The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

PUNJAB
Sukhbir spreads his wings
Sukhbir Badal has emerged as a new brand in the art of electoral battle; the Congress can at best hope to copy it.
By Jangveer Singh

Punjab is going through a change in the way politics has been practised in the state. Repeated electoral successes of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) have seen the emergence of the ‘Sukhbir Badal way’ of doing politics. The success of this model can be envisaged from the fact that even the Punjab Congress has been influenced by it and wants to adopt its key concepts to give a fight to the SAD itself in the 2014 parliamentary elections.

There is a world of difference between the politics practised by Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and his son, Deputy Chief Minister and SAD president Sukhbir Badal. Senior is game for a punishing campaign schedule, delivering the appropriate for an occasion, and thereafter leaving it to the electorate. While this ensured Badal was elected Chief Minister five times, he has never been able to win back-to-back.

Sukhbir, on the other hand, views politics through a different prism. Speeches are not as important for him. Election management is. This management is not a game of money alone, as is usually made out. It rides on the shoulders of dedicated party workers, many of who worked with Sukhbir in the Youth Akali Dal (YAD) when he was building the party after the 2002 Assembly debacle.

The SAD-BJP’s 2007 Assembly victory was essentially planned by Sukhbir, but it was the party’s 2012 back-to-back victory that seemed to have come against the popular grain that led to the firming up of ‘Sukhbir’s way’ of doing politics.

Insiders say Sukhbir has an understanding of the demography of each and every seat as well as its voting pattern like no other political leader in the state. Sukhbir single-handedly changed the voting patterns in several constituencies to favour the SAD in 2012 by putting up moneyed Hindu candidates on several seats. This was done on the assumption that the Jat Sikh vote would split up between the SAD and the Congress in these constituencies, whereas a Hindu candidate would get en bloc votes of his community. Sukhbir also switched candidates to avoid their anti-incumbency tags, thought out of the box to introduce candidates who would catch the fancy of the people, and financed rebel Congressmen, besides launching a virtual ‘commando action’ in the last two days before the polls.

The Punjab Congress, which was still employing the ‘old way’ of doing things, did not know what hit it. The Akali ‘commando’ teams — with money and muscle as well as the ability to win over the electorate by taking responsibility for a particular area and the routine needs and ‘works’ of the people — were out in force in the Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee (DSGMC) elections as also in Moga.

In the Moga byelection, Sukhbir, despite being in a commanding position from day one, followed the same model of canvassing during the day, and took detailed reports from party leaders posted in villages and wards at night, sometimes till 2 am, and followed it up with strategy sessions in the morning to bring in corrective action where needed.

For the Chair

Successive electoral victories have ensured Sukhbir is inching towards being anointed Chief Minister. This could happen soon in case Badal decides to give up the position in view of repeated bouts of ill health. The Sukhbir camp feels he is the best placed to take over now, even though people close to him say he is reluctant to take the leap. These sources say Sukhbir can become Chief Minister whenever he wants, but that may not be the ideal situation for Badal Senior, who would then not be able to serve the party in any other manner.

Sukhbir is also the man of the moment in the NDA. Sources say Sukhbir, who is already being asked by NDA constituents for election related advice, will be part of the core team that will strategise the 2014 parliamentary elections. This is likely to give him an opportunity to try out his election model at the national level, besides giving him an opening in national politics.

No alternative to Amarinder

Punjab Congress president Capt Amarinder Singh during the campaign for the Moga byelection in February

If Sukhbir is the man of the moment because of the success he has achieved, Punjab Congress president Capt Amarinder Singh’s leadership is in question after successive defeats. After the 2012 Assembly debacle a view had emerged that the Congress had lost because Amarinder failed to put in the required time and effort. Feeling the heat on this issue, Amarinder stayed put in Moga for the entire duration of the byelection campaign. The party still lost by a big margin.

There is a feeling in the party that elections now are not a matter of personal popularity alone, as in the case of Capt Amarinder. Organisational skills and a rapport with the party workers are more important. The Congress tried to copy Sukhbir’s model in Moga by establishing a modern office, dividing the constituencies into zones like the Akalis and deputing leaders and workers on specific duties in advance. It even used money power, though to a lesser extent. However, unlike the Akalis, whose workers when told to camp in a village set up a tent immediately, Congress workers were disheartened and did not respond that enthusiastically. Summing up the situation, a leader who did not want to be identified said, “The generals lost us the last Assembly elections. The workers might cost us the next”. Many workers only went through the motions in Moga, and while some simply disappeared two days before the voting.

Amarinder also faces the challenge of proving he can continue to work assiduously for the party as he did in Moga. There is a growing sense that a part-time general will not be able to take on the Akalis in the parliamentary elections. However, the only silver lining for the PCC chief is that there is no clear alternative in the party to replace him. Moreover, with the parliamentary elections only eight months away, the party might well hold on to him, encouraging him to retain his Moga avatar!

