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One step forward
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Athletics gold, at last!
Hike in defence budget not enough
The bell has gone
China’s expanding influence in S. Asia Window on Pakistan
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One step forward IN the high-profile Beant Singh assassination case the Punjab and Haryana High Court on Tuesday commuted the death sentence of Jagtar Singh Hawara to life imprisonment. The death sentence of the other accused, Balwant Singh, remains unchanged. There are two main considerations in awarding the death sentence. One, the capital punishment is given in “the rarest of rare cases”. The assassination of the former Chief Minister of Punjab and 17 others on August 31, 1995, definitely falls in this category. Two, the guilt of the accused must be established beyond any doubt. In the case of Jagtar Singh Hawara, who was awarded the death sentence in July, 2007, the high court observed that Hawara was not found near Chandigarh on July 30 and 31 in 1995. “His case is boundary line for death. He is sentenced to life and will not be released till death”. Hawara has got the benefit of doubt and escaped the gallows. However, the capital punishment of Balwant Singh has been confirmed. The court took into account the three confessional statements Balwant Singh had made about his involvement in the killing of Beant Singh. The life sentence of the three other accused has been upheld by the high court. Despite the seriousness of the case it has taken 15 years for courts to reach this stage of the judicial process. The case is still far from over. The jailbreak by three main accused – Hawara, Tara and Bheora – also contributed to the delay. The use of a manual typewriter to record the statements of the accused at the initial stage was another dilatory factor. Anyway, the case brings back memories of those dark days when Punjab was in the grip of militancy. Former Chief Minister Beant Singh is credited with bringing militancy to an end. He had given a free hand and full political support to the police led by the then DGP, Mr K.P.S. Gill. Punjab has paid a heavy price for militancy, especially in terms of lives lost.
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Wait for HC verdict AS the Karnataka High Court is expected to deliver its crucial verdict only on Monday, October 18, with regard to the two petitions challenging the Assembly Speaker’s disqualification of 16 MLAs (11 BJP rebels and five Independents), Governor Hans Raj Bhardwaj would do well to advise Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa to seek the second trust vote in the State Assembly not on October 14, but after the High Court judgment. This would be a reasonable option available for the Governor to resolve the current constitutional crisis in the state because a second trust vote on October 14 would lose its value if the High Court subsequently quashes the disqualification of 16 MLAs and declares the Speaker’s order of October 11 as null and void. Whatever may be the BJP’s stand on the issue, a second floor test has become imperative for Mr Yeddyurappa to establish his government’s constitutional legitimacy after the chaotic scenes witnessed in the House on October 11. Notwithstanding the differing opinions of experts and jurists over the merits of voice vote during a confidence motion, it would be eminently sensible for Speaker K.G. Bopaiah to have a division of votes. Only then would the Governor be able to know the total number of MLAs present in the House during voting, how many of them are for and against the government, how many are neutral and how many have abstained. Clearly, a simple voice vote is wholly inadequate in a confidence motion. The Governor’s letter to the Chief Minister to seek a fresh floor test on October 14 is a pointer that his recommendation to the President to impose President’s rule in Karnataka only the previous day was hasty and unwarranted, if not unconstitutional. He has unnecessarily kicked off a controversy and roped in the Centre by recommending President’s rule. Moreover, his letter to the Speaker to ensure the presence of all MLAs in the House during the trust vote on October 11 was also questionable. Not surprisingly, the BJP has dubbed the Governor’s actions as partisan and demanded his recall. But the BJP leadership, too, has no scruples. Where was the need for it to take all MLAs to New Delhi for a head count? The BJP, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress have spent crores of rupees this time on hopping MLAs from one city to the other and lodging them in five-star hotels ostensibly to prevent poaching.
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Athletics gold, at last!
