E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Friday, March 26, 1999 |
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weather n
spotlight today's calendar |
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A
repair budget
AN
AVOIDABLE CONTROVERSY China
and Asian economic gloom |
The
mad world of capital Remembering
Hemingway
Public
roads closed against non-caste men |
Pune shows the way IT is becoming increasingly clear that most Indians want to live life by the rule book rather than get caught in the seemingly all-pervasive web of corruption and crime in high places. Once in a while, when someone with the muscle to take on the corrupt system appears on the scene, they go more half way in support. This seems to be the message from Pune where the protest against the transfer of the Municipal Commissioner, Mr Arun Bhatia, has taken the shape of a mass movement. Mr Bhatia had not completed even a week in his new assignment when he was transferred out as Commissioner of Archives in Mumbai. He must have done something extraordinary within such a short span to become the hero of the people of Pune. He simply put the fear of the law in those who had no respect for municipal rules. A large number of people turned up to pay their municipal bills and tax arrears once word got round that the new Commissioner meant business. Of the several hundred illegal structures demolished during his stay one belonged to the son-in-law of a former Shiv Sena Chief Minister and another to a Bharatiya Janata Party member of the Rajya Sabha. Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray has called Mr Bhatias methods as madness and the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, who belongs to the BJP, has said that his transfer orders would not be cancelled. But in Pune more than 150 citizens groups have come under the banner of Nagarik Kriti Samiti to fight Mr Bhatias unjustified transfer. What is unique about the campaign is that it has attracted people from the upmarket Koregaon to slum-dwellers, from Leftists to right-wing groups. However, much would depend
on the verdict of the Mumbai High Court which is hearing
a clutch of public interest petitions against Mr
Bhatias mala fide transfer from Pune.
In response to the courts notice the
peoples bureaucrat has filed an
affidavit stating, among other things, that the order
goes against the guidelines that ordinarily
no transfer should be effected more than once a year and
normally an officer should retain a post for
three years. During his brief posting a successful drive
to collect property tax arrears from residents was
launched for the first time in the history of
Pune. However, the anger against the
sacking of Mr Bhatia as the Municipal
Commissioner of Pune should leave no scope for doubt that
people, by and large, love and respect upright officers,
Mr G.R. Khairnar, the demolition man of
Mumbai became a folk hero overnight because he
dared to raze the illegal structures of the high and
mighty of the city. Mr K.J. Alphons earned the respect of
the residents of Delhi when he launched a drive against
illegal colonies as an officer of the DDA. There is a
discernible current of excitement in Chandigarh over Ms
Kiran Bedis posting as the Inspector-General of
Police of the Union Territory. The so-called
corrupt policemen are more happy than the
average citizen at the prospect of not being forced to
commit illegal acts by superiors. As the saying goes,
corruption like most evils too begins at
the top. But it is the small fish which get caught. |
THE Indian state is in a crisis, thanks to certain types of politicians and their shady collaborators in different segments of national life. Of them, Christopher Thomas wrote recently in his book Assignment India: I believe there is no vindictive adjective too strong to describe them, considering what they have done and continue to do with their grubbing manipulations and hateful ambitions. He goes on: What staggers me is that people forgive them, so that they can be dumped decisively in one election and come striding back in the next with a thumping majority only to exploit people all over again. I would not like to decry politicians as a class; some of them are first-rate. But the increasing number of them have either come from the underworld or are very much part of mafia power. Cant this unholy nexus be broken? Yes. We can do it provided we create a system of operational transparency and accountability and keep our sacred institutions beyond the grubby hand of corrupt politicians and their collaborators. One such institution is the judiciary. Another is the defence forces. There have been attempts to politicise the judiciary. But the judiciary has had better sense. It resisted such attempts. In the case of the institution of the defence forces there had been moves in the past to interfere with top-level promotions and appointments. But the worst damage was inflicted by Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav during his short stint as Defence Minister. He not only tried to politicise the armed forces but also initiated moves to introduce casteist policies in matters of recruitment and promotion. However, the recent dismissal of Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat as the Chief of Naval Staff has degenerated into a vicious personalised issue. It has acquired lurid partisan-political colours. Allegations and counter-allegations, often wild and unsubstantiated, have been publicly hurled, vitiating the atmosphere. They have raised several questions on the quality of governance and the norms followed in taking vital decisions of national importance. The washing of dirty linen has badly affected the morale