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South Asia: Greater scope for regional cooperation On Record |
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Niyogi murder
case: Anomaly in SC ruling
Globalisation: IT shows the way Profile Diversities — Delhi
Letter
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South Asia: Greater scope for regional cooperation THE emergence of regionalism and regionalisation in Europe paved the way for regional cooperation in other parts of the world. According to Ben Rosamond, “regionalism” implies de jure, formal, state-led projects. And “regionalisation” refers to de facto transnational regional economies that emerge in the context of networks of production and exchange among private market actors. From this point of view, South Asia drastically failed in regionalism which prohibited the process of regionalisation. South Asia is one of the most integrated regions (geo-economically) in the world but having unnatural fractured borders (geo-strategically). Unlike in Europe, the people here are not the opinion makers. Most rural people do not know about the physical boundaries of their respective nations. For example, most in rural Punjab are unaware of India beyond New Delhi. As a region, South Asia is the poorest and most overpopulated. About 40 per cent of its population live below poverty line. India alone represents 80 per cent of the region’s population as also its GDP. More than one-sixth of the world’s labour force lives in South Asia. Despite huge differences in physical and demographic factors, all the South Asian countries have low income, high population densities, poor health and low literacy rates. The region is the centre of unstable political systems, pseudo democracies and staunch nationalism. The key indicators of development are continuously alarming in South Asia after the Sub-Saharan Africa. All South Asian countries are predominantly agricultural. All are major importers of food and technology-intensive machinery. South Asian regional cooperation had been a victim of cold war politics. The super power’s phenomena gave impetuous to state-centric politics between the member states, particularly in India and Pakistan. The US was only concentrating upon “containment of communism”. Pakistan had been instrumental for enhancing American interests in West Asia. Eventually, Pakistan was given an opportunity to make Kashmir a “zone of contention”. Thus, cooperation was a distant thing to be thought over. Pakistan joined various defense alliances as a partner of the capitalist block in the early days of cold war and later on turned to Islamic, South West and Central Asian states. India too had friendship with erstwhile USSR in spite of being the leading member of Non-Aligned Movement. Thus, India’s Look East policy seems to be at the cost of South Asian cooperation. The Look Arab and Look East policies harshly ignored the geo-economic and strong socio-cultural bonds of the Indian sub-continent. In 2003, India signed framework trade agreements (FTAs) with Thailand, ASEAN, Afghanistan and Singapore. The FTAs with these states or regional organisations are not surely benefiting. Our trade links with Thailand, before FTA, was surplus for us, but by 2005, there is a deficit. Similarly, the FTAs with ASEAN, China and Japan are unpredictable or highly competitive. SAFTA (SAARC Free Trade Area) seems more promising. One reason for the failure of South Asian cooperation is the anti-India perceptions of other states. Pakistan has been considering South Asian cooperation as India’s hegemonic ambitions. Pakistan seeks larger regional interests by countering the Indian threat. It wants multilateral, extra-regional powers to help contain India. Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka too are against any kind of Indian dominance. But India wants to strengthen itself in forums like GATT and the WTO. India’s neighbours disliked names that seemingly endorsed its pre-eminence. That’s why, while the intra-regional trade is hardly 5 per cent in South Asia, it is 35 per cent in ASEAN and 65 per cent in EU. Undoubtedly, there is immense potential for South Asian cooperation. The integrated geo-economy paves the way to harness natural resources like water. The regions, though artificially divided, are socio-culturally intertwined. The areas of immediate cooperation are agriculture, communication, education, prevention of drug trafficking and drug abuse, rural development, terrorism, disaster and crisis control management in case of natural calamities, joint projects, specially hydro-power projects. Cooperation in these areas will help reduce tension. Nepal has the potential of becoming the hydro-electric capital for South Asia providing cheap electricity. Bangladesh, with its natural gas resources and seabed, could provide the resource base for fertilisers and petro-chemical industries. India can supply the capital goods and medium-tech consumer goods and new technology (as computer software) for the whole South Asia. Till now this region has been known as one of chronic instability and economic disintegration. SAARC has been accused of being a “paper tiger” and “going slow”. It should learn lessons from the Association of South East Asian Nations. Though there were serious conflicts between Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines, with