Keep your friends close, enemies closer
PRIME Minister Narendra Modi has staked claim to becoming Prime Minister again, his third consecutive term, equalling Jawaharlal Nehru’s record; allies Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar, Eknath Shinde and Chirag Paswan have welcomed him warmly on behalf of a renewed NDA coalition; and in Punjab as well as Jammu & Kashmir, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, Amritpal Singh and Engineer Rashid ‘Langate’ have won their seats — the last two are still imprisoned under the NSA and UAPA, respectively.
If Naidu believes his priority is to groom his son to take over AP, he may not have much time for twinges of conscience on national issues.
All three very different messages from this election potpourri can only be underlined by a fourth, a post-poll rumour — Sonia Gandhi, it seems, has spoken to both Naidu and Nitish about potential support; speculation is rife in New Delhi that INDIA may be willing to offer the top job to either in case they are willing to switch coalitions.
That is unlikely to happen because INDIA simply doesn’t have the numbers. Modi is surely on his way to becoming PM again. But if the press knows that Sonia is reaching out to the same men who are gifting Modi expensive silk Kanjeevaram shawls within hours of them speaking to her, the intelligence agencies — and therefore, Modi and Amit Shah — know too. The knowledge will keep them alert. Keep your friends close, for sure, but keep your enemies closer — both Chanakya and Machiavelli will be needed in large doses as the thrice-anointed PM negotiates the coming months in power.
Naidu, especially, will hope to moderate Modi’s penchant for polarising rhetoric — the question is whether he and his Stanford-educated son, Nara Lokesh (whose statement “there’s no place for arrogance in the government” has been like a pleasing monsoon shower for many across the land) will be able to withstand the enormous power wielded by Modi and Shah. The Naidus & Others may soon find that the exercise of power cuts both ways: They have already been told that they cannot have one of the four top jobs — in defence, external affairs, finance and home ministries — or even the post of Speaker in Parliament. They may find themselves with no choice but to acquiesce if they want the Centre to release a generous financial package for their beloved Andhra Pradesh, or Bihar, as the case may be for Nitish.
Nor are the Prime Minister and his men — there are unlikely to be many women in the Cabinet, what with both Nirmala Sitharaman and Smriti Irani gone — likely to relinquish their control over the media, notwithstanding Sudhir Chaudhary’s latest finding on Aaj Tak that a large section of India’s Hindus didn’t particularly care for Hindutva, which is why the BJP lost so many seats in this election.
The question is: Will Modi and Naidu quietly agree to carve out their respective spheres of influence — Andhra Pradesh for Naidu and the rest of the (non-BJP-ruled) country for Modi — or will Naidu allow his views on sensitive matters, like religious equality before the Constitution as manifested in the Places of Worship Act of 1991, to inform his pact with the PM? We saw how in recent months, the UP administration swiftly allowed the installation of idols in the Gyanvapi mosque and how the high court quickly fell in line. Will Naidu shut his eyes and turn his gaze away when this matter comes up again and the tension, thick and palpable, returns to the PM’s constituency?
Guess we will know soon enough. If Naidu believes his priority is to groom his son to take over the state, he may not have much time for twinges of conscience on national issues — in fact, the PM may be happy if the TDP leader is consumed with his self-styled Republic of Andhra Pradesh and doesn’t retain much of an attention span for leftover matters the BJP promised to bring to fruition in its manifesto, such as the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code across the country.
It is this potential see-saw for influence at the heart of the NDA coalition that could characterise the coming months and years. Naturally, an emboldened Opposition will attempt to accentuate this tension — equally, the government may be fully prepared for Parliament sessions to be washed out to allow the Opposition to exhaust itself in the sound and fury of debate, discussion and sound bites, while it exercises power outside.
If the PM, intentionally or otherwise, misreads the mandate — it seems likely from his speech at the parliamentary party meeting in Parliament on Friday, when he made fun of the Opposition — he may spend quality time moving the BJP juggernaut along, rather than reaching out across the aisle in the Vajpayee spirit of reconciliation.
A continuing hardline is evident in the fact that the Prime Minister of Pakistan is the only South Asian leader not invited to Modi’s swearing-in party — some might even call it discourtesy. To make such a strong gesture right at the beginning of your new term in power is the equivalent of not just shutting the door to all manner of conversation with your enemy, but closing off your own options — certainly, a short-sighted take for a would-be regional power. Closer home, on the matter of both Amritpal and Engineer Rashid, the quality of mercy is also expected to be severely strained.
Keep your enemy closer, did someone say?