KRISHNA
Poonia, Harwant Kaur and Seema Antil winning gold, silver and bronze medals in the discus throw event at the Commonwealth Games on Monday, was a dazzling event indeed, which in a way overshadowed the fact that Poonia’s gold was the first in athletics by any Indian after “Flying Sikh” Milkha Singh’s 440-yard gold won way back in the 1958 Cardiff Games. India has thus had to wait for 52 long years to get a single track and field gold medal. In other words, two generations have gone by without an Indian returning with a gold medal in the prestigious event. Things are not much better in other departments. When Abhinav Bindra won the 10-metre air rifle event at the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, he became only the first Indian to claim an individual gold medal at the Olympic Games ever and India’s first gold medal since 1980, when the men’s field hockey team had won the gold. Once the celebration for Krishna Poonia’s achievements is over, it is necessary to mull over the reasons for this medal drought. The shortcoming is so pronounced that some even attribute it to our genes. That is ridiculous; so we have to pinpoint the real reasons. Apparently, the lack of suitable sports environment is the main culprit. The few who shine do so mostly on their own merit, despite and not because of official support. Babudom has taken over sports administration thoroughly and the players themselves are reduced to being bit actors in this large game. After the awards ceremony, bronze medalist and national record holder Seema Antil lashed out at Milkha Singh for having predicted that India would not win a single medal in athletics at the Delhi Games. Perhaps the legendary runner was articulating the frustration of a man who had seen the oppressive atmosphere from inside.
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Speech is civilisation itself. The word, even the most contradictory word, preserves contact — it is silence which isolates. — Thomas Mann
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Hike in defence budget not enough ON the eve of the 78th anniversary of the Indian Air Force last week, Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik made several strategic pronouncements, including that the Air Force is to acquire 250 to 300 fifth generation fighter aircraft in a joint development and production arrangement with Russia at a cost of $30 billion. Taken together with other military acquisitions over the next 10 to 15 years, India will be spending nearly $100 billion, the largest spurt in defence modernisation ever. But this alone will not alter the strategic environment to India’s advantage. It will also require new thinking and political will. The principal beneficiaries of the drive are to be the Air Force and the Navy which together have traditionally received less than half of the Army’s share in funding. This belated correction has stemmed not from any rational analysis but classic numerology: maintaining a 1.2 million-strong Army, 39 and a half squadron Air Force and a 100-ship Navy. The new British coalition government is contemplating deep cuts in the defence budget as part of reducing the budget deficit. Being considered is a freeze on aircraft carriers, downsising tanks and aircraft meant for Cold War contingencies and even reviewing the Trident nuclear deterrent. But no increase or decrease in defence capability can be ordered without a strategic defence and security review (SDSR). This warning came from Defence Secretary Liam Fox to Prime Minister David Cameron. No one knows how the military capability exercise is done in India where, leave alone an SDSR, not even a defence review or White Paper has ever been issued. Yet ACM Naik, who is also the current Chairman of the rotating Chief of Staff Committee, said that the new capabilities were “in tune with national aspirations”. He explained, “even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that India’s area of responsibility extends from the Hormuz Straits to the Malacca Straits and beyond.” Each service does its future planning singly and not as an integrated whole to achieve a collective capability. Service Chiefs look out for clues about strategic aspirations from prime ministerial speeches at the combined commanders’ conferences and other heady occasions. The Army is currently engaged in a seminal exercise of transformation which has been “uplinked” with its long-term perspective plans and with those of the other two Services. It is noteworthy that the 11th Defence Plan (2007-12) is in its fourth year and not yet approved by the government. Nor has the 15-year long-term Perspective Plan (2007-2022). Further, the defence acquisition process is so warped that Rs 50,000 crore has gone unspent over the last 10 years for which no one is accountable. The DRDO, at best an unreliable and erratic performer, is one cause for a rise in spending. Still further, there is no integrated defence plan sanctioned by the government and ad-hocism and the Defence Secretary, in the absence of a Chief of Defence Staff, play a key role in shaping the future defence and security landscape. Otherwise what would explain the impossible two-and-a-half-front scenario: fighting conventional wars with Pakistan and China and combating an insurgency? Such a contingency has never emerged from any government directive based on an SDSR coupling defence and diplomacy — that is hard and, soft power — and, therefore, the concept never ratified by the government. Take the Army’s much-celebrated Cold Start doctrine which has sent shivers down Pakistan’s spine. According to Army Chief Gen VK Singh, Cold Start is not an official doctrine but part of new thinking. All novel strategic thinking on the part of