The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Accountant's budget

THE Haryana budget presented in the Vidhan Sabha on Tuesday should be an accountant's delight, considering that it has mainly sought to change various figures while the framework remains almost the same as in the previous years. The dynamism that one would have expected from the first budget of the new millennium is conspicuous by its absence. As has become the norm by now, it imposes no new taxes, thereby earning the “tax-free” title. One reason for this “kind gesture” is that the residents hardly have the capacity to pay more taxes after those imposed in the recent past. But that is no guarantee that levies will not come a few months from now. That is a routine employed often. Similarly, the euphoria over the 39.7 per cent increase in the annual plan, which has raised it to an all-time high of Rs 2,530 crore, is rather premature. It may be scaled down if sufficient money does not come from the Centre. That is what happened last year. An annual plan of Rs 2,300 crore was formulated, which constituted a sharp increase of 61 per cent over that of the previous year. But it was later revised to Rs 1811.16 crore. One positive feature of the budget is that 64.5 per cent of the total amount is to be spent on infrastructure development. Haryana made rapid strides during the initial years of its formation but the growth has stagnated for almost a decade now. The high position it once occupied has been lost, but things are not hopeless. If the allotted money is spent on genuine projects, a turnaround is very much possible.

While the decision not to impose new taxes will be generally welcomed, the fact remains that the rise in the fiscal deficit is a cause for concern. It has already increased to about 5 per cent of the gross state domestic product (GSDP). That is not sustainable. The Finance Minister, Mr Sampat Singh, has tried to justify it by saying that it was not feasible to have zero deficit in a developing economy and that it is even higher in many of the other states. But his arguments are not very convincing. In fact, deficit may be much more because some of the figures mentioned by the Finance Minister are too optimistic. The hope that the application of uniform sales tax will fetch an additional revenue of Rs 75 crore may be tough to convert into reality. The debt liability is as high as 25 per cent of the GSDP. The alarming public debt will have a debilitating impact on development schemes. As it is, there are no new schemes in the budget to ameliorate the lot of the farmers, despite the ruling party's claim to be a party of the kisan. The Finance Minister has promised to ban fresh recruitment and downsize the government. But in the same breath, he has also said that new recruitments will be made wherever necessary. That, in real terms, may mean that new appointments might continue at the same pace at which these were going on so far. So, there is no scope of the government cutting down its administrative expenditure. Under the circumstances, the only remedial measure that can be tried out is better revenue collection, perhaps by tapping new sources.

Army's firmness pays

AS the date of the visit of US President Bill Clinton is coming closer, Pakistan is desperately increasing its attacks on Indian posts across the Line of Control (LoC). Mr Clinton himself has done much damage to the cause of peace in the subcontinent by making confusing statements about his intent and purpose. In India, his visit is being largely welcomed because the event is likely to be spectacularly colourful, if not objectively purposeful. But the US President and his State Department spokesmen have uttered several avoidable inanities. One of these is that the Line of Control (LoC) between the two neighbouring territories is a highly dangerous stretch from where a conflict can be triggered any moment. Triggered by whom? The answer is: by Pakistan. So to address India from Washington almost accusing it of heightening the tension on the LoC is to indulge in propaganda against a self-defending nation. India has deployed forces and weapons according to the requirements of the policy of minimum deterrence. The noise made by the USA and Pakistan about this country's "inclination to aggravate tension against the background of the Kargil episode" is an effort in the direction of creating an atmosphere requiring foreign mediation.

