The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

A nightmare in Kolkata
Fire in private hospital was preventable

India is no stranger to lives lost in accidental fire. People, during the last one decade, have died in fire that broke out in community halls, marriage halls, fairs and cinema halls. But fire in hospitals has been relatively rare. In 2001, 28 mentally challenged patients at Erwadi in Tamil Nadu had been burnt alive and now, 10 years later, at least 88 people, all but three of whom were patients and too old, too young, infirm and ailing, have been killed in a private hospital in Kolkata following a fire that broke out in the basement early on Friday morning. The 190-bed hospital apparently had 160 indoor patients and those who suffocated to death are said to have been in intensive and critical care units on the top-most floors, where fire did not reach but toxic smoke did. Every time such tragic accidents take place, they expose the pathetic state of our systems and response. The nightmare in Kolkata also raises questions about the preventive measures available in the hospital, the training and work culture of its employees and the response by the Fire Brigade to the crisis.

The AMRI hospital on the southern fringes of Kolkata has been in existence for several decades but nobody appears to have questioned its location in a crowded, residential area and its rather narrow approach road. Not surprisingly, not many fire tenders could negotiate through the narrow stretch while the fire department initially tried to use step ladders rather than the mechanical, sky-lifts. The health department, the Kolkata Corporation, the Fire Brigade and the Urban Development Department, which normally would be involved in renewing the hospital’s licence, failed to carry out a proper inspection and demand adequate steps to prevent the kind of horror that the unwary patients were subjected to on Friday.

While Mamata Banerjee is known to wade into trouble, it is time she learnt to exercise some restraint. Her arrival at the site, with TV crews and the media trailing her, rightly outraged the relatives of the victims and affected the rescue operation. The avoidable caning of the people by the police will hopefully deter her from being a busybody in future at accident sites. One hopes the judiciary for once will take note of the accident and call the authorities to account.

Poll shock for Putin
Warning note from Russian voters

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has been functioning as the de facto top ruler of his country with his protégé Dmitry Medvedev being President, got a major jolt after the just concluded parliamentary election results were declared. Mr Putin’s party, the United Russia (UR), suffered a loss of 72 seats (50 per cent of the total votes polled) compared to its performance in 2007 when it had won 310 seats (64 per cent votes) in a House of 450. The UR no longer has a two-thirds majority, but it will have no problem in getting any piece of legislation passed by the Russian parliament (Duma) as its left-of-the-centre ally, the Just Russia, has secured 64 seats (earlier it had only 38). Yet Mr Putin is shaken. There is a clear threat to his position as the most popular leader of Russia. He still believes that he is the darling of the Russian masses.

A large number of Russians, who are unhappy with the style of functioning of the Putin-Medvedev team, have not only voted against the UR party but also held demonstrations in protest against the use of official machinery to “rig” the elections. Many Russian poll observers believe that the ruling UR party could have suffered a bigger setback if the elections had not been “rigged”. Mr Putin, however, sees a “foreign hand” behind the rigging charge. The protest, in his opinion, began after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the parliamentary polls as having been “rigged”. Why she should seek to defame Mr Putin when this may indirectly promote the cause of the Russian communists is beyond one’s comprehension. Mr Putin, who has filed his nomination papers for the March presidential poll, will have Russian Communist Party (CP) chief Gennady Zyuganov as the most formidable challenger. The CP, with 92 seats as its share, has emerged as the main opposition party after the parliamentary elections.

The Russians had their self-pride restored to a considerable extent during Mr Putin’s rule, first as President and then as Prime Minister. But his government failed to run the economy efficiently during the global slowdown continuing for a few years. This has led to an unbearable price rise and reduced employment avenues with rampant corruption at different levels in the government. How the Russian voters will react in March will be interesting to watch.

Thought for the Day

In the case of highly complex realities... ignorance, if not bliss, is at least cheap. — Kenneth Boulding

ARTICLE

Stalling Parliament
It sends out a wrong signal
by Kuldip Nayar

INDIA is the only country in South Asia where democracy has survived in its classical form. It has got disfigured in Pakistan because the military, not the elected government, has the last word. In Bangladesh, the perpetual boycott by the opposition, this time by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has lessened Parliament’s credibility, and in Sri Lanka, the confused opposition has affected its representative character. Nepal is yet to settle down to face the basic norms of parliamentary democracy.

