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Triumph at IAEA Rightful stance |
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Ways of the ISI
Revival of economy
Of mentors and
tor(mentors)
Shortsighted on Kashmir Chatterati Who should solve this Internet crisis?
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Triumph at IAEA WHEN the dust settles, it may well turn out that the Indo-US nuclear agreement had its roughest passage not in hostile shores abroad, but in the hallowed halls of India’s Parliament. It has taken three years after the path-breaking agreement was signed between India and the US in July 2005, but the first concrete step in shrugging off decades of invidious technology isolation happened at Vienna on Friday. The board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), spurred by US backing and the support of its Director-General, adopted the India-specific safeguards agreement by consensus. Nay-sayers of various kinds from our ever-unfriendly neighbour Pakistan to various non-proliferation treaty (NPT) ideologues, got to voice their demurrals — but no more. It was heartening to note the full-scale approval of countries like the UK, France, Russia, Germany and even Australia. Iran, as a non-board member, surprisingly pitched in with a no, but focused more on the US, highlighting what it saw as US double standards and the eventual legitimisation of Israel’s nuclear programme as an unstated US goal. Pakistan has realised that this agreement is going to go ahead, and is already shifting to a stance where the deal is made out to be a “new standard” for other NPT countries, notably itself. The Chinese were also emphasising a “non-discriminatory approach.” Considering the strategic relationship that these two neighbours and fellow India rivals enjoy, they may well be setting the stage for a rival agreement of some sort. India’s immediate focus is on the meeting of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which is slated for August 21. Opposition is expected to get a little more strident at the NSG, and there is still some ambivalence about the stance of countries like China. NSG members at the IAEA did not come out with an outright no, but they may well throw a spanner in the works by trying to attach restrictive conditions that circumscribe India’s strategic elbow-room. The strong support from the United States and other important P-5 countries like the UK, France and Russia is expected to override the remnant opposition. Once that is done, the focus will shift to the US Congress for ratification. India is at the threshold of a major strategic shift in its place in the global order. |
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Rightful stance LOK SABHA Speaker Somnath Chatterjee has finally broken his silence on the issue of his breach of party discipline. His statement is a forceful rebuttal of the charges made against him that he did not pay heed to the demands of the party. Anybody who reads it will come to the conclusion that the disciplinary action taken against him by the CPM was totally unwarranted. There is little doubt that he has been more sinned against than sinning. The point that he was elected unanimously by all the political parties represented in the House could not be lost sight of. But the CPM leadership did not take this into account while including his name among the party MPs withdrawing support to the UPA government. From the statement it is clear that even after giving him freedom to decide whether to stay as Speaker or not, party General Secretary Prakash Karat struck against him against all canons of justice. At every stage, the leadership was going back on its word given both in private and in public to Mr Chatterjee. His stand has been consistent right from the beginning. As Speaker, he had risen above political affiliations and he could, therefore, neither go against the government, nor for it. Neutrality was not just a matter of convenience but a prerequisite for anyone holding the post. So long as he held the post, he could not be given a whip directing him to vote for or against a Bill or a motion. Any such order would “seriously compromise” the constitutional position of the Speaker. And for good measure, he has clarified that he has no intention of quitting the post till, possibly, he completes his term, i.e., till the next House is constituted. The Speaker has used the occasion to think aloud about the need to evolve some healthy conventions that should guide the conduct of speakers. While a speaker was not supposed to take part in any political activity, nobody had thought of the need for him to resign from the party on whose ticket he was elected. On completion of his tenure it should be possible for him to rejoin the party. Such a convention has a lot to commend itself in view of the problems Mr Somnath Chatterjee faced while presiding over the debate on the motion of confidence in July. |
