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Revisiting NCTC
The crisis in Maldives |
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Calling it a day
India's objectives in Myanmar
‘Wrong’ side of the West
US toughENS stance against Chinese hackers
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Revisiting NCTC
THE Hyderabad bomb blasts have revived the demand for setting up the National Counter Terrorism Centre. Proposed by P. Chidambaram as Home Minister after the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, the NCTC was (and is) resisted by some Opposition-ruled states on the ground that it encroached on state territory and the Centre could misuse the power to detain anyone without informing the state police. When Sushilkumar Shinde took over as Home Minister, the NCTC idea was put in the freezer. Had it been made operational in time, perhaps, intelligence inputs available about the possibility of terror strikes in Hyderabad could have been better processed by experts and the twin blasts averted. Media reports suggest the Mumbai police was on the trail of the suspected Hyderabad bombers belonging to the Indian Mujahideen after the Pune blasts. This is a common, recognised hurdle that while terrorists move swiftly from one state to another, state agencies get embroiled in administrative tangles even if they are keen on sharing intelligence. Lack of coordination between inter-state and Central-state agencies often works to the advantage of terrorists, be they home-bred like Maoists or those guided by foreign agencies. Nodal organisations like the NCTC and the National Intelligence Grid can better handle intelligence inputs received from various Central and state intelligence agencies, and ensure action on them without delay. At the same time, those in charge can be held accountable for intelligence lapses, if any. However, the idea of NCTC – inspired by a similar US model which has effectively curbed terrorist activities post-9/11 – has been lost in Central-state turf wars. Intelligence gathering to fight terrorism is quite different from routine policing to maintain law and order. States have neither resources nor a well-equipped police force to fight terrorists who use sophisticated weapons and latest gadgets to carry out their nefarious operations. The fight against terror requires a unified response. Differences between the Centre and states over the NCTC can be bridged if political leaders stop the blame game and act in the larger national interest.
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The crisis in Maldives
IT is a matter of relief for India that former Maldivian President Mohammed Nasheed, who had taken shelter in the Indian High Commission building in Male on February 13, has left the commission’s premises on his own. He had created an embarrassing situation for New Delhi by forcibly taking shelter in the Indian mission complex. His act had exposed India to the charge of openly interfering in a neighbouring country’s internal affairs. That Nasheed has been known for his pro-India leanings is a different matter. India also had friendly relations with the Maldives during Maumoon Abdul Ghayoom’s rule, a dictator who was ousted as a result of a pro-democracy movement with Nasheed getting elected as President. India has to ensure that its interests in the Maldives are safe under all circumstances. Nasheed’s departure from the President’s House in Male led to Mohammed Waheed Hasan coming to power with the help of religio-political forces. Nasheed was too rash in managing the affairs of his country, little bothering about its cultural ethos. He ultimately paved the way for his own downfall when he “abducted” a non-pliable Chief Judge of the Maldivian criminal court. A case was registered against him when he lost power. He sought refuge in the Indian High Commission complex to evade arrest, which would result in his getting debarred from contesting the September elections in the Maldives. Whether he will be taken into custody or not remains to be seen. But India has to ensure that it is not seen in taking sides in the Maldivian struggle for power. Already New Delhi has suffered a considerable loss of interests with China and Pakistan having developed close relations with Male during the present Waheed-led regime. China established its full-fledged embassy after Waheed captured power. Pakistan has also been overactive in this geopolitically significant archipelago for the past few years. India, on the contrary, suffered reverses when one of its infrastructure firms, GMR, which constructed a grand airport at Male, was asked to leave that country a few months back. This shows that New Delhi will have to review its policy vis-à-vis the Maldives for safeguarding its interests as the top priority.
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Calling it a day
ONE day he had to call it a day. He did it at 101, high time to get out of the competitive race, as most would agree. But then he is no ordinary person, and this is not the usual competitive rate race. Fauja Singh, the grand old marathoner, finished the Hong Kong 10-km run in 94 minutes. This would be the last time he would compete, said he. The oldest marathon runner in the world started late, but ever since the first marathon he ran in London in 2000, he created a sensation wherever he went. He has been a poster boy for fitness, thereby inspiring thousands of people all over the world to run even as he competed in eight marathons, and numerous runs. Fauja Singh, who overcame various adversities— lack of means, lack of formal education, family tragedies, including the death of his son and his wife — is a remarkable man. He spent the first eight decades of his life in his village in Punjab, but has now made London his home. He has recently been touring Punjab to help raise awareness about fitness in the land of his birth. He might be out of competitive marathons, but he promises to keep on running since, as he puts it: “Running is my life.” The doughty runner has set a great example for the elderly and the young alike. Even though he started at 89, he continued to follow his trainer’s instructions and built up the required stamina to participate in marathons. His will power, dogged determination, focus on the goal he had set for himself, and winning all the milestones necessary for him to get what he wanted are, indeed, qualities worth emulating. His modest demeanour, forthright manner and the will to give back to society had all added to the iconic stature that Fauja Singh has among sportspersons in particular and the public in general. Even as he takes a bow, he has a great role to play in inspiring those younger than him to be as fit as he is.