the passage of time and successful trade relations, the disputes could be managed, if not solved. ASEAN’s primary focus was on learning to live with conflicts through effective measures of conflict management. Its main focus was to fulfill the ambitious programme of socio-economic development. One important objective of this successful association was to secure South-East Asia from the ambitious designs of the US and China. Therefore, the ASEAN model is significant for South Asian cooperation. SAARC can be rejuvenated by implementing certain ASEAN strategies. The end of cold war and 9/11 left traces on South Asian cooperation. SAPTA (SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement, 1995) and SAFTA (2004) took birth. Clearly, strong forces of suppressed socio-cultural ties are blooming today. The pressure of market economy warrants more and more trade relations. It has opened tremendous avenues for cooperation. Regional Cooperation in South Asia will definitely make it self-reliant and provide safeguards against harsh affects of globalisation. Besides, peace through economic cooperation (Mitrany, W. Isard, C.H. Anderson and others) can be fruitful in South Asia. Politico-economy seems to be more practical. Perhaps, increasing interdependence would push core issues to the periphery. Pakistan President General Musharraf, during his visit to India in April, pointed out that the era of geo-politics was over and that it had been replaced by economy. The peace process is irreversible. Though how these realities would materialise is unpredictable, South Asia is looking forward to more exciting
times. The writer is Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Department of Correspondence Courses, Punjabi University, Patiala
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On Record
WITH the international crude oil prices hovering around $ 65 per barrel and the oil import bill set for a jump of over Rs 55,000 crore, to reach over Rs 1,75,000 crore this year, India is heading for a major energy crisis. With a population of around 110 crore, we cannot afford to follow the high-energy consumption pattern of the West that has resulted in an indiscriminate exploitation of fossil fuels and high pollution levels, says Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). The situation will aggravate if necessary steps are not taken in time, he says. An advocate of sustainable development, Dr Pachauri is an international expert on energy issues and is associated with various organisations. “The lack of any comprehensive national energy policy, inadequate public transport system and disregard of domestic renewable energy resources has led to the present energy crisis”, he says in an interview to The Sunday Tribune. Excerpts: Q: In view of the ongoing energy crisis and the rising fuel prices, what options are available to India to sustain its economic growth? A: India has limited options today as we have ignored the public transport system and promoted the use of personal cars and two-wheelers as the preferred means of transport in urban areas. The rise in oil prices and the oil import bill will have a ripple effect on the economy as the cost of production of industrial goods and services will also rise. I said in 1985 that India should prepare for higher oil prices, but critics laughed it off when the crude prices crashed in the early 90s. However, with the slowdown of supply and the rise in demand from even developing economies like India and China, we are facing that situation. Had successive governments paid the required attention to, say, the Indian Railways, our dependence on imported oil would have been substantially lower. Even today, we can substantially reduce our petrol and diesel expenditure on personal vehicles, by emphasising on the public road transport and railways. Q: The government has ignored the renewable energy sector despite its tremendous potential. Why? A: We have failed to realise the importance of renewable energy and bio-fuels in our energy mix all these years. The Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources, set up over 20 years ago, has failed to play a significant role. First, the government should make it mandatory for housing societies, government buildings and industrial houses to use solar heating systems. It would bring down the domestic energy bill and the consumption of conventional energy. Secondly, instead of providing a subsidy on kerosene supplied through the public distribution system, the government should subsidise solar energy applications. Third, it should offer attractive incentives to the individuals and industrial houses supplying electricity generated from wind power plants or other renewable sources to the power grid. We need to encourage R&D in this sector to develop cost-effective products. One should realise that only a miniscule of the total 45,000-MW potential in wind power has been harnessed. Through proper tax incentives and R&D, we can give a big push to this sector, besides solar power. Q: How do you view the recent Indo-US nuclear deal? A:
