
Toronto Ganguly showed that he was willing to stick his
neck out by defying the rule book. In the current series
too Maharaj, as Ganguly is fondly called by the
Calcuttans, left no scope for doubt that had he not
played cricket he may have been running a successful
casino. Who other than a daring skipper would have had
the audacity to use Rahul Dravid, known more for his
elegant batting and occasionally keeping wickets, as a
bowler? Surprisingly, the batsman from Karnataka did not
betray the confidence the captain showed in his hitherto
unknown ability to bowl. What Ganguly seems to have done
is make each member of the team start believing in
himself and understand the value of positive thinking.
The Indian team members may have even surprised
themselves, as they did their countless fans, by
discovering the collective will to successfully chase
even seemingly daunting targets. Victory in the three
games which helped India clinch the series was achieved
while chasing targets! But India still has a long way to
go to be counted among the best in the world. The absence
of quality allrounders and an incisive bowling attack was
what made Ganguly toss the ball to Dravid. The fitness
and fielding levels of the players too need attention.
Saddled with these shortcomings, it was indeed an amazing
change in the attitude of the team which had lost the
two-Test series to South Africa without even a semblance
of a fight. But the best news for global cricket was the
return to form of Tendulkar. The glint in his eyes while
batting, bowling or fielding showed that the Little
Master is ready to return to the summit of cricket from
where he had slid briefly while leading the Indian team. |
POPULATION
POLICY THE Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations had announced that India arrived at one billion population mark by mid August, 1999. However, according to Government of India’s official estimate, India’s population as on March 15, 2000, afternoon stood at 998,97,9120. This is according to the population clock maintained by HMT on behalf of the Government of India at the AIIMS, New Delhi. However, it won’t be long before we reach the official 100 crore level as India’s population goes up on an average, by about 42,000 every day. India, therefore, adds a child every two seconds and this is certainly the highest birth record today for any country in the world. The National Population Policy recently announced truly demonstrates Gunnar Myrdal’s oft-quoted description of India as a soft state. The policy formulations do not constitute a policy but only a series of options placed before the targeted rural masses who do not care to know what they are about. Life goes on as usual for them. The emergency excesses in the field of family planning, especially in the Hindi heartland, had left a frightening legacy from which the politicians, irrespective of party affiliations, are not willing or bold enough to look for a strict and enforceable population policy. They are not prepared to take any risk since electoral politics seems to be against it. The population propositions are on a par with the other Central and State policies on subsidies, supply of free electricity and water to all farmers, including the richest farmers of Punjab, not taxing rich agricultural farmers, and not compelling rural families to send their children to schools. Such examples can be multiplied. Economically, India is already lagging so far behind most countries of Asia, not to speak of the West, that such half-hearted attempts will not help at all. Where does India stand in the comity of nations? The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) had in 1999 published figures on the social and economic indicators which constitute the Human Development Index. Of the 27 countries of East, North East, South East and South West Asia, only five — Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia and Nepal — are below India’s figure of 0.451 in the HDI scale of 0 to 1. China’s figure is 0.650 while the highest in the Asia region is that of Japan with 0.940. India with its population of 100 crore ranks next to China only in population figures with its mass of 127 crores. The fertility rate, representing an average number of children born to women during their life time, is 3.0 in India while in China it is 1.8. Our population growth rate has come down from 2.2%, which prevailed for over three decades, to 1.60% while it is 0.9% in China. The usage of contraceptives is 83% in China while it is 38.5% in India. Infant mortality rate is 7% in India while it is 4% in China. In the field of literacy, India claims to have reached 64 % at the end of 1999 though international organisations are still sticking to the figure of 52%. Even conceding that India’s literacy has exceeded 60% it is still far behind most nations of Asia. The female literacy rate, especially in the BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and UP) is even worse. The sad aspect is that even by 2051 A.D, the population growth rate in the BIMARU states will continue to be very high, with UP and Rajasthan