The Indian Army has lost a number of soldiers but hitting back, it has taught the Pakistani Army a few memorable lessons recently in the Jammu region. It would be a mistake to think that the elimination of Gaada, a top Hizbul Mujahideen activist, and several Pakistani agents two days ago was a local success. A three-tier security setup is in place and the Army has reduced the intrusion of Pakistani soldiers and mercenaries. Credit must go to the joint security effort. Union Home Minister L.K. Advani is not quite right in linking the deleteriousness of Leftist extremism elsewhere with the proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan was defeated in three conventional wars. Its fourth ignominy came in the Kargil area. Frustration is growing among the military rank and file in Pakistan. Hardened saboteurs have been sent with sophisticated weapons and currency to Delhi and other parts of this country. In Jammu and Kashmir itself, the Army has guided the paramilitary forces in its crucial operations. It must be remembered that large-scale combing operations in pockets like Anantnag and Doda cannot be carried out by the police and the paramilitary forces. The role of the Army is crucial. Politicians and some over-active human rights units are demoralising the most effective component of the three-tier setup by often criticising its men. The political debate on the role of the Army must be properly conducted by Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah. The hype caused by his opponents is affecting the morale of the sentinels. One has to view the situation in its totality. Pakistan's nuclear facilities in the Chagai Hills, Kahuta and Khushab have strangely waited for an American agency to make them visible to the world. Sargodha has nuclear missiles piled up to cause large-scale destruction in India. Which agency can deal with such dumps of death-dealing weapons? The Army alone! Mr Clinton should have a close look at the websites available in his country before commenting on the military presence in the northern state of India. General Pervez Musharraf's edifice is not equal to the combined military might of the Indian forces. The General's jitters are understandable. But why does the USA resent the Indian Army's legitimate defensive role? The latest successes of our Army are too obvious to be justified or explained.

Cross-voting threat is real

THOUGH a bit late as compared to politician-reformers, industrialists have now formally launched their own liberalisation programme — that is, in the Rajya Sabha election process. Half a dozen of them have gatecrashed into the fray, raising the spectre of cross-voting and the prospect of defeat of party nominees. Among the threatened are Union Minister Ram Jethmalani from Maharashtra and former central Minister Rajashekhara Murthy from Karnataka. The Law Minister is formally an independent but banks on the surplus votes of the Shiv Sena and the BJP. That may not materialise now with the entry of one Mr Jawahar Goel, is a brother of Zee TV tycoon Subhash Chandra. Besides, the Maharashtra legislators enjoy defeating party nominees and anointing well-heeled “outsiders”. Two years back Mr R.D. Pradhan, a hand-picked candidate of the Congress president lost with party men preferring a former Congressman and a newspaper owner. Incidentally, that personal setback sparked a running quarrel between Mrs Sonia Gandhi and Mr Sharad Pawar, leading to the party’s eclipse in the last Lok Sabha elections. This time too the party should be on its guard, since its choice, film actor Dilip Kumar, does not enjoy strong organisational support and Mr Goel is sure to tap political free-lancers.

The real stunner has come from Karnataka and in the form of a dramatic last-minute filing of papers by liquor millionaire Vijay Mallya. It was known that he was lobbying for Congress nomination but his joining the battle as an independent has rattled Mr Rajashekhara Murthy who defected from the Congress to the BJP on the understanding that he would be accommodated in the Rajya Sabha. The Janata Dal (U), an NDA ally, has announced its support to Mr Mallya and those BJP members chafing at the party high command’s generosity to the defector may follow suit. The liquor maker has talked grandly of making Karnataka the best state in the country and has referred to his contribution in the field of industrialisation! His brief personal election manifesto indicates that his negotiation for electoral support is in an advanced stage. In UP too there are two industrialists and a TV personality, Mr Rajiv Shukla, in the fray. Smaller parties and independents have moneyed men wooing them vigorously. The BJP brings its friends in the media to the Upper House from that state and this time also it has fielded a Delhi-based journalist. Surprisingly, its MLAs neither protest against outsiders regularly cutting into their claim nor defy party whip. It may now be different; it has five candidates in the field and needs five additional votes to confidently expect a smooth victory. If Mr Kalyan Singh wills otherwise, the BJP may indeed lose one seat.

The Congress president had to duck pressure from senior leaders but managed to broadly stick to her own rule of denying Rajya Sabha ticket to those defeated in the Lok Sabha elections. At least three veterans from Andhra Pradesh have lost out this way as is party spokesman Ajit Jogi. The exclusion of Mr Sitaram Kesri and Mr Natwar Singh is attributed to inner-party manipulation but Mr Arjun Singh scored over his state-level rival, Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, both in getting the nod and keeping out the PCC chief and a Digvijay loyalist Mr R.K. Malaviya. Mr H.R. Bhardwaj from Haryana will once again fight from Madhya Pradesh for the fourth time, in exception to the Antony committee recommendation that it is retirement time after three terms. There was a time when only eminent individuals entered the Rajya Sabha contest and cross-voting was unheard of except as a public protest against holding back support to highly deserving candidates. India has indeed travelled a long distance during the past five decades.