of the forces. Perhaps, it cannot be helped. It could have been avoided by maintaining decorum, though. As already stated, the Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat affair has raised several sensitive issues having a bearing on the morale of the armed forces. Several charges and counter-charges have been made on the purchase of weapons for the services. The issue is, therefore, no longer confined to the right or wrong of the sacking of the Chief of Naval Staff (CNS). Two wrongs do not make one right. Nor do one right and one wrong make the government functioning credible. While the resumed debate in Parliament on April 12 might throw new light on all related matters, much will depend on the standard of parliamentary discussion and the extent to which the government is prepared to share information with the nation. The acrimony and controversy of the past few weeks could have been avoided had the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister been more forthcoming with basic facts. The people have the right to information. This is what democracy is all about. The current air of secrecy has to end. In India the ruling class has made a virtue of it. It is also imperative that the sluice gates of disinformation and misinformation should be closed, whether they are operated by the PMO or the Ministry of Defence or by individual officers. However, while pleading for the right to information, it is conceded that no one expects the government to come out with defence secrets which might jeopardise the security of the nation. This is the last thing people should expect from the government. The need, therefore, is for balancing the national interest and security with the demands for openness and transparency in defence deals. A line, therefore, has to be drawn between strategic and operational affairs and other functional facets which throw light on the working of the political and bureaucratic system. For, this is a matter of transparency in the working of the system. In fact, a number of questions which have been raised in recent weeks have a direct bearing on the openness of the system. This is all the more necessary in view of the serious charges cast against those at the highest levels on defence deals. In a way, the critical question of arms purchases has been with us ever since the controversy with regard to the Bofors gun and related matters of pay-offs cropped up in 1987. The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) was appointed for the purpose. But nothing substantial has come out of it. Why? The answer is very simple: political parties tend to view every vital matter with their narrow angularities. We are never able to reach the bottom of the truth. Though India has well-defined norms for the selection of weapons, we need to re-examine the entire purchase procedure so that the nation feels reassured that the armed forces have the advantage of having the best equipment in the world. There must not be any compromise on the quality of weapons for those guarding the frontiers with dedication and determination. The time has come to evolve a rational perspective on defence matters. First, under no circumstances should we allow politicisation of the armed forces. Indias defence forces have the reputation of being highly professional. And it is this image which makes our forces stand out in the comity of nations. Viewing the armed forces with political angularities and dividing them on caste lines is a dangerous game which must be opposed and resisted tooth and nail. Unfortunately, there have been aberrations galore. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, during his tenure as Defence Minister, talked about a quota system in the armed forces. His caste card has had serious repercussions on professionalism. The nation was, however, fortunate in seeing him out of this coveted position. Mr Yadavs loss was the nations gain. In sharp contrast to the style of working of Mr Yadav, it must be said to the credit of Mr George Fernandes that his approach has, by and large, been professional. Some of his initiatives have won him the admiration of the officers and jawans. He acted tough in punishing those bureaucrats who were sitting over the request of supplying proper equipment to the forces posted at Siachen. He showed guts and it is praiseworthy. However, the question which still remains unanswered is the handling of the Admiral Bhagwat affair. The nation would like to know the facts about this and other related matters. Political and caste factors apart, any communal consideration in the decision-making mechanism can be equally dangerous and harmful to the nations interests. It is a pity that over a period of time the politico-bureaucratic system has been tampered with and it has so developed that it works at all levels for the benefit of those at the helm. In the new permissive atmosphere everyone wishes to look after oneself to the detriment of public good. On the face of it, the situation seems hopeless. But all is not lost as yet. The nation is still vibrant and the public vigilant. All that is required is to build public pressure through a free flow of information. Only free but responsible debate can clear the present atmosphere of intrigue and negativism. The nation has the right
to information on the sacking of Admiral Bhagwat. Less of
secrecy and more of openness are the basic requirements
for building a corruption-free society. Over to the Prime
Minister. |
China and
Asian
