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Gujarat trick It's
economics, stupid |
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The
value of two digits
The mischief of
exit polls
Of cricket craze
Question mark on
present exam system People
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Gujarat trick With worldwide condemnation of its role in the post-Godhra riots, it was thought that a chastened Gujarat government would revise its policy. But it seems to be hell-bent to prove everybody wrong. Compelling evidence has now been brought before the Supreme Court that it has tried to again “mislead” the highest court on the status of the accused. To show that the accused were being diligently prosecuted, the Modi government told the amicus curiae, Mr Harish Salve, in writing that “almost all bail applications were rejected”. What it conveniently forgot to mention was that although the bail applications were rejected by the sessions courts, the accused in all those cases had been released on bail or altogether acquitted by the Gujarat High Court. Worse, there is such a “startling pattern” to most of the High Court bail orders that Mr Salve says that “the public's faith in the judiciary needs to be restored”. Implicit in this comment is the suggestion that the people's faith in institutions stands shattered. The Gujarat Government seems to know that it has painted itself in a corner. But it wants to escape the ignominy through a devious stratagem. Its counsel sought to defer the hearing until after the elections on April 20 by forwarding a fantastic argument that “whatever is said in court will be reported by the Press and that will have a fallout on the elections”. Apparently, it is concerned only about its image and not the investigation of murder charges. A totally unacceptable situation prevails in Gujarat. Riot victims and witnesses are threatened. Even members of a special team constituted by the state government to investigate massacres in Panchmahals are under threat. The CBI's status report submitted to the Supreme Court in the Bilkis Yakoob Rasool case highlights the extent to which the state police had abused its power in destroying evidence of its involvement in the rape and murder of 14 people. It is almost impossible to take the Modi government — despite Mr L.K. Advani's certificates to it — on its word. The transfer of the key cases out of the state is becoming unavoidable. |
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It's economics, stupid THE outcome of Friday's election in Sri Lanka shows that the people are no longer enamoured of political cohabitation in running the government. They have clearly reposed their faith in the leadership of President Chandrika Kumaratunga and the policies pursued by her United People's Freedom Alliance. The voters seem to believe that she will not compromise the island nation's interests in any deal with the LTTE. Interpreted differently, this means that they did not approve of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe yielding too much to the Tigers to buy peace. But the peace process he initiated may not suffer as Mrs Kumaratunga has promised to take it to its logical conclusion. Another significant message given by the electorate is that the people want the government to concentrate on economic issues like the rising cost of living and unemployment. They have punished the Wickremesinghe-led United National Front for its poor performance on the economic front during its two-year rule. Obviously, its strategy focused on peace did not work. It had no achievements to show except for the ceasefire with the LTTE. They also did not want the running feud between the President and the Prime Minister to continue. Despite the apprehension of violence, the election was, by and large, peaceful. The voters were not taken in by Mr Wickremesinghe's assertions that a vote against the ruling alliance would mean a return to the days of clashes between the LTTE and the security forces. In an atmosphere where violence has no takers, the LTTE has also preferred to keep its gun aside. It did not go beyond issuing threats even against the breakaway group led by Colonel Karuna. However, the fear of the LTTE muscle power in the Tamil-dominated North-East enabled the LTTE-backed Tamil National Alliance to win most of the seats in the region. But the alliance did not go unchallenged as the breakthrough the anti-Tiger forces have made in its stronghold clearly shows. |
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The value of two digits Cricket and economic growth have apparently nothing in common except that India has lately excelled in both — clinching the one-day series with Pakistan for the first time and surpassing China in the GDP growth, again for the first time. This should naturally contribute to the prevailing feel-good mood in urban India. The ruling NDA coalition led by the BJP is bound to squeeze maximum electoral profit out of it. Finance Minister Jaswant Singh is already making the prediction, not altogether unjustified, that the country is “poised for an explosive growth”. But growth, like cricket, can be highly unpredictable and the success story in both is hard, if not impossible, to sustain. The remarkable 10.4 per cent GDP growth, no doubt, beats China’s 9.9 per cent and makes India the world’s fastest growing economy, is confined to one quarter only — from October to December, 2003. As the figures just released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) indicate, the farm output has registered a 17per cent growth rate during the quarter. It is agriculture, therefore, which is largely responsible for the economy’s robust performance and agriculture is still heavily dependent on the mood of the monsoon. This underlines the need for making assured irrigation available in the maximum possible cultivable area. The last time the economy achieved a double-digit growth was in 1988-89. The continuing surge of the rupee against the dollar can be another possible roadblock to high growth. If it continues to appreciate at the