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Small minds are concerned with the extraordinary, great minds with the ordinary.
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India's objectives in Myanmar
Besides Afghanistan, New Delhi has been extensively engaged in Myanmar in India's neighbourhood. Both the Foreign Ministry and the PMO have been forward-looking in these two countries. Besides the bilateral engagement with Myanmar, to achieve its long-term interest and also to stabilise Myanmar, this commentary recommends a regional approach. This complementary approach, involving Naypidaw's neighbours — Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh and even China — would help India achieve its primary objectives. Two questions need to be addressed. What is the need for a regional approach if India is already engaged in a bilateral arrangement with Myanmar? And how can India pursue such an approach? First question first, on the need for a regional approach in Myanmar for India. There is so much of an international focus on Myanmar, with a widespread expectation that the reforms process move forward and become irreversible. It is even more important that the reforms also expand to include economic and societal reforms, ultimately leading to a stable Myanmar — politically, economically and ethnically. A stable Myanmar is in the interest of India, especially with regard to its renewed Look East strategy. A stable Myanmar is also in the interest of Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and even China, for the instability affects all these countries as has been seen in recent months. Consider the following events: the Rohingya unrest is spilling over into Bangladesh, Thailand and even Malaysia. Being stateless people, the Rohingya plight has been attracting substantial interest all over the Muslim world, especially in the Middle East. The statelessness, violence and the helplessness of the international community, is cornering a substantial space in the social media of these Muslim countries. If left unattended, the Rohingya issue will become a Palestine of the east — becoming a cause and reason for alienation and anger among the Muslim youth. It is in the interest of the region and the rest of international community that the Rohingya issue does not become another rallying point for radical groups. With no basic skills, they can never become even economic migrants and will remain a huge burden on the host countries. Though Bangladesh, Thailand and Malaysia are facing the immediate brunt of migration and exodus, India will not remain unaffected. Though small in number, the Rohingyas have already reached India. Besides the Rohingya issue, Myanmar is yet to reach an understanding with all the ethnic minorities: two groups, in particular, needs to be focussed — the Kachins and the Karens, bordering China and Thailand, respectively. The resumption of violence in the Kachin have brought China in, especially its Yunnan province. The headquarters of the Kachin Independence Army is close to the border and China is extremely apprehensive of any refugee inflow into Yunnan. Besides, there is a substantial Kachin population in China, and there has been a healthy interaction between the Kachins and the Chinese across the border. While China may not want to cut off its relationship with the Kachins completely, for it has invested substantially in the Kachin State, Beijing will have to look into a larger relationship with Naypidaw which has been under strain in recent months. Thanks to the American pivot, international and regional interest and the new investments in Myanmar pouring from all over, Beijing is no more the sole guardian of that country. Some of the recent reversals of Chinese investments in Myanmar like the scrapping of Myitsone dam project on the Irrawaddy river and the local protests in Monywa and Mandalay against Chinese copper mining during the last two years highlight the growing faultlines. More than its investments and its linkages with the Kachins, China will be more worried about its declining influence in Myanmar. How is China likely to respond? Will it be a positive response with attempts to compete with the rest, or will Beijing try to upset the balance in Myanmar? China will always remain crucial for the future stability of Myanmar; if it decides to negatively engage, the positive developments taking place today in Myanmar will suffer and become slow. International efforts should not aim at cornering China and make its presence irrelevant; rather it should be ensured that there is a healthy competition. Thailand and Laos, two other countries which share the borders and rivers with Myanmar, also have substantial stakes, including migration, economic investments and infrastructural building. While political reforms within Myanmar are taking place at a faster pace, economic and financial reforms are way behind. If the current pace has to make Myanmar stable, there has to be an overall reform process. Poor infrastructure, presence of ethnic armies and the resulting migration, lack of adequate financial institutions and independent judiciary — all these factors will play a crucial role in ensuring success in regional and international investments. No country can ensure the above in Myanmar on its own. India's investments in Sittwe port and dredging the Kaladan river should be seen in the above background. New Delhi may not able to achieve much on its own, in building the physical infrastructure in Myanmar, its financial reforms and the continuation of the political process. All these three are vital for New Delhi's political and economic investments — its third generation Look East policy and, more importantly, making Myanmar as the gateway to Southeast Asia. A politically stable Myanmar, with adequate financial reforms, is in India's strategic interests. Can India