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Working to a plan
Spurt in child marriages |
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First Thai woman PM
India-China defence exchange
Humourless in uniform
We are still growing too fast
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Working to a plan
There
is indeed more to Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi's four-day trek in hot and sultry weather conditions in the heartland of the country, Uttar Pradesh, than mere gimmickry. His detractors would be caught on the wrong foot if they were to dismiss his 'padyatra' (foot march) as of no consequence. When Rahul stumbled into politics he seemed clueless about how to go about it. But today he has a clearer agenda, a sense of purpose and a specific goal to claw his way to the top via elections in the country's most populous state. But with the ruling party in UP, the Bahujan Samaj Party, on the decline in the face of deteriorating law and order and rampant corruption, the BJP in complete disarray and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party lacking direction, the time is propitious for the Congress party to become a rallying point for unhappy farmers, disgruntled lower castes and the youth in general who need an anchor at a time of widespread unemployment. Rahul and his band of advisers righly see this as an opportunity not to be missed. Young Rahul has had a mixed bag of successes and failures. He failed to make an impact on the voters in the crucial states of Bihar and recently Tamil Nadu in assembly elections, but in the 2009 parliamentary elections in UP the Congress more than doubled its tally from 9 in the polls five years earlier to 21 seats, of a total of 80. Rahul's strategy is to make substantial inroads in the UP assembly elections first and then top it up with a stunning performance in the Hindi heartland in the parliamentary polls. Whether he would be able to achieve this is steeped in speculation, but he is working hard to re-build the sleepy old party at the grassroots. Yet, UP cannot be Rahul Gandhi's be-all and end-all if he is to don the mantle of the country's Prime Minister. He must gain acceptability among the middle class by articulating his stand on various national and international issues with clarity, coherence and an informed mind. His interventions in parliamentary debates will need to be more frequent and substantial. His must be a voice of maturity and temperance. That he is committed to 'inclusive growth,' is pro-reform but insists that economic growth must provide opportunities for the poor are clear positives. But there is still much ground for him to cover.
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Spurt in child marriages
The
women of Haryana have an uncanny way of making it to the news pages. Sometimes, even before they are born. Often, for being killed by their own kith and kin for such a simple act like marrying someone they like. The social web they are born and brought up in pushes them to make startling headlines — female foeticide, honour killings, and now child marriages — indicators of society’s obstinacy for clinging to feudal values, while modernity knocks at its doors. In six months, 195 child marriages have been reported in Haryana, as compared to 47 in 2009. The reasoning offered behind these marriages is startling — safety for the girl and protection of family honour! There are clear indications of violation of human rights for women at various stages of their existence. There are, of course, paradoxes like Commonwealth champions Babita and Geeta from Balali village in Bhiwani district, who were encouraged to take up ‘kushti’ (wrestling) by their parents, despite a lot of opposition from the villagers. After the medals started pouring in, the scenario changed. Now, four other girls from the same village have joined wrestling. And these are not isolated cases. But, unfortunately, instead of highlighting these champions and using them as their poster girls in a state where female foeticide is showing alarming figures, the government chooses to introduce cash incentives for the girl child, from her birth to her marriage! So long as the girl child is treated as a liability, and money is offered as a kind of compensation under several schemes (Ladli, Balika Samriddhi Yojna, Dhan Luxmi, etc) by the government for letting a girl child take birth, it will be impossible for her to grow up with self-respect and the required confidence to claim her rights. And girls will continue to be bartered with money, material, in barter marriage (atta-satta) and under all other kinds of violations of her rights. If the government is serious about tackling this malaise, it should provide a safe environment for girls to come to schools and colleges, so that like other parameters of modernity, independent girls too find their space.