The Indo-US energy dialogue has enormous potential for bilateral cooperation between the two countries. It will enable India to import nuclear fuel from the US and other countries, an action critical for our nuclear plants. However, India should also pursue the Iran-India gas pipeline — the idea that I had floated 16 years ago — and other gas pipelines in the region to meet our growing energy needs. Q: What will be the impact of indiscriminate exploitation of limited fossil fuels and coal reserves on the economy and environment? A: Adverse effects like global warming are already visible. The global temperature has increased by 0.6 degree Celsius over the last century. If the present trends of energy consumption continue, the global temperature is likely to rise by 1.4 degree to 5.8 degree Celsius by the end of this century. Even if the temperature would change around two degrees, it would lead to the disruption of our climate cycle, drastic changes in the patter of monsoons and more floods and droughts in the region. Q: Agriculture is still dependent on manual and animal power for energy. How will we be able to meet their energy requirements? A: We should not blindly follow the western pattern of high consumption. The US is by far the largest user of oil. Given the large populations in China and India, both cannot afford to consume energy at the US’ rate. We need to revise our growth rate parameters and balance the high growth rate of GDP with rural people’s participation. And this cannot be done at the cost of our environment and forest reserves. Q: How can we meet the growing energy demand? A: Despite the growing energy crisis, I am optimistic about the future. Civil society will have to put pressure on the politicians and the policymakers to change their viewpoint. Rich people need to be more sensitive about the impact of their lifestyle on the lives of poor people as well as the environment. The government can and should play a more pro-active role to save the
situation. |
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Niyogi murder
case: Anomaly in SC ruling
The Supreme Court recently disallowed the petition seeking a review of its earlier judgement in the Shankar Guha Niyogi murder case and thus left an anomaly. Niyogi’s wife, Asha, filed the petition for a review of its January 20 ruling, which sentenced Paltan Mallah to life imprisonment. Others were acquitted who, according to the trial court, had hired him to kill Niyogi, Chhattisgarh’s noted trade union leader. Niyogi was murdered in Bhilai on Sept 28,1991. The case was handed over to the CBI. On the basis of circumstantial evidence, nine persons were put on trial. Durg’s Additional Sessions Judge T.K. Jha gave his ruling on June 23, 1997. Three of the accused, Naveen Shah, Chandra Baksh Singh and Baldeo Singh were acquitted. Paltan Mallah was awarded death sentence (subject to the High Court’s confirmation). The remaining five — Chandrakant Shah, Gyan Prakash alias Gyanu, Avadhesh Rai, Abhay Kumar Singh and Moolchand Shah — were given life sentence. The Madhya Pradesh High Court acquitted all the accused with the observation that the “circumstances found proved in this case are wholly insufficient to establish that these accused persons, or any of them, conspired to cause the murder of Niyogi, and that Paltan Mallah killed him, much less in pursuance of the conspiracy”. A Supreme Court division bench comprising Justice K.G. Balakrishnan and Justice A.R.Lakshmanan, while disposing of the appeal against the High Court verdict, sentenced Paltan Mallah to life imprisonment while upholding the acquittal of the other accused. Mallah hailed from Nibahi of Deoria district in Uttar Pradesh. He was working in a cycle repair shop at Bhilai. According to the prosecution, he had been involved in various criminal activities in the area. Accused Gyan Prakash, on behalf of the other accused industrialists, reportedly gave him Rs 20,000 for killing Niyogi. After completing his job, Mallah fled to Uttar Pradesh in a red motorcycle and had been residing there. Mallah was arrested on August 21,1993 in Gorakhpur. According to his memo statement, the Gorakhpur police recovered a country-made pistol, an American revolver and several cartridges which he had buried in his home at Nibahi. The police also recovered the motorcycle. It had no registration number; its chassis and engine numbers had been rubbed off. No one had brought before the trial court that Mallah had a grudge against Niyogi. The trial judge records that “Paltan Mallah had no personal animosity against labour leader Shankar Guha Niyogi. He had no motive for this offence (murder) except that he received money from those industrialists against whom Niyogi was organising the labour movement”. Once the industrialists are absolved of any part in the conspiracy, as the Supreme Court has done, Mallah is left with no motive to take Niyogi’s
life. |
Globalisation: IT shows the way THE process of globalisation and the role played by the World Trade Organisation are widely misunderstood and misrepresented, says the much-awaited report, The Future of WTO, brought out by a top WTO think-tank consisting of eminent personalities like Jagdish