Service Chiefs seldom attracts government sanction. So, most innovative thinking is done in a political vacuum giving the government the dubious advantage of deniability, whether it is a two-front war or Cold Start. Four years ago, soon after the Chinese shot down a space satellite, the Air Force organised a seminar on the domination of aerospace. Then Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee ruled that India’s policy was benign and only defensive assets would be deployed in higher space. The IAF, however, wants to be a network-centric aerospace power. The Services cannot be faulted for advanced thinking to get out of the strategic static as governments have never and are unlikely in the future to indulge in future thinking and planning, especially on defence and security. Lack of political direction and strategic guidance have led to half-baked organisational structures, systems and procedures. So this year, the government has decided to upgrade and acquire $ 50 billion worth of aircraft, ships and submarines. The Army, which has hogged funds all this while, is to be starved of money for the modernisation of its artillery and air defence. It is entirely a different matter that these big ticket items of conventional deterrence are unlikely to be employed as the wars and conflicts of the future will be low intensity which require different skills and equipment. India has been fighting insurgency and terrorism for the last three decades with inadequate and inappropriate arms and equipment. That is why when Kargil happened and the government rushed to Israel and South Africa with an SOS, then Army Chief Gen V.P. Malik declared: We will fight with what we have and later embarked on a futile exercise of downsising manpower to create funds for modernisation, symbolising acute ad-hocism. In the late 1980s, Air Chief Marshal S.K. Kaul at a conference of industry and the Air Force said that the IAF did not need a deep strike aircraft. His advice was ignored and the government went ahead with a deal with Russia for Su-30 which is now the mainstay of the IAF. Under almost similar conditions earlier, the Jaguar aircraft was acquired at the behest of the government. The acquisition of the haunted Bofors gun was pushed by the government overriding recommendations for guns in the same caliber. What this suggests is that governments take keen interest in the purchase of weapons involving big sums of money. What is evident today is the scramble for making good the horrible deficiencies in aircraft and squadron strength which have declined from 39 and a half squadrons to 28. ACM Naik said that 50 per cent of the Air Force equipment was either obsolete or obsolescent at a time when the neighbourhood was volcanic. This unacceptable decline in operational readiness would not have occurred had there been an integrated long-term modernisation plan approved and sanctioned by the government. As a rising power with a 9 per cent growth rate, India is expected to have considerable military capability with advanced technology to appear to be an assertive power. But converting military power into political and diplomatic gain will not come easily, certainly not from the so-called Integrated Headquarters of the Ministry of Defence which is a big
lie.
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The bell has gone
I
was a student of Sir Harcourt Butler School. Located at Jakhu, it had its playground about 50 yards below the school building. Whenever the school bell rang, the students within the hearing range of the bell used to shout, “The bell has gone” just to inform the students playing on the ground to come up and attend the classes. When I had joined the school, the sentence was so alien to me that in order to confirm its literal meaning, I used to run to the place where the school-gong and hammer were hung. And on seeing both the ‘dreaded things’ in place, I used to question mark the shouts of my school-fellows. When I understood the meaning, I used ‘go’ in my examination-paper as “In our house, my grandfather’s conch-shell goes daily in the Pooja Room”. I was not given any marks for my creativity. ‘The bell has gone’ syndrome continued with me when I was in early teens. I was passing by a sweetmeat shop when a friend desired to have laddus. Though laddu is my weakness, yet I said ‘no’ to his proposal because I told him that I was a vegetarian. He cared little about my reply and had laddus by himself while I wondered at the skill of the workmen who could give exact form and character of laddu, barfi, peda etc. to meat to make it sweetmeat. Urdu was quite popular then and whenever I accompanied my father, his acquaintances used to ask him, “Mizaj Sharif?” (How are you?) And I had learnt by rote his standing reply, “Khairiat Hai” (All is God’s grace). One day when I was alone, one of my father’s acquaintances asked me, “Ism Sharif?” (What is your name?), I said, “Khairiat Hai”. He thought that my name was Khairiat Dutt s/o Jogeshwar Dutt and for him I remained ‘Khairiat’ till he left Shimla. I grew up further and joined the Secretariat. At the start of a new year, I asked one of the clerks to display the government-calendars in the rooms of all senior officers and make a report to me. He did the job and presented the report: ‘Chief Secretary-hanged in his room; Financial Commissioner-hanged in his room; Secretary-Finance-hanged in his room’ and so on. I called him and asked, “Please go to the rooms of all these officers and see if they are still alive.” He was non-plus, “But why, Sir?” There and then I heard the shouts of my school-mates, “The bell has gone.” I said to the clerk, “I was just joking. Thank you, Avinash. You did a good job.” Avinash left the room totally
flummoxed.
