O P I N I O N S

guest column
Vote, not opinion polls, is freedom of expression
It is well known that the opinion polls in India are not transparent, often sponsored, motivated and biased. These may amount to disinformation designed to cause ‘undue influence’, which is an ‘electoral offence’ under the IPC
SY Quraishi
Ever since the advent of multiple news channels, opinion and exit polls at the time of elections have become a hot topic. While the media supports these, political parties and the Election Commission strongly oppose. Opinion polls by themselves, like all research, are useful to gain insight into what people think of the policies and programmes. Research is an essential marketing tool to know about consumer preferences and practices.

fifty fifty
The word is respect, not fear
What we now see is an attempt by some men to paint themselves as potential victims of a witch hunt, stating that their reputations could be shattered by anyone who is out to ‘get’ them. 
Kishwar Desai
right now I am in Goa for yet another literature festival, but any kind of intellectual activity of this kind is a painful reminder of the non-intellectual events that took place here a few weeks ago. Jokes are doing the rounds of how the hotel which was the venue of the Tejpal fracas is fast turning into a tourist attraction and that many are coming to Goa just to use that infamous elevator, which is now probably being renamed ‘The Fingertips’.

ground zero
Can’t write Advani off, as yet
On which party would head the next govt, Advani says that would be decided by how low the Cong tally is. What remains unsaid is that if the BJP gets only 165 seats, Modi may find it difficult to become Prime Minister. That’s when Advani, with his stature, will stand a chance. 
Raj Chengappa
Evernote, the computer app that helps you ‘remember everything’, has become the latest rage in cyber-world. LK Advani, though 86 years of age, doesn’t need it. The BJP leader already has the memory of an elephant. I discovered that at a function recently, when we were both on the dais and he told the audience that I had covered his first election campaign when he contested for a Lok Sabha seat in Delhi in 1989. I had almost forgotten that I had, and was touched that he would remember it despite 24 years having passed.

guest column
Vote, not opinion polls, is freedom of expression
It is well known that the opinion polls in India are not transparent, often sponsored, motivated and biased. These may amount to disinformation designed to cause ‘undue influence’, which is an ‘electoral offence’ under the IPC.
SY Quraishi

Ever since the advent of multiple news channels, opinion and exit polls at the time of elections have become a hot topic. While the media supports these, political parties and the Election Commission strongly oppose.

Opinion polls by themselves, like all research, are useful to gain insight into what people think of the policies and programmes. Research is an essential marketing tool to know about consumer preferences and practices.

In elections, most democracies have opinion and exit polls. Then why does the ECI oppose it? Because it suspects their integrity. This fear is aggravated by the ugly reality of ‘paid news’. For this reason, ban is demanded by political parties (some of whom were allegedly approached with offers of ‘favourable’ polls!).

Restrictions are also imposed in other democracies where opinion polls are conducted, extending from two to 21 days prior to the poll — Canada, France, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia.

The opposition to the ban is mainly by the media and some legal experts on the ground that freedom of speech and expression is guaranteed by the Constitution (Article 19). They forget this freedom is not absolute and allows for ‘reasonable restrictions’ — in the interest of sovereignty and integrity of India, security, public order, checking contempt of court, incitement to offence, etc.

Several restrictions are already in force under the IPC and the Representation of People (RP) Act, 1951. For instance, there can be no campaign during the 48 hours preceding the end of the poll. Personal attacks and appeals in the name of caste and religion are disallowed. The use of loudspeakers from 10 pm to 6 am is banned at all times.

While freedom of expression can be restricted, the mandate of the EC for free and fair election is absolute. The Supreme Court in a catena of judgments has emphasised this requirement: ‘Democracy cannot survive without free and fair elections’ (Union of India vs ADR 2003); ‘Free and fair elections is the basic structure of the Constitution’ (PUCL vs Union of India, 2003 (NOTA judgment) ‘The heart of the parliamentary system is free and fair elections’ (Mohinder Singh Gill vs CEC of India, 1977). Free and fair election is a non-negotiable requirement.

Why does the EC feel that opinion and exit polls will interfere with free elections? It is well known that opinion polls in India are non-transparent, often sponsored, motivated and biased. These may amount to disinformation designed to cause ‘undue influence’, which is an ‘electoral offence’ under the IPC and a ‘corrupt practice’ under the RP Act.

The demand for a ban on opinion polls was not a suo motu act of the ECI. It was the unanimous demand at two all-party meetings in 1997 and 2004. The only difference of opinion was whether the ban should apply from the announcement of the poll schedule or from the date of notification. In 1998, the EC had issued guidelines, which were challenged in the Supreme Court on the court’s query on how the EC would enforce these (in the absence of a law). The EC withdrew the guidelines till the law was made.

In 2008, the matter went to Parliament , which banned exit polls, but not the opinion polls (126A, RP Act). Soon thereafter, they came back to the EC complaining about the opinion polls again! It is not understood why the parties which were unanimous in demanding a ban did not pass it in Parliament. The issue got precipitated in 2013 when the EC, on the Law Ministry’s advice, sought the views of all parties once more. All demanded the ban, yet again — with one exception this time.

Many participants in the debate — media, pollsters and jurists — who have been supporting opinion polls also admit to flaws in them. ‘Rotten eggs’, ‘unprofessional’, ‘not serious type’, ‘joke’, ‘no exact science’, ‘after all, the researchers are human too’ are some of the common expressions. No one gives an unqualified certificate. The bottom line of the pollsters is, ‘My poll is right, all others are dubious’. The EC is concerned about the dubious.

Many have questioned by what law can the EC take action? They must note the EC is not ordering anything by itself. It has only asked the government to make a law.

