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politics
afghanistan
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Ally he is, but whose? Is the JD (U) warning on Modi based in party ideology, or is it a result of misgivings against the Gujarat icon within the BJP? Nitish Kumar’s ultimatum to the NDA and soft-pedalling on the UPA may keep everyone guessing till yearend. by K V Prasad
Having
been a faithful ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance for nearly two decades, the Janata Dal (United) is at a crossroads where it may have to choose a course for its future political direction. To be or not to be with the coalition is the question. For the past few days, political discourse in the country has hovered around the unease developing in the relationship between the JD (U) and the BJP and its possible implications on the national political landscape ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
Built around the strong differences on the contentious issue of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi being projected as the prime-ministerial candidate of the NDA in the next general election, a decision either way can wreck the alliance crafted carefully by the two BJP stalwarts Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani. At its recent organisational conclave in New Delhi, the JD (U) and its top leadership left little for imagination by drawing contours of what it expects. First by serving an ultimatum to the BJP, lead party of the alliance, to name by the end of this year the person who would be the NDA choice for Prime Minister, and then identifying the inherent qualities it expects in the political persona thus named. Even as the JD (U) presented a fait accompli to the BJP, the latter promptly rejected any dictation by an ally on matters it felt essentially fall in the realm of internal party affairs. In the process, the BJP counselled that the Opposition energies should be directed against the policies and work of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, in power for nearly a decade.
The Modi complex Interestingly, while the JD (U) chose to criticise the Congress-led UPA in its political resolution, its leaders refrained from attacking the Central government, an issue that irked the BJP. Political significance of the JD (U) leaders’ silence was accentuated by the decision of the Centre to grant a Rs 12,000 crore package to Bihar, adding to speculation of the party cosying up to the Congress-led UPA in New Delhi. What are the compulsions of the JD (U), a party formed after the breakup of the erstwhile Janata Dal into Samata Party, Janata Dal (Secular) and the Janata Dal (United)? Is Nitish Kumar, who heads a JD (U)-BJP coalition government in Bihar, seeking to test its stability, especially when he acknowledges that the equation in the state between the partners is good? And finally, is the JD (U), a party that swears allegiance to the thought of staunch socialist leaders like Ram Manohar Lohia and Jaya Prakash Narayan who opposed the Congress, likely to shift the stance? These questions need to be analysed to find a possible answer. For the JD (U), which has a government going in Bihar whose mandate was reinforced after Nitish Kumar got an endorsement three years ago to govern the state for the second time, there is a concern that its support base among Muslims could be challenged in case Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is projected as the possible Prime Minister by the NDA before the Lok Sabha polls.
Social engineering Although the BJP has not made any declaration either way, the JD (U) is wary of being led by Modi, who it holds responsible for the 2002 Gujarat riots. This should be seen in the context of the 16-odd per cent Muslim vote in the state that once backed Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad Yadav but gravitated towards JD (U). Nitish Kumar’s clever social engineering formula added voters of the Most Backward Classes segment to create a solid base for the party. The JD (U) cannot afford to let it be chipped away. A senior member of the JD (U) and old-time socialist in the Lohiaite mould, Bashisht Narain Singh, justified the stance of the party considering the ground reality. In his assessment, unless the BJP improves its strength in the next general election, the NDA would find the going tough in forming a government. Singh played a role in drafting the political resolution and also moved it in the National Council of the party. Is that the only reason? Political survival is a necessity, but there is a section in the NDA that holds the view that Nitish Kumar, the brain behind the political resolution, could also be articulating the anti-Modi thought that exists among a small but influential section of the BJP leadership. Modi may enjoy popular support in the party, but not necessarily among those in the highest echelons of decision-making. The JD (U) may have been drawn into the vortex of the BJP’s inner-party tussle. By setting an eight-month deadline for the BJP to take a call on the Prime Minister issue, the JD (U) averted any immediate showdown that could have cast a shadow on the survival of the Bihar government, and at the same time sent a message across to its workers and supporters to get ready for any eventuality. As for the option of looking towards the Congress, one must remember that the JD (U) has always opposed the party, and the recent silence on key issues cannot be construed as turning soft. For the present, the JD (U) leadership has executed a manoeuvre to alter the course the NDA may be put on by a well-orchestrated campaign designed by the supporters of NaMo, as Narendra Modi is known.
