E D I T O R I A L   P A G E

EDITORIALS

Unified command
GIVEN the multiplicity of security agencies in India and their varied command structure, the placing of all paramilitary forces on the border and along the Line of Control under the operational command of the Army (and the Coast Guard under the Navy) had become imperative to effectively deal with the extraordinary situation that now prevails. This is a standard operational procedure when operating for war and has been traditionally followed in a war situation. Even during the Kargil conflict, the same precaution was taken.

A well-earned victory
THAT the Congress would secure a victory in the municipal elections in Punjab was expected, given the goodwill generated by Capt Amarinder Singh’s crusade against corruption, resulting in the arrest of the PPSC Chairman and the removal of the Vice-Chancellor of Punjabi University, Patiala. But such a landslide win was perhaps unexpected, especially after the reimposition of octroi, allegations of police excesses on Akali workers, crackdown on power pilferage and tampering of meters, arrest of teachers engaged in private tuitions, vigilance raids to check absenteeism among government employees and talk of imposing tough revenue-generating measures to shore up the sinking economy.

OPINION

Four years after Pokhran-II & Chagai
How serious is the threat of N-flareup?
Praful Bidwai
It is a fateful, frightful coincidence that a military conflict between India and Pakistan should seem imminent on the fourth anniversary of the Pokhran-II and Chagai nuclear tests. India has reportedly cranked up its military machine, already on high alert for four months, with over 700,000 soldiers at the border. A “limited” strike across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir is not ruled out.

Sept 11 and after: UK regains its rhythm
S. Nihal Singh
Nine months after the September 11 events, Britain has regained its own rhythm, with Americans packing West End theatres and the crop of sleaze scandals in government entertaining the populace. Even while the first England-Sri Lanka Test was on at the Lords, Britain’s passion for football was building to a fever pitch, with the World Cup tantalisingly close. But democracy remains alive and demonstrators gathered for a pro-Palestinian rally at Trafalgar Square on a Sunday to call for an end to Israeli occupation.

REALPOLITIK

Meaning of Gujarat ‘peace’ moves
P. Raman
Amidst all the ugly happenings in Gujarat — the state-sponsored attacks on minorities, unchecked lootings, burnings and rapes by pro-RSS mobs, the reckless violation of Articles 14 and 15 and thus ruining an entire community — for three months, there also appear some silver linings on the horizon. Those who had planned the genocide and executed it with precision, were themselves subsequently forced to call for peace. All under public pressure.

TRENDS & POINTERS

Why low sex ratio in Rajasthan
Instead of merely blaming female foeticide, a host of social, health and environmental factors need to be brought under the microscope, if the skewed sex ratio of Rajasthan is to be corrected, according to two senior doctors.

• Physicists date Galileo’s law

• Organic foods : a new fad
  

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

EDITORIALS

Unified command

GIVEN the multiplicity of security agencies in India and their varied command structure, the placing of all paramilitary forces on the border and along the Line of Control under the operational command of the Army (and the Coast Guard under the Navy) had become imperative to effectively deal with the extraordinary situation that now prevails. This is a standard operational procedure when operating for war and has been traditionally followed in a war situation. Even during the Kargil conflict, the same precaution was taken. As such, it is natural for everyone to conclude that India is very much in the action mode now. However, it will be wrong to infer that an Army attack is imminent. The country is not preparing for war; only bracing itself to meet the situation if the Pakistani perfidy does not stop. Right now, it is not only a proxy war that is being fought by Pakistan through terrorists, but an undeclared war that it is waging along the border with heavy firing taking place on an almost daily basis which has played havoc with the citizens residing close to the border. Many civilians have died, forcing thousands of others to flee. Such provocative acts cannot be condoned indefinitely. As the External Affairs Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh, has clarified, retaliatory fire will be conducted in any case of firing across the LoC or the International Border (IB) from now on.