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First Thai woman PM
Thailand’s
just concluded elections have led to an interesting development. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democratic Party has been ousted from power through the battle of the ballot despite the powerful military and the monarchy being its backers. The people’s mandate has gone in favour of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, whose 44-year-old woman leader, Ms Yingluck Shinawatra, has taken oath as the country’s new Prime Minister. Her party won 263 seats in a 500-strong Lower House of parliament, the House of Representatives. That she is the sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled in a military coup in 2006 and then convicted in a corruption case and sentenced to a jail term, did not deter people from casting their vote in support of her party. Mr Thaksin Shinawatra has been living in self-imposed exile in Dubai since then. Ms Yingluck Shinawatra could easily form her party’s government as it won a clear majority in parliament. But she has decided to go in for a coalition with the help of a few like-minded parties. She says she has preferred the path of national reconciliation, required in view of last year’s disturbances in which 90 people lost their lives with the ordinary Thais expressing their disenchantment against the ruling dispensation in a strong manner. The voters’ disapproval of the nexus between the Democratic Party, the military and the Thai King can be seen in the election results too. The military may look for an opportunity to intervene again if Ms Yingluck Shinawatra does not play her cards tactfully. She has been described as a proxy for her brother, whose return to Thailand may be facilitated by the new government. Nothing should be done by ignoring the country’s justice system. It would be better if Mr Thaksin himself remains away from Thailand for some time and plays the role of a mentor from where he is — in Dubai. Even if he is back to Bangkok, he should keep himself away from the corridors of power so that the military does not find a pretext to destabilise the Yingluck government.
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The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing. — Socrates
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India-China defence exchange After a long gap, defence cooperation, including military engagement, between India and China was resumed with the visit of Major-Gen Gurmeet Singh, General Officer-in-Commanding of the Rashtriya Rifles, to China from June 19 to 24. Earlier, General B.S. Jaswal had to cancel his visit on the ground that he was not issued a proper visa by the Chinese government as he headed troops in Jammu and Kashmir. The Chinese Embassy in India started the practice of issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir in 2008. However, during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China in April this year to participate in the BRICS summit in Sanya, the journalists from Jammu and Kashmir accompanying him were issued proper visas, which showed that the practice of stapled visas would be stopped. It was also indicated that defence exchanges between the two countries, suspended earlier, would be resumed soon. The rationale for defence cooperation and military engagement can hardly be overemphasised, given the fact that the two countries fought a war in 1962 and they share a common border of 3,488 kilometres which remains undefined and disputed even after having 14 rounds of talks. The 15th round is going to take place sometime this year. There exists a persistent security dilemma between the two countries. Over the years there has been an incremental progress towards trust building. The consolidation of diplomatic relations between the two countries with the path-breaking visit of the then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, to China in December 1988 led to the establishment of the Joint Working Group (JWG) and the groundwork for defence cooperation and military engagement. Later, during the visit of the late Prime Minister, P.V. Narashima Rao, the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the India-China border area was signed on September 7, 1993. The agreement was indeed a breakthrough. In the first place, the agreement affirmed the view that the India-China boundary question would be resolved through peaceful and friendly consultations and that neither side would use or threaten to use force against the other by any means. Yet another important highlight of the agreement was that it stipulated that “pending an ultimate solution of the boundary question between the two countries, the two sides shall strictly observe the LAC and that no activities of either side shall overstep the LAC”. Secondly, the agreement envisaged that each side would keep its military forces in the area along the LAC to a minimum level compatible with the friendly and good neighbourly relations between the two. It further noted that the two sides agree to reduce their military forces along the LAC in conformity with the requirement of the principle of equal security to ceilings to be mutually agreed upon, and that the reduction of military forces shall be carried out by stages in mutually agreed geographical locations, sector-wise, within the areas along the Line of Actual Control. As a follow-up of this agreement, a senior-level Chinese military delegation aimed at fostering CBMs between the defence forces of the two countries made a six-day goodwill visit to India in December 1993. The visit was reciprocated by Indian Army Chief Gen. BC Joshi’s visit to China in July 1994. Since then, regular exchanges have been taking place at various levels. Three years later, the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the LAC was followed by an agreement between India and China on confidence-building measures in the military field along the LAC on November 29, 1996, during the visit of Chinese President Ziyang Zemin to India. The upward swing of defence cooperation and military engagement between the two countries was