The intriguing story of how Muammar Gaddafi's son backed the carrying out of an opinion poll on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir has been laid bare by a London-based British academic.

Saif ul Islam Gaddafi is better known to the wider public for his luxurious home in the exclusive London suburb of Hampstead and for the recent controversy over whether he merits his Ph.D from the London School of Economics.

Less well known is his interest in sponsoring an opinion poll about how Kashmiris on either side of the LoC view their current problems and their future.

It was Saif ul Islam who in 2009 formally commissioned Kings College, London, and the well known polling company Ipsos-Mori, as well as their Indian and Pakistani affiliates, to carry out the first ever public opinion survey of its kind on both sides of the LoC.

The results of the survey, which are available on websites of Ipsos-Mori and the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, established that the overwhelming majority of Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC regard the solution of the dispute as a top priority. They also put economic issues as central to their day-to-day concerns.

On political questions there is a wide range of views. On India's side of the LoC, for example, only 2 per cent of the population wants to join Pakistan. Conversely, on the Pakistani side, only 1 per cent wants to join India. On the other hand, while a majority of Kashmiris in the vale of Kashmir say they would like independence, everywhere else support for independence is minimal.

Furthermore, while there is no majority for a simple political solution, such as joining India, joining Pakistan or independence, there is widespread support for freeing up the existing LoC and making it an open border across which people and goods can move freely.

There is, according to the poll, widespread support for an end to militancy and the engagement of all shades of Kashmiri opinion in finding a political solution.

The statistics speak for themselves. For example, according to the poll, 43 per cent on both sides of the LoC said they would vote for independence. However, in the vale, figures range between 75 and 95 per cent for independence. In Jammu division, however, independence is favoured by only 1 per cent. The figures for Kargil and Leh were 20 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.

Support for Kashmir to join India was restricted to 21 per cent overall, 1 per cent only in Pakistani Occupied Kashmir (POK) and 28 per cent in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

However J&K showed wide variation between districts in support for remaining part of India. They ranged from 2 per cent in Baramullah to 80 per cent in Kargil.

Support for joining Pakistan was restricted to 50 per cent in POK and a mere 2 per cent in J&K, where even the highest level of support (in Srinagar and Badgam) was only 6 and 7 per cent, respectively.

Dr Robert Bradnock, visiting fellow at Kings College, London, who along with Ipsos-Mori helped to design the poll and subsequently wrote a report, said the poll sheds crucial light on the diversity of Kashmiri opinion.

"It offers no simple solutions", Bradnock told The Tribune. "Its results demonstrate the critical need for negotiation between the governments of India and Pakistan with the full engagement of Kashmiri opinion."

Bradnock, who was born near Agra in 1943 and who is married to an Indian, added, "The poll also demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kashmiris believe that the resolution of the dispute is urgent and that it holds the key to their future, day-to-day well being."

Asked to comment on Saif ul Islam's involvement, Bradnock revealed that the Libyan dictator's son first made contact back in 2002, shortly after visiting both Pakistan and India, while he was preparing for his masters degree at the LSE. At the time he also headed the Gaddafi International Foundation for Charities and Development.

"I was in my office and a friend and colleague rang to ask if I would give a one-to-one briefing on Kashmir for Saif", Bradnock explains. "At this time in 2002 tensions were high with the widely discussed possibility of a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. It was also a time when Libya was internationally isolated and looking for a way back into the international community.

"Saif wanted to understand the roots of this dispute and to explore what if anything his family foundation could contribute towards a peaceful resolution." That was the start of discussions, which continued for the next two-three years, ultimately resulting in his suggestion that he sponsor a poll.

Tokyo, April 7
A major aftershock rocked northeast Japan late on Thursday and a tsunami warning was issued for the coast devastated by last month's massive quake and tsunami that crippled a nuclear power plant.

The tsunami warning was later lifted and no damage from the quake, measured at magnitude 7.4 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, was detected at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said. Workers struggling to bring the plant under control were evacuated soon after the aftershock struck.

Large parts of northern Japan, where infrastructure was severely damaged by the March 11 quake and tsunami, were without electricity following the latest of many aftershocks, the biggest since last month's killer quake.

In the capital, Tokyo, buildings shook. "It started out as nothing much, then the building started swaying quite strongly," a Reuters witness said.

NHK public television cited the police as saying seven persons had been injured, two of them seriously. Last month's disaster has disrupted industry and affected supply chains around the world but it was not immediately clear if Thursday's aftershock would compound those problems. — Reuters

Sanaa, April 7
A Gulf Arab plan for Yemen’s President to step down will guarantee the veteran leader and his family immunity from prosecution, an opposition source said today, but youth activists said that it should be rejected.

The United States and Gulf Arab countries, including Yemen’s key financial backer, Saudi Arabia, appear ready to push aside a long-time ally against Al-Qaida’s Yemen-based wing to avoid a chaotic collapse of the poorest Arab state.

Saleh’s sometimes violent response to two months of protests against his 32-year rule has tried the patience of Washington and Riyadh, both of which have been the target of attempted attacks by Al-Qaida’s Yemeni branch.

The Gulf proposal for talks in Riyadh was presented to Saleh and a coalition of opposition parties this week. Saleh welcomed it, but the opposition has withheld its response.

Gulf sources said the plan envisaged handing power to an interim council of tribal and political leaders who would help appoint a national unity government ahead of elections.

An opposition source said the proposal would give Saleh and his family, whose control over key posts has long angered many Yemenis, immunity from prosecution. Youth activists said in a statement that was unacceptable.

“We affirm that this is a people’s revolution demanding the fall and the trial of a regime ... to build a new civilian state according to the will of the people, not international parties or political parties that do not represent us,” said a statement in the name of a coalition of protest groups in Sanaa. — Reuters

Rio De Janeiro, April 7
A man believed to be a former student opened fire in a school here today, killing 12 persons and wounding 22 others before taking his own life, authorities said.

“The information we have is that the number of fatalities is 13, and some 22 wounded, including gunshot wounds to the head,” Colonel Evandro Bezerra, a fire department spokesman, said.

He identified the shooter as 24-year-old Wellington Menezes de Oliveira, who was believed to be a former student at the school. The police said he left a letter saying he wanted to commit suicide.

Initial reports said he entered the school wearing a backpack and said he was going to a conference, before opening fire in a classroom.

The victims included students and staff at the public school in the western Realengo neighbourhood.

TV Globo News showed images of the wounded being loaded into ambulances at the public school in the western Rio neighbourhood. — AFP