New Delhi, December 1
Listing possible reasons, Professor Kanti Bajpai, a scholar on international relations, has claimed that a war between India and China is unlikely unless one country gets highly provocative. Speaking at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) last evening, he buttressed his argument saying there are at least four reasons which will hold back the two neighbours on their respective side of the Himalayas.

He was delivering the second YB Chavan memorial lecture titled ‘India and China - can the giants of Asia cooperate’. YB Chavan was the Defence Minister following the India-China conflict in 1962. Kanti Bajpai is a visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University Singapore. He has a deep understanding of the Sino-Indian relations.

Bajpai said though war is always a possibility, it seems unlikely between India and China. There are least four reasons that will hold back the either side. They are: Both sides are equipped with nuclear weapons, meaning thereby that they will have to exercise extreme caution; Both sides have air power that will make a conventional war of any duration and decisiveness very difficult; China has the advantage of the heights on the Tibetan plateau, but its ability to send large forces into India in this sector is limited by geographical constraints and China will not be able to hold back a counter attack by the IAF as its supply routes can be easily interdicted. Lastly, Tibetan instability will prevent China from opting for warfare against India.

The two countries have worked consistently since 1988 to put in place a diplomatic, political, military, and economic system to maintain stability and lay the foundation for a border settlement. He stressed that the system has four components - border negotiations, high-level summits, confidence-building measures and bilateral trade - and referred to them as pillars. Since 1988, there have been more summits between the presidents, PMs and foreign ministers than in the previous 40 years.

NN Vohra, Governor of J&K and a former Defence Secretary and Home Secretary, chaired the session and suggested that the leadership of India and China should put together an approach which is, among other things, harmonious with the India-China defence strategy and external affairs. This will strengthen the relationship between the two nations.