recording 181% and 130%, respectively, as against Tamil Nadu’s 16%, Kerala’s 26%, and Andhra’s 29%. The crucial point is that family planning is interlinked with literacy, especially of women, and health. If there are no rural health facilities or safe drinking water for a majority of villages in the Hindi heartland it is futile to expect substantial improvement in the population control. On top of all this comes the crucial factor of rural income, especially among the poorest states in the North. The latest authentic figures put India’s poor at 36.3% and the poorest states in India are headed by Bihar with its 56.4% being below the poverty line, Orissa with 48.4%, Madhya Pradesh with 42.6%, and U.P. with 40.9%. The correct figure for Rajasthan is not available. The important point to be noted here is even among those who are below the poverty line, the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (excluding the STs living in the Northeast) are even poorer as their income constitutes only about 70% of the average of what even the poor people get. Sadly it is these sections of people who are not educated or knowledgeable enough to adopt family planning methods or inclined to restrict their family size. Even in urban centres like Delhi we come across people from the lowest strata of society who do not believe in small families nor seriously consider restricting the family size. Among these sections of people there are many instances of wives being abandoned and second wives taken, girls being married off at a very young age, and indulging in similar social aberrations without the slightest fear of social ostracism, much less legal punishment. If the state expects the illiterate men and women in the BIMARU states and elsewhere to restrict their families on the promise of reward or wait for marrying off their boys and girls till they reach the legal age for marriage, or women wait to reach the age of 21 before giving birth to the first child, the expectations are utterly unrealistic, to say the least. Improvement in health, literacy and income standards should come about simultaneously while tackling the problem of population control. The states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Punjab are leading in literacy, health, longevity and rural income. Understandably, there has been a falling birth rate in these states. Kerala is the flag-bearer in this regard which explains why their teachers and nurses are all over the world, not to speak of its labour force in the Gulf countries. The three southern states have recorded a high degree of female literacy with employment of women reaching almost 50% of men. The largest number of infotech personnel abroad is from these three states. All these factors bring about a fall in the birth rate as working couples cannot afford to have more than one or two children. The draft report submitted by Prof M.S. Swaminathan in 1994 has taken nearly six years for producing these directionless, purposeless formulations. We should realise that we do not have much time left if we really want to improve the standard of living of our people, let alone catch up with even countries like Thailand or Malaysia. The Malthusian spectre may not daunt India for the next 25 years, thanks to the pioneering efforts of persons like Prof M.S. Swaminathan but the day of reckoning would come unless the population growth is brought under control. Even with adequate food production, while the state may be able to feed the people, its standard of living would be far behind of what would prevail in other Asian nations, not to speak of the West. The Worldwatch Institute in the US has warned, not without justification, that the principal threat to India may not be military aggression without but the population growth within. the Institute also commented that the Government of India seemed to be already suffering from demographic fatigue. We have seen the budget
priorities for the current year. The defence forces have
been given a massive increase of about Rs 13,000 crores
over last year’s budget allocation. There has been
some marginal increase in the allocations for health and
education but they are like drops in the ocean. India has
the largest number of illiterates, 40 crores, most of
them women, which add to the difficulties in controlling
the population. The nation has to find jobs for more than
50-60 lakhs of young people every year. With a coalition
government at the Centre, which impede adoption of firm
policies in controlling subsidies and non-essential
expenses, there seems to be little scope for generous
funds for social, educational and health sectors. How
long can these crucial factors, which are staring in the
face of the nation be evaded? |
New