present rate, Indian goods can become less competitive in the dollar-dominated world, affecting their export. The Vajpayee government’s commendable thrust on building national highways needs to be continued and extended to other areas of infrastructure development like power and ports to keep the present industrial growth momentum from flagging. China is furiously building world-class infrastructure. That is why it is far ahead of India in attracting foreign direct investment. Both the BJP and the Congress talk of creating more jobs. That would not happen unless the reforms are vigorously pursued. While the CSO figures need not create a euphoria, these definitely indicate the country is on the right track. |
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Thought for the day Never be satisfied with what you achieve, because it all pales in comparison with what you are capable of doing in the future. — Rabbi Nochem Kaplan |
The mischief of
exit polls DO poll surveys influence voting choice? Does avoiding media coverage of poll surveys in-between the polling phases imply curbing the fundamental rights? Since these issues are raised every election time and since polling for the general election will continue to be a staggered affair over two or more phases, we need to understand the pros and cons of media coverage of poll surveys in-between the phases. But there cannot be any dispute on the fact that for a vibrant democracy both freedom of information and free and fair elections are as important and neither can be sacrificed for the other. If poll surveys, both pre-poll and exit poll, have no influence on voters and campaigns, why are so many of them being highlighted in the news media. And why are political parties conducting or sponsoring at various time points and getting them covered (by whatever means) and even hyped in the news media? And why are political parties quick to debunk survey findings when these are not in their favour? More the gap between the phases, the higher the scope of their use for an electoral advantage. To maximise the influence, often poll surveys are being presented as if they are independent or objective without even giving minimal information about methodology, sponsorship and giving those findings which are advantageous to a particular candidate/party at that point of time. That being the case, a rethink on media coverage of poll surveys in-between the phases of a staggered poll is called for in the interest of free and fair elections. My analysis of field surveys for over 30 years, both for the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies, indicates that 2 to 5 per cent of voters eventually end up voting for the “likely winner” notwithstanding their initial intention prior to the actual casting of vote. That is what “bandwagon” effect is all about. That is when party workers and voters may change their voting preference from one to another party (or candidate) closer to the voting day. This is based on their perception of the poll scene and about the “likely winner”. Such perceptions get accumulated in the minds of voters based on the poll campaign and its coverage in the news media. Otherwise, why is the media often accused of “trying to influence” the outcome of a poll overtly (by openly endorsing) or covertly (by preferential coverage in terms of time/space). Post-poll studies recently indicated that the percentage of the voters who decide closer to the polling day are on the increase. In Indian elections, it is not always based on an individual assessment. Family and community often matter in the choice of many voters. This is true not only in the case of certain weaker and minority sections of voters but also in the case of relatively well-off or powerful communities (as in the case of Jats or farmers in some regions). The news media, by the extent and nature of its coverage of election campaigns, facilitates voting decision one way or other. Also, political parties try to use poll surveys to pep up the morale of their own cadres and demoralise the cadres and the campaign of the opposing party. In that process, some voters may “migrate” from one party or candidate of initial preference to another one. Depending upon the keenness of the contests in a given situation, the effect may be good enough when the difference is marginal. Another aspect that needs to be taken note of is increasing competitiveness in the contests in more and more constituencies. That is the margin for victory/loss that has been on the decline in more constituencies now than ever before. As such, a marginal shift of votes is good enough to change the fortunes of a particular candidate/party. This brings me to another related issue in this context. That is about the declining size of cadres of parties. The percentage of voters who are activists on behalf of a particular party has been on the decline in recent years in the case of most parties. This has been amply brought out in both pre-poll and post-poll studies. This is another reason for an increase in the size of floating voters from one party to another between the two elections. Pre-poll surveys, nevertheless, have good potential to improve the quality of poll campaigns. But have they? And to what extent? Campaigns continue to be personality-centred, accusation-oriented, vile and acrimonious. Simultaneously, party manifestos have lost their seriousness and significance. No wonder, pre-poll surveys are more concerned in bringing out who wins or loses or the seats they are likely to get rather than the undercurrents and the linkage to voting behaviour. More recently, however, some political parties are using pre-poll surveys to finalise their campaign strategy and make it more focused and localised. But to understand voter behaviour and changing trends in the process, we need independent field surveys at various points of time before an election, including exit polls and post-poll surveys. We need compatible data from time series studies. Despite the proliferation of the news media and their reach in recent years and the efforts made by some of them to motivate voters to go out and cast their vote, what difference have they made on the percentage of voter turnout. Curiously, voter turnout remained more or less at the same level in the last couple of decades. In fact, there is a decline in