On the NDA ark The BJP began feathering its nest in 1996 at the national level when the party took the first shot at power after the general election, with then President Shankar Dayal Sharma inviting Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the government. Among those who stood by the BJP at the time was the SAD of Parkash Singh Badal. The government lasted barely 13 days, with Vajpayee resigning before taking a vote of confidence on the floor of the Lok Sabha. Battling a political “untouchable” scourge, the BJP wove a coalition of parties and presented an alternative NDA to the electorate in the 1998 Lok Sabha polls that saw the likes of the Shiv Sena, JD (U), All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, MDMK, Biju Janata Dal, J&K National Conference, Haryana Lok Dal, and the Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan among others joining hands. When the AIADMK moved out of the NDA fold, the DMK moved in to fill the gap and stayed on till the 2004 general election. Another ally from Tamil Nadu, the Pattali Makal Katchi of Dr Ramadoss, snapped ties in early 2000 to be with Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls and returned later. In the current Lok Sabha, the NDA Bench strength is 151 MPs, including 115 of the BJP. The JD (U) with 20 MPs is the single largest ally, followed by the Shiv Sena (11) and the SAD (4). The latest party to get on the bandwagon is the Haryana Janhit Congress, with Kuldeep Bishnoi as it lone representative. After the JD (U), the Shiv Sena has objected to Modi, but its opposition has more to do with squabbles its chief Uddhav Thackrey has with cousin Raj Thackrey, leader of a more belligerent Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, and the latter’s close relations with
Modi.
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afghanistan AS the deadline for drawdown comes closer in Afghanistan, India is faced with a plethora of challenges in the battle-scarred nation to safeguard its strategic interests. The first and foremost challenge comes from Pakistan, which is hell-bent on denying India any role in the aftermath of the pullout of foreign troops in 2014. Adding to India’s woes is the spectre of Pakistan-friendly Taliban re-emerging as the predominant force in Afghanistan.
It has become absolutely necessary for New Delhi to sustain its presence in Afghanistan for its own national security by intensifying its massive humanitarian programmes so as to win the minds and hearts of the Afghans. Many consider India’s policy towards Afghanistan an embodiment of the “soft power approach”. And New Delhi has been quite successful in this endeavour. India is today considered the favourite nation among the Afghan people. Due to their destructive interference, other countries, particularly Pakistan, have earned a bad reputation with the people there. Dangerous track India is now poised to take some far-reaching initiatives to expand its role in the land-locked nation, based on its firm belief that social and economic development in Afghanistan is crucial to regional stability. One of the significant projects, to which New Delhi is currently giving a final shape, is to build what is arguably the world’s most dangerous railroad from the mineral-rich heartland of Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar, in an attempt to open a new trade route and reduce Kabul’s dependence on Pakistan. Iran is also keen on India expediting the project as the Islamic republic, currently fighting crippling US sanctions in view of its controversial nuclear programme, wants its port infrastructure to be upgraded. Though port development does not attract US sanctions, it is still not clear how Washington is viewing India’s proposal since it will considerably bolster Iran’s sea capability. For India, the Chabahar project could be highly rewarding in the post-drawdown phase in Afghanistan. It will not only provide a transit link to Afghanistan, but also to the whole of Central Asia, much to Pakistan’s discomfort. The new route would allow Indian goods to be transported to Afghanistan and rich Afghan minerals and products to be shipped to Surat, Mumbai and other western ports of India. Chinese Naval presence at Pakistan’s Gwadar Port has given India all the more reason to expedite the port project. Officials in New Delhi say the principle objective of India’s partnership is to assist in building indigenous Afghan capacity and institutions and to ensure that development touches all regions of the war-ravaged nation and encompasses all the