given a further impetus during the visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in April 2005. It was against this background of heightened engagement that the then Defence Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, visited China in May/June 2006 and held wide-ranging talks with Premier Wen Jiabao and other senior Chinese leaders. The high point of the visit was the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which is the first ever of its kind between the two countries. The MoU envisages the establishment of a mechanism to ensure frequent and regular exchanges between leaders and officials of the Defence Ministries and the armed forces of the two countries in addition to developing an annual calendar for holding regular joint military exercises and training programmes. During the past few years, India and China conducted joint naval manoeuvres, but the interaction between their ground forces was limited to border meetings and mountaineering expeditions, and there had been no interaction between the air forces. The MoU signed thus aimed at addressing these imperatives. These gains were further consolidated during the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to India in November 2006. In the joint declaration on November 21, it was mentioned that “the exchange of visits in the field of defence had resulted in the building of mutual trust and enhancement of mutual understanding between the defence establishments of the two countries. Certain concrete steps were taken as a follow-up of the CBMs. For example, the armed forces of India and China held a meeting at a new border point in Arunachal Pradesh on November 18, 2006, on the eve of President Hu Jintao’s visit to India. The two sides met at Kibithu in Anjwa district of Arunachal Pradesh, and discussed modalities for the conduct of troops along the border. Encouraged by the success of the first ever joint military exercise between China and India in Kunming in Yunnan in 2007, a week-long China-India joint anti-terrorist training programme was kicked off on December 6, 2008, in Belgaun in Karnataka with the performance of the Chinese Tai Chi and Indian martial arts. The defence cooperation and military exchange, however, suffered a setback because of the trust-deficit. It is hoped the recently concluded visit of Major-Gen Gurmeet Singh will give a boost to the bilateral relationship between India and China. After all, the security scenario involving the two countries should not be perceived in terms of defence preparedness alone. There should be mutual trust and confidence building as well at the highest levels. This, in turn, can lead to troop reductions on both sides of the border, resulting in a decline in the huge expenditure incurred on maintaining the behemoth of armies.n The writer is Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,
New Delhi.
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Humourless in uniform The rivalry between different uniformed services and the bureaucracy in our country is legendary. Although free from malice, the contention invariably takes on insular undertones with each side never missing an opportunity to: “Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer And without sneering, teach the rest to sneer” Born to an illustrious and disciplined army officer with a tangy sense of humour and a talented mother and married to a police officer, my loyalties have always been divided between the two services — something for which I have often landed in a piquant situation. Nonetheless, I must admit to a bias towards the latter, having spent a greater part of my life in the company of a civil, witty, intelligent, professionally competent and humane person. What has prompted this musing is a statement cursorily made by a socially active citizen on a satirical piece published by a police officer recently. Albeit the observation was followed by grudging admiration, in a rather sweeping statement, all police officers were reduced to stick-wielding monsters, incapable of refined tastes and the kind of wry humor expressed in the article. Oblivious of the stereotypes that such a thoughtless comment was likely to reinforce in public, our friend carried on regardless, even suggesting borrowed intelligence, much to my dismay. Thankfully enough, the love of lucre had ceased to be the exclusive prerogative of this much-maligned tribe now and hence was discreetly left out of the scathing accusation, as a safeguard against the foot-in-mouth epidemic! I was outright indignant. How such broad generalisations could be made with such perfect élan, I wondered. This was something serious and definitely needed subtle but civil intervention, I thought to myself. I had grown up believing that wit had certainly got nothing to do with well-polished boots or batons. It lay neither in ‘khaki’ nor in ‘olive green’ or even in ‘civvies’ for that matter! You either had it or you didn’t. Agreed, that some people could boast of a native genius and ready brilliance, but the would-be wits were also free to happily thrive on borrowed humour, were they not? Be that as it may, the idea was to generate smiles, not scowls, any way. I found myself resolutely offering a vociferous defence in the face of such irresponsible and unfair prosecution. All too soon an audience began to swell — even take sides and pitch in. The ensuing cacophony rapidly and predictably turned into a free-for-all, with each side vying to out-shout the other. While this comedy of manners was unfolding and gaining momentum much to the curiosity and amusement of the dramatis personae, I was thankfully enough accosted face-on by a friend who I expectantly looked up to for support. He came, he saw, he looked askance, couldn’t understand what the entire shindy was about and in all his earthy wisdom, digressed into an eloquent discourse on the merits of intelligent drafting instead! I was completely flummoxed. Apparently, he too had left his funny bone behind! Grinning sheepishly, I left my prosecutor gloating much to the satisfaction of the witnesses for the prosecution and discreetly beat a hasty
retreat!