Significantly, only paramilitary forces on the border duty have come under the Army command. That means that the Army has taken charge of the first tier of defence along the international border. Putting the Coast Guards under the direct command of the Navy will result in better patrolling on India’s maritime borders. There is need for providing maximum protection to the Bombay High and nuclear and other industrial installations along the west coast following intelligence reports that Pakistan-backed terrorist groups are planning to target these and cargo and passenger ships on the Indian territory. The latest decision of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) is the plainest message ever to the Musharraf regime to end its war-like acts forthwith. Diplomatic means are also being employed to defuse the situation. While war-mongers are ever ready to shoot from the hip, a responsible nation has to be determined to avoid hostilities at all costs. Only if the opponent refuses to see reason that this final option has to be exercised as last resort. Every sane person will expect that sanity will dawn on the men who matter on the other side of the border at the earliest. They can’t poke the terrorism finger in India’s nose for all time to come and continue to get away with it just because they happen to have nuclear weapons in the other hand.

A well-earned victory

THAT the Congress would secure a victory in the municipal elections in Punjab was expected, given the goodwill generated by Capt Amarinder Singh’s crusade against corruption, resulting in the arrest of the PPSC Chairman and the removal of the Vice-Chancellor of Punjabi University, Patiala. But such a landslide win was perhaps unexpected, especially after the reimposition of octroi, allegations of police excesses on Akali workers, crackdown on power pilferage and tampering of meters, arrest of teachers engaged in private tuitions, vigilance raids to check absenteeism among government employees and talk of imposing tough revenue-generating measures to shore up the sinking economy. Fed up with the chaotic conditions prevailing in all the four Punjab cities that went to the polls on Sunday, the Punjab urbanites have voted for change and reposed their faith in the Congress, the only alternative left to them. The city voters had already made their dislike for the BJP clear in the last Assembly elections, the civic poll has only reaffirmed their commitment to change. The non-performance of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre, the unpopular national Budget and the criminal mishandling of the Gujarat events might have also collectively contributed to the voters’ rejection of the party in state after state and city after city.

It is time for the BJP and the Akali Dal to do introspection. Every defeat leaves some lessons for the losers and the winners. The first lesson the BJP-SAD combine needs to draw is that it had failed to provide good governance, both at the city and state levels. Punjab’s cities are getting filthier, more congested and more polluted. The ruling combine did little to improve the quality of life for the urban voter. Second, the policy of populism and appeasement to sections of society does not pay. Octroi removal benefited some, but left many others disillusioned as civic conditions deteriorated for lack of funds with the municipalities. Third, the previous ruling coalition had divided the state into two segments with the BJP catering to the city dwellers and the SAD looking after its rural vote-bank. A collective approach to growth was missing. Fourth, unlike the ruralites, the urbanities, being more enlightened with greater exposure to the media, have high expectations from the administration and demand better living conditions, better education, healthcare and civic facilities. These were denied to them. Then there were factors that worked in favour of the Congress. The biggest, of course, was the drive against corruption. The pre-poll release of Mr Parkash Singh Badal’s letters to the Prime Minister seeking UPSC membership for Ravi Sidhu damaged the former Chief Minister’s credibility and belied his claims of ignorance about the open sale of jobs. The Amarinder Singh government has restored the public faith in the state investigative agencies. Suddenly, the people have realised how the police intelligence wing and allied units can be put to good use if given a free hand and proper leadership. The Chief Minister is seen to be living up to his pre-poll promise of providing a clean administration. The latest victory imposes an additional responsibility on him to set a development agenda for Punjab with a time limit for its execution. 