REDUCING GOVERNMENT FLAB
Time to drain the swamp
by Joginder Singh

DOWNSIZING the government has been the cherished proclamation of all governments whenever they have faced the problem of cutting the flab both in expenditure and the size of the government. The voluntary retirement scheme was introduced in the central public sector in October, 1988. Over the past 10 years the strength of the public sector has come to 19.27 lakh in 1997-98 from 22.14 lakh in 1987-1988. On the contrary, the central government staff strength has increased by at least 40 per cent at the higher levels in the name of the cadre reviews or for preventing stagnation. The scheme was introduced to cut out the deadwood. But its half-hearted and haphazard implementation has not led to either restructuring, or recasting or reinventing the organisations or reducing the cost. Promises seem to have run out of steam.

The government decision to privatise the giant public sector, like Indian Airlines and Modern Foods is a sad admission that the government cannot run the business. It has decided to offload 51 per cent of the Indian Airlines equity by giving 26 per cent to a strategic partner, and the remaining 25 per cent to financial institutions, employees and the public. It is the first step against the policy of keeping dead and dying public sector units on the government’s financial life-support system.

Instead of clearing the mess, the laws made by the government hardly seek to protect its own interest. What kind of a legal system we have in the country when the banks loaning out its own good money collected from the public have to run after the various tribunals to recover the same. There are more than 21,781 cases involving the recovery of bank loans to the tune of Rs 17,922 crore. Out of this, 3,401 cases involve the recovery of amounts of over Rs 1 crore. The amount involved in such cases is approximately Rs 15,993 crore.

Twelve debt recovery tribunals and one appellate tribunal are in position. So far, only 3,774 cases involving an amount of Rs 1,799 crore have been disposed of, which are just 17 per cent of the cases filed with the debt recovery tribunals till March, 1999. Why should the government have an ineffective mechanism for the recovery of its own money? No constitutional or law points are involved if some teeth were provided to the procedures. No country exists for others, and its policies are geared towards protecting its own interests.

The five principles of Panchsheel laid by India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, for dealing with other countries are: (i) mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; (ii) mutual non-aggression; (iii) mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; (iv) equality and mutual benefit; and (v) peaceful existence. The same principles are applicable for good and healthy relations between the neighbours living in any city or street. But in actual practice, they are rarely observed fully.

Everybody is keen to poke and peep into the affairs of others. Everybody wants to give unsolicited advice and run the life of others. But why not put our own house in order in the first place? Why at all should mess be allowed to be created? The flab heavy Indian Airlines has about 22,000 employees out of which those concerned with the actual flying operations include 400 pilots, 35 flight engineers, 680 aircraft engineers, and 3,050 technicians. It has 10,000 non-technical staff, 9,000 semi-skilled and unskilled staff members. It has a large force of 708 employees running canteens, though it gets all meals for serving to passengers from outside.

The Steel Authority of India, another public sector giant, is guzzling the public money at an incredibly fast rate and is expected to end with a loss of Rs 2,000 crore in this financial year. The government has to get moving as the time for words is long past. It is time now to undertake quick radical surgery to put matters right. Otherwise the tendency to hold the entire country to ransom with demands to maintain the status quo will be our undoing.

Each of the governments in the past has been following populist policies, leaving the country impoverished and less powerful. Fortunately, the present government has taken a number of steps to revive the economy. But they have to be backed up with effective governance. The political leadership will have not only to curtail unproductive expenditure through prudent pruning but also take steps for preventing leakages and curbing rampant corruption. One way for dealing effectively with corruption is not keeping the doings and names of the corrupt under the wraps.

Many, including some from the media, have taken umbrage to the Vigilance Commission posting on its website 91 names of the members of the Indian Administrative Service and the Indian Police Service involved in various cases of corruption and misconduct. There is nothing wrong in making public a list of all those against whom the Central Vigilance Commission had recommended action. Incidentally, everything about the corrupt and the dishonest had been kept under the wraps so far. After all any information about such people is part of the action initiated by the government agencies charged with the responsibility to deal with the dishonest and the corrupt. Naturally those involved in cases and complaints would regard the publication of their names as a negation of natural justice, as they have not been convicted so far.