Unfortunately, the political parties in India have come to believe that stalling Parliament is the best way of expressing their opposition to legislation or any other action of the government. The Congress party did it in the late 90s and early 2000 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in power. The BJP has adopted the same methods today. The Congress is repenting over what it did then as the BJP would do if and when it came to power. Not allowing Parliament to function has somehow become part of their political lexicon.

Since the proceedings of both Houses are watched throughout the country, the non-functioning of Parliament which sends out a generally negative signal. Many wonder the utility of Parliament, and some suggest the Presidential form of government prevailing in the US and France. The worst fallout is the mood of uncertainty that is sweeping the country.

I do not want to make politicians a whipping boy for India going downhill. They may be more to blame than others like the judiciary, the government and the media. All are naked in the bath. The point to find out is why a nation which has largely followed democratic methods since 1950, when the Constitution was adopted, is turning violent in its action and the language that people use.

A slap on the face of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar remains as unacceptable as was the shoe thrown at Home Minister P. Chidambaram. Both are violent expressions which neither the Constitution nor the country’s ethos allow. The “Shining India” suddenly appears to be receding into shadows. The economy continues to register a slowdown and governance is practically non-existent.

No official wants to take any decision, much less quickly. HRD Minister Kapil Sibal rationalises that officials are afraid because they will be taken to task if the decision turns out to be wrong. Officials would have to get over such an apprehension because they are not to blame if the decision is not motivated. All this does not say much about the country’s health. So much so, it looks it is coming apart from the seams.

If I were to point out one lapse, I would say that politics or, for that matter, every segment of society has shed morality. The realisation that certain things are not done or that wrong methods are not employed is not there anymore. Therefore, no political party has any compunction in doing anything to get what it wants, through peaceful methods, if possible, or the use of violence, if necessary. The Lakshman Rekha does not exist any more and the tendency to hit below the belt is not only common but also considered permissible.

Had the rot been confined only to politicians the nation might have saved its equilibrium. Every activity has been affected. The media, puffed up by a sense of self-righteousness, has deteriorated to the extent that you can publish anything on any page in the news columns by giving a price (paid news). But this does not call for any control over the media. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, said: “I would have a completely free Press with all the dangers involved in the wrong use of that freedom than a suppressed or a regulated Press.”

The judiciary, thumping its back for independence, can be generally “managed” according to eminent lawyers and former judges. It is an open secret that the clients know which judge has what type of predilection and the price involved. Cases are accordingly preferred before a particular bench. Some judgments astound you and they suggest that there is something that does not meet the eye. No one criticises the judges fearing the contempt laws. Thus, the veneer of respectability stays.

The bureaucracy, which runs the administration, is so divided hierarchically that the right hand does not know what the left is doing. Joint secretaries and their seniors cannot be touched without the permission of ministers who are mostly corrupt. The Supreme Court gave a judgment to stop the practice, called single directive, but Parliament restored it. An appeal against the new law is awaiting the court’s verdict. All parties know from their experience how handy these joint secretaries and secretaries are.

Take the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in retail. Ministers and bureaucrats decided on the step, worked out on the details and announced its introduction to India without consulting anyone outside the government. The pronouncement was made when Parliament was in session, not in any House, but through a Press statement. Rightly, all parties, including the Congress’s ruling allies, were up in arms. The Prime Minister consented to have an all-party meeting to explain the FDI in retail but this was like adding insult to the injury.

Nothing came out of it. Why couldn’t the meeting be convened earlier even if the government was determined not to brook any opposition? And how does the government’s prestige suffer if the FDI takes precedence over a discussion on the price rise or black money? What havoc the FDI in retail will cause is another story.

A senior Congress minister’s remark that “Where is India going?” is pertinent. But his party is more responsible than the Opposition because it is ruling the country. The minister, used by the party to sort out knotty problems, will concede that a consensus is the only way to govern. The ruling Congress has to lessen the distance from the Opposition. When the BJP and the Communists are on the same page, there is something wrong in Dr Manmohan Singh’s policies. Assembly elections in five states may have influenced the government and the Opposition not to have a meeting point. Surely, India is more important than that.

The stalling Parliament is not a good precedent for the neighbouring countries where the democratic system is already under sufferance. New Delhi feels good when the countries in South Asia applaud it for certain steps. How will the common man on the streets of Lahore, Dhaka, Colombo and Kathmandu feel when he sees that Parliament in the largest democracy in the world does not function day after day?

