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Clamour
for Lokpal Obama for
second term |
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Hung
House in Assam?
Towards
Arab Renaissance
Remembering
Cairo
From ‘jobless
growth’, Punjab has moved to ‘job-shrinking growth’. Agriculture
does not attract educated youth. The mediocre quality of education
renders them unemployable. They see no road except the one going to
airport
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Obama for second term
US President Barrack Obama has announced his re-election plan and there are bright chances of his getting an opportunity to serve for a second term. What goes in his favour more than anything else is that his opponents in the Republican camp are a thoroughly confused lot. No one knows who among the Republicans will be in a better position to give a tough fight to Mr Obama. Mr Asmitt Roomney, an economic expert, who claims to have strong credentials to challenge Mr Obama by concentrating on his weak points, including domestic issues, is no match for the incumbent President. It is true that the Obama administration has not done well on the economic front, with the rate of unemployment remaining as high as 8.9 per cent. But it has many achievements in various areas which can help Mr Obama trounce his opponents. The latest opinion poll has put his approval ratings at a little less than 50 per cent and the issues mentioned to judge his popularity are foreign affairs, Libya, health care, economy and the federal budget deficit. However, if only foreign policy-related issues are taken into consideration, there are chances of President Obama’s ratings going up considerably. The Americans by and large appreciate his handling of Iraq and Afghanistan. The Obama administration has openly sided with the pro-democracy protesters in West Asia. In Egypt, a pro-US Mubarak regime had to become history with Washington DC doing little to save its protégé. Even in Bahrain and Yemen, the autocratic rulers, who have always relied on US help in times of crisis, are being told to give up in favour of the pro-democracy agitators. The case of Libya, of course, is different. The US along with its allies like France could have militarily forced Col Gaddafi to leave Libya to the Libyan public, but that would have led to a massive loss of human lives and a misunderstanding among the Arabs that the Western powers were intervening in the Arab land to protect their own interests. Hence the use of other tactics to bring about regime change in Libya. In any case, President Obama today appears to be better placed to take on his opponents than what he was in 2008, when he created history by winning the US Presidential election.
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Hung House in Assam?
Assam
seems headed for a hung assembly once again as in 2006 and the real speculation is on which party would be the single largest and which combine would ultimately end up in the driver’s seat. For the Congress which has been in the saddle since 2001, this is a golden opportunity to thwart anti-incumbency since the Opposition is woefully lacking in cohesion. The Asom Gana Parishad and the BJP had struck an alliance for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections but fell apart thereafter. In this election there is no alliance between them but a post-poll understanding could be a possibility. That could pose a challenge to the Congress which is relying on a post-poll arrangement with the Bodoland People’s Front which it had partnered since the 2006 elections. Clearly, the parties in Assam are waiting to see how the post-poll scenario unfolds. Between the AGP and the BJP, ostensibly there is little love lost but both see expediency and merit in forging links to thwart a third term for Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Both see co-existence as a lesser evil than giving room to the Congress to dominate the body politic. The Congress and the BPF are virtually in the same boat, attracting each other with the objective of sharing power. The Congress has had a virtual sway over minority Muslim voters until the All India United Democratic Front, which is an amalgam of a dozen minority political groups, came on the electoral scene in 2005. Since the AIUDF has good relations with AGP’s Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, it would not be averse to tying up with the AGP after the elections. But whether it would accept an arrangement in which the BJP is a partner is a moot question. In an election which is expected to be tight, independents and smaller parties could also have a role to play. All in all, there are interesting possibilities ahead and there would be the inevitable marriages of convenience.