But the fact remains that as early as in November, 1996, a conference of Chief Secretaries had said that to cleanse the services, “the existing procedures and vigilance proceedings should be revamped and rules and legal provisions so amended as to enable immediate and exemplary prosecution and removal of corrupt officers, without giving them any recourse to political protection. But, unfortunately, due to the lop-sided emphasis on new things cropping up everyday, a concerted pursuit of the objectives for the betterment of the administration has been a distant goal.

Determination is also low and the result is the lack of sustained follow-up for any decision taken at even the highest level. Most of the policy pronouncements, including economic liberalisation reforms, empowerment for maximum productivity, expenditure controlling innovations, among others, remain done by halves. If one department of the government takes some steps to loosen the government control in one segment of citizen’s life, another one steps in to make his life miserable by more dos and don’ts, by introducing intricate procedures in the name of reasonableness and fairness.

It is amazing that the government is always emphasising on its employees to function with full coordination and assist the citizens with the quickest possible response. Notwithstanding all the instructions/ orders of the government, the position on the ground remains anything but people-oriented. The responsiveness of the administration to the people who matter is individual-oriented. There is hardly any response where the common good matters, unless powerful interests back it.

The need of the hour for our country, burdened with poverty, illiteracy, backwardness and rampant corruption, is effective and dynamic governance. Good governance and effective management can provide the panacea for all the ills and stumbling blocks in the system. Transformation of the country is possible only when the necessary changes are brought about. We need a revolution of a different kind led by the right-thinking and right- acting leaders, who should not only prepare but also implement a blueprint for future development in a fixed time schedule.

(The writer is a former Director of the CBI).

Budget blues
by Anurag

AFTER Mamatadi and Sinhaji commended their respective millennium budgets to the august House last month, it was the turn of the Lady of the House (LoH) to do her own in her own way in her own house. Last Sunday morning, out of the blue, she rose in all “humility” to discharge this history responsibility, which she claimed I had entrusted her with. Benumbed beyond words, as I looked askance at her, she was set on her course at a breakneck speed.

“The year 1999-2000 has been a year of many challenges.......nevertheless we have met these challenges resolutely, accomplished a great deal and our household is stronger as a result,” she thundered, giving my somnolent self a furtive feeling of deja vu. As I rubbed my eyes and ears she announced: “Thanks to our capital investment decisions of yesteryear, today we are proud owners of a modest house, a small slick car, an airconditioner, a big-size TV, a personal computer and sundry other gizmos and goodies ......... which are so very essential to fillip the “feel good” factor in our happy home.” My twiddling teenagers greeted the LoH with thunderous applause. A glint in her eye made me queasy.

Turning to me, meaningfully, she cautioned: “Today, we must squarely confront and overcome the critical challenge posed by a weakening fiscal situation ......... a long history of high fiscal deficits has left us with huge debt and an evergrowing bill of interest payments .......... we must put our fiscal house in order. This means hard decisions and sacrifices. At the same time we must preserve the intrinsic dynamism of our household ..........”

My heart sank as I squirmed on the sofa. She blabbered her way, on and on.

“Hold on, hold on, “I said squeamishly. I knew about the housing loan, the car loan and the PC loan which I had taken a few years ago, but did not have the foggiest idea of the other debts and the evergrowing interest bills, gosh! I gasped to see everyone smiling in one’s sleeves. “Tell me, what more do you have up your sleeves?” I deigned disbelievingly.

“Dear hubby, dei gratia, I am running this household far more efficiently than your worthy Finance Minister is running this country. That all these years you could afford to be blissfully unaware of the tricky intricacies of running a household speaks for itself. Shouldn’t you all give me credit, no pun, for this splendid success?” She valiantly vindicated herself.

Taking the interruptions in her stride, like our FM, she reverted to the budget mode and assuming pontificatory posture, intoned: “We must raise new resources rather than resort to high cost borrowing. We ought to bring down our fiscal deficit to zero. Now let’s look at this Venn diagram which illustrates where from the money comes and whereto the money goes.”