Populism doesn’t pay

HARYANA Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala had put on the friend-of-farmers mask not because his heart bled at their plight, but because he thought they could be used for promoting his political interests. He is not the only politician to have raised "jai kisan" slogans from every conceivable forum. Fooling the farmers by making false and bogus promises has become a national pastime for most leaders. So what if as a result of populist policies farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Punjab commit suicide? But what happened in Kandela in Haryana on Sunday has once again brought into sharp focus the need to abandon populism in favour of pragmatic policies for addressing the grievances of the farmers. Mr Chautala thought that by giving sops to the farming community he could forever claim the title of being their friend and well-wisher. However, the confrontation that took place between the farmers who were on their way to attending a rally organised by the Bharatiya Kisan Union has exposed him to be as phoney in his commitment to protecting their interests as most other political leaders who claim to represent the vast farming community of the country. The police had reportedly been given instructions to break up the rally. Why? Because it may have raised some embarrassing issues. The success of the rally would have also knocked the stuffing out of his claim to be the future leader of Harit Pradesh — the proposed reorganised farmer-dominated state comprising Haryana and parts of western Uttar Pradesh.

Heavens would not have fallen had the farmers been allowed to give expression to their feelings at the BKU rally in Kandela. Yes, there have been occasions when the members of the BKU have resorted to violence when the administration tried to stop them from holding protest rallies or organise yatras in support of their demands. Remember the police firing in Shamli in western UP in which a boy was killed and several farmers were injured? Thereafter the BKU had gheraoed the office of the Commissioner in Meerut to express their anger over the atrocities committed by the police. Their actions are not always justified. Neither are their demands. However, they have been allowed to grow into a powerful group because of the inept policies of the government. The farmers do not need free electricity or water to help them make farming a productive and profitable vocation. In the global village they need to be introduced to the latest farm technologies for helping them raise the level of production and in terms of quality compare with the very best in the global market. At Kandela the police were guilty of using excess force for preventing the farmers from reaching the venue of the rally. The farmers, not known for their respect for the law, reportedly abducted some policemen as an act of retaliation. However, two wrongs do not make a right. The ultimate responsibility lies at the door of the Chief Minister who must encourage and introduce the use of high class seeds and latest farm technologies. Giving farmers merely sops makes them do what they did at Kandela.

OPINION

Four years after Pokhran-II & Chagai
How serious is the threat of N-flareup?
Praful Bidwai

It is a fateful, frightful coincidence that a military conflict between India and Pakistan should seem imminent on the fourth anniversary of the Pokhran-II and Chagai nuclear tests. India has reportedly cranked up its military machine, already on high alert for four months, with over 700,000 soldiers at the border. A “limited” strike across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir is not ruled out. The likelihood of a military conflict greatly increased after the ghastly May 14 terrorist attack in Jammu. The visits of US officials Richard Armitage and Christina Rocca only highlight that grave danger. The danger has certainly not passed.

Whether or not the Jammu incident is presented and treated as a “provocation”, a “limited” strike on Pakistan will not reflect wisdom or rationality on New Delhi’s part. Rather, it will demonstrate India’s frustration at Islamabad’s refusal for four months to take unspecified “action” on the wanted list of 20 “terrorists” after the December 13 Parliament attack. Pakistan may not be honest in claiming that it cannot stop militants crossing the LoC, given the terrain. It may also be disingenuous in recalling the US failure to stop illegal border-crossing from Mexico despite secure fences and sophisticated surveillance. But India too has raised its brinkmanship to fever pitch. It has sent contradictory signals about the “bottom-line” for de-escalation: is it “action” on the 20 “terrorists”, or an end to border-crossing?

At any rate, a “limited” strike is unlikely to achieve the purpose of bending Pakistan to India’s will — except through mediation by the USA, which will exact a high cost. “Limited” strikes are almost certain to escalate to open warfare, which in turn is liable to make South Asia the world’s topmost candidate for a nuclear catastrophe.

Highlighting this deadly prospect is a sensational revelation in The (London) Sunday Times (May 12). This report says the Pakistani army mobilised its nuclear arsenal against India during the 1999 Kargil war without the knowledge of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Citing Mr Bruce Riedel, a senior White House adviser at that time, it says US intelligence had gathered “disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear arsenal”. Mr Riedel and other officials feared that India and Pakistan “were heading for a deadly descent into full-scale conflict, with a danger of nuclear cataclysm”. They briefed President Clinton accordingly.