Next chance

The Congress is also beginning to realise that it needs to think out of the box and match Sukhbir move for move. The SAD president is planning to spring a few surprises in the selection of candidates too for the parliamentary polls. Amarinder, unlike Sukhbir, does not have the luxury of full authority on taking decisions on all party candidates. He has the difficult task of explaining to the high command that politics as it was practised earlier has changed in Punjab, and that the Congress has to think like Sukhbir to defeat him at his own game. For Sukhbir, the challenge is to take his brand of politics a step ahead to keep the competition guessing.

HARYANA
Easy on taxes, hard on financial health
The target for zero-revenue deficit was last year, but even for 2013-14 the projected deficit is Rs 2,443 crore. Yet the state govt refuses to mobilise new sources of revenue.
By Ruchika M. Khanna

HAVE PATIENCE: Haryana Finance Minister HS Chatha arriving to present the state budget proposals on Friday. A Tribune photograph

Unwillingness to impose taxes, rising subsidy bill, falling capital expenditure, and mounting public debt are facilitating a fast slide in the Haryana Government’s finances. Once a financially robust state, it is today close to a debt trap, unable to follow the fiscal consolidation road map laid by the Finance Commission.

Just five years back, Haryana was a revenue-surplus state. In year 2007-08, it had achieved a surplus of Rs 1,148 crore. But with the Congress government targeting a second term in office during the 2009 state Assembly elections, sops amounting to almost Rs 700 crore were doled out, leading to the government finances going into a tailspin. An additional jolt came from the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission (a liability of over Rs 6,000 crore). The gap in the state’s earnings and the spending has been increasing ever since.

Unmindful of the dire straits, state budgets over the years have played to the gallery. In the past four years, the finance ministers (Capt Ajay Yadav and now HS Chatha) have insisted on presenting “tax free” budgets. Though some extra-budgetary resource mobilisation drives (where some new taxes or hike in existing taxes are introduced after the budget) have been undertaken to keep the cash registers going, these have proved too meagre to address the mismatch in receipts and expenditure.

This time around (2013-14), there will be no room for additional resource mobilisation. With Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda eyeing a third consecutive term, it is clear that though the state is looking at an impressive increase in revenue (of over Rs 5,900 crore), this increased earning will come only from increase in VAT collections, excise duty, stamp duty, property registration charges and other existing taxes.

Tax-free bliss

Haryana presented a tax-free budget on Friday — fourth year in a row — even as it has been struggling to attain a revenue balance. As opposed to the target of becoming revenue surplus by March 2012, the revenue deficit has been increasing over the years. During the current financial year, too, the deficit (revised estimates) went up to Rs 3,163 crore, as against the budget estimate of Rs 2,455 crore. In the coming financial year (2013-14), the revenue deficit is estimated to climb down marginally to Rs 2,443.23 crore, but the state will still be nowhere near being revenue surplus.

The debt burden too has been growing. From Rs 58,334 crore in this financial year, it is expected to increase to Rs 67,772 crore in 2013-14. Unless Haryana starts with additional resource mobilisation and introduces austerity measures to bring down its committed expenditure, the debt could well become unsustainable. Already, the share of debt and its servicing (interest payment) in Haryana’s consolidated fund is expected to go up from 16.91 per cent in 2012-13 to 24.19 per cent in 2013-14.

Officials in the state Finance department, however, insist the state is observing most fiscal parameters laid out for it. Finance Secretary Sanjeev Kaushal says the revenue deficit as a percentage of the gross state domestic product (GSDP) has been coming down, and in 2013-14 it is expected to come down to 0.59 per cent.

“We have been introducing austerity measures, which have led to the state bringing down its administrative expenses by 10 per cent. The ratio of salary and pension to the total revenue receipts is also expected to come down from 38.68 per cent to 37.94 per cent. We are also expect the debt- GSDP ratio to decline marginally from 16.5 to 16.47 per cent,” he said.

The fact, however, remains that Haryana needs to curtail its non-plan expenditure, which has been growing at almost 20 per cent each year. As against a non-plan expenditure of Rs 40,626 crore in 2012-13, it is expected to rise to Rs 45,826 crore in 2013-14. The state also needs to implement house tax forthwith; raise the power tariff in consonance with the power input costs (tariffs have not been raised except for a minimal hike announced last year, and the state loses Rs 2.50 per unit of power); ensure it collects abiana (canal water cess) from all farmers, and starts collecting the pending power bills, which have soared to almost Rs 4,000 crore.

Sop story

Haryana has to get out of the “sop” mode and curtail its rising subsidy bill. The power subsidy bill soared to Rs 55,129 crore during the current fiscal, mainly because of frequent adjustments made by the government against fuel surcharge. The huge outstanding power bills and reluctance to raise the tariff defeats the purpose of increasing the fuel surcharge adjustments. This year, the power subsidy bill of the state government is estimated at Rs 4,260 crore, and another Rs 500 crore is being doled out as various social security pensions. A couple of years ago there was move to implement a professional tax, but the move was scuttled after cries of protest from the public. These are resources Haryana cannot afford to ignore, even as it may continue to be a welfare state and promote inclusive growth.