What will Sonia’s role be in the event of the Congress suffering a massive defeat? Will Rahul be able to carry the party with him or will the Congress, shorn of power, splinter into warring groups? Would this spell the beginning of the end of the Congress as the nation knew it?
The answers to these questions would lie in the number of seats the Congress finally gets. If the tally drops below 100, it would be its worst performance ever and there could be a major challenge to the leadership of both Sonia and Rahul from within. Anything above 120 to 140 seats for the Congress would ensure that the BJP, and thereby Narendra Modi’s, number would fall below the 200 mark, resulting in an inherently unstable NDA coalition government taking charge. Or even a motley Third Front concoction supported from the outside by the Congress leading India.
If the first scenario of a massive defeat of the Congress takes shape then the knives will certainly be out. However, given that the Congress has not projected a national or state leader other than Rahul Gandhi, it will still have to rely on the dynastic draw of the Nehru-Gandhi family to win back support for it. That may stem any collapse. This scenario also holds good if the Congress were to get more than 140 seats and be in a position to influence the formation of the next government.
That’s why Sonia, though dogged by a serious illness, which she has handled well, put in place a gradual succession plan over the past year and a half that propelled Rahul Gandhi to the helm. In doing so, Sonia seemed to have consciously worked towards maintaining continuity, ensuring that senior Congress leaders did not feel slighted.
Rahul’s consecration was so delayed that it became almost a unanimous demand of the party that he lead the charge in the General Election. The question then was never about why Rahul should lead but why did he move to centre-stage so late. While Sonia had a Sphinx like exterior rarely displaying her emotions in public, it was Rahul who showed how human she really is. At the AICC session in January 2013, when he was made Congress Vice-President, he revealed, “Last night, my mother came to my room and cried because she understands that power is poison. She is not attached to it and that’s the way we should be too. We should not chase power for its attributes but use it to empower the people.”
With Rahul being anointed successor and Priyanka kept as reserve, depending on the results Sonia Gandhi may gradually withdraw and hand over full charge to him depending on the mood of the party. With Rahul yet to prove that he is a vote getter and leader, Sonia’s skills would still be required to quell dissent and keep senior leaders in the party fold. As Congress President, she has seen defeat before with the party’s tally dropping to its lowest ever of 114 in 1999. Since then under her leadership, the Congress went on to win the two General Elections in 2004 and 2009 — no mean achievement. Despite her foreign origin, she is now the longest serving president of the Congress.
During the UPA’s first tenure the duality of leadership worked with Sonia handling the party and the demands of coalition partners and Manmohan Singh concentrating on running the government. As Chairperson of the National Advisory Council she brought “inclusiveness” into the government’s economic policy that saw the launching of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The benefits of that scheme in rural areas, coupled with a booming economy that endeared Manmohan Singh to the middle class, saw the UPA win another term in 2009.
UPA 2 very quickly went into a tailspin with the sins of the first term being exposed. With scams tumbling out of the closet, paralysis set in both in the coalition and the government. Added to it was the succession plan that Sonia had started putting into place for Rahul that ensured that no Congress leader, including Manmohan Singh, could threaten his chances. With the Prime Minister’s authority steadily undermined and the coalition falling apart, the Congress presented a disjointed picture as it went in for the 2014 election.
Only in the last couple of months has Rahul been able to articulate a clearer narrative that countered the blitz launched by the BJP and Modi, which may shore up the number of seats the Congress finally gets. Sonia too has campaigned vigorously and that has had a positive effect.
While Sonia will be held responsible if the Congress suffers an embarrassing defeat, we do need to acknowledge that she has always conducted herself with grace and poise. She has shown grit, patience and a shrewd understanding of Indian politics apart from being a wonderful mother to her children. For that Sonia Gandhi deserves admiration and a rightful place in history, whatever the outcome of the election.
raj@tribuneindia.com
While the focus so far has been on the exit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, little has been said about the future of Congress President Sonia Gandhi. With opinion polls predicting that India’s Grand Old Party will face a humiliating defeat in the General Elections, much of the blame would also have to be shouldered by Sonia, as she was seen to be the real power behind the throne.