I held my breath and scanned the frightening figures. “So you mean to say that we are living beyond our means,” I said schoolboyishly.

My son who was intently listening to us so far suddenly got up to produce an old newspaper copy which the LoH had supposedly kept ready for reference. This carried a pocket-cartoon which portrayed sleuths sneaking a look at an officer’s apartment and wondering as to how that honest officer managed to live within his known sources of income. This they decided to investigate into!

A metaphor of our times indeed.

The war against “hidden killers”
by A. Balu

EVERY 22 minutes someone, somewhere in the world steps on a landmine. Many of the cases occur in isolation and are never reported. More than 50 per cent of the victims die from landmine explosions. Worldwide, there are an estimated 300,000 living victims, but those numbers do not include the millions of family members who are also affected. There are roughly 26,000 new victims every year.

This disturbing scenario of the global landmine crisis was presented recently at the United Nations by two American civilian victims, Mr Jerry White and Mr Ken Rutherford, co-founders of the Landmines Survivors Network, which has Queen Noor of Jordan as its patron. They, along with two other World War-II veterans, also Americans, narrated their own stories of loss of limbs in landmine explosions, while calling on governments around the world to join the International Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and On Their Destruction, already signed by 137 countries and ratified by 91 States.

Among the delinquents are three permanent members of the UN Security Council — the United States of America, Russia and China, India is also in the distinguished company. And so is Pakistan. India’s reluctance so far to sign the treaty stems from the strategic situation in the region and the tensions along its border with Pakistan. India does not, however, export the mines or deploy them except for the protection of its territorial integrity.

To highlight the urgent need for swift positive action on the part of the USA, a petition from victims in 17 countries was delivered to American embassies on March 1—the first anniversary of the convention’s entry into force. The appeal to President Clinton to join the Convention has been signed by more than 1300 victims.

The Convention, which was signed in Ottawa in 1997, became binding last year, more quickly than any other international treaty in history. Since then, the movement against anti-personnel mines has gained considerable momentum. According to Ms Jody Williams, who (as coordinator), along with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, was the co-recipient of the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize, since the signing of the Convention there has been a significant decrease in the number of victims in countries with high levels of “mine contamination”.

Some 16 countries are currently producing anti-personnel mines or reserve the right to do so, including the USA and Singapore. But 38 countries have ceased production altogether. Globally, more than 12 million mines have been destroyed from the stockpiles of more than 30 nations. Still the number of landmines in various countries’ stockpiles are “frighteningly high”, according to the international organisation Human Rights Watch.

In the recent past, the estimated number of mines in the ground has been reduced from 100 million to 60 to 70 million, but more than 250 million were estimated to be in the stockpiles of 108 countries. China alone accounted for some 100 million mines. The Russian Federation had some 60 to 70 million mines, Belarus tens of millions, and the USA about 11 million.

The USA has so far paid only lip-service to the anti-mines treaty, saying it respects the Ottawa process and wants to continue working with it. Washington’s alibi is that the “unique responsibilities” of the USA for international security have not permitted it to sign the treaty. It is the same old argument on the basis of which the USA seeks to justify its ambivalence on the nonaligned movement’s proposals for universal total nuclear disarmament while pressurising new entrants to the nuclear club like India to sign the NPT and the CTBT.

The international campaigners against landmines cast doubts on the US sincerity about its intention to sign the treaty in 2006, if it found suitable alternatives to anti-personnel mines. They point out that the USA has upgraded its B-I bombers to deliver anti-personnel mines. More disturbingly, they point out, the Pentagon has planned to upgrade the Gator anti-personnel mines in 2005 by providing it with a wind-corrected munition dispenser which would make delivery more accurate. The pertinent question that is being asked by anti-mine campaigners is: why would a system be upgraded in 2005 if it is to be abolished in 2006?

The irony of the US position is that it is reserving the right to use anti-personnel mines in joint operations of NATO, although 17 of NATO ‘s 19 members have signed the Ottawa Convention, which does not allow its signatories to support violators. Besides the USA, Turkey is the only other NATO member which has not signed the Ottawa Convention.

The UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, who while handling the Department of Peace-Keeping Operations, had seen at first-hand the “appalling misery” inflicted by landmines, has in a number of addresses and statements stressed that the elimination of landmines has become truly a global cause, propelled by the demand of citizens everywhere. On the first anniversary of the entry into force of the treaty the other day, Mr Annan called on those who have not signed the treaty to accede without delay so that it may achieve universalisation as soon as possible. But such calls are unlikely to impress or influence the “Big Three” — the USA, Russia and China — to fall in line. The only positive signal, as the mine victim Jerry White told reporters in New York, is that there is strong collaboration between civil society and governments to “ensure that one day we can walk in a mine-free world” — a goal for which the late Princess Diana worked hard through her anti-mines activism that gave a boost to the worldwide campaign for full implementation of the Ottawa Convention.

‘End social sanction’ against girl child
By Madhu Gurung

YOU will not spare a second glance for 35-year old Kamla Mehra. She looks like any middle-aged Indian housewife, waiting at the crowded Lajpat Nagar bus stop for her children to return from school.

The bus arrives and two excited figures — a girl in long plaits and a cherubic six-year-old boy lurch out and hurl themselves at her. Kamla smiles and hugs the boy to her bosom. She pats the girl affectionately enough and hands her brother’s bag to carry, while she holds her son’s hand and leads him home. The boy talks ceaselessly, basking in her attention.

He will never know his mother’s secret, nor will she ever tell him. He will never know that a sister had been killed in his mother’s womb to make way for him.

Kamla is just a face in the crowd — one amongst the nameless sea of women who undergo tests to detect the sex of the foetus and selectively about if the tests show it’s a girl. And as India’s sex ratio shows a steady deficiency of women, selective abortions carry on for the much-hankered son.

In nearly every society about 105 live males are born for every 100 live females (the international sex ratio is 105). Demographers explain that this is so because mortality is higher for male babies. Biologically, girl babies are stronger.

But in India the sex ratio has been above 104.7 since 1921. It was 107.5 in the 1971 census, dipping nominally at 107.1 in 1981, only to go up to 107.9 in the 1991 census. Historically, the social practice of infanticide — the killing of girls at birth — was considered the reason for this phenomenon.

The British detected the deficit of women way back in 1881 when they first conducted the census.

In a book “From Independence Towards Freedom,” Dr Leela Visaria points out that the deficit of women has risen from 4 million in 1901 to 32 million in 1991. This progressive deficit of women can be seen from the masculine ratio, which has increased from 1029 men (per 1000) in 1901 to 1079 men in 1991.

The deficit of women is more noticeable in the urban population than the rural population — a factor which is frequently attributed to male migration from the rural to the urban areas. However, the deficit has now percolated down to the rural areas as well, indicating an overall decrease of women in the country. The deficit of women is smaller in the southern states than in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Mr Satish Agnihotri, an expert on the sex ratio, calls the land rich states of Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh the “Bermuda Triangle,” where girls go missing.

District-level data of the 1991 census has been collated by Dr Ashish Bose in the reference book “Demography Diversity of India.” He points out that the sex ratio in UP is 882 females per 1000 males; in Punjab it is 888 females and in Haryana it is the lowest at 874 females.

Ironically, the phenomenon of preference for son has reached alarming proportions in India’s most prosperous states, rather than the most “backward” ones.

Thanks to the green revolution in these states, agriculture became remunerative in the 1960s. Besides, as prices of real estate escalated in industrial areas or areas adjoining cities, farmers began selling their land and became well off.

The new-found prosperity and growing education has not diminished the patriarchal bias for sons. A son is still the man who will carry on the family name and take care of the old parents. The girl child is just a pebble in the dust, neglected or simply discarded.

Technologies of amniocentesis, chorion biopsy and now ultrasound are being used to detect the sex of the foetus and selectively abort the female child. These tests, most demographers agree, have a far-reaching effect on the sex ratio.

India’s capital city has not escaped the biases of the North Indian hinterland.

Dr Saraswati Raju and Prof Mahender Kumar Premi of the Centre for the Study of Regional Development at Jawahar Lal Nehru University studied records of three hospitals in Delhi, where 35,000 births occurred between 1987 and 1992, and found that the sex ratio went up from 106 in the initial year to 109 in the end year.

