P E R S P E C T I V E

neighbours
Pakistan’s turmoil, within
Killings on the LoC and a fake storm rigged up by a cleric have put Pakistan in the spotlight, raising concerns over the military’s intentions and coordination with the ‘revolutionary’. But as a senior officer put it, the army is “too preoccupied with real-life issues to indulge in such expensive luxuries”. A Tribune exclusive on a country at war with itself.
By Syed Talat Hussain
HE came from Canada. Professed revolution in Pakistan. Fired up millions. And in the end cut a deal with the same sordid forces that had threatened to dismantle by laying siege to the national capital Islamabad with the help of thousands of supporters.

• The major players

neighbours
Pakistan’s turmoil, within
Killings on the LoC and a fake storm rigged up by a cleric have put Pakistan in the spotlight, raising concerns over the military’s intentions and coordination with the ‘revolutionary’. But as a senior officer put it, the army is “too preoccupied with real-life issues to indulge in such expensive luxuries”. A Tribune exclusive on a country at war with itself.
By Syed Talat Hussain

The non-revolution: Muhammad Tahirul Qadri, leader of the Mihaj-ul-Quran, delivering a speech before a protest march from Lahore to Islamabad last week. Reuters

HE came from Canada. Professed revolution in Pakistan. Fired up millions. And in the end cut a deal with the same sordid forces that had threatened to dismantle by laying siege to the national capital Islamabad with the help of thousands of supporters.

In a way, Dr Tahirul Qadri, an English-speaking Canadian dual national made famous in the West by his anti-extremism stance, personifies all that is wrong with Pakistan today and strangely also the way it can be fixed. His four-day multi-million-rupee march from Lahore to Islamabad and then a sit-in before Parliament ended in a shameful compromise with the ruling party's negotiating team in which he settled for nothing other than vague promises from the government to tighten up electoral procedures that technically allow marginally better candidates to context the upcoming elections.

This is nothing new. Much of the agreed-upon content is already part of Pakistan's electoral laws, besides being a popular subject of debate in the media. This has been a big come-down from the lofty ideas of “throwing out the assemblies' looters and dacoits who have brought the country on its knees”. That slogans of instant revolution which triggered furore and hype across the country should only produce a useless piece of paper with the messiah dwarfing into hollow-sounding double-speaker overnight, is a national letdown. Another prophet proven false. Another reformer made of clay. While the country is not in a state of national mourning that Dr Qadri's march did not even produce a whimper, there are moans of disappointment and even anger at being led up the garden path again.

Lost opportunity

However, the initial resonance that Dr Qadri's rhetoric had in Pakistan, not just among the poor and the dispossessed but also among the elite, showed how desperate the people are to see a change in their lives and to find a direction. Even his worst critics found no fault when his razor-sharp vitriol fell repeatedly on the failures of democracy and the rapacity of political leaders on whose watch Pakistan's energies have been sapped. Misgovernance is so rampant that his threats to invade Parliament and take over the Houses of power in Islamabad did not evoke universal outrage. The few civil society groups that tried to build the counter argument found themselves in a minority. There is every possibility that if Dr Qadri was not pulling off a stunt, he could well have pulled off a revolution of sorts. Or at least have shaken the status quo to its very foundation.

Such was the intensity of this episode, popularly known as container drama in reference to the fully furnished makeshift iron canopy where the cleric hectored from for days, that the Generals in Rawalpindi huddled to work out contingency plans in case violence broke out in Islamabad leading to arson and looting. For a while the country was in the grip of rumours that this was all stage-managed by the army which wanted to use Dr Qadri to cleanse the political system by delaying elections due in March and extending the interim arrangement to a year, allowing new political players like cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan to have a successful go at the polls. The impression, reinforced by Dr Qadri's fulsome praise of the armed forces along with the judiciary and his relentless attack on the elected members, was quickly dispelled when the army made strong, but indirect overtures in favour of timely elections. The army chief, Gen Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, met the chief election commissioner the day after the announcement of the long march and reiterated commitment to extending all possible support to the institution for free, fair and timely elections.

Troubles mount

The army also went out of its way to fix problematic electoral rolls in the violence-infested city of Karachi by providing security to the staff visiting sensitive localities. A military source confirmed that the General Headquarters (GHQ) was all set to issue an official statement as a rebuttal to the rumours that they were the force behind the man in the “Turkish cap” and “Egyptian robe” breathing fire against politicians. “We are too preoccupied with real-life issues to indulge in such expensive luxuries,” snapped a senior officer when asked about the possibility of a GHQ-Qadri nexus.

More than denial, this statement is a one-sentence description of the range of threats that the army sees on the security radar on a daily basis. As Dr Qadri planned to charge towards Islamabad, suicide bombers struck in Balochistan against the Shia-Hazra community, killing hundreds and injuring even more. The Hazaras took to the streets and sat on the road in freezing temperatures along with 84 bodies that they refused to bury till the government in Balochistan was dismissed and Governor's rule was imposed. After much reluctance, Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf agreed to impose Governor's rule but kept intact a dysfunctional provincial assembly.

The crisis was defused but such was the incomplete nature of the prime ministerial order that the dismissed chief minister, who throughout this grim crisis stayed calmly abroad and never bothered to even speak to his ministers regarding any action, continues to pretend to be the man in charge. These dangerous theatrics threaten a province on the edge and are a perpetual worry for the army that believes a lot of foreign funding is pouring in this strategic area to spread instability.

News from other parts of Pakistan was not reassuring either. In the restive border province of Khayber Pakhtoonkhwa, militants attacked police check posts and killed paramilitary troops in dozens. At the scenic Swat valley, showcased as the success story of counter-terrorism, years-long peace was shattered by a deadly attack on a religious centre with several casualties. A political assassination in Karachi threw the city in partial turmoil and an assertive Supreme Court ordered an anti-corruption body to arrest none other than the Prime Minister.