economic gloom CHINA'S one trillion dollar economy, the seventh largest, has begun to slacken in output and exports, forcing the government to budget a huge deficit in order to shore up growth at not less than 7 per cent in 1999, the lowest after more than a decade of explosive expansion. The GDP fell below the target of 8 per cent in 1998, export growth declined and state enterprise reforms ran into difficulties. Chinese leaders have decided to stimulate demand with massive infrastructure spending while continuing with reforms to overcome the structural weaknesses in the economy. China claimed to have posted a GDP growth of 7.8 per cent last year though doubts are cast on the reliability of the official data. The budget deficit is set to go up by 56 per cent in 1999 in the attempt to achieve a 7 per cent growth. The loss of export momentum has raised the possibility of China exercising the devaluation option it had so far resisted in the face of the hefty depreciation of several Asian currencies. Current trends in China, in the midst of the unrelieved gloom in the crisis-hit countries of South-East Asia and the worst recession in Japan, have worsened the economic outlook for the Asian region as a whole. India is also entering its new fiscal year in April after growth in industrial production and exports in 1998 turning to be lowest since 1992-93. The prospects are for subdued GDP growth in 1999 after the estimated 5.8 per cent in 1998 in the context of the global recession and uncertainties in capital flows. Financial market turmoils appeared to have calmed somewhat at the end of the first quarter of 1999, but the world economy still faces serious risks that could lower the GDP estimates for several countries, especially for emerging economies. World output was already down to a 2 per cent level in 1998, half of the 4 per cent average of the previous three years while the IMF projection for 1999 is no more than 2.2 per cent. Global trade, growing by an average of 9 per cent for four years in succession, expanded slowly by 4 per cent in 1998 and is unlikely to do better in 1999. For the developing countries, the external environment, besides global trade slowdown, is far from favourable with the steep fall in commodity prices, the sharp decline in capital flows, and the limited access to export markets as new protectionist barriers emerge in advanced countries. Russia is looking for a new bailout by the IMF while Brazil, despite a 41-billion dollar arrangement with the IMF in December last, suffered a capital flight. This largest economy in Latin America will have virtually no growth in real terms for the second year, and this will impact on the prospects for the region. After uninterrupted growth for seven years, notching close to 4 per cent in 1998, with record levels of unemployment and inflation, the US economy is expected to slow down in 1999. The stock market had remained at a peak level fairly through the turbulences that swept the financial markets in Asia, Latin America and Russia. But business confidence in the USA may be beginning to decline, according to analysts, as a spectre of deflation worldwide haunts the rest of the global economy. The USA has been pressuring Euro-Zone countries and Japan to stimulate their economies, after its own interest rate cuts. The German economy has lately been shrinking and the single currency union countries have yet to forge a concerted growth strategy, which would impart greater confidence in the new currency, Euro, which is not holding up steady vis-a-vis the dollar. International oil prices on a downtrend for some months have plunged to 10 dollars or below a barrel and are viewed as moving closer to the pre-1973 price of oil in real terms. However welcome a price fall for importing countries, it will hit the oil-exporters hard and weaken their ability to finance imports from the rest of the world. Over the longer term, depressed oil prices would hinder exploration efforts to tap new sources. According to UNCTAD, FDI flows to five crisis-hit Asian countries in 1998 suffered a decline of $ 2 billion though for Korea and Thailand, there was some increase in inflows. But foreign bank lending and portfolio investments have not recovered to the pre-crisis levels. Pointing to downside
risks, a UN report says another round of financial
instability could push an already fragile world economy
into recession. The report urges expansionary policy
actions by industrialised countries to sustain developing
countries growth and suggests a special allocation of
SDRs and debt relief to make up for the depressed
financial flows to these countries in 1999. Commercial
bank lending is expected to remain low this year and risk
aversion could see further outflows of short-term funds,
and all these could damage the prospects of recovery in
the developing world. |
The mad world of capital MONEY is a veil: it hides many mysteries. And being mysteries, we know so little about them. Boom and bust are manifestations of these mysteries. But they take place away from us. Now the crisis is in our neighbourhood in East and S.E. Asia. We now know the magnitude of the tragedy. Currency speculation is the cause of this tragedy. It is keeping much of the world in a state of crisis. The poor nations are the worst affected. No wonder, at the G-15 meeting in Jamaica, the vagaries of the international financial market received the utmost attention. There was a time when production (of goods and services) formed the basis of the worlds growing wealth. But no more. Today wealth grows mainly through speculation and manipulation. Paper billionaires are on the increase. It was manipulation of oil prices in the early seventies that put into the pockets of US oil companies and Arab Sheikhs trillions of petro-dollars. The result was the Mexican crisis. But while Mexico became a pauper, US banks and speculators made their billions. This hot