The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

End of a chapter
Boston manhunt over, questions remain

THE people of Boston can now breathe a little easier. The massive manhunt following the bomb blasts that killed three people and injured many is now over. One suspect is dead, the other has been arrested. Thousands of security personnel who had streamed into the city will now return to their normal duties, the mass transit systems that had been shut down will not start functioning, schools will reopen and people will resume normal lives. However, even as the city whose marathon was so tragically disrupted limps back to normalcy, many questions remain unanswered.

The huge deployment of resources after the bomb blasts has shown results, and as President Barack Obama said, an important chapter has been closed in this tragedy. No doubt, further investigations will inform us of how the two people who had by all accounts assimilated fairly well into the cultural milieu of their adopted country became so radicalised, especially the younger suspect, who was often described as “smart and sweet” by those who knew him. There is now a growing realisation that the terror that the US has to deal with comes from many fronts, both domestic and foreign, and there are no simplistic solutions to tackle it.

Indeed, the response by the US authorities, as reflected in the US President’s statements, was finely nuanced. Those who had committed the act of terror were identified and dealt with effectively, even as the President sought to warn his fellow Americans from rushing to judgements about “entire groups of people”. In his statement, the US President said the terrorists had failed in their attempt to “break the bonds that hold us together as Americans. That American spirit includes staying true to the unity and diversity that makes us strong-like no other nation in the world.” Indeed, Americans will look for answers, even as they cope with acts of terrorism without being terrorised, and keeping alive the spirit of freedom that they cherish so much.

Police — a liability
Don’t get political mileage out of rape

THE irony couldn’t have hit harder. The day the whole of North India fed and worshiped young girls (kanjaks), symbolising goddess mother, a five-year-old girl was made to go without food for three days, was brutalised and raped in Delhi, also known as the ‘rape capital’ of India since December 16, 2012. Once again a whole chain of accusations, police apathy and attempts to politicise the issue shrieking through TV channels entered our homes and disturbed the semblance of peace while the minor struggled for her life at AIIMS. When Nirbhaya was fighting for her life in the same hospital last December, one thought human beings had hit the rock bottom of barbarism, but worse was to yet come. One is not sure if this hits the rock bottom!

Once again people are angry and baffled. As the complex issue of brutalisation of society eludes their comprehension, they come out on the roads, protesting, breaking barricades and accusing the government. Everyone knows no government can be held responsible for the barbarism of its citizenry, but people are angry for a tendency among all governments to treat the police as an asset even when the force has become a liability. In this particular case, the police apathy continued for three long days while the girl was gagged and raped, and her parents begged to get a missing person report filed. The police made no effort to look for the child; instead, as alleged by the girl’s family, when the family finally found her, they offered it money to hush up the case.

In case after case police personnel are found seriously wanting in performing their duties, but all that one hears is a suspension order followed by an enquiry. No one knows whether it results in punishing the erring personnel or not. It pacifies public anger for the time being and the status quo is maintained by the police for its non -performing assets. And crimes go unabated. Politicisation of such issues is equally sickening. All sections should feel responsible for corrupting and brutalising society!

Thought for the Day

Weeds are flowers too, once you get to know them.

— A. A. Milne

ARTICLE

Economy & crime against women
Measures that can change the mindset
by Charan Singh

THE month of March 2013 was unique: while the anti-rape Bill was being discussed and passed in Parliament, crime against women continued unabated across India. This is a cause for concern for a country which not only nurses a dream but also aspires to be a super power. To achieve this goal, an increasing number of women would be required to actively participate in the job market. Furthermore, it is necessary that women in India feel equally secure outside their homes, especially in North India. To ensure security to women, it would not be just sufficient to provide more security on the streets or public transport but also to investigate the psychological and social reasons as to why such instances occur in a country where so many goddesses are regularly worshipped.

Historically, for more than two thousand years, from the time of Alexander in 326 BC, North India has been plundered and looted by invaders. Included in the loot were also a large number of women who would be sold away in far-away markets like commodities. The invasions by Mahmud Ghazni and Mongol forces are also well known. Over the centuries, it seems to have become a routine matter to dishonour women, and Herculean efforts by Ishwarchandra Vidyasagar, Raja Rammohun Roy or Swami Vivekananda could not change the situation. During Partition and in independent India, too, many crimes against women, including those in recent times, for political reasons, can be recollected.

The massively popular, all-permissive and all-pervading entertainment industry, with its liberal norms, has not helped the situation. Worse still, anecdotal evidence suggests that the majority of the adult female population of Delhi probably is a victim of some sort of sexual abuse and lives with a sense of insecurity.