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We are still growing too fast
World
Population Day is an occasion for reflection on the population trends in the country. The excellent work put in by Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, in sophisticated data capture and number crunching to produce results (census 2011) within weeks of enumeration, provides abundant material for the same. A good place to start would be the National Population Policy of India, which was formulated in the year 2000 with the long-term objective of achieving a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection. The immediate objective of the policy was to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure, and health personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective was to bring the Total Fertility Rate (TFR is the average number of children each woman would have in her life time) to replacement levels by 2010, through vigorous implementation of inter-sectoral operational strategies.
Options that we have
What are the options available to us? The message of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) is still valid. We have to address the overall reproductive child and health issues. The women have to be educated and empowered. They have to have a voice and their reproductive health as well as overall status in the society has to be improved. The family welfare programme has to be decentralised. We have to map the areas, which are poorly performing and focus on them. Within these groups, the marginalized groups i.e. SCs/STs and the poor need special focus. They have to be appropriately counseled and high quality family welfare services made available to them. Sixtyfive percent of our women are below the age of 25, therefore, the sexual health needs of the adolescents have to be addressed. We need to provide life skills to adolescent girls. Simultaneously, the engagement of men is extremely critical. As boys, they have to be groomed in a manner that they do not grow up into exploitative men. Domestic violence is still a major impediment to women’s’ empowerment that needs to be tackled. The boys have to be trained to share responsible parenthood. The management of the family welfare programme has to be improved. We need to have public health professionals at all levels who are able to make sense of data from the census, civil registration records, National Family Health Surveys as well as their own MIS records; draw out policy implications and effectively implement the family welfare programme. If we compare the figures between UP and Andhra Pradesh, most sterilizations in UP are carried out after three or more children, where as in the case of Andhra Pradesh, most sterilizations have been carried out after one or two children. Obviously, the programme in Andhra Pradesh is more focused and effective. The elected leaders, Gram Panchayat members, members of Legislative Assemblies and Parliamentarians could play a critical role in this. Unfortunately, most of them have been shying away from this important area after the emergency experience. Last year, there was a debate in Parliament on this issue after more than three decades; while the Parliamentarians may have taken time in discussing this issue; there was a rare unanimity amongst them that we need to address the issue. —AS
How have we fared against these goals? The total population of India today stands at 1.21 billion, up from 1.02 billion in 2001; almost 17.5 per cent of the world’s population lives in India. It is equal to the combined population of the US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan. Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra together are home to more people than those in the US. The good news is that the decadal population growth rate has continued its decline over 1961-71; the current rate at 17.64 per cent is the lowest since Independence. But wait, we cannot rejoice; China grows at 5.43 per cent; Brazil at 9.39 per cent and our own Kerala at a little more than 4 per cent. Only Pakistan in our neighborhood is growing at a higher rate of 24.78 per cent. The absolute increase in population at 181 million, for the first time, was less than the 182 million in the last decade. Even this increase is however, more than the population of Brazil, the 5th most populous country in the world. True, the States of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have shown a decline in the rate of growth of population, however, they are still growing at more than 20 per cent per decade with Bihar leading at a decadal growth rate of 26 per cent! In the case of Chhattisgarh, the rate of growth of population has actually increased from 18.3 per cent in the nineties to 22.6 per cent now. These states account for 42 per cent of India’s population and are likely to account for 52 per cent of the future increase in population of India. To get an idea of the ramifications of the issue consider Uttar Pradesh; it has added the population of a Punjab to its population during the last decade. Bihar added 3 times the population of Himachal