This gives a hair-raising edge to well-founded fears expressed by many analysts, including this writer, that the Kargil conflict had a dangerous potential for nuclear escalation. It was then recorded that India and Pakistan exchanged nuclear threats no fewer than 13 times during that seven weeks-long war — itself the world’s biggest-ever conventional conflict between two nuclear weapon states. These threats were not hollow. In the Pakistani case, they were backed by ground-level preparations. Although Mr Riedel is silent on India’s counter-preparations, it is almost inconceivable that New Delhi would not have drawn up contingency plans for the deployment and use of nuclear weapons. The Sunday Times disclosures clearly show that:

* Nuclear weapons were mobilised for actual use, that too in the middle of a large-scale conventional conflict, involving 40,000 Indian troops and top-of-the-line weaponry, as well as numerous air-strikes and naval manoeuvres. The chances of use of nuclear weapons are highest in war.

* Pakistan’s elected Prime Minister was totally unaware of his army’s nuclear preparations — just as he had been kept out of the loop on the strategy of infiltrating jehadi “freedom-fighters” across the LoC. These decisions were made not in Islamabad, but in the army’s Rawalpindi headquarters. Mr Sharif was first told that terrible nuclear truth by Mr Bill Clinton on July 4 — in Washington.

* Pakistan’s army arrogates to itself all control over and information about the country’s nuclear activities — to the point of keeping the civilian leadership in the dark. Earlier, Ms Benazir Bhutto too had to beg the CIA to brief her on Islamabad’s nuclear capability. Her own army denied her that information — although she was Prime Minister!

* When confronted by Mr Clinton with information on Pakistan’s nuclear preparations, and reminded of how the USA and the USSR had come close to nuclear war over Cuba in 1962, an “exhausted” and presumably crestfallen Mr Sharif recognised the “catastrophic” danger, and “said he was against [the preparations], but worried for his life back in Pakistan”. This prepared the ground for an agreement to pull back troops and end the Kargil conflict — much to Gen Pervez Musharraf’s annoyance. The coup that followed in October was rooted in the Sharif-Musharraf conflict.

These disclosures should chill many spines. It is tempting to use them to highlight how irresponsible and adventurist Pakistan’s military leaders are, and how their self-serving and irrational calculations could start a nuclear conflict.

In nuclear war, it doesn’t take two to tango. A single adventurist, crazy, aggressive, state can start war — with catastrophic consequences. Wreaking nuclear devastation upon the adversary after he has used a nuclear weapon against you can at best be an act of blind revenge. It cannot regain you your security.

South Asia’s 1.3 billion-plus people are now paying for a historic blunder. We could all be incinerated into particles of radioactive dust. The danger is not imaginary. The CIA’s “Global Threat 2015” report says that of all the regions of the world, the risk of nuclear war is the highest in South Asia, and will remain “serious”. Testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee on February 7 and the Senate Arms Services Committee on March 20, CIA Director George Tenet said the chances of war between India and Pakistan “now are the highest since 1971”. He also testified: “if India were to conduct large-scale offensive operations into Pakistani Kashmir, Pakistan might retaliate with strikes of its own in the belief that its nuclear deterrent would limit the scope of an Indian nuclear counter-attack.” One of India’s few genuine, thoughtful, strategic experts, Gen V.R. Raghavan, concurs with this assessment. He says a “limited” conflict with Pakistan is likely to escalate to the nuclear level.

A first-generation nuclear bomb dropped on Mumbai or Karachi will kill 800,000 or more people, flatten most buildings, destroy all communications, and contaminate vast swathes of land with radioactive poisons for thousands of years. There is no military, civil or medical defence against nuclear weapons. There is no cure for the health injury they cause. They are not weapons of war, but of genocide.

Even if they are not used, making and deploying nuclear weapons will impose unbearable costs upon India and Pakistan. Nuclearisation will corrode their social, economic and political institutions. The expenditure, of anything from Rs 60,000 and Rs 100,000 crore, on a small Indian nuclear arsenal over five years will bankrupt the state and cripple the already feeble social sector. The collapse of public services would spell the failure of the state itself. No less burdensome will be nuclearisation’s political costs: India’s reduced global stature, internationalisation of the Kashmir dispute, and subservience to the USA as India’s most favoured mediator in all Pakistan-related conflicts.