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Education is a better safeguard of liberty than a standing army. — Edward Everett
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Towards Arab Renaissance
The
widespread movement of peaceful protests throughout the Arab region is much more than a revolt or rebellion to grab power from this or that monarch or dictator, though it will topple autocratic rulers who try to resist the tide. The movement marks the beginning of a pan-Arab phenomenon of the awakening of a civilization from centuries of slumber. Not all Arab countries are alike, but there are common features to the protests: protesters all over are young men and women — children of the age of knowledge fired by the driving ideas of our time, of people-power and people’s rights, freedom and liberty, democracy and enfranchisement. They are adept at exploiting the power of the Internet and Facebook as tools of mass organisation. Their energy, idealism and determination are infectious and they have gained the sympathy and support of the general populace and, in some countries, even the respect and understanding of the armed forces. There is little evidence of coordination or cooperation among protesters in different countries, but they are all motivated by a new-found sense of power to shape their own destiny. Memories of the past glory and achievements of Arabia animate their drive for the renewal and modernisation of their societies. A thousand years ago, the Arab region was known for its high achievements in astronomy, philosophy, algebra and mathematics, for its cities of cultural renown and its centres of trade and commerce, for rulers of great wisdom and for the imaginative arts of story-telling. The best scientists of the time came from this region, which conversed on equal footing with Indian and Greeco-Roman civilizations on its eastern and western flanks. That creative spirit withered after the 14th century; and Western dominance after the first World War and the settlement, so called, of 1922 destroyed it altogether. The current political upheaval in these ancient lands is the harbinger of an Arab Renaissance. The Arab world is not a monolith, but once democracy is established in all these countries, their coming together into a Union of Arab States would be a natural development. From Morocco to Yemen, these countries have much more in common than the constituent states of the European Union. The Union, I believe, will be a group of moderate states friendly both to the East and the West. Islam is a vital part of an Arab’s life, and he does not see a threat to his religion from any quarter. His struggle is for liberty, democracy, modernity, progress and dignity. On the long road to the goal there are hurdles in the shape of vested interests of tribal chieftains, obdurate autocrats and unyielding kings. There is no tolerance among the people for dictators seeking to perpetuate dynastic rule and they will be the first to go. For reasons of tradition, tribal loyalty, real or supposed sanctity of holy descent and belated public munificence, some of the royal houses of Arabia may gain some time, but the demand for reform of monarchical regimes is also gathering force and only those will survive that acquire popular sanction as constitutional monarchs. The Arab region lies at the geographic centre of the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. Its inherent strategic importance is enhanced by its abundant resources of oil and gas. Therefore, whether one likes it or not, the fact remains that strategic, political and economic interest of major powers are engaged, and that reality cannot be wished away. Developments in North Africa, across the narrow Mediterranean Ocean, are bound to be of special interest and concern to France and Italy. The US has security relationships with virtually all Arab countries, and despite Washington’s closeness to the rulers, the first non-white US President has, with prescient wisdom, called the region’s dictators to quit, and nudged its kings and sheikhs to reform and liberalise their regimes. In Libya’s case, President Sarkozy has gone a step further and accorded recognition to the Revolutionary Council. Contrary to the late Professor Huntington’s view, Arabs are not inhospitable to liberal ideals, and they do share the universal hunger for liberty, human rights and democracy. President Obama recognised this and chose to stand by the Arab people, braving criticism at home and risking the odium and disaffection of Arab allies and friends. This is the sort of thing leaders are for. Too much is being made of the so-called Shia-Sunni divide in the Arab world and a consequent rise in Iran’s role and influence in the region. In my own experience of the region’s people, an Arab is an Arab, be he Sunni or Shia. In Bahrain and Syria, Sunni and Shia Muslims are seen together in the protests demanding regime reform and people’s enfranchisement. Iran’s dispatch of warships to Arabia’s Mediterranean shores, supposedly in support of Syria’s Asad and Lebanon’s Hizbullah, is likely to prove a counter-productive provocation. Egypt’s influence and example will reshape this region — not Iran’s or, for that matter, Turkey’s. In this environment of a regionwide liberating upsurge, where does Gaddafi, the most antiquated of recent history’s despots, fit in? He has threatened to chase and slaughter Libyan dissenters, to the last man or woman, house-by-house and room-by-room. His army of mercenaries is doing just that and it has to be stopped. With him around, there will be no peace in the Arab region, and Africa will also be badly affected. That is why Gaddafi’s Foreign and Interior Ministers and several Libyan Ambassadors have deserted him; that is why the Arab League and the African Union had asked the UN Security Council to ensure safety of the Libyan people. That is why Lebanon, under a Hizbullah Prime Minister, chose to move Resolution 1973 in the Council, and that is why at least two Arab countries have joined, and more may join the US, Britain and France in the air assaults on Gaddafi’s marauders. No one was asking India to send its air force or ground troops to Libya: so, what high moral dictate or compelling necessity led to India’s neutral stance in the vote on Security Council Resolution 1973? President Medvedev of Russia has publicly nullified his own government’s criticism of the resolution. China’s abstention, in effect, means support for action against Gaddafi to proceed. India’s abstention implies indifference to the continuation of a genocide openly launched by a brutal dictator. What is the point in a country being on the Security Council if it is to sit on the fence on issues of this gravity? The abstention vote was bad; the explanation of vote and its elaborations that followed made it worse. Information was not wanting; TV screens in Delhi and New York had all that was needed for a decision. Or, did someone here really believe that Gaddafi would heed our advice to abjure violence? Brazil and Germany might have had valid domestic reasons for their abstaining in the vote: India’s links with its Arab neighbours are of a different dimension altogether. In its moral space, at least, India should be seen standing by the