MIDDLE

On painting a mural
by Simrita Dhir

Mom came to visit us and left. All visits from loved ones evoke nostalgia and all have their moments. And while mom’s latest visit was marked by many resplendent ones – walks along the beach, trips to farmlands, sailing the ocean on a dainty boat called The Leini and watching the orange sun set over the Pacific and, of course, our sporadic contemplation on the many lessons that life has thrown our way. And while I let the white sand from our walks by the sea sit in my shoes a little longer in an attempt to hold on to moments past, I know that the hallmark of mom’s visit was the mural that she painted in the wine cellar the day before she left.

Mom is a spontaneous artist, and the mural is her luminous work. However, I like to call the mural “our” mural because it has sprung from a vision that had been caught and held in my mind from the road trip I took in the spring. At a vineyard, I had seen the most glorious grapevines – green and lush with the promise of the grapes that would ripen soon. In translating that scene to mom, I let my imagination fly from the time I saw the grapevines and described to her how the grapes would seem now when ready for the harvest. Not red, nor purple, not even a deep blue but a colour somewhere in- between, some colour close to the indigo on a rainbow, close but not quite that indigo. As impossible as it was to describe, it was harder still to comprehend. However, at a magical moment, a spark jumped the space between minds, and while I continued to express my thoughts, she began to paint and slowly, gradually, she lyrically brought my ecstasy to life on an up-until-then vacant wall.

Today, “our” mural is a spectacular embodiment of beauty and, certainly, my most-prized artifact. Friends have flocked to the wine cellar not for the wine but to savour the art. The grapevine starts quietly at the bottom of the wall and then as if abruptly deciding to take a wild trip, it becomes outrageously alluring as the leaves turn from a deep green to a red-brown and the ripe grapes upon it start to tempt with a never before held out, almost otherworldly promise of abandon, bitter-sweet adventure and hope. And for a moment, I stop to think of the farmer who farmed the vineyard and in some curious way “our” mural makes me partake of his joy on a bountiful harvest, and on a fantasy fulfilled.

I think of the grape juice that may have smeared upon his hands and on his shirt at harvest just as the paint had smudged against my clothes and mom’s. All at once, farming a vineyard and painting a grapevine mural, come together as labours of love and artistry. And I smile for a long time afterwards at the thought of an impression turning into a reality upon a wall.

As the real embraces the abstract in “our” mural, all at once, I want to believe that all visions can come to life if I continue to believe in their promise and, in turn, in my own. And yes, I have decided that rather than shaking it off, I will let the sand settle into my shoes!

OPED DEFENCE

Dragon’s fire ignites a strategic rethink
Maj Gen G.G. Dwivedi (Retd)

Chinese aircraft carrier Shi Lang (ex-Varyag) during sea trials. Rapid military modernisation is aimed at extending influence in the Asia-Pacific region

Among the defining trends of emerging global architecture is the tectonic shift in the balance of power from West to East. Rapid economic growth of China and India in conjunction with Japan is driving this phenomenon. The clout of existing powers in various regions, such as the US in Asia-Pacific, European Union in Africa and Russia in Central Asia is undergoing a makeover with China’s entry in their spheres of influence.

The Asia-Pacific region typically encompassed East Asia, South-East Asia and Oceania. Today, its expanse includes Russia (bordering the Pacific) and countries in North and South America (along the Pacific), besides Australia and nations of South Asia. The US, a traditional Pacific power seeks to prevent rise of a competitor at the global level, while China has a similar design in the regional context. Fast changing landscape and divergent national interests have given way to new power dynamics and alliances, fueling an intense arms race in the region.

Despite remarkable economic growth, there is instability and lack of integration in this part of the globe, primarily due to absence of effective institutional mechanism and trust deficit. Far too many structures and organisations are competing for influence and strategic space. Political tensions and procedural hindrances notwithstanding, trade continues to grow.

Geo Strategic Dimensions

During the first half of the 20th Century, this region was under colonial rule or influence. Coastal areas of China had marked presence of different colonial powers. India had been colonised by the British. Trading houses established in the 19th Century flourished, with industrialists setting up factories in Japan, China and other far eastern countries. Japan emerged as an industrial nation in 1920-30s. China, once a leader in technology, was in a state of disarray. Most countries were exploited rather than developed.