Four years after India and Pakistan crossed the nuclear Rubicon, the balance-sheet is strongly negative. Both countries have lost in security. Nuclear weapons have become a liability — a licence not to resolve disputes, and a constraint on the freedom of action of each state. Nuclear weapons have not conferred great power status on India or Pakistan, nor given them a greater voice in world affairs. Pakistan may have recently gained some “normality” in the world’s eyes. But until September 11, it was a virtual pariah — a failing state. It could soon return to that status once the USA is through with its “war against terrorism” in South Asia.

India’s profile has risen in Washington — in spite, not because, of its nuclear weapons, and largely because the Vajpayee government has entered into a subordinate partnership with the USA. We will soon discover that that is no invitation to the world’s high table. Nuclearisation is a recipe for disaster.

Sept 11 and after: UK regains its rhythm
S. Nihal Singh

Nine months after the September 11 events, Britain has regained its own rhythm, with Americans packing West End theatres and the crop of sleaze scandals in government entertaining the populace. Even while the first England-Sri Lanka Test was on at the Lords, Britain’s passion for football was building to a fever pitch, with the World Cup tantalisingly close. But democracy remains alive and demonstrators gathered for a pro-Palestinian rally at Trafalgar Square on a Sunday to call for an end to Israeli occupation.

Psychologically, Britain has got over the hump of the post-September 11 panic. Prime Minister Tony Blair denies in television interviews that he is Washington’s “poodle” and is talking up the prospect for Britain joining the euro currency, a move the majority still opposes. Economically, Britain is ticking along nicely, thank you, even as Mr Blair battles with the inefficiencies of rail transport highlighted by a new crash and the underfunded National Health Service with embarrassing queues for patients needing surgery.

The BBC and The Times are working up enthusiasm for Queen Elizabeth’s Golden Jubilee Year, covering her tours across the country, but a strange thing seems to have happened to the British monarchy. There are no longer the old passions among sections of the people for abolishing it; nor is there great enthusiasm for the institution. It is as if the people had turned indifferent to it while knowing that it is there. The enthusiasm the United Kingdom witnessed during the Silver Jubilee celebrations, with street reception committees and parties, is entirely missing.

It is not the London of the Swinging Sixties epitomised by a Time magazine cover story, it is a London that wants to swing to its own tune to the extent of being seemingly unaffected by the alarming rise of the extreme right on the continent. The British National Party identified with racism remains very much on the fringe of British politics and its success in picking up a few seats in local elections has not set the Thames on fire.

There seems a conscious decision by Britons to put the disturbing post-September 11 world to one side in order to get on with their lives and enjoy the good things to the extent their wallets will allow, and sometimes beyond the limit. There are, in fact, many worlds in Britain, the world of Tony Blair and the politicians and the setting for the people. The majority of the population takes interest in political affairs only when they touch the pocket book or strike an emotional chord such as losing the symbol of Britishness, the pound, or when hospitals and trains don’t perform efficiently.

Some of the shine of Mr Tony Blair has gone but he remains reasonably popular, given the lack of leadership, or even it appears of ambition, in the Conservative Party. There is inevitably a measure of scepticism about him and his penchant for the spin but there are no serious rivals, even counting his deputy Gordon Brown. The debate centres round the length of time he wants to remain in the Prime Minister’s chair. Nor have scandals, such as the Labour Party accepting money from a person the media describe as the publisher of pornography, dampened Mr Blair’s fortunes. A widely held view is that he is the smartest politician around and has a long innings ahead, barring accidents.