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China’s expanding influence in S. Asia Nearly half of the world's seaborne trade passes through the Indian Ocean, and its coastal states are the source of some 60 per cent of the world's oil and a third of its gas reserves. To satiate its appetite for energy, China has embarked on projects in several countries situated along the sea routes stretching from the Malacca Straits to the Cape of Good Hope. Some of these countries lie in South Asia — and that is India's concern. China has a stake in every South Asian country. Beijing has expanded its relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka and seeks to use its leverage in the region. That fact disturbs India, its neighbour and rival for clout in South Asia. It also worries the US, which, while being indebted to China, and admiring its economic progress, feels uneasy at the prospect of authoritarian China becoming Asia's most powerful country. Amicable ties between Beijing and New Delhi are essential for the stability in South Asia. Good trade relations exist despite the sharing of a contested border. But New Delhi is disturbed by China's renewed harping on its claim to the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. This implies that China is not a status quo power but an expanding one. Rivalry between China and India is to some extent inevitable. They are the world's fastest-growing economies, though at the moment China's economy is larger than India's. Indeed, China has the world's second largest economy. But even if India fails to overtake China economically, it will remain a close second to China militarily and economically and also the most serious challenge to China's growing influence and power. Neither will accept that regional stability is synonymous with the primacy of the other. China has tended to believe that the Indo-US nuclear deal of 2006 is directed against it. But it has recognised that the deal suits India and has so far decided not to take a dogmatic stand against it. Chinese investments in South Asia worry India, but they are not improper: indeed, they raise the question why Indian companies do not expand into Nepal, Myanmar or Sri Lanka as boldly as Chinese ones are doing. (Is it, for example, because leading Indian companies tend to look westward; or they are more interested in buying world-profile western companies like Jaguar, Corus and Arcelor Steel than in betting on economic uncertainties in underdeveloped neighbouring countries?) Like India, China will not contribute troops to help NATO in Afghanistan. But in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are at the top of the West's military agenda, China has significant military and economic interests. Since the 1960s China has been a major arms supplier to Pakistan and so far the two countries have remained all-weather friends. China and Pakistan have traditionally valued one another as a strategic hedge against India. For Pakistan, China is a guarantor of security against India. They share a free trade agreement. Trade between Pakistan and China was over $6 billion last year and is expected to rise to the $15 billion mark over the next few years. Beijing also considers Islamabad critical to energy security. Gwadar — 400 km from the Strait of Hormuz — along with a network of rail and roads through Pakistan assures the convenient transport of Middle-Eastern oil and gas to China via its western province of Xinjiang. In Afghanistan, China's interests are linked to Pakistan, India and Central Asia, and its concern that the US could remain indefinitely there. China fears that a long-term American presence in Afghanistan could be the stepping stone to the expansion of the US influence in Central Asia, which in turn could lead to the strategic "encirclement" of China by the US. At the moment China is the largest investor in Afghanistan. The China Metallurgical Group has invested $3.5 billion to develop the world's largest copper field in Anyak. State-owned Chinese companies are likely to pursue Afghanistan's untapped oil, gas and iron resources. The war in Afghanistan has presented Beijing with the chance to become a regional player and major world power. China is concerned that a Taliban victory may result in the extremist ideology being exported to its Muslim Uighurs, but it has shown no sign of putting pressure on Pakistan to stop training terrorists. It has some 30 million Muslims, including the 12 million restive Uighurs of Xinjiang province, which directly borders on Afghanistan. In the land and mountain-locked kingdom of Nepal, China has inspired Maoists and wants to complete a railway line from the Tibetan capital of Lhasa to Kathmandu. In Sri Lanka, the government could not have defeated Tamil separatists without Chinese arms. A vast new port facility is being built in the Sri Lankan town of Hambantota eight months after the end of the country's civil war. China is to lend Sri Lanka about $200m to build a second international airport in the south of the island. Another $100m from Beijing will help boost the island's railway network. The new airport will be near a vast seaport, which is being largely funded with Chinese money. India has blocked China's membership of SAARC, where China has only observer status. Were China to join SAARC it would doubtless be locked in a battle with India for the leadership of the association, and SAARC's smaller members would have to choose between being dominated by democratic India or authoritarian China. The Great Game between Asia's largest and fastest-growing rising powers looks set to continue.