achieve the above on its own? India will have to work with Myanmar's neighbours, to achieve its national and long-term interests. While there will be an element of competition, especially with China, this cannot be seen as an "either-or" option. Now the second question — how can India ensure that there is a regional approach in realising its long-term interests in Myanmar? There are already a few initiatives in place, including the BIMSTEC and Kunming Initiative. India will have to complement the existing approaches through a comprehensive but Myanmar-centred strategy. India's Northeast should become the nucleus of this initiative, involving Bangladesh, Thailand, Singapore, Laos and even China, especially the Yunnan province. Perhaps, there is need for New Delhi to start a “Guwahati Initiative”, making the Northeast as the core of a complimentary approach along with its bilateral engagements with Myanmar. New Delhi is too far from the region and needs local stakeholders, especially in India's Northeast. This complimentary strategy should not be seen as New Delhi-led, rather Northeast-led. This will make the Northeast as the heart of the region and will help India in pursuing its foreign policy closer to Myanmar along with its neighbours. In fact, New Delhi should see Northeast-Myanmar Bangladesh-Thailand as one integrated region. The above will also address two other primary problems of India; providing an outlet to its Northeast via Bangladesh and Sittwe, and in the process also bring Dhaka in. The Guwahati Initiative should also have a strong component of the civil society besides being led primarily by the Northeastern states, with Delhi in the backdrop. Let there be an independent and open summit in Guwahati inviting the regional stakeholders of the above countries, to find a road-map for the future of this region. Perhaps, there may be new answers and constructive ideas in taking this process forward. Outside the car rallies and cultural programmes, there is so much that such an initiative could offer. The Guwahati Initiative need not be an alternative approach, but a complementary one to the existing bilateral relationship between India and Myanmar. A politically and economically stable Myanmar, well integrated into both regions —South and Southeast Asia — is in everyone's interest. Especially India's. A regional approach may serve New Delhi's interest better, and as a growing power, India should accept this responsibility and
deliver.
The writer is Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.
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‘Wrong’ side of the West Yes, there are many things in the West that are just the opposite of what we have in India — the mode of conversation and address, customs and practices, faiths and beliefs, superstitions and sayings, chores and methodology, style and form, dressing and designing, life-style and attitudes to adopt, etc. Cat, which is generally perceived to be an animal bringing bad luck if sighted crossing ones way in India, is the best pet and pal in the US. Similarly, the owl is a symbol of fortune there which, if it toots and hoots at the night here, is considered ominous. Pig is considered a cute animal and people are seen posing for a photograph with one. Bears, with their faithful cousins as stuffed teddies, are the darlings of every child although a bear-hug may just be a touch-and-go relationship. Our “madaris” eeked an earning out of them till Maneka Gandhi arrived on the scene. When we make gifts and receive them, we never open the packets in front of the person gifting while in the West, the gift pack is opened and appreciated abundantly the moment it’s presented. And it’s bad manners to call someone if he or she is not expecting you on the phone. The first thing to be asked is if that was the “best time to call” or “Wonder if I am disturbing you!” Before pressing the door-bell, you have to make sure you did it for good purpose and not just to enquire if “Susan Joe lives somewhere close” to their house! At the store you tell the person on the counter — “Hey, I have a question for you!” The person manning the counter would always greet you by saying “Hi!”, Or “Hi there!” or, “How are you doing today!” You will never jump the queue for you might be scoffed at and spurned, or just curtly told, “The queue starts here!” There, on being signalled to pull over, the cop comes to you and your getting down or approaching him may be perceived to be “offensive”. The cyclists may be looked down upon as being dispensable hoi-polloi and not as “affluent” here, but they are considered to be the people who care for pollution as also their health in the West. There is only a driver in the bus who also issues you the travel pass. At places you pay while getting down, and not boarding. The electricity switches turn on when turned up. You eat dinner first and take your drinks later. Beggars do not really beg you in the name of God, but “If you could spare some money; food, beer or cigarette!” While we keep saving all through our life to cater to even the third generation, the slogan there is — “Eat, drink and be merry; tomorrow you may die”. It’s really not unusual for a man to have fourth wife and a woman to have as many Exs — both rearing children of one another. If you draw someone’s portrait or caricature you need to have his permission. It’s not a “petrol pump” but a “gas station” where you pay first and get the fuel afterwards. You adopt highways there for maintenance and cleanliness while we litter them. Cake-cutting at a ceremony is done after the main course is over. A joke to end it all — Santa asks Banta if he did not have any problem driving on the right side in the US? Banta replies, “Appaan tann India-ch vi raang sad chalde see, tay otthe vi”! — meaning thereby that driving on the wrong side in India makes it easy to drive well in the
US.