Bhagwati, Peter Sutherland and Koichi Hamada among others. Successive failures at Seattle and Cancun forced the world body to have a closer look at the process of globalisation, its challenges and possible ways to tackle the problems. The exercise was on the same lines as the one carried out during the tenure of then Director-General of GATT Arthus Dunkel in 1983 to study the problems faced by the multilateral system. The Lieutweiler Report, as it came to be known later, paved the way of breaking the deadlock prevailing at that time and led to successful launch and completion of the Uruguay round leading to the formation of WTO. No doubt, globalisation has become part of lexicon of modern discourse on world affairs. However, the report acknowledges that there are concerns and anxieties about the process. The process is seen as imposing “one size fits all solutions” and hitting the poor alike in both developed and developing countries. In a way, globalisation can be understood as a giant effort to cut down the cost of merchandise and services worldwide. Japan, for instance, levies 500 per cent import duty on rice. Imagine what happens when the tariff barriers are removed — the common man will be able to buy the best available rice in the world at one-fifth of the price he pays today. Thus, globalisation has created both opportunity and challenge. Globalisation calls for core competence. The ones who are able to provide the best product at the most competitive price (read least) will survive and flourish. No where it is more evident than in the information technology (IT) industry. Arguably, the most global industry, with India as its hub controlling 44 per cent of the global offshore outsourcing market. The IT industry’s basic input is skilled manpower and India has the largest pool of skilled and semi-skilled workforce. Not long ago, there were concerns within India that the increasing use of computers and information technology would lead to unemployment. According to the National Association of Software Companies
(Nasscom) estimates, the total number of IT professionals has gone up from 56,000 in 1991 to 6,50,000 in 2003 — a 10-fold rise. No other industry has shown so much growth in employment terms in the corresponding period. Employment in IT industry, direct and indirect, is projected to reach 4 million by 2008. The other concern shown at that time was that it would lead to brain drain with professionals trained in the country’s premier institutions like the IITs opting for more lucrative jobs overseas. Today, over 25,000 expatriate Indian IT professionals have reportedly returned home in the last four years. Around 40 per cent of them are believed to have returned last year alone. The reason: globalisation has narrowed the technology gap between the West and the East. Increasingly, more and more IT professionals are opting to work from India than flocking overseas. The increasingly exclusionary visa and immigration policies followed in the West haven’t helped the situation either. The western IT giants are rushing to set up their own operations in India, to tap the potential. The technology and IT services exports were worth $17.2 billion in the year 2004-05 as against China’s $2 billion. The size of the Indian export market is expected to touch $58 billion in the year 2008 — a six-fold increase in less than a decade. The success of Indian service industry is not limited to IT alone but is getting extended to other services as well. Medical services is one such example. Today, an estimated one-fourth of the medical doctors in the US are of Indian origin. Countries like the UK are facing increased shortage of medical professionals. The patients in the far advanced western world increasingly realise that world class medical treatment is available in India at one-tenth of the cost in hospitals like Apollo and
Wockhardt’s. Medical tourism is regarded as the next big opportunity for India. However, Indian IT industry’s success has caused concern over the loss of jobs in the western countries leading to outcry for protectionism. Demands are beginning to be raised in the political circles for banning outsourcing or at least slow it down. Both Democrats and Republicans have opposed outsourcing during the US presidential election campaign. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics data, there is total stock of IT related jobs of about 17 million in the US. Nine service-related job categories, representing 44 per cent of the total employment sector in the US, are potential outsourcing candidates, Forrester research says. Another research brings out that jobs potentially affected by outsourcing represent 19.2 per cent of the total employment in the European Union and 18.6 per cent in Canada. The Future of WTO report seeks to allay the fears of the rich counties by claiming that they are mainly importing lower-end services like call answering and financial back office services from the poor countries while they export high value professional services like medical, legal, teaching, architectural and others. This may not be entirely true. We have seen how Indian IT companies are moving up the value chain and how relatively higher costs of medical services and shortages in availability of medical staff are creating a big demand for Indian medical services and professionals. And things are no better in teaching as well. The schools and colleges in the US and the UK are finding it tough to find good teachers and lecturers. Poor performance of the students in mathematics and acute shortage of teachers is forcing the US to outsource mathematics coaching. In a study of mathematical skills conducted by the