people. The writer, a former Foreign Secretary of India, is President, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
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Remembering Cairo It
was 1980. I was required to join as Chief Engineer of a ship, sailing from Amsterdam, at Port Said. Accordingly, I arrived at Cairo in advance and was booked at Hotel Everest Cairo, not far from Tahrir Square. My shipping office was located in the same wide and spacious square. Port Said and Cairo are connected with a beautiful wide road. Soon after I was booked in my hotel a message came that my ship from Amsterdam had got delayed by about 12 days. That excited me as now I could visit the famous Cairo Museum, the pyramids as well the Aswan dam. I had also a young electrical engineer joining the same ship, staying in the same hotel. He made himself as one belonging to a princely Indian state among about 50 Arab female members of the hotel staff by sporting a Rajasthani-style turban with the chooridar pyjama and sherwani during breakfast. During one of my early visits to my shipping office at Tahrir Square I had a long chat with the shpping office boss, a retired Egyptian army officer, Ashraf Sadiq, who had personally seen the departure of King Faud of Egypt by a ship laden with his entire royal household items, departing from the port of Alexandria before Gamal Nasser took over power in Egypt. Nasser was a popular leader and a politician of international fame, close to our late Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Nasser’s successor Anwar Sadat was killed openly by rebels and this was witnessed by Ashraf Sadiq. During my about two-week stay in Cairo I found general public quite appreciative of India and Indian people. They were hospitable but quite sensitive on subjects like Palestine state. On such topics their reaction was abruptly mercurial and no alternative or moderating talk could be acceptable to them. One day while proceeding to Cairo Museum from my hotel I came across two Egyptian Arabs selling replicas of the famous pyramids on the roadside. My ship’s young electrical engineer was also accompanying me. He picked up one of the mini pyramids in his hand, looked at it, resented its high cost and returned it to the seller. The vendor did not like this and was furious. I intervened and being aware of the sensitivity of Egyptian public for their heritage items advised the engineer to pick up the item, hold it in his hand, kiss it gently and return the same respectfully. He did the same and all was
well.
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From ‘jobless growth’, Punjab has moved to ‘job-shrinking growth’. Agriculture does not attract educated youth. The mediocre quality of education renders them unemployable. They see no road except the one going to airport
Unemployment
in Punjab, especially among the educated youth, is very high. On March 24 the problem of unemployment was debated in the Vidhan Sabha. In response to a question, Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal stated that there are 9.58 lakh persons unemployed in the state. Gurdaspur district tops the list by having 1.57 lakh unemployed youth followed by Sangrur (1.17 lakh). High unemployment is also reported in Ferozepur (92,247), Jalandhar (58,886), Hoshiarpur (54,111), Patiala (49,566), Ludhiana (46,651) and Mansa (42,648). Earlier, a survey conducted by the Labour Bureau, Chandigarh, Ministry of Labour, revealed a high incidence of unemployment in Punjab. The survey suggested 10.5 per cent of the total workforce as unemployed in the state against the national average of 9.4 per cent. The high incidence of unemployment is accompanied by widespread drug addiction among Punjabi youth. This deadly combination is rapidly pushing Punjabi youth to the threshold of a “lost generation”. At this critical juncture, the state should assign top priority to mitigate the problem of unemployment and in the process improve the growth profile of the state and also save youth from being an easy prey to drugs. Employment generation has hardly been the focus of a development strategy in Punjab. Boosting agricultural production has been the primary focus of the much celebrated growth model. The implicit principle of the model is that benefits of high growth in agriculture percolate down and automatically reduce income inequality, unemployment and poverty. This “trickle-down hypothesis” did work partially in Punjab with regard to income inequality and poverty. The model, however, was a total failure in case of employment generation. The nature of agricultural activities does not match with the skills and preferences of educated youth and hence the benefits of all job avenues of expanding agricultural activities have largely been reaped by migrant labour. Another handicap of the growth model is its weak sectoral linkages within the state. The sectoral input-output flows suggest that only a marginal share of increased agricultural production has found its way to industry for processing within the state. A lion’s share of Punjab agricultural production has been exported to food-deficit states of India. Thus, benefits of the agriculture sector of Punjab have been realised in the form of ago-based industries in food-deficit states. The “stunning” growth trajectory of the agriculture sector has not only resulted in “jobless growth” but also in “job-shrinking growth”. Negative employment elasticity of the agriculture sector in Punjab confirms the “job-shrinking growth” phenomenon. It is not just that the structure of the Punjab economy in which agriculture predominates is unfavorable to employment of the educated; the mediocre quality of education is equally responsible for unemployment. Punjab has a good network of educational institutions. Barring a few, these institutions produce substandard students having huge employability deficits. The quality of pass-outs is no way near the skill requirements of industry. The professional and applied courses have mainly adopted the teaching pedagogy of liberal arts disciplines having emphasis on classroom teaching only. The lip-service to summer training and internship and non-involvement of potential employers in course development exercises have reduced many professional colleges to degree-printing institutions. A survey conducted by the National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) indicates that employability of professional courses is around 25 per cent, which also includes top-ranking institutions like IITs having 100 per cent placements. If the top-ranking institutions are excluded the employability will come down to be abysmally low. In case of Punjab this phenomenon is more pronounced, given the large number of seats remaining vacant in professional private colleges. The employability deficit of Punjabi youth is also evident from a recently held recruitment drive by the Punjab Police for the posts of constable. Though the eligibility for the post was +2 pass, many of the candidates having graduate and postgraduate degrees, including M.B.A., M.C.A., M.Sc., B.E./B.Tech, and L.L.B, were among the aspirants. A paradigm shift is taking place in the philosophy of development. According to the emerging paradigm, human resources are the new drivers of growth. The predominance of young human resources in the profile of population has been described as a “demographic dividend”. In India youth comprise about 65 per cent of the population against the world average of 18 per cent. The human resource-centric model of growth is most suitable to Punjab as its production-oriented sectors — agriculture and industry — cannot be relied upon for future growth. The Finance Minister of Punjab has made a large 52 per cent hike in the budgetary allocation for education, acknowledging the pivotal role human capital plays in growth. For reaping the benefits of human capital, the state needs to evolve an aggressive strategy for gainfully employing its educated youth. A good employment strategy will not only give a fillip to growth but also liberate youth from the clutches of deadly drugs. The Green Revolution is being extended to food-deficit states, which no longer depend entirely on Punjab. A huge quantity of food grains procured in Punjab gets spoiled due to FCI mismanagement. In the light of this Punjab should start processing its food grains and export only processed products. This policy shift will encourage the setting up of agro-based industries, which, being labour-intensive, will offer sizeable jobs to matriculate onward pass-outs. For preparing 10th standard and +2 pass-outs for agro-based industries, the existing Industrial Training Institutes and Polytechnics should be upgraded to community colleges. The “community college model” has worked very successfully in Canada and has also been adopted in some south Indian states. Community colleges are run mainly by the local community, especially by local employers. The curriculum is designed as per job skills required by the local market. This model can align education with the job market. For improving the employability of college and university students, Punjab should start a “quality drive” to cleanse its educational institutions. For weeding out substandard educational institutions, the state in consultation with the affiliating universities and boards should conduct a rigorous academic quality and employability audit of all the institutions. The institutions which fail to qualify the audit test should be given five years to improve, failing which these should automatically cease to exist. State funding should be linked with the result of quality audit. No doubt, there are national-level accreditation agencies, the educational institutions in the state have not opted for accreditation on a larger scale in the absence of rewards and penalties associated with accreditation. Along with undertaking a quality drive, the government should make it obligatory for universities, boards and autonomous bodies to involve all stake-holders, particularly potential employers, in curriculum development and teaching. This practice will bridge the gap between skill formation in institutions and skill requirements in industry. The lecture-based teaching pedagogy should give way to field-based, problem-solving, case-method and hands-on methods of learning. A complete dependence on an external examination should be replaced by a proper mix of external examination and continuous evaluation. Giving adequate weightage to continuous evaluation will make the learning process a regular, stress-free phenomenon and, in the long run, help in improving employability of the pass-outs. Youth prefer government and corporate jobs. However, the organised sector accounts for 10 per cent employment only. For enabling youth to find gainful employment in the unorganised sector, particularly for starting self-employment ventures, two policy recommendations are suggested. First, the state should encourage educated unemployed youth to form co-operatives for self-employment. Subsidies and soft loans can motivate youth to form co-operatives. Secondly, unemployed youth are generally averse to self-employment due to bureaucratic procedures and corrupt practices associated with government schemes, including those Centrally funded. For overcoming these malpractices, fund sanctioning job fairs on the pattern of placement fairs should be organised in technical institutes. Teams of governmental agencies and bank officials should sanction subsidies and loans on the spot by following user-friendly and transparent procedures. The writer is the Dean, Faculty of Arts, Panjab University, Chandigarh
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