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Opinion poll predicts 242-252 seats for NDA

New Delhi, August 15
The BJP-led NDA is on a slide, an India Today-ORG MARG opinion poll has said, predicting between 242 and 252 seats, short of a simple majority, for the ruling combine in the Lok Sabha, down from 304 in 1999.

The Congress and its allies are expected to gain between 35 and 45 seats from the 140 bagged in the last general election, as per the ‘Mood of the Nation Poll’.

The opinion poll shows that the rating of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as best Prime Minister remains 12 points above Congress President Sonia Gandhi, though her popularity has risen six per cent, compared to the rise of three per cent for him six months ago.

According to the poll, the public disenchantment with the NDA government has aggregated to a 0.43 per cent anti-incumbency swing across the country, compared to its actual position in 1999, which has the potential to translate into a loss of at least 57 seats.

The opinion poll says that the disaggregated picture is more alarming for the ruling combine — relative swings of 3.5 per cent in the east, having 142 seats, and 2.16 per cent in the north having the highest number of 151 seats.

The survey, which covered 17,500 respondents spread across 98 parliamentary constituencies, was carried out between July 28 and August 6.

Apart from stagnancy in terms of votes, the BJP has begun losing ground in its erstwhile stronghold of Uttar Pradesh despite a tie-up with Ms Mayawati’s BSP. It is also trailing in Orissa, Jharkhand, Delhi, Haryana, Assam and Andhra Pradesh as the NDA’s regional allies are facing the brunt of public anger.

The survey says the gains of the BJP are largely in Gujarat and other western states, some of which are going to the polls in November.

The resurgence of the Congress and its partners is stunning in the east and the north, where the swing ratios are as high as 4.17 and 3.38 per cent.

The Congress comeback, it says, appears particularly strong in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Delhi. The same is the situation in Orissa, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Kerala. — PTI