There could be a number of economic implications of such insecurity among women in India. One implication probably is the adverse sex-ratio in north India, partially attributed to the preference of a son over a daughter even by mothers (Pande and Malhotra, 2006; Zimmermann, 2012) which has had a devastating impact on demographics (Bora, 2012). Another implication could be the strengthening of the tendency to avoid and evade tax. As the recent study by TaxSpanner showed, women are better tax planners than men in India. In a study published in the Journal of Economic Psychology (2010), Barbara Kastlunger and others show that women are more tax-complaint than men in Italy. Globally also women are considered more tax-compliant but in India that probably is not the case as recently documented by Robert McGee (Ethics of Tax Evasion, 2012). This finding is in contrast to an earlier study by Benno Torgler (2002) which concluded that women in India help to build tax morale leading to higher tax compliance.

The conclusion by McGee could have serious fiscal ramifications because an increasing number of women are expected to enter the workforce. Logically, it can be deduced that in a family where females are not safe, the compulsion of tax compliance would be less than optimal. And this would not be without reason as according to Adam Smith, father of political economy, an important function of the
government is to safeguard the legitimate rights of its citizens. How would the government inspire tax compliance if an important half of its population is insecure?

The Prime Minister has acknowledged in a recent meeting with chief ministers and chief justices of high courts that more needs to be done to prevent crime against women. To change the mindset, in this context, a number of measures can be considered. The first is to examine the role of different specific institutions and industry in the occurrence of crime against women. As the US is examining the relationship between the media and gun violence, similarly, a study on crime against women and the role of a few likely industries (illustratively, entertainment) needs to be undertaken.

If the causality is established between a specific industry and crime, then necessary remedial measures can be ensured. This would follow the time-tested cannon of taxation of equity —while the entertainment industry, for example, could probably be making substantial profits by commodifying women and depicting crime, the government ends up caring for the victims from the tax-payers’ money. This situation is similar to the cigarette and tobacco industry (CTI) in the US where after pitched legal battles, CTI was held responsible and made to incur substantial costs of treating lung cancer. Second, sociologists and psychologists need to undertake extensive studies on the relevance of prevalent customs and norms that negatively impact the dignity of women in society.

The economic cost of crime against women seems to have been neglected. May be, therein lies an important factor which could be used as a sharp deterrent against such crimes. The recent Delhi case, for example, led to the stalling of the proceedings of Parliament for two days; and involved other substantial costs in containing the situation. There is another more important but hidden cost for an aspiring India and that is international rating and credibility of India, impacting job opportunities, investment and, finally, growth of the economy. Eventually, all costs are borne by the tax payers — the innocent citizens of this country. So, probably, additional effective deterrent to be considered, once convicted, could be strong economic setback to the perpetrators and their associates in crime.

Prevention is always better than cure and various methods can also be immediately considered. It would be useful if, like the mid-day meal scheme, women are provided with effective and easy-to-use preventive instruments like sound alarms, and regularly provided training in self-defence. To facilitate policing activities and higher surveillance for the safety of women, given the difficult fiscal situation of the governments, some quick measures like re-employing pensioners from the police and the army can be considered. The fast-track courts can have the benefit of re-employed, though retired, officials of the judiciary. These measures would imply an additional cost to the government but hopefully secure population, especially women, will cheerfully yield higher tax compliance.

The writer is RBI Chair Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.

MIDDLE

In the lap of nature
by PM Singh

THE district extended over two widely separated valleys. While the Lohit valley had a road up to the forward tehsil headquarters, the Debang valley could boast of only footpaths. The tehsil headquarters at Annini in the Debang valley was 14 days’ walking distance from the road-head at Roving. The forward settlements in this valley were another three days’ walking distance. During my last visit to Annini and some of the forward villages I had to be away from the district headquarters for almost 30 days: walking up and down those steep slopes, all of those 30 days. I, therefore, had no inclination to pay another visit to the valley.

Walking in a rain forest is a great experience; it is the naturalist’s joy and the botanist’s delight. The flora and insect life is breathtaking in their abundance and variety. Plants grow in great profusion and decay to grow again in an unending cycle, without ever being kissed by sunrays. The green canopy shuts out direct light or even filtered light. One is always wet and the best of precautions cannot keep the leeches from getting at you.

The general elections required of me to look into the arrangements in the Debang valley as well. Mercifully, an IAF helicopter had been arranged for this duty.

We flew along the Bharamputra valley over an impenetrable canopy of the forest and at Nizam Ghat turned into the Debang valley. It had rained heavily during the previous night, so there were innumerable small and large waterfalls in the valley. In the distance we could see a waterfall of great proportions. Soon we were over Annini, the tehsil headquarters, where I had planned to stop on the return journey.