generation defies Mao TWO issues featured prominently at the recent National People’s Congress in China. First, Taiwan’s reunification was emphasised, with warning to Taipei to desist from any move towards independence. According to Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, “We will not sit idly by and watch any serious separatist activity aimed at undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, such as those advocating the ‘two state theory’ or the ‘independence of Taiwan’.” Indeed, Beijing now insists that reunification cannot wait indefinitely. Second, Zhu acknowledged “many difficulties and problems” in the way of China’s economic development. He listed some of these: sluggish consumer demand high unemployment, inefficient industries, over-production and so on. He also highlighted the corrosive role of entrenched corruption within the government. On surface, Taiwan, and economic slowdown, are entirely separate issues. But as China’s economic problems become intractable, with rising unemployment and consequent social unrest, there will be greater need to harness nationalism. Therefore, the world will be subjected to more sabre-rattling on Taiwan, now that China’s economy has reached its plateau. China, like the Soviet Union before it, has more or less reached the optimum level of economic growth within a closed political system. As with the Soviet Union from the seventies onward, China too has entered the grey zone of diminishing returns on its investments surrounded by pervasive corruption at all levels. China is caught in a vicious circle. It might not be so apparent now but will increasingly become so in due course of time. With mounting economic difficulties, Taiwan will become the standard bearer of Chinese patriotism, Beijing will practise controlled brinkmanship, though. But if it were to become a regular feature of its policy, it will further damage China’s economic prospects in terms of foreign investments, export trade, technology transfers etc. In short, it will deal a serious setback to China’s modernisation process. As a concrete example, China might miss out on its anticipated membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Another serious economic consequence will be by way of a greater diversion of national resources to the defence sector. China has been hiking its defence expenditure for some years now. Increased military tensions over Taiwan will further add to its defence burden. Inevitably, it will mean greater social and economic dislocation from further contraction of China’s productive economy. Of course, increased defence expenditure might create some alternative employment in the armed forces. But that will not take off the slack in the general economy, and might even create serious distortions. In this situation (growing militancy on Taiwan), how will China’s leadership respond in the medium and long term? In the short term patriotism might subsume immediate problems of economic dislocation. But, over a longer time frame, people will want to see positive outcomes, both in terms of Taiwan’s reunification and economic security. And these might not be forthcoming. Since China’s communist regime is impervious to democracy as an arbiter of national affairs, and with economy going nowhere, it might be tempted to reignite people’s “revolutionary” enthusiasm. In other words, Mao and his thoughts might stage a comeback. Through his disastrous policies, he did keep China energised ideologically even if it cost the country 30 million lives and loss of a decade or two in terms of China’s development. It is significant to note that despite all the havoc Mao caused, including the brutal leadership purges of the cultural revolution, Deng Xiaoping (himself a victim of Mao’s megalomania) characterised him positively for most part. In a 1980 interview with Oriana Fallaci, Deng said, “... In evaluating his (Mao’s) mistakes as well as his merits, we think that his mistakes only rate a secondary place. This means that the contribution he gave to the Chinese revolution cannot be obliterated and the Chinese people will always cherish his memory. Indeed, with the passage of time, and a new generation of China’s youth with no memory and knowledge of Mao’s disasters (they don’t teach this in China), the late chairman appears to be acquiring a divine halo. According to reports, many metropolitan taxis carry his framed image as divine insurance against any evil or misfortune that might befall. Besides, the party leadership discourages a critical evaluation of Mao. Therefore, Mao Zedong and his legend will be easy to resurrect to impart new legitimacy to China’s discredited communist system Like Mao, China’s present rulers have a contemptuous view of the common man. In their view, people can’t be trusted to vote, being fractious and foolish. To Mao, people were like a blank slate where you could write anything. His “revolution” was a vast experiment in social engineering on these “blank pages” (the people) to recreate a society of his own invention (followed in Cambodia by Pol Pot, with even more disastrous results for that tiny country). In a new biography, Mao: A life, its author Philip Short, has this quote from Mao: “China’s 600 million people (population at the time) have two remarkable peculiarities; they are, first of all, poor and secondly blank. That may seem like a bad thing, but is really a good thing ... A clean sheet of paper (China’s ignorant masses) has