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US toughENS stance against Chinese hackers THE US Government is to launch an unprecedented counter-attack on the individual Chinese hackers who are accused of stealing the country’s state and industrial secrets. A series of personal attacks on Chinese hackers is to be launched, with the US naming perpetrators and bringing lawsuits and fines. The American action marks a growing exasperation with Beijing, following 10 years of official warnings from Western governments that the wholesale theft of defence secrets, and valuable business information was being carried out by Chinese hackers.
Unprecedented cyber thefts The US exasperation has been felt in the UK, where the Foreign Secretary William Hague has warned that Western powers are suffering unprecedented levels of cyber theft due to espionage. He fell shy of naming the Chinese but officials behind the scenes left journalists in no doubt that the Chinese were to blame. News of the stiffening of attitude has come at the same time as a significant diplomatic escalation over the issue, with President Barack Obama flagging up the cyber threat in his State of the Union address and particularly focusing in on the threat to the computerised systems that control the critical national infrastructure, systems such as electricity, gas and telecommunications, all that has been claimed as the target of Chinese hackers.
A line has been drawn The US announcement also signals one other important change, that the cyber security industry is now confident that it can identify those who are carrying out the attacks. Up until now attribution has been a difficulty and many times over the past 10 years countries identified as being responsible for cyber crime have claimed that the attacks are simply being routed through their countries but are not actually originating from there. According to Howard Schmidt, who was President Obama’s cyber security tsar until last summer, the US response means that a line has been drawn in the sand. “Since 2010 there has been report after report after report, effectively saying the same thing… but it doesn’t seem to dissuade those responsible and I am pretty sure a lot of this is coming from the Chinese Government, though some will also be coming from other groups. But it doesn’t seem to convince them that they should stop. “The reason for that seems to be that they have so much more to gain from doing this than they have to lose.”
News of the US loss of patience has coincided with a series of signs that indicate that an international consensus on cyber crime is beginning to emerge, with Russia’s President Putin recently announcing that Russia would start moves to crack down on cyber crime. According to sources in the intelligence and cyber worlds the release of the Mandiant report has been deliberately timed to coincide with the US Government announcement of a crackdown on those attacking it.
UK and India to collaborate Rumours of the US response have been circulating in the UK, well in advance of David Cameron’s announcement that the UK would be seeking to co-operate with India to build cyber centres of excellence and indicate an attempt to generate a united front against the Chinese in the light of the hacking activity claimed by Mandiant. “It’s been going on for a while and it’s a massive response,” said one source, who declined to be named. The Chinese have denied the Mandiant claims. In a statement, the Chinese Defence Ministry said the report lacked “technical proof” when it used IP addresses to link hacking to a military unit, adding that many hacking attacks were carried out using hijacked IP addresses.
Reached an intolerable level American exasperation was signalled by Senator Mike Rogers at the opening of the US House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence’s hearing on cyber threats two years ago. “China’s economic espionage has reached an intolerable level and I believe that the United States and our allies in Europe and Asia have an obligation to confront Beijing and demand that they put a stop to this piracy. “Beijing is waging a massive trade war on us all, and we should band together to pressure them to stop. Combined, the United States and our allies in Europe and Asia have significant diplomatic and economic leverage over China, and we should use this to our advantage to put an end to this scourge.”
The Mandiant Report Mandiant, the company that investigated the recent cyber attacks on the New York Times, says: “Our analysis has led us to conclude that APT1 (the most prolific cyber espionage group the company tracks) is likely government-sponsored and one of the most persistent of China's cyber threat actors. The scale and impact of APT1's operations compelled us to write this report. In an attempt to bolster defences against APT1 operations Mandiant is also releasing more than 3,000 indicators as part of the appendix to this report, which can be used with our free tools and our commercial products to search for signs of APT attack activity.”
Source: Mandiant website
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The move follows on from the announcement by the computer security company Mandiant that it had discovered a unit of the Chinese Army based in Shanghai that it claims has stolen hundreds of terrabytes of information from 140 US firms.