sectors of development. India’s pledged assistance to Afghanistan stands at about $2 billion, making it the fifth largest bilateral donor to the country. It is involved in almost every area of humanitarian activity, be it building dams, colleges, schools, roads and hospitals or drilling tube wells. Besides, it is also training soldiers of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and giving scholarships to nearly 1,000 students every year. The new Afghan Parliament building being built by India is almost complete. More than 3,000 Indians are working in Afghanistan. Despite the hostile situation, recruitment agencies in India continue receiving applications for jobs in different sectors in Afghanistan. Pak thorn India has even offered to cooperate with Pakistan in areas like health, education and trade in the larger interest of the prosperity of the region. However, Islamabad continues to view India’s engagement in Afghanistan with suspicion. It has always accused RAW, the Indian intelligence agency, of sending its personnel to Afghanistan under the guise of engineers and doctors and of supplying arms to militant groups in its restive Balochistan province. Hence, Pakistan’s ISI orchestrated attacks on Indian personnel of the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) at the Jalalabad Consulate in 2007 and the Indian Embassy in Kabul in July 2008 to undermine Indian security interests and destabilise its growing presence in Afghanistan. Undaunted by such provocations, India has stayed the course in Afghanistan. Islamabad has also continued to back the Taliban even after its political demise in Afghanistan. Its support stems from its belief that the group could provide Pakistan strategic depth in Afghanistan and a significant bargaining chip against New Delhi after the pullout of foreign troops. This is one of the reasons why India is wary of the western attempt at reconciliation with the Taliban. New Delhi apprehends an invitation to the Taliban could mean Afghanistan sliding back to the dark days of “jihadi” chaos of the 90s. China bends As far as China is concerned, the stability of Afghanistan is of critical importance to Beijing as well. China has invested about $3 billion in Afghanistan, particularly in the mining sector. To ensure that Afghanistan can stand on its own feet after the troops’ withdrawal, China is now even ready to cooperate with India. Hitherto, Beijing was reluctant to engage with India on Afghanistan, fearing that it might upset Pakistan, its “all-weather” friend. However, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in its own backyard in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province and the possibility of the Taliban once again playing a lead role in Afghanistan appear to have compelled Beijing to reconsider its Afghan strategy. On the other hand, the US now seems to be in a tearing hurry to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, having paid a heavy price in terms of casualties its forces have suffered in the 11-year-old war. It is negotiating a security pact under which some units of the US forces will remain in Afghanistan beyond the 2014 withdrawal deadline. Ironically, the US continues to appease Islamabad, believing that the path to success in Afghanistan lies through Pakistan. It is time Washington realises that Pakistan is part of the problem in Afghanistan. In its anxiety to pull out of Afghanistan, the US has committed another mistake by starting talks with the Taliban, giving a big blow to Afghans’ hopes for a better and clearer future of their country.
Areas of involvement
Dams, colleges, schools, roads, hospital, tube wells Training soldiers of Afghan National Army Scholarships to nearly 1,000 students annually New Afghan Parliament building being raised by India is nearly complete What it means For India
Will provide link to Afghanistan, Central Asia Will allow goods to be transported to Afghanistan and minerals to be shipped to western ports Chinese presence at
Pakistan’s Gwadar Port has given India reason to expedite it For Afghanistan
Will open new trade route; reduce Kabul’s dependence on Pak For Iran
Wants its port infrastructure to be upgraded Will bolster its sea capability
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The job of the Opposition, or parties in the current era of fractured electoral verdict, is to oppose, expose and depose, but the New Delhi show staged by the JD (U) was more about stopping the Modi campaign from what the American politicians describe as acquiring a ‘big mo’ (big momentum).