no blotches, and so the newest and most beautiful words can be written on it, the newest and most beautiful pictures can be painted on it”. Alas, there were no beautiful pictures or words but periodic disasters with millions killed, and many more dislocated and wasted. Contrast Mao’s imagery of China’s “blank” humanity with elite perception of “illiterates” in present-day China. They are still regarded as morons, incapable of thinking and deciding for themselves. According to Liu Ji, a senior member of China’s academic establishment and part of President Jiang Zemin’s brain trust, China’s 200 million “illiterates” do not deserve universal suffrage and political democracy because an “illiterate does not have the ability to choose”. They might as well form “an illiterates’ party and fight everyone else” among the multitudes of other parties that might spring up. Such crass arrogance is at par with Mao’s contemptuous view of his own people. It is nobody’s case
that China will replicate Maoist mayhem. But it is
pertinent to point out that any further erosion of
legitimacy of the communist system for failing to deliver
positive outcomes on economy and patriotism, might easily
relapse into a bunker mentality. And this could spur
dangerous adventures abroad and increased repression at
home. This is already evident in Taiwan. Within the
country, the quasi-religious Falun Gong movement and
other so-called cults are bearing the brunt of the
party’s hard line. |
Yesterday
and today COMPARISONS are always odious and abominable. It is also monstrous to assess the present with experience and blinkers of the past and condemn all that is new. Samuel Johnson warns; “Every old man complains of growing depravity of the world, the petulance and insolence of the rising generation”. But, juxtaposition of Yesterday with Today, if done dispassionately, can be quite educative and rewarding. With this caution in mind, let us take a brief look at some of the more visible changes, like norms, tastes, habits, goals, aspirations of people — between Then and Now. Children of yesterday took to school when about six years old, and they generally went to the one which was the nearest or the most convenient. For today’s children, the nightmare begins at the age of three and public or English-medium school is invariably the destination. Not long ago, parents took delight in narrating to their offspring epic tales of the land, to inspire and exhilarate. The exhortation now is to become smart; to cut corners or circumvent procedure, but somehow reach the goalpost; to make the pile while the going is good. “Get on with life and have a good time” is the dictum. Previously, one bought clothes to cover the body with dignity, acquired a vehicle to reach office in time, and invested in books for pleasure or knowledge. Now, the focus is different — it is to emphasise the figure and flaunt the body; to outsmart a colleague or impress the neighbour; to adorn the bookcase and convey a notion of culture. The compulsion to fulfil a need has been supplanted by the desire to create an image. Sensible reading habits and staid forms of entertainment of the past have yielded place to glossy, soft-porn magazines, racy literature, soap operas. Some of the shows on the big or small screen are, no doubt, extremely innovative; once in a while, exalted literature also appears. However, the general accent is on morbidity, sex, violence and tangled conjugal relationships. Often, the primary aim is to confer on the viewer or the reader vicarious pleasure and voyeuristic gratification. Music of yesteryear possessed aesthetics, melody, rhythm, a kind of ever-lasting appeal and haunting charm. The singer acquired some degree of proficiency after years of painstaking apprenticeship and grinding ritual. No longer! Today’s music is mostly “dhak-dhak,” type, transitory, flimsy, irrelevant, and even irreverent. Every neighbourhood warbler, with the capacity to shake his limbs and swagger his body, passes for an artiste. A generation back, hapless, non-working women remained busy with domestic chores and making things comfortable for the children and the husband. Now, they have an outlet in the shape of “kitty”. It gives them a platform to socialise, to indulge in gossip, flourish their outfits and adornments, exchange confidences, share tricks of the trade to handle the maid-servant or keep the daughter-in law under leash. Kitty party is not the only manifestation of social change. More women are now leaving the backyard of home and are out shopping, displaying their femininity on ads, fashion shows and TV, forcing attention, demanding a role in decision-making, and entering professions traditionally regarded as the preserve of men. Just a few years back, a person’s name, postal address and telephone number established his identity in the world. Now, a whole lot of paraphernalia is tagged on to him — his pager, cellular phone, fax, e-mail, and website. Indeed, these frills have become the defining symbols of one’s station in life, a passport to the exciting world of information technology. One can go on and on.
