And whether the numbers will make it possible for the Congress and its UPA allies to stall Narendra Modi with the help of non-BJP, non-Congress parties, commonly referred to as the “Third Front”.
What worked for
BJP
No baggage, unlike the anti-incumbency faced by Cong.
Successful positioning of brand Modi.
All RSS and BJP cadres came together.
Modi’s projection as a decisive leader.
Indirectly, AAP too worked for the BJP.
If Kejriwal had not gunned for Modi, and continued targeting the Congress, AAP may have found itself in a better position.
Initial reluctance of Cong leaders to contest elections.
Muzaffarnagar violence polarised voters in
western UP.
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Though its rivals will debunk the thought, but pollsters believe the BJP-led NDA will be in a position to form the next government. The only question is of numbers.
There is also a theory that some site as a reason why the Congress may find itself on the Opposition Benches. Political analyst Subrata Mukherjee, a Delhi University academician, says Indian politics has reached a stage where it can be clubbed with other “mature democracies” of the world, following a 10-year cycle.
“The US is following a two-term cycle. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, every president was re-elected. The Indian democracy too has reached a stage where a similar pattern can now be predicted. There are two centripetal forces governing it — the Congress and the BJP. The Congress has completed its run and now it is the BJP’s turn,” he says.
“If in 2004 the Vajpayee government had not overplayed the ‘India Shining’ campaign or dissolved Parliament before time due to overconfidence, the situation might have been different. 2004 was a classic example of overplaying a hand in politics,” Mukherjee says.
Bets on NDA
International agencies have given 80 per cent probability to a Modi-led NDA forming the next government. BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi exudes confidence when he says the NDA will get 350 seats and form a “shandaar” government at the Centre.
Senior party leader Ravi Shankar Prasad adds: “We will get a clear and comfortable majority and there will be no need for any further alliances. The entire country is aspiring for a change and on May 16 the poll outcome will be unprecedented. Uttar Pradesh will give us more than 60 seats and there will be surprising results in the BJP’s favour even from states like West Bengal, Odisha and Tamil Nadu. Narendra Modi will be the next occupant at 7 RCR.”
Mukherjee believes even if the BJP manages to gather half of the seats in UP (40/80) and Bihar (20/40) it will be in a comfortable position. The tie-up with Apna Dal in UP has done its bit. “Whether it gets past the 272 mark on its own or with outside support, the BJP-led coalition will occupy the Treasury Benches,” he adds.
Mission 272 plus
There are several theories on how the BJP will get there. Party leaders give different likely figures, depending on the forum they are speaking at. On the party podium, they say the BJP alone will get 300 seats, and with pre-poll NDA allies 350. In informal chats with journalists’ groups, it is 235-250 for the BJP and 270-280 with allies. In private, however, they expect the BJP will get 210-230 seats and with allies 240-250.
The BJP may need to manage 20-35 MPs, which will not be a difficult job, party leaders say.
Regional parties like the AIADMK, TRS and the YSR Congress could rally behind the BJP if it crosses the 200 mark. The DMK and BJD have supported the BJP in the past and there is no reason why they should not do it now.
According to Mukherjee, “Whether it gets 200 or 230, the BJP is set to cross the threshold of 200 seats. The party will be able to form a stable government like the Congress did in 2009. The maximum gains will come from UP. Each state has its minimum and maximum. For example in West Bengal the percentage of votes required to win is more than UP and Bihar. Whether the votes get fragmented or polarised, the BJP is set to get 40 per cent of the vote share in UP and the next party (SP or BSP) around 24 per cent. The 16 per cent gap is unbridgeable. It was at the height of the Nehru-Gandhi era that the Congress used to poll 43 per cent votes.”
“Among the northern states it is only in Punjab that the NDA may see a difficult situation. The last time the Badals won it was with a 1 per cent difference. The Congress would have easily won most of the 13 seats if AAP were not there.”
