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Deliver
now So near,
yet so far |
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Threats
of instability in South Asia
A home away from home
Need for an active
role in Bangladesh
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So near, yet so far LAST Friday the indigenously developed Tejas, the name given to the country’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), was accorded an initial operation clearance (IOC). This clearance, announced with much fanfare in Bengaluru, is undoubtedly a landmark event in the long history of development of this fighter aircraft which is meant to replace the antiquated Soviet-origin MiG-21 fleet, the mainstay of the Indian Air Force for decades. Interestingly, this is the second time in almost three years that this fighter aircraft has been accorded an IOC, the first time being in January 2011. The IOC issued then was considered premature as it was fraught with several deficiencies. It has since taken the combine of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the Aeronautical Development Agency and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited entrusted with developing the aircraft almost three years to rectify. However, it would be too early to celebrate since the LCA is nowhere near ready for induction into the IAF. The current Tejas mark-I now awaits a final operation clearance (FOC), which in turn is expected to take at least another year and involves integrating all weapons and systems, including the air-to-air refueling capability. It is actually the mark-II version of the Tejas comprising a more powerful engine, radar nd advance weapons that the IAF truly awaits. But this variant is at least another five years away. The Tejas (meaning brilliance in Sanskrit), which was conceived three decades ago in 1983 with a projected cost of Rs 560 crores to develop, has so far ended up costing Rs 17,269 crores. This budget includes its naval variant, which is currently a long way from development, a trainer version and the failed Kaveri engine to power the LCA. Like much of India's armed forces, even the Tejas is import dependent with its US-supplied F 404 engines (to be upgraded to F 414 engines in the mark-II version) and flight control systems apart from electronic sub systems from Israel. For the IAF, it is still a long wait for the Tejas. Hopefully, the DRDO and its associates will work on exercising greater "tejas" in executing their projects.
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Thought for the Day
We are never so defenceless against suffering as when we love. —
Sigmund Freud
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IT is now sincerely to be hoped that the carefully planned and cleverly executed train-loot at the Jehangirabad station will open the eyes of the Government to the magnitude of the peril to which the Punjab and the North-West Frontier Province have been exposed during recent years. Hundreds of Hindu Sahukars have been looted or kidnapped and held to ransom; and the measures adopted by the Government to protect the life and property of the aggrieved community have not been effective. Sir Henry McMahon, from his place in the Imperial Legislative Council, once tried to minimise the enormity of the crime by stating that the wealth of Hindus attracted raiders. The result of the policy of half measures has proved most disappointing. And only lately we had the barbarous exhibition at Bannu of the trunkless head of a Hindu Sahukar who had been held up to ransom by the raiders.
The banking crisis
IN an article entitled the “Indian Banking Troubles” the Financial Times says that the details revealed by the accountants’ report on the affairs of the Credit Bank “Call to mind the failure of the Madras banking house of Arbuthnot and Company six years ago, and the criminal proceedings which followed on that notorious collapse seem likely to ensure in the case of some of the bank suspensions which have lately occurred. It, however, thinks that the importance of these “native” banks should not to over-estimated, for their total paid-up capital is only £5,194,300 for 454 joint stock banks, i.e., “less than that of any two of our leading London Banks.” This is, of course, intended for the consumption of British manufacturers and traders; but when a paid-up capital of £5,194,300 attracts deposits to the extent of £50,000,000 the loss of even half of it spells ruin to those who are to consume the products of British industry. This has somehow been lost sight of.