Today, the scenario has undergone a sea change, primarily due to the exponential economic surge. In keeping with their domestic environment, the Asia-Pacific nations have adopted different models of development. As a result, this region has a higher rate of rate of growth vis-a-vis the West. There is a huge energy demand leading to increased oil and gas activity. Vast natural and human resource potential lends this region a cutting edge. Given its geo-strategic location, Asia-Pacific has a key role in serving the interest of major players.

Prevailing Dynamics & Structures

The US, a dominant player in Asia-Pacific, is concerned about Chinese assertiveness and military posturing. Despite the Dragon’s growing influence, America is poised to retain its dominating position through contacts, engagements and alliances. The US-ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) ‘Enhanced Partnership Agreement’ of 2005, seeks closer cooperation in trade, investment and security. ASEAN too desires active American engagement to obviate overdependence on China. USA is bound by military obligations to defend Japan and Taiwan. Its strategic framework encompasses:

n Peace time engagement including forward presence.

n Crisis response which builds on forward stationed forces.

n If warranted, fight and win a conflict that might develop.

China has always considered Asia-Pacific as its area of influence. After redefining its earlier ‘periphery’ policy, there has been marked increase in Chinese activities in the region. Beijing has now declared ‘indisputable sovereignty’ over South China Sea; as also its ‘core area of interest'. Seeking a historic shift in the Asia-Pacific ‘balance of power', China is keen to change the international status quo, by replacing the US in this region. Over the past decade, China has adopted a rather flexible approach resulting in remarkable expansion of its influence. While it has worked formally with ASEAN to resolve the dispute over Spratly Islands and create a ‘code of conduct’ for the sea, it has also acted to assert authority over the maritime area. Its recent aggressive stance has not gone down well with nations of the region. In the realm of its strategic vision of ‘peaceful rise', Beijing’s broad objectives in Asia-Pacific are:

n Work towards diminution of US influence and strategically passive-neutral Japan.

n Sustain economic development and work towards prosperous South East Asia.

n Seek sovereign authority over South China Sea.

Japan is deeply concerned about China’s rapid military build-up and has recently overhauled its ‘defence guidelines’ to focus more on China. South Korea is worried about China’s support to North Korea and is skeptical about US support in view of growing Chinese military power.

Taking a pragmatic view of the geo-political realities, ASEAN has gone in for numerous multilateral structures. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, formed in 1989, accounts for about 55 per cent of global GDP, exports 43 percent of world trade and comprises of a market of 2.7 billion consumers. East Asia Summit, that includes US, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, addresses issues related to trade, energy and security. The ASEAN Regional Forum that includes US, Russia and European Union, fosters consultation and promotes confidence building and preventive diplomacy in the region.

Given its geo-strategic location, natural resources and markets, South Asia naturally integrates into the Asia-Pacific architecture. India’s ‘Look East Policy’ and its fresh initiatives to engage ASEAN and other nations in the region are in keeping with its growing stature and national interests. China perceives India to be a rival, trying to exercise control over the Indian Ocean and is posturing to contain it. China has taken pains to invest in South Asia, considering the area to be part of its extended periphery. Apart from building strategic partnerships, Beijing has been financing and building ports and infrastructure in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, as part of its ‘string of pearls’ strategy, so as to secure the sea lanes through the Indian Ocean. India is certainly concerned about China’s posturing and extended reach into the sub continent.

Impact on Balance of Power

Conflicting national interests, economic factors and unresolved disputes have led to intense competition. After World War II, US allies in Asia-Pacific had counted on Washington to provide a security umbrella. However, now many countries are enhancing individual capability to reduce dependence on the US.

A Pentagon ‘National Military Strategy’ paper states that US strategic priorities and interest will increasingly lie in Asia-Pacific. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates had said that Pentagon would sustain funding for ‘air superiority and mobility, long range strike, nuclear deterrence, maritime access, space, cyberwar, intelligence and surveillance’ in South-East Asia. Barrack Obama’s presence in Bali during the recent EAS is an indication of US enhanced strategic engagement in Asia-Pacific. In consonance with the emerging dynamics, the US is deploying more troops, submarines and surface vessels to strengthen its forward presence, besides taking counter measures against Chinese missiles.