We landed at Dembuin, the last settlement in this valley. At the helipad the post commander and the village headman and his wife received us. Dambuen is perhaps one of the remotest corners of the country. Tibet lay across a couple of ridge lines. Beside the usual, ’Dhah’ the headman, wore an old cycle chain across his chest. He had never seen a bicycle but the one who gave him this most valuable of his possessions must have explained it as a sinew of a metal horse, no different than his pony!

There was little to see at the polling booth. It was to be manned by the headman. After a check of the voting list and ensuring the headman and the post commander were familiar with the voting procedure, I asked to be left alone and walked to the nearby stream.

It was a shallow snow-fed stream whose bed was covered with pebbles of all colours and shades. I dipped my feet in the ice-cold water and a chill ran though my body. Over the dark forested hills one could see the snow-covered ranges. A light breeze wafted through the fur trees and made a hissing sound, adding to the nature’s music of water flowing over shingle. The ground was covered with wild strawberries and a variety of other flowers. Some mules lazily grazed on the edge of the dark forest. The scenery was breathtakingly beautiful.

I had closed my eyes to imbed in my mind the enchanting scenery and gentle breeze that carried the fragrance of wild flowers when I heard footsteps to my rear and a voice called out: “Madame, it is time to leave.” Reluctantly I got up and slowly ambled back to the helicopter.

OPED — WORLD

Will Asia rise and West decline?
History never holds only one future in store for us; there is always a plethora of possible futures. And as in all previous history, there will be surprises in the time ahead. The unforeseen and unforeseeable will shape the future as much as the expectable
By Theo Sommer

Beijing's new face reflects China's economic might Photo: Thinkstock

THE topic I have been given is: "The Rise of Asia — the Decline of the West?" It's a question arising from the momentous power shift we are experiencing in the contemporary world. It is the third power shift in the past half-millennium. The first was the rise of Europe. Beginning around the year 1500, it produced the world we know - the world of science and technology, of capitalism and commerce, of the industrial and the agricultural revolutions. Until 50 years ago, of course, it was also the world of colonialism.

The second shift occurred at the end of the 19th century, when the United States entered the world stage and dominated it for a hundred years - politically, militarily and economically a superpower with global reach, challenged first by Hitler's Germany, then by Stalin's Soviet Union, but ultimately triumphant in both cases.

Half a century ago we applauded the demise of colonialism. But even without colonies, the West continued to dominate the world. During the past ten of fifteen years, however, we have the rise of the Rest, notably the rise of Asia's giants, China and India, belatedly but single-mindedly following in the wake of Japan and the smaller Asian tigers. We are witnessing the emergence of a new world order - a world order in which neither Europe nor the United States will enjoy supremacy, as the newcomers will energetically push for their places in the sun.

West to see a renewal

It would be quite premature, however, to count the U.S. and the EU out. For one thing, nations are resilient animals, capable of extraordinary effort and accomplishment. The West will see a renewal in the next three to five years. It will get its mojo back, to use a fashionable phrase. Take Germany. Called the "sick man of Europe" only ten years ago, it has once again become the Old World's economic powerhouse. The U.S. has weathered economic crises and political gridlock before. In the same vein, Europe has gone through many crises, but without fail it has come out stronger from each of them. America and Europe are going to work their way out of the current predicament. Both of them have a knack for self-correction.

Since many Asians - and particularly Indians - look at the world through British glasses, especially the spectacles of the Australian/American europhobe Rupert Murdoch, I am not surprised that they tend to sneer at Europe's potential for remedying its shortcomings. But they are wrong. We are more than a giant Switzerland leaving a steadily shrinking footprint on the world stage. We'll be back. There is an important kernel of truth to the old joke that the process of building Europe must be compared to the love-life of the elephant: Everything goes on at a very high level; a lot of dust is raised; and you have to wait years for results. It will be no different this time.

Let's not get inebriated by statistics. It is true: in 1980 the U.S. had a 25 percent share of the world economy, the EU 28 percent and China 3.5 percent. It is also true: According to current predictions, the gross domestic product of China will in the next 10years grow by 120 percent, that of the U.S. by 30 percent, and Europe's GDP by only 17 percent; but America's share of global GDP will slide to 18 percent while China's will grow to 18 percent. And by now it is conventional wisdom that China will soon be the world's largest economy, overtaking the US sometime between 2017 and 2027, with India following a decade or two decades behind to become the second largest. Already this year, the old industrial nations will produce less than half of global output. By 2030, Asia's economy will be larger than that of the U.S. and the EU combined.