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Threats of instability in South Asia
The
year 2013 has seen both China and Pakistan become militarily more assertive on India's borders than ever before in the last decade. While China launched a major incursion into the DBO sector of Ladakh and took several weeks to take the PLA troops back across the LAC, Pakistan repeatedly violated the cease-fire agreement and once again stepped up the infiltration of terrorists across the LoC to launch strikes in Kashmir after lying low for several years. Topping the charts of the unstable regional security environment in South Asia is Afghanistan’s endless conflict. The present situation can be characterised as a stalemate at the strategic and the tactical levels. This will continue with the Taliban and the Afghan-NATO-ISAF forces alternately gaining local ascendancy for short durations in the core provinces of Helmand, Marja and Kandahar. The Afghan National Army is still many years away from achieving the professional standards necessary to manage security on its own. It will, therefore, be difficult for the NATO-ISAF forces to conduct a responsible drawdown of troops in 2014. The US forces are likely to continue to launch drone strikes in Pakistan against extremists sheltering in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa and FATA areas despite the adverse diplomatic fallout. A gradual drift into civil war appears to be the most likely outcome. Pakistan’s half-hearted struggle against the remnants of the al-Qaida and the home-grown Taliban like the TTP and the TNSM, fissiparous tendencies in Baluchistan, continuing radical extremism and creeping Talibanisation in the heartland, the tentative counter-terrorism steps of the new civilian government, the floundering economy and, consequently, the nation's gradual slide towards becoming a 'failed state' pose a major security challenge for the region. Unless the Pakistan army gives up its idiosyncratic notions of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan and fuelling terrorism in India and concentrates instead on fighting all varieties of Taliban that are threatening the cohesion of the state, the eventual break-up of Pakistan may be inevitable. Sri Lanka’s inability to find a lasting solution to its ethnic problems despite the comprehensive defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam has serious repercussions for stability in the island nation. Despite the election of a civilian government, the gradual resurgence of the LTTE remains likely as the core issue of autonomy has not been addressed. The rising tide of Islamist fundamentalist terrorism in Bangladesh, even as it struggles for economic uplift to subsistence levels, could trigger new forces of destruction if left unchecked. Much will depend on which party emerges as the winner after the elections scheduled in January 2014. The Maoist ascendancy in Nepal and its adverse impact on Nepal’s fledgling democracy, as also Nepal's newfound inclination to seek neutrality between India and China, are a blow to what has historically been a stable India-Nepal relationship. Simmering discontent is gathering momentum in Tibet and Xinjiang against China's repressive regime and could result in an open revolt. The peoples’ nascent movement for democracy in Myanmar and several long festering insurgencies may destabilise the military Junta despite its post-election confidence. The movement for democracy could turn violent if the ruling junta continues to deny its citizens basic human rights. The spillover of religious extremism and terrorism from Afghanistan and political instability in the CARs are undermining development and governance. Other negative factors impacting regional stability in southern Asia include the unchecked proliferation of small arms, being nurtured and encouraged by large-scale narcotics trafficking and its nexus with radical extremism. India’s internal security environment has been vitiated by Pakistan’s two-decade old proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir, continuing insurgency in several of India’s north-eastern states, the unchecked rise of Maoist or Naxalite (left wing) extremism in Central India and the new wave of urban terrorism, which peaked with the dastardly attacks in Mumbai on November 26, 2008. This year there has been little improvement in the state of internal conflicts. In fact, the Maoists are gradually establishing their ability to strike at will at a point and time of their choosing. The security forces continue to lose men, arms and ammunition in these strikes. Though the Central Government’s cease-fire with the Nagas has now held for over a decade even while internecine quarrels among the Nagas have continued unabated, progress in negotiations with both the Issak-Muivah and the Khaplang factions of the NSCN has been rather limited. The ULFA in Assam has begun negotiations with the central government without any pre-conditions except for the break-away military wing led by Paresh Barua, who is said to be taking shelter in Myanmar and is getting covert support from the Chinese. Besides Central and State government paramilitary and police forces, the Indian army has been deployed in large numbers to gain control over internal uprisings, most of which are supported, sponsored and militarily aided by inimical foreign powers, especially the Pakistan army and ISI. However, India’s fight-back is haphazard and lacks coherence, both in the formulation of a comprehensive internal security strategy and its successful execution. The acquisition and dissemination of intelligence for preventing terrorist strikes are also patently flawed. India's standing as a regional power that has global power ambitions and aspires to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council has been seriously compromised by its inability to successfully manage ongoing internal conflicts and external conflicts in its neighbourhood, singly or in concert with its strategic partners. In fact, the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan could deteriorate beyond the ability of the international community to control. These conflicts are undermining Southern Asia’s efforts towards socio-economic development and poverty alleviation by hampering governance and vitiating the investment climate. With a history of four conflicts in 60 years and three nuclear-armed adversaries continuing to face off, South Asia has been described as a nuclear flashpoint. It appears inevitable that in 2014 the region and its extended neighbourhood will see a continuation of ongoing conflicts without major let-up and also face the possibility of new
conflagrations.