Apart from Mr Blair’s desire to lead his country into the euro, does he also have the ambition of taking it into a new age of hedonism? In Britain, Prime Ministers do not determine such phenomena, but Mr Blair has injected a feel good factor that is making Britain swing again, even the monarchy having been pressed into service in aid of tourism. The tourism graph is expected to climb again after the depression caused by the knock-on effects of the September 11 events. As far as Britain is concerned, Americans seem to have lost their fear of flying and promise to resume their place in maintaining the British theatre even as such flashy imports as Gwyneth Paltrow and Madonna take to the London stage.

In the new rhythm London is dancing to, there is a love affair with ethnic culture that goes far beyond the world of the niche market of art films. India is the flavour of this summer and the abandon with which popular Indian culture is being celebrated at Selfridges is to be seen to be believed. A marble top table has been sold for 15,000 pounds and a wooden freeze of a dancing figure has gone for a few thousand pounds under the general rubric of Bollywood. I asked a salesman who bought these items. They are people from around the world as well as ethnic Indians settled in Britain.

If Selfridges aspired to create the world of Bollywood, it has succeeded in a measure, with furniture, jewellery, garments, books and CDs doing the talking. But I saw more Indians than Europeans flock the Bollywood counters; for them, it was like going home. And they seemed to be enjoying the British discovery of India — popular and populous India — which went beyond nostalgia in the form of Raj literature or the elite’s appreciation of the films of Satyajit Ray.

Somehow, the new mood of British hedonism seems to go well with the perceived extravagance of the world represented by Bollywood and the garish formula-laden song-dance routine in which the boy-meets-girl theme is enhanced by the triumph of the good over evil. Other Indian imports such as Mira Nair’s “Monsoon Wedding” is playing to packed houses as is the Gurinder Chadha-directed ‘Bend It Like Beckham’ that marries an Indian girl’s quest for sports glory with the British passion for football symbolised by the English captain and national ikon, Beckham. One wonders whether, and how far, the national English game of cricket has been displaced by football. Has Britain bequeathed cricket to the constituents of its former empire?

If Mrs Margaret Thatcher had presided over a Britain she had pulled up by its bootstraps by introducing the heartless norms of American capitalism into a traditionally compassionate but old-fashioned society, Mr Tony Blair has succeeded in lifting the mood of his people. At any rate, he remains the mascot of today’s Britain floating among the worlds of politics, public relations and a capitalism dressed in the garb of New Labour.

REALPOLITIK

Meaning of Gujarat ‘peace’ moves
P. Raman

Amidst all the ugly happenings in Gujarat — the state-sponsored attacks on minorities, unchecked lootings, burnings and rapes by pro-RSS mobs, the reckless violation of Articles 14 and 15 and thus ruining an entire community — for three months, there also appear some silver linings on the horizon. Those who had planned the genocide and executed it with precision, were themselves subsequently forced to call for peace. All under public pressure.

This is not a mean achievement. The perpetrators of the carnage may not be repenting. They may still try to seek new pretexts to continue with the attacks. But Indian public opinion has been so mighty that even the rabid sections among them had to beat a tactical retreat and blame others for their action. This triumph of the Indian ethos, something which has escaped adequate recognition, should have come as a rude shock to those who had dreamt of converting the Gujarat riots into an Ayodhya-type frenzy.

A look at the speeches by the parivar leaders and the buildup in their publications is enough to show the kind of importance they had attached to the Modi model of expansion. This was based on two claims. It has always been the minorities who had provoked the riots and hence they should be ready to face the Hindu retaliation. Second, and more dangerous, the Gujarat carnage has been an outpouring of the ‘Hindu wrath’ suppressed for a millennium. Long lists of Hindu conditionalities were put forth, some formally and others informally, as price for a peaceful life for the minorities. Parivar outfits and local BJP workers were encouraged to turn this new ‘Hindu assertion’ into a nationwide movement.

A few days before this, the BJP had successfully persuaded the VHP and the Bajrang Dal to put off their Ayodhya stir. That the same Prime Minister subsequently refused to move against the perpetrators of the Gujarat crime highlights the political potential the party had attached to the Gujarat model. However, the whole plan collapsed due to the lack of popular interest. The parivar leaders grudgingly realised that the mindset of an average Indian is far different from theirs. Thus only the party workers attended the bandhs and rallies. Barring stray incidents in border regions like Rajasthan, those outside Gujarat had dismissed it as a local trouble. They did not like it to disrupt their own life.