money (as it came to be called) is ever on the increase through speculation. External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh says: If there can be a mechanism to regulate trade in goods and services, then it stands to reason that currency, which is now the largest unorganised trade, must have a mechanism to regulate it. Very logical. But the USA, which has been the lender in the postwar years and is the citadel of short-term capital (hot money) is not in favour of regulation of capital. Wall Street and the US Treasury (called the Wall Street-Treasury complex today) are backing this policy. Long-term investment capital is welcome all over the world; not hot money. The former is regulated; the latter not. There is a growing feeling that this hot money flow must be brought under control. But how to control it this is still not clear. The IMF pretends to be concerned. But its remedies make matters worse. It is yet to change its ways. In the meantime, the World Bank has drawn up two lessons: Regulation of the capital must go hand in hand with financial liberalisation and more thinking is needed on how to control hot money. It is now recognised by even the G-7 nations the USA, UK, Germany and others that there is need to reform the international financial market. Even President Clinton is in favour. Is a free flow of capital necessary? There are serious doubts on this. Prof Jagdish Bhagwati of Columbia University says: It is ideological humbug to say that without capital mobility, the world cannot function. Mr Joseph Stiglitz, Chief Economist of World Bank, sees no merit in short-term capital. It is savings which serve as the capital in most countries. It is best that way. Thrift is a universal virtue. Nations must cultivate it (Only the USA seems to be averse to it.) But savings are not always adequate. Hence the need for the savings of others. But should we pay an unacceptable price for it? Foreign aid was never more than 10 per cent of the total investment in India. The world is in need of long-term capital. But it is short-term capital which floods the capital market. It is in search of quick profits and good returns. The borrower is of least concern. Naturally, it takes to speculation. In the process, it creates crises. We cannot allow this to go on. According to Prof Paul Krugman of MIT, in two years there will be capital control in most of the countries and the IMFs role will shrink. This will be welcome. There is a growing feeling that behind the crisis in Asia is a US conspiracy. The IMF was the cats paw. The idea was to open the region to hot money by introducing full convertibility (hot money also wants a good return), to gain a stronger foothold in Asia and to reduce the economic importance of Asia. In all these, Washington seems to have succeeded. American and European currency traders, bankers and fund managers have all made huge money from the crisis. UNCTAD puts it at $ 250 billion. Such profits are not possible except by creating a crisis. George Soros, a leading hedge fund operator, made two billions in just a few days! Citicorp, the US bank, is reported to have made $ 865 million in 1996 from currency speculation and $ 1.5 billion in 1997. We have reliable authorities backing our suspicion. The Economist says: Some of the demands (made by IMF) have Washingtons fingerprints all over them. Today corporate scouts of the West are hunting in East and S.E. Asia for windfalls. The method is simple: you pick up bankrupt companies, hold on to their assets and sell them at a profit when the tide turns. In South Korea alone, 20,000 companies went bust. About $10 billion are said to have been invested by the end of 1998. Currency traders say that if countries have sound economic policies, there would be no attack on their currency. True, countries in East and S.E. Asia were rotting within. A fixed exchange rate led banks and corporations to borrow large amounts of hot money. It gave an impression of zero risk. What was the role of Washington? It used the IMF to batter down the tariff and investment barriers to US exports and capital. And Japan and China looked on benignly. How does a country become bankrupt overnight? The mystery is in the currency value. As speculators push down the value of the currency, the country is in a crisis. No sane world can accept such make-believe. In 1985 a dollar was worth 0.85 rouble. In another year or so, a dollar was worth 5000 roubles! Almost overnight, the Indonesian rupiah lost 80 per cent of its value! This is not the science of economics. It is madness. It is time to get out of this lunacy. Till 1970 the world had fixed exchange rates. With fixed rates, speculation was not possible. But with floating currencies, speculation has become rampant. The only remedy against speculation is to have adequate foreign exchange reserves. But most of the countries do not have this advantage. In any case, they are unable to combat a sustained attack. Today about $ 1.5 trillion worth of currencies are traded daily. Only 10 per cent of it is required for international trade. The rest goes into currency speculation. This is gambling. It has no economic sense. It is true currencies get over-valued or under-valued. There is need to correct this. Speculation is supposed to do it. But you dont need a global crisis to do it. In the meantime, billions of new money is created, which too enters the world of speculation. The question is: how long can this madness continue? At present it benefits the West alone. Two things are vital for
man: his personal security and economic well-being. In
both, man has created a mad world, thanks to US
leadership. |
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