China’s rapid defence modernisation, particularly accretion of naval power, is in keeping with its emergence as a global power. While it faces no immediate threat, America remains its prime concern in view of its long term strategic objectives. China’s total defence spending was $78 billion in 2010, up from $17 billion in 2001. The actual defence expenditure is estimated to be much higher. China has been concentrating on inducting nuclear submarines, littoral class surface ships and land-based anti-ship cruise missiles along with fourth generation warplanes. Its navy has a fleet of 62 submarines and is expected to add another 15 in the coming years. Its first aircraft carrier is undergoing sea trials. China is also upgrading its strategic arsenal, both in qualitative and quantitative terms.

Russia has alsp become a more visible player in regional security and has launched a major modernisation programme which includes development of a new land-based ICBM system expected to be operational by 2013. The Proposed acquisition of Mistral-class multirole carrier would also bolster the Russian Pacific fleet.

Japan proposes to spend $284 billion between 2011-15 to modernise its defense forces, especially its navy. In 2006, South Korea launched a 15-year military modernisation programme costing about $550 billion. Secretive but cash strapped North Korea’s pursuit for acquiring high-tech weaponry remains undiminished, with its main sources being China and Russia.

Data released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reveals evidence of an ensuing arms race in South East Asia. Between 2005--09, Singapore’s arms imports jumped 146 per cent, Indonesia’s by 84 and Malaysia’s by 722 per cent. Vietnam doesn’t have the economic potential to go toe-to-toe with China and is iInstead opening up a prized military asset -- its deep-water port in Cam Ranh Bay, in the hope that foreign navies will steam into South China Sea and facilitate in securing the region’s shipping lanes. Defence spending by Thailand has doubled to $5.5 billion since 2006. It received six Swedish Gripen fighters, with more due in the near future. Myanmar will be spending a quarter of its budget on defence, with plans to double its MiG 29 fleet under a $553 million deal. The Defense White Paper - 2009 states Australia, in keeping with new strategic realities, has identified Japan and South Korea as critical regional partners to balance China. Further, Australia is considering a $72 billion boost in defence spending over 20 years.

India’s defence outlook is driven by multiple concerns; unsettled borders, unstable neighbourhood, terrorism and geo-strategic compulsions. Its ‘Look East’ policy seeks greater engagement with Asia-Pacific nations to further its larger strategic interests and not solely as a response to China’s ascendency. While projecting a neutral stance and avoiding to join multinational security constructs, India has definitely enhanced economic and defence cooperation with countries in the region, preparing to play a greater role in Asia-Pacific. It has strongly pitched for multilateral mechanism to resolve disputes in South China Sea. India’s approach to defence preparedness is threat-cum-capability driven. With a defence budget of $36 billion, it is looking at enhancing its military potential. As each seeks to extend their international links, strategic rivalry between India and China is inevitable.

Prognosis

Great power rivalry has been the chief driver of arms races. Today, Russia is more concerned about its immediate periphery and has little capacity to engage in an arms race. Beijing on the other hand, mindful of Soviet Union’s demise, is unwilling to openly challenge the US. Nonetheless, a close partnership between the two to checkmate US in Asia-Pacific remains viable. According to SIPRI, 2010 witnessed expenditure across the region peak at about $290 billion. Security of sea lanes of communications alongside territorial disputes and China’s rise have played a significant role, leaving many nations strengthening their defence infrastructure.

China’s growing assertiveness over disputes in South China Sea has alarmed many countries. Accretion of military power and extended reach are main factors for increased defence spending by Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. According to the Australian Defense Minister, Asia-Pacific is ‘a region in strategic flux'. With state-of-the-art weaponry being acquired at a scale and pace that matches the Cold War, the security landscape is constantly changing, as regional players build greater capacity for power projection.

India’s ‘Look East Policy’ is in recognition of Asia-Pacific’s vast potential and stems from geo-strategic and geo-economic considerations. China has sought to confine India to South Asian regional groupings, though is increasingly being seen as a power that could play a balancing role in Asia-Pacific. To meet the expectations, India is actively engaging nations in the region through good economics and astute diplomacy.

Despite assurances from China of its benign rise, Asia-Pacific states are increasingly unwilling to rely on American security guarantee. While the US will continue to be a major player in Asia-Pacific, with passage of time its role will be less of a security guarantor and more of an important ally. With the quest for development and high stakes in protecting the resulting prosperity, it is economic inter-dependence that may stand out as the most potent safeguard against conflict. Transparency, multilateralism, inclusive security architecture and restraining adventurism will go a long way in deescalating the ensuing arms race in Asia-Pacific.

The writer is a former Assistant Chief Integrated Defence Staff and served as
Defence Attaché in China