some pockets where voters are exposed to the news media a lot more and more intensely. If the outcome of a poll is a “foregone conclusion”, as the news media often tends to make out with the help of poll surveys, where is the motivation for voters to go and cast their vote? Frankly, this aspect had not occurred to me until eminent editor Girilal Jain posed it to me some 25 years ago. Is that any reason why the voter turnout has not been increasing despite a dramatic change in the demographics of voters, proliferation of the news media and the number of poll surveys recently? Can one say that media hype of poll surveys does not enthuse voters to go out and vote? And adds to voter apathy. This aspect needs to be pondered about as we are inundated with poll surveys. Given the peculiar poll and political dynamics in India and the fast changing loyalties and the stand of leaders and parties, drawing parallels in this regard with other countries is meaningless. And a conclusion that any change in voting behaviour is difficult to prove and its effects are minimal is mischievous. For, evidence for any effect or otherwise is possible only when specially designed studies for that are carried out within the country to find out the voting behaviour at various time points during a poll campaign. A CMS post-poll survey in 1996 has indicated that pre-poll surveys do influence voting preferences of voters, although neither similarly nor uniformly across a state or even within a constituency. Even post-poll surveys carried out by the CSDS have indications to that effect. The issue is not merely the question of reliability of poll surveys. It is about the very intention of the surveys whose findings are often presented as if they are independent or objective and as if more the size of a sample, the more reliable it is. The issue relating to the media coverage of poll surveys, both pre-poll and exit poll, in-between the phases of a staggered schedule needs to be studied from the viewpoint of a free and fair election. n The writer is the Chairman of the Centre of Media Studies, New Delhi. |
Of cricket craze Basically I am a non-sports person, and I hate cricket. Little wonder that while browsing news papers every morning I skip their sports pages as quickly as I skip the much-beyond-my-mental-faculty business pages. Not only that, I have removed all the sports channels, along with all those “Bhakti” preaching ones, from my television. Look at the irony. Last March when the cricket craze was at its peak because of the World Cup series of matches, I won a freebie to see one of the matches through a “this khao that khilao World Cup Jao” kind of commercial campaign that a reputed consumer goods making company, which also was one of the sponsors of the series, had floated to promote its wares. While one half of our group, comprising about 40 people culled from various walks of life, was shown a semifinal match in which India played at Cape Town, our group was taken to Pretoria, the capital of South Africa where the Australia-Sri Lanka semifinal was held. I regretted it. Not because I was wanting to see Indians play but because I would also have visited, apart from Pretoria and Johannesburg, another beautiful South African coastal city. Though the trip was short and thus tiring I enjoyed it fully; even the match! New-fangled air of a new continent, beautiful shining-sites of mounds of old gold mines, and quick visits to Nelson Mandela’s old house and a place (I am forgetting its name as I am not in the habit of taking notes which I find distracting during such sojourns), that Mahatma Gandhi had visited, still linger sweetly in my mindscape. Apart from all this I confronted the cricket craziness, full of nationalistic spirit, from very close quarters. A young and ever-smiling tailor from some small town of Madhya Pradesh, for whom we had to act as interpreters also as he did not know much of English, was one of the liveliest persons in our group. During lunch break at the stadium he proudly showed me a notebook in which he had collected autographs of some Australian players. On my asking whose signatures they were, he spontaneously and innocently replied: “Mujhey kya maloom!” Since we, some in typical Indian dresses were, seated in the front rows a curious local TV reporter zoomed in his camera on one of us and asked him to name the team he was cheering for. “India,” pat came the reply! Little wonder the reporter showed an obvious sign of puzzle on his face. Cheering India while watching an Australia-Sri Lanka match probably was beyond his
comprehension!
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Question mark on present exam system
It’s the examination time once again. And also the time for cases of paper leak to crop up, which now seem to be the rule rather than exception. Not just in Bihar, which was earlier considered the Mecca for those willing to get a degree on sale. The state education boards of Punjab, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and even the Central Board of Secondary Education have seen their credibility shredded to pieces because of frequent paper leaks. The Common Admission Test for admissions to the prestigious Indian Institutes of Management too stands blemished. This is also the time of the academic year to strike perfect deals. Name the degree – the MBBS, the BDS or any relating to engineering, architecture and management — if you are willing to dig a huge hole in your pocket and have the necessary wherewithal — be rest assured to secure a seat in the college of your choice, and come out with a degree in a few years’ time. During the past one year the country’s examination system seems to have completely collapsed. If the smuggling of answersheets of higher secondary and senior secondary classes of the CBSE shocked the nation in May last year, it was the CAT paper leak in November 2003 that left no doubt in the minds of the country’s academia that the education authorities have lost control of the crisis. In March this year, other than the Punjab School Education Board paper leak, and the subsequent postponement of the papers, there have been at least three other cases of question paper leak in different state