The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst
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A home away from home I did not start the maternity home by choice. The inmates decided on their own that this is where they would carry on additions to their families. Before any one comes forth to arrest me…r-e-l-a-x… The inmates are of the feathered kind. Yes, I am talking of birds. We were staying in Delhi’s Dhaula Kuan area. It was a double-storey house and we were occupying the top floor. Last year in the months of February and March, the entire eastern side of my house wall was occupied by birds, building their nests and laying eggs. First came the pigeons — cooing to each other. They built a nest on a perch outside the washroom. They were not very good builders. They did not work very hard at collecting the building materials. Their nest was sloppy and made of twigs, rags, leaves, straw and anything else that they could collect easily. They laid two eggs but they were not too interested in being in their nest the entire time. One of the eggs fell down and broke and only one hatched. However, on a positive note the parents were very loving to each other and were constantly cooing to each other. I am sure they would provide an affectionate environment in which they would bring up their young one. The next came the sparrows. They were very discreet entrants to my house. I did not even realise that they had chosen a place to start their family. Outside the study room, on the window sill was a tiny gap and the sparrow pair used this as their nesting area. Their nest was discovered only when the chirpings of the tiny fledglings started. They were very conscientious parents and were always at hand to feed their little ones with the tender worms. They seemed to be a big, happy family of two adults and three-four little ones. The other inmates of the maternity home were the bulbuls. They chose a hanging basket in my balcony garden. They made a very neat nest and laid two small speckled eggs of a pale pink colour. The curious aspect of their family was that there were three adult bulbuls that tended to these eggs. I thought and thought what kind of a family structure they had. The options I thought were a Ménage — a trois or a concerned mother-in-law visiting the first-time parents or a concerned extended family member who lent her services in the time of need to the young couple. These are mere surmises and the truth still eludes me! I do not know the reason but the bulbul’s eggs never hatched. This despite the additional adult looking after the eggs. Some mysteries of nature remain unsolved. In a few weeks' time the inmates flew away to greener pastures and the blue skies. However, they left a song in my heart and a life-long love of bird-watching. Now I always keep my bird-feeder filled and a pan of water to quench their thirst and splash around in. Eagerly awaiting my next batch of feathered friends and their partners!