OCED, the American 15-year-olds ranked 24th among 29 industrialised countries. Indian companies like Career Launcher India Ltd now provide mathematics tutoring both directly and through US online tutoring companies. Though it’s difficult to imagine today the shape of Indian IT industry had the world not opened up, globalisation has certainly enabled India to reap optimum benefits in the IT
industry. The writer is an Indian Revenue Service officer |
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Profile A long-time member of the CPM, Halim has created a record by holding the post of the Speaker of the West Bengal Assembly for 23 consecutive years. He is, perhaps, the longest serving Speaker of a State Assembly and now rightly elected to head the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association’s Executive. A heartening feature of the poll, held in Nadi city of Fiji islands, was the wholehearted support extended to Halim by the presiding officers of both Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Halim, who will now chair the 35-member executive, is no stranger to CPA. He attended all Commonwealth parliamentary conferences since 1982. He has been a member of the CPA Executive four times, serving as Vice-Chairman on two occasions and acting chairman in 2004. Apart from other issues, the IPA faces the question of increased women representation in member nations’ parliament. The Commonwealth Women Parliamentarians discussed at Fiji ways of increasing their representation in Parliaments, noting regretfully that the Commonwealth goal of having women occupy 30 per cent of parliamentary seats by 2005 has been extended to 2015. Little known in north India, 70-year-old
Halim, is a popular figure in Kolkata. He is turning into a legend in the West Bengal Assembly. Though born in Kolkata, he is not a Bengali Muslim. He originally hails from Bihar. He made his debut in the Assembly in 1977. Soon he was inducted in the ministry and allocated the portfolio of law. Come 1982 elections, he won handsomely and elected the Speaker, an office he has been holding since then, never losing an election. When this writer telephoned him in Kolkata, Halim was warm and forthcoming. In the prolonged conversation, the wit, for which he is known, sparkled many times. Evidently, he is elated at his election as Chairman of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association executive committee and plans to give a purposeful direction to the organisation. Speaking fluently and rather fast in English, he gave me an insight into his long and eventful political career.
Halim Sahib, as he is popularly known in Marxist circles, has been associated with the Communist movement since his student days. He became an activist of the undivided Communist party having enrolled himself as member of the Students Federation of India. In 1957, he was among the group of CPI workers who campaigned for the Communist candidate,
Ismial, put up against Dr B C Roy. Ismial lost but the campaign enabled young Halim to acquire on-the-spot knowledge of electioneering. Subsequently, he joined the CPI as a full-time member. Simultaneously, he began his career as a lawyer but with a difference. He became more a counsel for the party. CPI activists were persecuted those days by the establishment, cases were slapped against them, many of them criminal in nature. Halim sahib took up their cases, did not charge any fee and succeeded in getting many of them released. “Those were difficult and trying times but professionally highly satisfying”, he says. The inspiration behind Halim’s selfless work for the party was veteran Marxist Promod
Dasgupta, who motivated him to function as the party’s lawyer. As the Speaker of the West Bengal Assembly, Halim Sahib introduced many reforms. Earlier, the House used to meet at 1 pm and proceedings often went late into nights. At his behest, the time was changed to 11 am as is the practice in Parliament and other state assemblies. More importantly, under Halim Sahib’s guidance, the West Bengal Assembly adopted the committee system in the late eighties. The system was virtually copied by Parliament in nineties when Shivraj Patil was the Speaker. The standing committees enable members to discuss in depth and purposefully demands for grant of various ministries. As the longest serving Speaker, Halim Sahib is respected by both the ruling party and opposition members. This established his democratic credentials. Those who have seen him function say, he has a wonderful sense of humour and would defuse a volatile situation in the house by sheer wit. Entering the 71st year of his life, his first love continues to be legal profession Left to him, he would like to return to courts but the CPM leadership would not let him go. Indeed, Commonwealth Parliamentary Association is fortunate to have him as the steward. |
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Diversities — Delhi
Letter FOR the last three days, I have been attending an international seminar on the Progressive Writers’ Movement. I must confess that I am sitting in the grip of the likes of Premchand, Faiz Ahmad Faiz, Kaifi, Saadat Hassan Manto, Majaaz…Where are these men? Why have we not been able to produce writers of that level and conviction who probably drank away to death or sat imprisoned than compromise? What a great literary past we have had and see what a mess we have made of even that. So much so that most youngsters wouldn’t even know of these men who lived to write. As Sahitya Akademi President Gopi Chand Narang commented at this meet that it is important to repeatedly revive the memory of these men of literature. He quoted a Persian couplet, which runs along this strain — Purane kisson ko dohrate raho… (keep on repeating daastaans of the years gone by). He rightly pointed out that their words were not mere words, but laden with philosophy, political thought, ideology and conviction. Against heavy odds, these men spoke out against tyranny and oppression in any segment. What happened or is happening to all that progressive writing? It’s best to quote the well known literary personality of Pakistan, Fahmida Riaz, who had commented, “In our particular historic political spectra, ‘Progressivism’ is a euphemism of the worldwide movement of the left, it was born because humanity needed it and will last because the world needs it today more than ever before. It is not the first time that we are feeling concerned about the fate of progressive literature. Ever since I remember, inquisitive interviewers have been asking me the reasons for the “failure of progressive literature”. Perhaps this alone suffices to establish its continuous and for some, irritatingly alive presence worldwide. Like Marxism, the movement for progressive literature has had more concerned detractors than propagators who are never tired of announcing the final death/ failure, defeat of the movement. How surprising that like some ancient phoenix, it rises alive and well from its ashes”. Known for her absolute or say blatant forthrightness, Fahmida also recounted this incident which goes another aspect altogether, “An international organisation — Poets Against War — will tell you that their editors have reviewed more than 20, 000 poems and are unable to publish them all because they keep pouring in every day. The website of this organisation was created in 2003, when in response to the invitation of the first lady of the United States of America to poets to visit the White House, 15,000 poems of protests were written and collected within four days. A collection of these poems were presented to several Congressmen. Indeed the poems did not alter the course of events. Perhaps, we could conclude the poems failed!” There were other writer and literary critics from Pakistan, but focus seemed (at least in the audience) on two of the giant bygones — Faiz Ahmad Faiz and Saadat Hassan Manto. Faiz was particularly in focus. And I had the great fortune of interacting with him in the mid-seventies when he had on more than one occasion come to Chandigarh. It’s his modesty which drew me towards him… the verse came later…and together the combination was absolutely lethal.
Special volume on Mulk Raj
Anand Whilst on progressive writers, it’s important to mention that Mulk Raj Anand’s first death anniversary, September 28, did not go unnoticed. At least in Mumbai. His adopted son Kewal and widow Shirin Vajifdar brought out a volume, titled Mulk Raj Anand — A Reader. The special volume was released by Maharashtra Governor S.M. Krishna. It has been edited by Professor Atma Ram and published by the Sahitya Akademi (National Akademi of Letters).
Focus on Kapoor khandaan If Karishma Kapoor’s marital tale and the much-hyped turbulence in it hasn’t been enough to draw focus on the Kapoor khandaan. There’s more coming. Delhi-based journalist Madhu Jain has been writing a full-fledged volume on the clan. And come December, this book will hit the stands. Titled The Kapoors: The first family of Indian Cinema, it is published by Penguin
India.
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Call not man happy till you know the end of his life. Till then, at most, he can only be counted fortunate. —Book of quotations on Happiness What matters is the gift of yourself, the degree of love you put into each one of your actions. —Mother Teresa Don’t find fault with anyone, not even with an insect. As you pray to God for devotion, so also pray that you may not find fault with anyone. —Ramakrishna Let no one think that he can escape the consequences of his deeds. Good or bad, their effects will accompany him through this life or next. So try to do good deeds only. —The Buddha The spirit is constant. It neither ages nor grows young though the body within which it resides is constantly growing older. —Book of quotations on Hinduism Is it possible to succeed without any act of betrayal? —Book of quotations on Success Religion is by no means a proper subject of conversation in a mixed company. —Book of quotations on Religion Life without faith is an arid business. —Book of quotations on Religion
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SABHA Speaker Somnath Chatterjee introduced last week the newly elected Chairman of the Executive of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, Hashim Abdul
Halim, to New Delhi’s press corps. Chatterjee had tirelessly campaigned for
Halim, a fellow Marxist, for the prestigious post resulting in “a big win” in the straight contest. Halim thus became the second Indian to hold the prestigious post after former Lok Sabha Speaker Balram Jakhar. While Halim won by a handsome margin, Jakhar had scraped through by a single vote as far back as 1984.