But, to cut a long matter short, it need only be said
that every situation, every circumstance is, for better
or worse, subject to change — that is the cardinal
principle, the inexorable law. All that a man can do is
to control the direction and content of change. It is
also important that “in our preoccupation with the
past and the present”, as spoke John Kennedy,
“we must not miss the future”. |
Will PM be
able to meet RSS challenge? THE message from Nagpur is loud and clear. The traditional RSS headquarters is going to assert its power and Delhi’s Jhandewala will not be allowed to turn it into an appendage of the BJP’s ruling group. Talks with RSS functionaries who have attended the Nagpur Pratinidhi Sabha bring forth two aspects. First, hereafter Vajpayee will have to handle a changed RSS. Personal pep talks with an amiable Sarsanghchalak will not work wonders any more. Instead, Vajpayee will have to woo a team of determined men led by the new hardliner Sarsanghchalak. The RSS has taken a decision to be more assertive and pro-active in pushing its programmes. Second, while the new RSS team would strive to keep the BJP government going, the onus of resolving the contradictions in the policies and programmes of the two power centres will rest with the latter. Such an attitude will apparently make Vajpayee’s task extremely difficult. Contrary to public perception, the change of guard at Nagpur has been more than routine. True, former boss Rajendra Singh has not been keeping well and wished to hand over the charge to a more energetic colleague. But every time he expressed a desire to retire, the ruling BJP group, especially Vajpayee, persuaded him to stay on. All tricks of the trade was used to delay the succession. The RSS hawks were miffed. Last week, even while the RSS top brass was discussing the modalities of the changeover, those in the PMO informally leaked out stories contradicting any such change at the moment. It is a different matter if those who had lapped up the plant had to regret by the weekend. Possibly, Rajendra Singh himself was aware of the pressures building up from both sides and his helplessness in reconciling the conflicting demands. The ruling BJP group was also ready with its own nominee for the top RSS post. All this was prompted by the acute policy conflict within the RSS parivar and with the ruling group of the BJP. Thus the change of guard also reflected a change of approach. Every one knows that even under Rajendra Singh the hawks in the RSS, especially the powerful outfits like the VHP, Bajrang Dal, Swadeshi Jagran Manch and the BMS have been feeling restless due to the functional curbs imposed on them to help sustain the Vajpayee Government. Leaders of such outfits have been rushing to senior RSS functionaries with stories of functional stifling and “lost opportunities” all over. Some feared that their ineffectiveness would eventually lead to the birth of more reckless independent outfits among the sadhus and communalised sections. Emergence of Shiv Senas in the deep north has been cited as a beginning of this trend. The hawks within the RSS also made it a point to discreetly encourage outfits like the VHP and Bajrang Dal to go ahead with their agenda without being seen as violating the parivar’s mariyada. In fact, the scattered attacks of the Christians have been a mark of protest against the PMO’s political fiat on the RSS outfits. Thus K.S. Sudarshan’s harsh words at the Nagpur session should not be taken as his personal views. They truly represented the collective mood within the parivar. All this accumulated resentment apart, the following factors have contributed to the increasing RSS disillusionment with the government. They are the BJP’s overbearing political interference in the working of the RSS outfits, conviction that the two-year BJP rule had not benefited either its Hindutva outfits or the ruling party itself, an overall degeneration of the political values due to the lust for power and the inability of the RSS to insulate itself from this spreading virus and the pressures from thousands of small businessmen being displaced by the flood of MNC goods. Each of these factors had worked at different levels. The first address of the new chief and the resolutions have amply emphasised the RSS position on each of these issues. Obviously, the immediate provocation has been Vajpayee’s armstwistings on the RSS ban in Gujarat to save his own government. Initially, it was hoped that a statement by Rajju Bhaiyya will persuade the Gujarat leaders to relent. But the Gujarat leaders who were aware of the impending changes in the RSS and the belligerent mood of the new hierarchy, resisted the move. The delegates at Nagpur were aghast at his overbearing action. Almost the entire RSS establishment had also come to the painful realisation that the two-year Vajpayee rule had not benefited the BJP or other Hindutva outfits. Initially, the ruling BJP group had tried to convince the RSS leaders that as proximity to power had obliterated the “political untouchability”, more doses of it would force the allies compromise on the Hindutva agenda. Unfortunately for the BJP, what really happened was that the allies developed more allergy to the RSS communalism. They issued open threats to the BJP on issues like attacks on the Christians, lifting of the RSS ban and Bills curbing the rights of the minorities. Whenever a crisis emerged, BJP politicians argued that the state power would in the long run provide unhindered scope for the RSS to expand. This