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Need for an active role in Bangladesh The recent execution of Jamaat-e-Islami leader Abdul Quader Mollah in Bangladesh has made it imperative for India to adopt a more proactive role to curb the rise of fundamentalist forces in its neighbourhood
For the first time in the history of Bangladesh a War Crimes Tribunal was constituted to try those accused of heinous crimes, in collaboration with the Pakistani Army, during Bangladesh’s War of Liberation in 1971. Several leaders of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) have been arraigned and convicted by the Tribunal. While six have been sentenced to death, one of them, Abdul Quader Mollah, a second-rung leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami, was executed recently, after a short reprieve which stayed his execution for a couple of days. Mollah reportedly refused to appeal for clemency to the President of Bangladesh. Mollah was convicted of murdering civilians, organising rape, forcible conversion of Hindus and other atrocities in collaboration with the Pakistan army which had let loose an orgy of genocidal violence against Bangladeshi freedom fighters, intellectuals, civilians, particularly Hindus, directly and through their collaborators like Mollah and other JEI leaders. Most of these collaborators were members of infamous militias, like the Razakars, Al Shams and Al Badr, raised by the Pakistani occupation army to unleash its brutal and bloody crackdown on the Bengalis of then East Pakistan. Except for one all those convicted and sentenced to death by the War Crimes Tribunal belong to the JEI, an ally of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) that is led by Begum Khaleda Zia. The JEI is an offshoot of the Pakistani JEI which split from the All India JEI after the partition of India. It was founded in Lahore on August 26, 1941 by Aurangabad-born Syed Abul Ala Maududi, an Islamic revivalist thinker. The JEI was founded as a socio-political movement to empower the Muslims of India during the struggle for independence. It seems ironic today that the JEI had opposed the creation of a Pakistan as a separate state for the Muslims of India. The JEI also opposed the Muslim League in the 1946 elections. After Independence and Partition, Maududi moved to Pakistan from India where he led the movement to create Pakistan as an Islamic State. The current party in Bangladesh developed from the East Pakistan wing of the formerly Pakistan JEI. After the liberation of Bangladesh and its emergence as an independent country, the JEI was banned and its main leaders went into exile by fleeing to Pakistan. After the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, the military dictator General Zia-ur-Rahman resurrected the JEI, permitted its leaders to return to Bangladesh and promoted a more Islamist version of Bangladeshi nationalism, as distinct from Bengali nationalism, because the latter smacked of solidarity with the Bengali Hindus of India. Since then, the JEI has consolidated itself considerably as Bangladesh progressively diluted secular nationalism, espoused by its founding father and the Awami League (AL) — the party that fought for independence.
Increasing Wahhabi inclination Over the years the JEI’s agenda has been heavily influenced by generous funds from oil-rich Gulf countries and Wahhabi doctrines. The JEI’s fundamental belief is that all laws must be derived from the Quran and the Sharia and not from any man-made Constitution. Its increasing Wahhabi inclination has led to demands for declaring Ahmadiyyas as non-Muslims, imposition of Sharia law, banning of statues, sculptures, music, Tagore songs, and Bengali festivals like the Bengali New Year, Poila Boishak (deemed an aspect of Hindu culture) and a host of other impositions prescribed by ultra-conservative Islamic beliefs. Though Bangladesh is predominantly Muslim (90 per cent), the JEI has never been electorally very successful in a country that is moderate and passionately attached to Bengali language and culture. In fact, the first revolt by East Pakistani Bengalis was against the imposition of Urdu which led to the language movement in the 1950s and became the progenitor of the freedom movement. The JEI wears many masks; foremost among them is the public posture of a moderate Islamist party that believes in democracy. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh recently upheld a petition that sought to ban the JEI from electoral politics because it did not believe in the Constitution of Bangladesh. The Election Commission cancelled the registration of the JEI as a political party, making it ineligible to participate in the forthcoming general election. The opposition BNP — the main ally of the JEI — and other opposition groups has alleged that this is a conspiracy to give the electoral advantage to AL. The BHP has also refused to participate in the forthcoming elections if Prime Minister Hasina remains the head of the government.