Dr Raju also tried to see the problem geographically by grouping the northern and southern states into two halves and comparing the census figures from 1901 to 1991 across the Indian map. “I found the pattern of declining female sex ratio had spread from the north to the south. What was disturbing was the decline in the female sex ratio in societies where no previous history of such discrimination existed,” he stated.

Dr Pravin and Leela Visaria’s findings on the caste-wise demographic deficiency of women challenge many preconceived notions people have about castes and communities.

They point out that despite the tremendous social, political and economic advantages enjoyed by India’s caste Hindu population, their record when it comes to prejudices against women is the worst.

In sharp contrast the least discrimination against girls exists among the marginalised, impoverished Scheduled Tribes. Tribal women enjoy a fair amount of equality with men. However, the Scheduled Castes, they have copied the higher caste groups’ discriminatory treatment of their daughter.

Anti-female prejudices are not as blatant among predominantly urbanised and better educated Jains and Christians. The Buddhists have a lower deficit than the Hindus and the Muslims. Overall, the deficit of women is the lowest among the Christians and the highest amongst the Sikhs.

Much has been written about the reasons for the deficit of women. Demographers agree that undercounting of girl children and widows could be valid reasons. But these do not account for the entire deficit.

The other obvious reason is female foeticide. This is reflected in the growing proportion of boys. The sex ratio of children till the age of 4 recorded in the 1991 census in rural and urban India was 104.3 and 106.0 boys (per 100). But in Punjab and Haryana group up to 14 years had 110 boys.

On the eve of his retirement as Director of Health Services in Punjab, Dr Puran Singh Jassi admitted that Punjab’s sex ratio was alarming. While reviewing the birth register of 1997, he found that Punjab’s sex ratio had dipped, with 751 girls born per 1000 males that year. “If we visualise that some female births had not been entered, even then the sex ratio cannot be more than 800, which is far below the All-India sex ratio of 927 females per 1000 males, Dr Jassi asserts. He calls Punjab’s sex ratio, “suicidal and a recipe for social chaos”.

Much has been written about why Indians want fewer girls. The most obvious reason is that girls have to be married off and that entails huge expense on ceremonies and dowry. Dowry demands are growing with rising consumerism. The dowry trap pushes many families into debt. Rural families are forced to sell land, urban poor resort to selling their houses and moving to slums.

Inevitably, girls are seen as an unwelcome drain on family finances. In rural Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh farmers and daily-wage workers take loans and make their wives undergo scanning and selective abortions to ensure they bear only sons. The calculation is clear: better to pay a little now than to pay a huge dowry. Despite the Anti-dowry Act the practice continues as society thinks that girl’s parents must pay to “unburden” themselves of their daughters.

Girls who escape being aborted are frequently subjected to neglect. Lack of nourishment ensures that despite their biological superiority over boys many girls die in infancy. If they are hardy enough to withstand neglect, they must suffer a lifetime of discrimination by the family and society. Girls are given less nourishment, educated less and made to work long hours. As they grow into adolescence, having remained on the fringes of malnutrition, many girls are anaemic and too weak to produce healthy children. Married early, they undergo repeated pregnancies, miscarriages and abortions to produce sons.

The premium on the boy child gives surreptitious sanction to female foeticide and is the most difficult barrier to breach. When the Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act came into force in 1994, the tests went underground. Five years down the line it is obvious that the Act has made no headway.

“It’s all right to legislate but what about execution? Who is going to monitor whether the tests are still being carried out?” asks Dr Mira Shiva of the Voluntary Health Association of India. Not a single case has been registered by the Punjab Health Department, the monitoring agency.

“How can we take punitive action when we have received no complaints? People have no respect for law. Test results are given verbally by doctors. Who is to be punished, the doctor, the couple, the in-laws or the society at large?” questions Dr Jassi.

Clearly the problem is social sanction for the killing of the girl child. The law cannot tackle a problem of this dimension. Unless social attitudes change drastically — and there seems no sign of it — the 2000 census will register a further drop in the number of girls born in India.

This is among a series of investigative pieces by Madhu Gurung of the Women’s Feature Service. Gurung investigated the decline in the sex ratio and its links with female foeticide, with the aid of a National.

Foundation for India fellowship in 1998-1999. — Women’s Feature Service