education boards. The Class IX papers of Delhi government schools were leaked and resulted in the cancellation of the examinations as was the chemistry examination of Class XII of the Uttar Pradesh Education Board. The Maharashtra State Board of Secondary and Higher Education, too, postponed its English and drawing examinations for the physically challenged following the alleged theft of question papers. Nearer home, the paper leak of Classes X and XII of the Punjab School Education Board too brought to light the rot in the education system, and how the academicians themselves are promoting the evil for getting better results. Setting a commission of inquiry, and three other inquiries, and postponing the exams in the wake of public outcry, the board officials seem flummoxed about stemming the rot that threatens the validity of such examinations. The only sufferers are the students who have burnt much midnight oil and worked hard to pass the examination, get a degree, or rather a passport for getting a job. It is perhaps this concept of degree-oriented education having come in full force that also contributes to the degeneration of the education system, based entirely on evaluation through the examination system. It was with the advent of English in India that the concept of getting degrees came about. The Indians as subjects to English dominance were taught by the Britishers to meet the latter’s demands for clerks, after English was introduced in the country by
Lord Macaulay. But in the West as well as in the East, the concept of degree-based and bookish education has never been an important aspect of learning. Socrates’ famous dictum “Teach Thyself” reveals that the Greek philosopher had in mind that the purpose of education is the improvement of one’s own self. Even in the Oriental world, the love for learning for one’s own sake has been hailed as a holy practice. Confucius and Lao Tsi in China, and our own hermits and men of learning preached that the purpose of education has primarily been to know the ultimate goal of human existence. Even the most advanced scholar without an inkling of the divine, and deaf to the music of the spheres has been compared by Guru Nanak and Prophet Mohammad to a donkey carrying a load of books on its back. However, today’s world seems to have completely forgotten the real purpose of education. This alone explains why students in Class XII are on the look out for schools that allow fake enrolment so that they can take coaching classes in Bathinda, Ludhiana, Amritsar or Jalandhar, for admission (on merit) to the top professional colleges in the country. In Bathinda alone, there are over 100 coaching institutes and the annual business by these academies is pegged at Rs 100 crore. Education has been reduced to a business venture; teachers prefer to teach at the coaching academies, or rather coaching institutes. Students and their parents, too, have more faith in these coaching institutes than the schools and colleges. With getting degrees remaining the sole purpose of today’s education system, we are producing generations of mediocres. Unless we realise that real education is meant for moral, ethical and spiritual values, we cannot stem the present rot in the system. |
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People Amarjit Singh Tut, the eldest of the four brothers, belonging to Paragpur near Jalandhar, went there in 1970 and Surjit Singh followed him in 1974. In 1979, the other two, Pritam Singh and Ranjit Singh, also made a westward move. They bought their first truck in 1986 and now the fleet has swelled to 275 trucks. In 1986, they bought a 160-acre farm. Today they own more than 50,000 acres of land in the US and Belize (Central America). They have major presence in wine grapes, almonds, oranges and prunes. Deeply religious Tut brothers are in constant touch with various holy men in Punjab. They also own a 24-hour Punjabi radio station called Radio Geet Sangeet. It broadcasts Gurbani for close to 10 hours every day.
In, out, in … But Kumar Bangarappa, the son of former Karnataka Chief Minister S. Bangarappa, has given a new meaning to party hopping. On March 3, he resigned as Minister of State for Town Municipal Councils and Panchayats, and also from the primary membership of the Congress. Soon thereafter he joined the BJP. Annoyed over the denial of ticket to him for the Soraba constituency, he trouped back to the Congress. The BJP had announced the candidature of Madhu Bangarappa, the youngest son of Bangarappa, from Sorab which was represented by Kumar Bangarappa twice and held earlier by their father for seven terms. The frequent flier was promptly re-admitted. This despite the fact that the father-son duo had earlier been expelled from the Congress for six years and the party leadership had vowed never to repeat the mistake of readmitting them.
A controversy erupted as soon as she won the coveted title when a TV channel reported that Laxmi, first runner-up in the Miss India contest, was married. She had represented herself to be a married lady while getting a flat in Mumbai on rent. She used to live with Siddharth Mishra at Liberty Garden in Malad West and pay a rent of Rs 4,000 per month. She insists through an affidavit that she is unmarried till date. But she admits she had mentioned herself as “Mrs Lakshmi Siddharth Pandit” in the leave and licence agreement between the landlady, Suhasini Kanke, “one Mr Siddharth Mishra and myself”. She has returned the crown, but the controversy rages: Is she Miss or Mrs? |
Integral Yoga aims at the plenary perfection of the embodied soul in its triple term of existence —
individuality, universality and transcendence. — Sri Aurobindo Birth is the coming of the soul into a corporeal body. It is of three kinds, previous birth, present birth and the next birth. — Swami Dayanand Saraswati The gracious God ferries men through life by His mercy. — Guru Nanak The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones. — Shakespeare |
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Laxmi Pandit’s tenure as Miss India-World should rank as one of the shortest. She had to give up the crown in a matter of days after revelation that she was not unmarried.