This week, an old RSS leader blamed the spreading consumerism and western culture for the failure of the self-assertion movement. The entire parivar, including the BJP, was ready even to sacrifice the NDA government in favour of the new expansion strategy. This was on the hope that once the Gujarat troubles spread to other areas, it would awaken the Hindu sections to create a massive emotional wave — enough to give the BJP a majority of its own. But none of this worked.

The parivar’s problem has been that it can never abandon its anti-minority programmes even if it is rejected by even those who had once voted them to power. Impact of the increasing globalisation and compulsions of a competitive economy have only added to the new trend. The Vajpayee government may dismiss the opposition allegation of abetment to anti-Muslim rioters. But it could hardly ignore the intense pressures from the foreign powers. Vajpayee had miscalculated that the USA may be kindlier to him due to its worldwide campaign against Islamic terrorism.

The global condemnation of the Vajpayee government in varying degrees has further helped shape the middle class Indian’s mindset against the extreme religious exclusivism. At home, the business pressure has been building up ever since the riots affected the economic activities in the most industrialised Indian state. Despite this, business organisations avoided any direct condemnation. Under pressure from the pro-RSS elements, the chambers preferred to avoid displeasing the government. However, their private warnings of an economic slowdown due to industrial disruption had unnerved the government.

Meanwhile, even within Gujarat the parivar bosses have begun realising the limitations of the vote-bank politics based on religious divide. It is easier to ignite riots and cause communal tension. But few like the concept of permanent riots and permanent tension. Even the otherwise RSS supporters have begun feeling fed up with the two-and-a-half months of riots. The parivar realised that it could not any more ignore the displeasure building up among the aggrieved sections. Commercial centres in UP had also responded similarly during the prolonged Ayodhya agitation. In Varanasi, the local handloom weavers, factory owners and traders had jointly refused to join the VHP bandhs.

In the face of such adversities, the RSS leadership itself found it difficult to stretch the present level of genocide beyond a limit. Politically, assembly elections are still far away. It is impossible to maintain the tension for so long. Narendra Modi’s plans for an early election had faced many hurdles. It feared that further disruption will become highly counter-productive. Hence it restrained its own hotheads from causing further disruption. The faction war within the state BJP had also poured cold water on Modi’s plans. Three senior state leaders — Kashiram Rana, Suresh Mehta and Keshubhai Patel — had their own gameplans to wrest the Chief Ministership from a besieged Modi.

The Gujarat incidents have left a more severe impact at the Centre. As briefly discussed earlier, Vajpayee seems to be losing his pre-eminent position within the hierarchy. The RSS supremacy is so telling even in day-to-day affairs. Aware of his losing appeal, Vajpayee has been cautiously avoiding taking decisive positions — even in the case of the proposed reshuffle.. Instead, the real power has been gradually slipping into the hands of a few second rankers. These whiz kids with excellent rapport with the RSS establishment seem to have gained considerable authority.

Experts in fixing and wheeler-dealing, at discussions they often force a fait accompli on an increasingly pliable Vajpayee. Pramod Mahajan go round telling that the Speaker’s choice was his. Under a weak PMO, palace intrigues have become order of the day. Rival ministers hoping to grab prestigious ministries leak out CBI reports just to embarrass the colleagues. This happened in the case of Yashwant Sinha and George Fernandes.

L.K. Advani has played a crucial role in restoring a modicum of normalcy in Gujarat and thus lifting the parivar from the deep dilemma it had created. This was the only way to assuage the popular ire and end the isolation even while keeping up the communal fire. It was Advani who had arranged the patch-up meetings with the RSS bosses. He had imposed K.P.S. Gill on an unwilling Modi and encouraged the pro-government minorities panel to go in for reconciliation talks with the minority victims.