And all this happened around the time the whole nation was riveted to the screen watching the brilliant oratory of Dr Qadri that stretched for hours every day.

Army edgy

Even those who do not want to give the army any quarter agree these are not opportune times for the army to be stretching itself to the realm of power politics and getting engaged on an un-winnable front. “We don't think the instinct has changed but the environment is not conducive at all. Getting knee-deep in politics is counter-productive and illogical. They will have the whole nation against them,” says a senior leader of Pakistan Muslim League-N, whose government was dismissed by General Pervaiz Musharraf in October 1999. Since then, the party has been scathing in its critique of the army.

The army under General Kayani has carefully avoided being sucked into political turmoils, in part as a recognition of the damage such forays do to the institutional fabric, and also because it has a plateful of strategic concerns which it cannot meet without the support of a national consensus expressed through a legitimate political system. “Pakistan is too complex a society to be governed by any one institution. For us, the security matrix has become too heavy. Governance is not for us. We want to focus on securing the borders and dealing with terrorism,” says a senior military commander in Rawalpindi.

But the dilemma is that civilians also do not seem to be doing a great job of governing the country. Five years into power, almost all political governments in the four provinces, apart from the centre, have failed to measure up to the basic standards of service delivery. The chronic energy crisis that has stalled the country's economy and crippled modern life is just one of the many sectors where spectacular mismanagement by elected leaders has dwindled the faith in democracy. From the security point of view, the political elite's focus has also been blurry at best and hopeless at worst. Despite being buffeted by rampant terrorism, not a single piece of comprehensive legislation was passed by Parliament to create a legal framework for prosecuting and punishing terrorists.

To top it, there has been appalling mishandling of national economy whose ratings have fallen to an all-time low. This has made it chronically dependent on bank borrowing and printing of currency notes.

A more poignant reminder of the government's blind spot towards grim national challenges has come in the form of tensions on the Line of Control with India, where accusations and counter-accusations over the killing and maiming of each other’s soldiers continue.

The string of unfortunate events has been completely ignored by the government which seems to be consumed by and preoccupied with inane and petty pursuits such as striking silly deals with Dr Qadri, who in the end turned out to be a friendly showman against the ruling party's opponent, the Pakistan Muslim League.

“The LoC events have received extraordinary hype in India and we see a real danger of this going to the next level,” says a military officer monitoring these developments on a “moment-to-moment basis”. However, none of the political parties have taken a firm and detailed position on these events, reflecting how far removed they are from the totality of the challenges the country is faced with.

This indeed frustrates the army and even angers young officers, but there seems to be a consensus that the civilian shenanigans are unavoidable to build a stable political order, whose biggest test now is the upcoming elections — the only issue that has the fullest attention of the army and the civilians.

The writer is a Pakistani columnist and TV anchor.

The major players

UNEASY TIMES: Riot police outside Parliament during the protest by Qadri’s supporters in Islamabad. Reuters

Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP)
Headed by Asif Ali Zardari

This an electoral extension of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), formed in 2002 by the PPP for the purpose of complying with electoral rules. It is the largest party, and currently holds 127 seats in the National Assembly. It heads the ruling coalition and forms the provincial government in Sindh and is the official Opposition in Punjab. The labour class is its vote bank.

Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N)
Headed by Nawaz Sharif

This is the second largest party in Parliament. A rightist conservative party, it has been led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It currently holds 91 seats. The party holds a socially and religiously moderate stance. It is becoming more vocal in its anti-establishment (since 1999) and pro-status-quo stance. The business class is its vote bank.

Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q)
Headed by Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain

After the PML-Q gave support to the ruling coalition, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi of the party was named Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2012 in a deal with the PPP. A centrist conservative and nationalist party, it currently holds 50 seats in the National Assembly, The PML (Q) was born from dissenters of the PML (N) following the arrest and exile of Nawaz Sharif. The nationalist agricultural class in rural areas is its vote bank.

Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)
Headed by Altaf Hussain

The fourth largest party, it is known for its sway in the Muhajir community in the urban areas of Sindh. The MQM is one of the few socially liberal political parties, and organised the largest rallies in protest against the actions of al-Qaeda on September 11, 2001, demonstrating sympathy with the victims of terrorist attacks. It has the second position in the Sindh Assembly.

Awami National Party (ANP)
Headed by Asfandyar Wali Khan

The ANP has 13 seats, and runs the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government. A leftist and secularist party, it represented 2 per cent votes in the 2008 elections. Currently part of the PPP-led coalition government, it is the largest Pashtun nationalist party.

Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)
Headed by Fazal-ur-Rehman (JUI-F)

A coalition of religious and theocratic parties, it includes the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Jafaria Pakistan, Jamiat Ahle Hadith and a few other smaller groups. The JUI-F, leading member of the group, practically left the alliance to take part in the 2008 general elections and is a part of the coalition PPP government. The religious alliance is strong in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The MMA in the National Assembly is JUI-F.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)
Headed by Imran Khan

The party was founded in 1996 in Lahore. It boycotted the general elections in 2008. It has now emerged as a significant counterweight to the PPP and PML (N). While the PML-N's former stronghold consisted of the urban areas of Punjab and the PPP drew most of its support from Sindh, the PTI claims it represents all Pakistanis, regardless of religious, ethnic, linguistic, and provincial backgrounds.

Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)

An rightist party, it is advocating an Islamic and democratic form of government. The party is led by Syed Munawar Hasan as the Emir of JI. Founded during the British period, the JI maintains close ties with international Muslim groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood.