New Delhi, May 7
Now that the electoral
battle has moved into the decisive phase and the result promises to be a close
one, political parties are busy speculating about the possible post-poll
scenarios and drawing up contingency plans.
Although both the BJP-led NDA and
the Congress-led secular alternative have publicly claimed they would be able to
form a government on their own, these declarations are more an act of bravado.
If the NDA or the Congress-led alliance is able to muster the requisite numbers,
government formation will be a smooth affair. Otherwise, it promises to be an
open season.
BJP President Venkaiah Naidu’s open talk about seeking new allies
after the elections is a clear indication that the BJP is not sure about
reaching the magic figure of 272. It is drawing up contingency plans in case it
is unable to cross the half-way mark.
The Congress, on the other hand, is
hoping its allies will be able to resist the BJP’s overtures. While depending on
the Left Front to add to its tally, the Congress unofficially admits it would
have to turn to the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
Political
observers said if the NDA could notch up 260 seats, it should be able to form
the government since a shortfall of 12 seats would not be difficult to meet. The
BJP’s crisis managers, it is learnt, have already moved in for the kill and have
identified political parties vulnerable to poaching. The parties include the
BSP, PMK, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. This is
in addition to a host of one-man parties from the North-East.
Although the BJP
will have no qualms about doing business with the Samajwadi Party, its leader
Mulayam Singh Yadav will have a problem about joining the NDA. He could end up
losing his Muslim support base which is already being eroded given the growing
perception about his secret pact with the BJP.
On the other hand, Mulayam will
not mind if the BJP is willing to prop him up as the leader of a government
comprising a host of regional parties. Congress sources said any such
dispensation was bound to be shaky, making it easy for the BJP to bounce back on
its stability plank.
Admitting that both the BJP and Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav
will make all efforts to stop it from forming the government, the Congress
believes its first priority is to keep its allies together. Realising that the
SP leader was already on the backfoot, the Congress next task is to compel him
into going along with the secular alliance.
Most Congressmen believe that they
should make a concerted effort to form the government in case the party is in
striking distance of the goal. However, there is a section in the party which
feels that instead of opting for a shaky coalition, the Congress should sit out
and prepare for a 2006 mid-term poll. This section believes that even if the NDA
is able to form the government, it will not last long as its life will be allied
with that of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.