Pradesh; even poor Jharkhand added the population of Himachal Pradesh to its population during 2001-2011! Clearly the increase in population is most in the states least able to support it. Economic growth This has obvious implications for economic growth. The rate of growth of population in the poor states stands at 20.92 per cent as against the national average of 17.34 per cent; whereas in the case of better-off states it is at a low of 14.99 per cent. The higher the rate of growth of population the poorer the state! How is Uttar Pradesh with poor Human Development indicators and 40.9 per cent of the population living below the poverty line going to absorb the additional population of a Punjab? Our ability to address this issue will determine whether the increase in population is a demographic dividend or a disaster. On a more positive note, the literacy rate has improved by 9.2 percentage points to 74 per cent. What is even more heartening; the female literacy rate has improved by 11.7 per cent to 65.46 per cent. The gender gap in literacy has come down from 21.59 per cent to 16.68 per cent. Most improvement has taken place in the economically backward states: the so called Empowered Action Group (EAG) States. The increase in female literacy rate has expectedly resulted in lowering the fertility rate. There is however, an inverse co-relation of sex-ratio with education and affluence; the decline in sex ratio was higher in the case of women with 10 years or more of education than for mothers with no education. The census figures have revealed an acute gender distress. While the overall sex ratio has gone up from 933 to 940; the sex ratio for children between 0-6 years continues to decline. At 912, it is worse now than in any decade since Independence. It has been estimated that for second order births where the first is a female the conditional sex ratio has fallen to an abysmal 836 girls per 1000 boys. Gender distress Many districts in Punjab, with a poor track record as far as sex ratio is concerned, such as; Kapurthala, Fatehgarh Sahib, Shahid Bhagat Singh Nagar, Bhatinda, Jalandhar, Patiala, Rupnagar and Sangrur have shown a marked improvement in sex ratio. Neighboring Haryana has recorded its best female ratio in at least 110 years, despite districts like Jhajjar recording the lowest sex ratio of 774, in the country, for 0-6 year population. In the 50 districts with highest Muslim population, 39 districts show a drop in child sex ratio. Pulwama, Badgaon, Kupwara, Anantnag, Baramula and Srinagar figure in the worst affected districts in this regard. They have contributed to an alarming decline in the child sex ratio in J&K from 941 in 2001 to 859 currently. This is a reflection on the continuing poor status of women in our country. It is going to be difficult to achieve the demographic goals unless we address this issue. We also need to understand the other reasons behind the rapid increase in population. There is a considerable wanted fertility in the high fertility states; on an average, as per various surveys, the women in the eastern States want one more child than the women in the South. There are rational reasons for this; IMR in a state like Madhya Pradesh even today stands at 67, obviously the poor have more children as an insurance against higher child mortality in their states. Son preference The son preference is another major reason; the family is considered incomplete unless there is a son. In many cases the couples keep on having more children until they have a son. The girls in the high fertility states get married early; then they have children early to demonstrate their fertility, sometimes too many of them, and many keep on bearing children till late. One of the major reasons for the same is low female literacy rate and non-use of contraceptives in these States. Then there is unwanted fertility. A number of surveys have shown that almost 60 per cent of the women do not want another child even in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The access to quality family welfare services is however, extremely poor, therefore they are in a way forced to bear more children. We need to increase access to quality family welfare services in these regions. Even in states, which have reached a replacement level of fertility, we need to delay the age of marriage and ensure spacing between children for healthy growth of mothers and children. Clearly, we have a long way to go to achieve the goals we set for ourselves in the population policy 2000; the total fertility rate in the country still stands at 2.6 as against the expected 2.1. The current projections show we are likely to reach a replacement level of fertility only by the year 2021 and if growth continues at the same rate, stabilisation by the year 2056-57 at a level of 1.62 billion. Will this population be sustainable? We need to reflect on this. The time to act is now. The writer is Joint Secretary, Ministry of Human Resource Development. He was formerly Executive Director, National Population Stabilisation Fund
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