So there are two strong pictures that emerge from this: One, the BJP-led NDA will be in a position to form the next government with or without the help of alliance partners after the polls. Two, the Congress is expected to hit its lowest-ever electoral tally. The only way it can stop Modi from occupying 7 RCR is with the help of the “Third Front”, which appears doubtful.
Allies, present and future
The BJP has gone to the polls with 25 allies, mostly small parties, but party leaders say they will all get two to four seats so there should be no problem in reaching the halfway mark. The Shiv Sena and TDP are expected to do well, contributing a major chunk.
BJP president Rajnath Singh says there will be no need for post-poll allies. “The BJP and its pre-poll allies will be in a comfortable position. However, the NDA government will be about participation and everyone is welcome to join.”
From the way the “three grand ladies” of Indian politics, Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress), Mayawati (BSP) and J Jayallithaa (AIADMK), have vociferously reacted to the Modi challenge it is clear the BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate has hurt them right in their backyard, the party believes.
On whether after so much acrimony they would extend a helping hand, party leaders say in politics no one is “untouchable”. “Ram Vilas Paswan joined the NDA even after abusing Modi publically. While campaigning everyone plays to their respective galleries and many things are said and done. They are usually forgotten and forgiven once it gets to the brasstacks,” they say.
However, the predominant view within the BJP is that it would be better if the three “temperamental ladies” are kept out. “It is advisable to get help from M Karunanidhi (DMK) than Jayalalithaa, but the problem is his party may be washed out. The track record of the three ladies as coalition partners is not good. All of them have prime-ministerial aspirations. It is not possible to have a common minimum programme with them on board. Whether she is in power or not, Mayawati’s vote base remains intact. This confidence makes her the most acrimonious of the lot,” a senior BJP leader explains.
Is there a Plan B?
In these elections, it is said, the BJP contested five “odd” seats, while all remaining were fought by Modi single-handedly. The five seats being the constituencies represented by senior leaders Sushma Swaraj, LK Advani, Nitin Gadkari, Gopinath Munde and Rajnath Singh.
All other candidates, including senior leader Arun Jaitley, sought votes in Modi’s name, thus making the 2014 General Election unique — the first example of a ‘presidential form’ of elections.
The days following Modi’s elevation as head of the party campaign committee and then as prime-ministerial candidate saw some of the most tumultuous times in the BJP. Senior leadership was bitterly divided over his elevation. The party’s ideological fountainhead — the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) — helped bring the situation under control. But that also gave rise to speculation about Plan B, C and ‘Club 160’.
But seven months since Modi’s elevation in September 2013, all detractors have fallen silent. Swaraj, Advani and Joshi have remained conspicuously missing from the campaign.
Sangh pramukh Mohan Bhagwat’s remark that “change is the law of nature” and should be accepted speaks volumes about the change in dynamics within the party and the RSS-BJP relationship.
Sources say those who saw their aspirations failing in the build-up to the “Modi wave” were the ones who floated the “Plan B, C and Club 160” theories to keep alive the idea that others were still in the race for the PM’s post.
Mukherjee agrees. “I don’t think there was any alternative RSS plan of Rajnath Singh or anyone else replacing Modi to get allies. The 2014 election plans were strategically built in the form of presidential elections by Modi’s managers and everyone, including Jaitley, piggy-backed.”
According to BJP spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman, “There never was any Plan B, C or D. The party was and remains steadfast in its support for Modi, come what may”.
BJP leaders say there is no chance that Modi will be changed as PM candidate if the party did not get the majority on its own. “The decision to make Modi the prime-ministerial candidate was unanimous. There is no rethinking,” M Venkaiah Naidu says.
However, Modi’s detractors do not buy the argument. There are, and will remain, issues over his style of functioning, they insist. There are worries among other leaders that they will be sidelined after Modi takes charge at the PMO.
If the BJP fails to make the cut on May 16, the entire blame will land at Modi’s door and there are leaders waiting to do that.