Pakistan connection Meanwhile, the JEI has sent feelers to India that it wants a dialogue. The JEI spokesman and leader of their legal team, Barrister Abdur Razzak, has said in an interview to the Bengali newspaper, Ananda Bazaar Patrika, that the JEI has a negative image in India and he has not been able to obtain a visa for India for the past several years. This is hardly surprising since the JEI has virulently criticised India for turning Bangladesh into an Indian “colony”, a charge that apart from being completely outrageous panders to anti-Indian sentiments and hews closely to Pakistan’s propaganda in India’s neighbourhood. After the execution of Quader Mollah, Pakistan’s National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies have passed resolutions condemning the execution. The Pakistan Home Minister expressed grief over the execution and praised Mollah for being a great “lover” of Pakistan who had opposed the secession of East Pakistan. The Tehreek-e-Insaf party leader and a former cricketer Imran Khan also proclaimed that Mollah was innocent. Imran Khan’s naive assertion belies the evidence produced at the War Crimes Tribunal. The Pakistani Foreign Office, however, has been more restrained in its responses. Like India, it has said that the execution was an internal matter of Bangladesh. But it went further to note concerns expressed by international human rights organisations about international standards not being followed by the War Crimes Tribunal, hinting, thereby, that the trial was improper and biased. Comments from Pakistan have incensed many Bangladeshis and the Bangladesh government had to summon the Pakistani High Commissioner to lodge a protest. There have been demonstrations against the Pakistani High Commission in Dhaka and they have demanded the High Commissioner’s expulsion. The JEI website, too, has carried reactions from many Islamic countries protesting and condemning the execution, but it has avoided posting Pakistani reactions. Leading Bangladeshi historian, Prof. Muntasir Mamun believes the JEI has deliberately chosen not to highlight the reactions in Pakistan, as it has been denounced for being pro-Pakistan. “The Jamaat has never denied its closeness with Pakistan. But, perhaps, at this juncture it is not very comfortable with the way Pakistan has been openly advocating for it,” Professor Mamun has been quoted as saying in the Bangladeshi media. Professor Mamun also said, “For long we have been saying that Jamaat is still a Pakistani organisation. But nobody took us seriously. We were even harassed for making such comments. But today our stand has been vindicated.” It is not surprising that India has always viewed the JEI as Pakistan's proxy. When the JEI was in government in alliance with the BNP from 2002-2006, Bangladesh became a haven for assorted extremist Islamic groups and Indian insurgent leaders. The BNP-JEI government collaborated with the ISI of Pakistan to smuggle arms and ammunition to insurgent groups in India's north-east.
American angle The USA has been a consistent supporter of the JEI and the BNP because it has not been able to develop good relations with the AL. Though Hasina's son is married to a US citizen and lives in the US, the AL has always had a historical distrust of the USA, for its pro-Pakistan role during the 1971 War of Liberation, pressure and indignities heaped on Bangladesh by USA, soon after its independence and the subsequent assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family. The US is also not comfortable with the AL's close ties and relations with India. In USA’s geo-strategic calculations, Bangladesh and other neighbours of India can serve American interests better, if their relationship with India remains under a degree of stress. It is now reasonably clear that India and USA have serious differences on Bangladesh. USA may also be motivated by other factors, like being sympathetic to Pakistani and Saudi preferences that want to save JEI leaders from the gallows. America’s impending withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Iran nuclear deal have generated policy dynamics that impel US policy to pander to Pakistani and Saudi preferences in Bangladesh. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s telephone call to Prime Minister Hasina, advising against the execution of Quader Mollah has reinforced the belief of many Bangladeshis that USA remains unapologetic for its pro-Pakistani role in the genocidal violence perpetrated by the Pakistan army and collaborators like Mollah, which led to killings of over 3 million people and rapes of 3,00,000 women besides making millions refugees. It also reinforces the belief in Bangladesh that USA does not want justice for those who suffered so badly in 1971.
Options for India In this scenario India’s policy options are clear — while supporting a free and fair election in Bangladesh, with the participation of all registered parties, including the BNP, India must not hesitate in providing full support to an AL-led government that takes office, in the event of any boycott of the elections by the BNP. Such a situation looks increasingly likely. India must prepare for this eventuality and its repercussions that include an exodus of people, mostly Hindus, who will enter India to escape the violence unleashed by the JEI, and also take steps to equip the AL government, if necessary, with the tool kit to deal with the violence. Bangladesh is too important from our security perspective for a hands-off
policy.
JEI concerns
— The writer is former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and was India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh
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AT the outset, let me tell you that I am running a maternity home in my government-given accommodation. I also want to confess that I am not a doctor, not even a nurse and my only connection to the medical fraternity is that my second cousin in Nagpur is a pathologist.