The Constitution does grant the freedom of expression, but is there freedom for disinformation or to cheat? The Supreme Court in the M.S. Gill case said, “One-sided information, disinformation, misinformation and non-information all create an uninformed citizenry, which make democracy a farce.”

The EC stepped in on the demand of political parties for four decades. More importantly, because the EC is the guardian of free and fair elections.

Another refrain is ‘The opinion polls don’t make any significant difference to voters’ choice.’ What would be a ‘significant’ difference? Even a single voter cheated into believing that ‘X’ is winning, and thereby causing the bandwagon effect, is bad enough. That can alter the result. Ask C.P. Joshi, who lost the Rajasthan election in 2008 (and possibly chief-ministership) by one vote. Two ties have even been decided on draw of lots!

The dim view of the opinion polls is not just confined to the EC, even the Press Council of India has this to say, “...the print media is sought to be exploited by the interested individuals or groups to misguide and mislead the unwary voters by subtle and not so subtle propaganda on casteist, religious and ethnic basis as well as by the use of sophisticated means like the alleged poll surveys.’

It may seem paradoxical but the EC is the biggest protagonist of the freedom of expression. The entire election exercise is about free expression of the opinion of the voters, given in a totally free and fair manner. Anything that interferes with this is put down with a heavy hand.

Interestingly, the EC itself conducts its opinion polls. All 21 Assembly elections since 2010 were preceded by KABP (Knowledge, Attitude, Behaviour and Practices) surveys to know what voters want. The insights gained helped develop voter education strategies, which has created a participation revolution, with all states recording highest ever turnouts. The difference between the two opinion polls is that the EC surveys are not meant to mislead anyone.

Opinion polls would be fine if their integrity were beyond doubt. An independent regulator, as in the UK, could be a viable option. Till then, these should be restricted to the entertainment channels!

The writer is former Chief Election Commissioner of India.

fifty fifty
The word is respect, not fear
What we now see is an attempt by some men to paint themselves as potential victims of a witch hunt, stating that their reputations could be shattered by anyone who is out to ‘get’ them. 
Kishwar Desai

right now I am in Goa for yet another literature festival, but any kind of intellectual activity of this kind is a painful reminder of the non-intellectual events that took place here a few weeks ago.

Jokes are doing the rounds of how the hotel which was the venue of the Tejpal fracas is fast turning into a tourist attraction and that many are coming to Goa just to use that infamous elevator, which is now probably being renamed ‘The Fingertips’.

Yet, undoubtedly, Goans are angry because they feel that yet again the state is being given a bad name and they harbour a lingering perception that ‘outsiders’ are to blame for this kind of image distortion. The latter might not be quite true, though it is a fact that few local rapes (barring the Scarlett Keeling case) have had the same kind of media exposure.

Women are now breaking their silence.

There is no doubt that it will be a very long time before the Tejpal brand is welcome here, if at all. Yet, eerily, as you descend the stairs at Goa airport, the first sign that welcomes you is of the Thinkfest, where all this unpleasantness is alleged to have taken place. Perhaps one day someone might realise that the sign is not quite the appropriate fashion in which to greet people and remove it.

On the other hand, the Thinkfest sign could also be both a warning as well as a grim reminder of the consequences for those who take the consent of women for granted. The fact that women are speaking out and breaking the silence —whether it be the young journalist or the law intern — might shake up well-entrenched male attitudes.

Yet, what we now see is an attempt by some men (who should know better) to paint themselves as potential victims of a witch hunt, stating that their reputations could be shattered by anyone who is out to ‘get’ them. The implication is that there is a lynch mob of women out there prepared to sully their own names by making false claims. Because, of course, only men have reputations to protect, and women don’t mind wrecking their own.

Every time a pro-woman legislation that challenges the status quo has been passed this is the allegation that is most often hurled at those who speak up. Even the anti-dowry Act is often alleged to have been misused by desperate women out to seek vengeance, discounting the effect it has had on prevention of dowry. It must also be pointed out that the danger of false allegations is there for any so called crime, not just crimes against women. So why is there a hue and cry whenever the rights of women are protected?

Obviously, because there is a lobby of men who fear the consequences of their actions both now and in the past. And so the question is, each time a man protests a little too vehemently, should he be brought under the scanner?

The most recent case is that of former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and present Cabinet Minister Farooq Abdullah. Mr Abdullah has in the past made no secret of the fact that he enjoys the company of women, and there is enough photographic evidence to support that. Nothing wrong with that, as everyone is pointing out, so long as the friendship is consensual. It is only when it is demanded as a ‘right to rape or molest’ that it becomes problematic. Surely, that is something someone as cosmopolitan as Mr Abdullah would understand. For him then to state that he is ‘fearful’ of women and will think twice before hiring a woman, even a female secretary, is rather ridiculous.

The other worry is that the government has not come down heavily on ministers who carry this burden of prejudice. The government in fact is the largest formal employer of women — and this unspoken threat in the minister’s statement that if any woman objects to sexual harassment in the workplace she might not only lose her own job but endanger the jobs of other women workers is a cause for deep concern. Mr Abdullah needed a severe reprimand not from his son on twitter (incredible as it might sound!) but from the ministry of human resources. In fact a committee needs to be established to look into every appointment that Mr Abdullah has ever made, or will make in his life to underscore the fact that India has changed and will not tolerate lightly these kinds of irresponsible statements.

Mr Abdullah needs to respect women, and not fear them. Once he understands the difference, his own worries will vanish. Perhaps an oath needs to be taken afresh by every Member of Parliament that they will respect the rights of women and give men and women equal status.