While giving respectability to the government, attempts are also being made to strengthen the ISI theory by way of selective leaks. The apparent idea has been to blame the foreign design for the communal strife in Gujarat. Veracity of such claims apart, if the ISI really gets a foothold in the troubled border state, the parivar hawks, who had prepared a fertile ground for such dangerous recruitments from among the persecuted sections, should take the blame.

TRENDS & POINTERS

Why low sex ratio in Rajasthan

Instead of merely blaming female foeticide, a host of social, health and environmental factors need to be brought under the microscope, if the skewed sex ratio of Rajasthan is to be corrected, according to two senior doctors. Briefing reporters in Jaipur on Sunday about an analysis they had done of sex ratio at birth and medical termination of pregnancy figures over the years, the doctors — Dr G.S. Kabra, Dr Vijaya Kabra — said the female sex ratio was low even before pre-natal sex determination tests were introduced in the state. In fact, there has been a “sustained improvement” in the situation in rural Rajasthan, they claimed.

“A whole lot of reproductive toxicants, endocrine disrupters, hormone disrupters, feto-toxins..... in the food chain and the environment have been documented”, Dr Kabra said. He said congenital anomalies were very high among children in Rajasthan. Spontaneous abortions (of defective foetuses) and still-births also were very high. A majority of such cases were of females, he said, adding the female foetus was “more sensitive” to certain toxins, and to nutritional deficiencies in the mother.

Citing figures he had obtained from city hospitals, Dr Kabra said 80 per cent of the brainless children born in Jaipur district were females. UNI

Physicists date Galileo’s law

Using X-rays of ink, physicists have helped to solve the mystery of when the noted Italian mathematician and astronomer Galileo Galilei formulated his law on free-fall motion, New Scientist magazine has said.

Historians have been puzzled about exactly when he formulated the law, which says that objects of different mass fall at the same rate under the earth’s gravity, because it is not included in a text written in 1590 but was finished by the time he completed another work in 1632.

Most of his notes between those periods were not dated.

But thanks to an X-ray analysis by scientists at the National Institute of Nuclear Physics in Florence, which revealed the ratios of iron, copper, zinc and lead in the ink he used, researchers at Indiana University in the USA were able to date the text by comparing it with other samples. “This revealed that the ink used in Galileo’s first formulation of the law was also used in financial records dated 1604,’’ the magazine said.

Wallace Hooper, the historian of science who dated the ink, now hopes to put the rest of Galileo’s papers in chronological order. Reuters

Organic foods : a new fad

As consumers become more health conscious, organic foods have emerged as the latest fad with the producers coming up with an array of special foods to woo consumers in a big way.

While the Khadi and Village Industries Commission (KVIC) has launched its “Desi Aahar” brand of organic foods, Navdanya, an NGO, is selling organic grains and the state-owned APEDA promoting organic agriculture to make a mark in the overseas market. A large number of private players has also entered the field, selling organic fruits, vegetables, cereals et al.

“Organic food is the need of the hour, especially when reckless and relentless dumping of pesticides and chemicals in agriculture has created a very dangerous situation. Reports from the USA indicate that pesticides containing known/suspected carcinogens worth $ one billion have been exported to developing countries (1997-2000) which include pesticides which have never been registered,” says Mr Mahesh Sharma, Chairman, KVIC.

“A test by the Consumers Association, Ahmedabad, found 13 brands of wheat flour with Lindane, a banned pesticide. According to estimates, while developing countries use one-sixth of pesticides manufactured worldwide, they suffer two-third of the estimated 750,000 cases of pesticide poisoning reported annually,” informs Mr Sharma.

Says Afsar H Jafri, Deputy Director, Navdanya, “Organic products remain the domain of a select few as they are priced quite higher than conventional food products. Moreover, they are not available everywhere as the awareness about these products is still limited to metros and big cities.” PTI

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

One who wishes for prosperity ought not to reside in a country which does not possess a good astrologer.

—Varahamihira, Brihat Samhita

* * *

—Yuvraj Krishan, The Doctrine of Karma