too did not materialise. On the contrary, the Prime Minister has been constantly using his clout to make the RSS more subservient to the ruling party. As a result, the RSS failed even to conduct its routine work. Under the circumstances, the RSS hierarchy does not visualise any breakthrough in the foreseeable future. Since the BJP itself has met with the stagnation after two years of power, the RSS does not see any possibility of a single-party BJP rule. Both the Lok Sabha and state assembly elections had marked a triumph for the NDA allies, and not the BJP as such. A paper circulated at Nagpur puts the fall of BJP fortunes in black and white. It said that power at the Centre had brought the BJP’s tally in the major northern states of Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, UP, Bihar, and Rajasthan down to 460 out of a total of 1,610. Gujarat is the only state where the BJP rules on its own. The recent assembly elections were dominated by the NDA allies and the BJP suffered jolts everywhere. Exigencies of power have made the BJP give more and more concessions to the allies. This, in turn, has emboldened the NDA allies to demand more and more from the BJP. Constant compromises to keep up the government have made it a prisoner of power lust. It perpetually capitulated the allies without gaining anything in return. The post-Rajju Bhaiyya RSS feels bitter about such unilateral concessions. For Vajpayee, according to them, power is an end in itself. For the RSS, power is a means to spread the Hindutva programmes — not an end in itself. The collapse of the thesis of expansion through power has been succinctly expounded by Sudarshan when he talked of “apparent contradictions” in the BJP Government’s “today’s problems” and the “long-term” programmes of the RSS. He identifies Vajpayee’s three “constraints” as the allies’ pressures, commitments made by the earlier governments and the bureaucracy. “These could be overcome through moulding public opinion, and not through power,” he says and points out that this is the apparent contradiction between the RSS and the BJP. Much of what contained in Sudarshan’s speech and resolutions have the potential of heightening these contradictions. Opposition to privatisation of banking and insurance, sale of shares of core PSUs like Modern Foods, GAILS and IPCL, concessions to the MNCs, demand for dismantling the pro-liberalisation economic advisory council and giving accommodation to “swadeshis” in them, scrapping of the Constitution, “Indianisation” of the Christians and Muslims — each of these demands has the potential of leading to a confrontation if the RSS really presses ahead with them. Watch the excitement and the celebrative mood in the VHP and Bajrang Dal. Within 48 hours, Singhal challengingly announced an early temple construction date. The SJM is drawing up an aggressive programme. The ruling BJP group has launched a frantic lobbying with the RSS leaders to put a break to the promised activism. Ministers and friends close to the hierarchy are deputed on a wooing mission. Aware of this, the new RSS boss has already set up a core group of Rajju Bhaiyya, Moropant Pingle, Seshadri and the office-bearers. Unlike earlier, all crucial decisions would be left to the core group for decision. Apart from giving a high moral authority to the decisions, it will make it more difficult for Vajpayee to reverse them through pep talks. It is too early to speculate on the likely nature of this growing schism within the family. One view is that the RSS pressure may be used by Vajpayee to get a firmer support from the allies. This may or may not happen. But any tendency for an independent course — not to speak of an independent existence — would have a crippling effect on the BJP whose very electoral foundation is built on the RSS cadres. The bitter experience of the mid-80’s should convince the ruling group that the BJP minus RSS is a virtual zero — like the Upanishadical ‘poornasya poornamaadaaya poornameva avashishyate’ (if completeness is taken away from the entity that is complete, it is completeness that remains). As of now it looks the
BJP-RSS relationship is set to head towards the mid-80
position when Vajpayee had tried to give a relatively
more independent existence to the BJP. His ‘Gandhian
socialism’ and egalitarian look for the party had
made the RSS redifine its relationship. The RSS had then
declined to work for the BJP in the elections and the
Vajpayee line ended in a disaster with just two Lok Sabha
members. |
March
22, 1925 THE Legislative Assembly deserves to be congratulated on the vote of censure it passed upon the Government on Friday on account of its opium policy. There were two amendments before the House, one for the omission of the entire opium grant, and the other for a nominal reduction of the grant by Rs 100. Since the object in view was not so much to refuse supply as to condemn the Government’s policy. Pandit Nehru rightly advised the mover of the first amendment on behalf of his party to withdraw his proposal in favour of the other, which being done, the second proposal was carried by 60 votes against 52. This condemnation of the
Government’s policy is perfectly well deserved
because in spite of all that the Government may say,
there is no doubt that there is still enormous
consumption of opium in India, as Pandit Malaviya pointed
out, and that the opium revenue of the Government is
derived largely from the degradation of other countries. |
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