India vs China

But we should not delude ourselves. India and China are developing countries and will remain developing countries for another two, perhaps three generations. With their per capita income - $5,500 in China, $1,500 in India - they limp far behind the developed nations of the West, ranking 85th (China) respectably 115th (India) in the world list. They rank just as low in the U.N. Human Development Index - China coming in 101st, India 134th out of 187. Transparency International's Corruption Index ranks China a poor 80th in the world, India 94th. According to a projection of the Carnegie Foundation, by mid-century China's per capita income will amount to merely one third of the American level, India's even less, namely one tenth. Both countries will be far behind the European level, too. In China as on the subcontinent, it is still a long way to "prosperity for all".

China and India face enormous social problems. Hundreds of millions live in abysmal poverty. The gap between the rich and the poor keeps widening. Moribund state owned enterprises are a drag on the economy. Environmental pollution gets ever worse. There is no social net to speak of that mitigates the destitution of the masses. Corruption is all-pervasive. And job creation for 10 to 20 million people every year presents a daunting task. China grapples with the problems of an ageing population, India with the problems of a nation half of whose population is younger than twenty-five. The drawbacks of dictatorship jeopardize progress in China, the deficiencies of democracy have the same effect in India.

Indo-Pacific century?

As a Westerner, I recognize that the rest of the world won't simply dock in our harbor. But the twentieth century has only just begun. Will it become the Indo-Pacific Century? My answer to this question is the same the former Chinese Premier Chou En-lai gave when asked what he thought about the French Revolution: "It's too early to tell". In rising Asia, bumps and bruises are certain to punctuate its future development. Asia's trees won't grow to the sky. Turning dreams into reality is not an easy exercise. Japan's example holds an important lesson. Circumstances may change; a seemingly irresistible momentum may suddenly lose its propelling force; the inability to reform in time and move on to new horizons can drastically diminish a nation's prospects.

A lot can go wrong for the ascending Chinese dragon and the growing Indian elephant. The ageing Chinese might get old before they get rich, while youthful India might fail to provide jobs, life-chances and hope for its teeming young generation. If the old industrial nations remain innovative and entrepreneurial, they have little reason to fear the rise of Asia, especially the rise of Asia's undoubted stars, China and India. Their emergence or re-emergence does not spell the imminent decline of the old West. It is only a relative, not an absolute decline. The West will have to scoot over to make space for the nations now soaring ahead, but it will not disappear.

And the fact that the days of Western hegemony are over does not mean that any of the newcomers will be able to become a global hegemon. We are entering a post-hegemonic world - "no one's world", as Charles Kupchan put it, neither the white man's nor the yellow, brown or black man's world. A balance of power between multiple poles is going to foil any hegemonial, imperial or expansionist aspirations. America and Europe will each be one pole, and they will want to make sure that none of the up-and-coming nations will get any ideas. If necessary, they'll have to establish a balance of power capable of thwarting any hegemonial ambitions. But rather than drifting into new big power confrontations, they will leave no stone unturned to engage China and India in order to make them responsible stakeholders of the international community.

'Problems without passports'

There won't be a world government in 2050 able to enforce global dictates, nor in the year 2100. The nations will remain the building blocks of the international order. But formerly nations had sovereign command over their territory, their economic life and their natural environment. In the meantime, they have lost control over at least two of these three areas that used to define their sovereignty: the mastery over their national economies as well as over their environment. The world of business does not recognize borders any longer; nor does acid rain. Climate change, air pollution, overfishing and pollution of the oceans, energy security, water shortage, epidemics and pandemics - they all call for transnational solutions. In the absence of a world government, this requires what has become known as world governance - rules, procedures and institutions to address all those "problems without passports", to pick up a phrase coined by Kofi Annan.

Let me add a word by way of conclusion. As hard as we try to penetrate the fog of the future, in the last analysis we cannot say anything much more precise than Yogi Berra, the legendary US baseball coach. He is famous for his malapropisms. For instance: "This restaurant is so crowded nobody goes there any more!" Or, when the waitress asked him whether he wanted his pizza cut into four or eight slices, he said: "Four, I don't think I can eat eight." Or, when asked what he would do if he found a million dollars, he said: "If the guy was poor, I would give it back." About the future Yogi Berra said: "It's like the past, only longer."

Whether we are going to enter a Davos world with an Asian tint, a revived Pax Americana, a New Caliphate or protracted cycles of fear, a world without the West, a bust-up of the BRICS - we just cannot know. None of our planning staff and think-tank gurus seriously predicted the break-up of the Soviet empire, the triumph of the computer and the Internet, the eruption of jihad terrorism or the recent upheaval in the Arab World. In the future, too, bolts from the blue - the known unknown and the unknown unknown - will surprise and shock us. Yet with a bit of luck we may also look forward to some unhoped-for positive events and developments.

Excerpted from Dr.Theo Sommer's.Rajendra Mathur lecture organised by the Editors Guild of India in New Delhi on March 20, 2013