The writer is Visiting Professor, Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi
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Window on Pakistan The Pakistan Army had stopped cooperating with the US forces after three Pakistani soldiers were killed and many injured in a cross-border NATO strike on September 30 despite a top US military official, Admiral Mike Mullen, in a letter to Pakistan Army Chief Gen Ashfaque Parvez Kayani expressing his apology for the "regrettable loss" of lives. Pakistan had added to the US woes by closing the key Torkham crossing on its borders with Afghanistan. Islamabad, despite depending considerably on US military and economic aid, is feeling emboldened in taking an anti-US line because Washington is showing signs of nervousness with the time of US troop withdrawal --- July 2011 --- from Afghanistan nearing fast. Pakistan's unhelpful attitude could be easily noticed during a recent meeting between NATO Sectreaty-General Rasmussen and Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi when the US official admitted that the "attacks (on Pakistani troops) were deliberate", according to The Nation. When Mr Rasmussen urged the Pakistani minister to get the closed border route for entering Afghanistan opened soon, "the Foreign Minister's body language and the tenor of his conversation with the NATO chief was firm this time around", as The Nation commented in an editorial. Mr Qureshi told the NATO chief that the public sentiment prevented the government from allowing vehicular traffic through the key border crossing. Anti-Americanism is, perhaps, the only issue on which there is unanimity among President Asif Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Army Chief Ashfaque Kayani. While it is believed that this will add to the goodwill the Pakistan Army has among the public, taking a stand not helpful to the US is considered the most effective remedy at the moment for saving the beleaguered Zardari-Gilani government. The talk of their getting replaced for bad governance is no longer there. The US, instead of forcefully telling Pakistan to behave in this hour of crisis, is busy with appeasing tactics. It has prevailed upon Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai to hold reconciliation talks not only with the Taliban identified with the Quetta Shura but also with the pro-Pakistan Haqqani network. According to The News, the Karzai government has held direct negotiations with the Haqqani group, though the latter has been fighting fiercely against the NATO troops in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network, based in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area, is known for its close links with foreign militant groups, including Al-Qaida. Earlier, Dawn quoted Wall Street Journal to say that the ISI did all it could to dissuade the Taliban factions from holding negotiations with the Karzai government. The ISI obviously tried to convince the Taliban that the Karzai ministry in any case could not survive after the US-led foreign forces left Afghanistan. The significance of anti-Americanism for achieving political objectives can be understood from the fact that former military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf, too, indulged in such rhetoric while announcing the formation of his All-Pakistan Muslim League in London. Strangely, neither General Musharraf nor the government in Islamabad is worried about the fact that pandering to the anti-American sentiment may lead to the US Congress forcing a cut in aid to Pakistan, which currently stands at $7.5 billion spread over the next five years.
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CHINA is an expanding power in South Asia. That is the real significance of the news that it may build a new nuclear reactor in Pakistan without the approval of the International Atomic Energy Agency or the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and also of the earlier stories about the presence of Chinese troops in the Pakistani half of Kashmir. Moreover, Beijing's wish to construct a road linking western China with the port of Gwadar in north-western Pakistan is just another example of China's determination to expand its influence in South Asia. China regards the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence and seeks to counter America's presence there. 
THE PPP-led Pakistan government, which has been in the most difficult straits after it failed to come up to the people's expectations during the flood-caused crisis, seems to be trying a new strategy to save its sinking ship. The strategy is based on anti-Americanism, getting stronger with every passing day. This explains why Afghanistan-bound NATO trucks passing through Pakistan were getting torched almost every second or third day without the authorities doing anything to prevent it till Sunday when the closed Torkham border crossing was reopened. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan had claimed responsibility, sending across the message that the US drone attacks on the extremist outfit's bases have only helped expand its following. According to media reports, the military drive launched against the Pakistani Taliban is hardly noticeable these days. Pakistan's armed forces look the other way when the extremist elements vent their anger against the US.