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Ways of the ISI PAKISTAN’S ISI appears to be busy nullifying whatever has been achieved on the peace front with India. There is no other reason why it should have planned car-bomb blasts to destroy the Indian Embassy in Kabul last month. How can New Delhi carry on the composite dialogue process with Islamabad when its intelligence agency is engaged in harming India’s interests in Afghanistan with the help of militants? If Pakistan is jealous of India’s increasing presence there, masterminding terrorist attacks is not the way to respond to the emerging scenario. The course is fraught with dangerous consequences. The India-Pakistan dialogue process and ISI-sponsored terrorist violence cannot go together. The ISI’s involvement in the embassy blasts, leading to the killing of 58 persons, including four Indians, cannot be denied by Pakistan after the disclosure of concrete evidence with the US. Washington reportedly has proof of “intercepted communication between Pakistani intelligence officers and the militants who carried out the attack.” That is why a senior CIA official the other day flew down to Islamabad to ask Pakistan to mend its ways. India, too, has gathered proof to nail the Pakistani lie. It is true that the ISI is not under the control of Pakistan’s civilian rulers. And it is not easy to delink it from the all-powerful Pakistan Army. Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who recently tried to bring the ISI under his Interior Ministry, had to withdraw his order under pressure from a powerful pro-fundamentalist section in the Army. US President George W. Bush, who wanted to know from Mr Gilani during the latter’s visit to Washington about who actually ran the ISI, should give a serious thought to the threat from the notorious intelligence agency. The US should straightaway ask its “critical ally in the war on terror” to disband the ISI to save the South Asian region from sliding into an abyss of chaos. No peace effort can bear fruit so long as the ISI remains intact. |
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For every person who wants to teach there are approximately thirty who don’t want to learn -- much.
— W. C. Sellar |
Revival of economy
There is much hype around taking economic reforms forward in the remaining months of the present government. Most people think that the Left was standing in the way of fast reforms during the last few years. First and foremost, for the continuation of economic reforms, they expect disinvestment to pick up steam, and the insurance sector to be further opened up. They expect important banking sector reforms to take place which would give more clout to foreign investors in non-state-owned banks through the removal of the 10 per cent cap on their voting rights. Many are hopeful that at last foreign organised retailing would be permitted and some big names in retailing would set up shop in India soon like Walmart, IKEA and Makro. Pushing reforms is, however, not going to be so simple when the time left before the next general elections is less than a year. There will be many compulsions which would assume precedence and some of the big ticket reforms may have to be postponed. Unlike the past partners (the Left), the current partners’ preferences and priorities are not yet clear. In case there is a consensus on some of the reforms, there would be lesser problems. But tackling the immediate problems of the economy would obviously be the first priority. Thus, controlling inflation would be the main objective before the government as well as the revival of the economy. This has been expressed strongly by the recent Reserve Bank of India’s hiking the repo rate further by 0.5 per cent making interest rates reach a seven-year high of 9 per cent. This is a good move for controlling inflation because the high double digit inflation is giving hard times to all. But it may not give the right signal to many sectors of the economy that are currently experiencing a slowdown. The industrial sector is grappling with high fuel costs and high interest rates. It is facing a slowdown in demand due to high interest rates, and its own capacity building and expansion plans are on hold, considering the high cost of finance. Already, the industrial growth in May has been at a six-year low of 3.8 per cent. Many industries are pruning the staff causing a loss of jobs. The agricultural sector has perpetual problems regarding the lack of access to low cost financing for good seeds and other inputs, water and storage. Lack of proper roads connecting villages to bigger markets, feeder canals for irrigation and financial constraints facing farmers and their inability to move to high value crops, has meant low incomes for farmers in many states. On top of it, there may be insufficient monsoon rain this year. The loan waivers scheme could be a boon for many farmers but whether it reaches the real vulnerable small farmer who is beholden to the money-lender for all farm and non-farm (mainly social) activities remains to be seen. Many experts have pointed out that there is a crisis in agriculture with the continuation of farmers’ suicides. Even though this year the foodgrain harvest has been good, the main problems remain. On the reforms front, there are many bills pending in Parliament. The corporate sector would like to see the Pensions Bill passed by Parliament which would give a statutory status to the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority and open the pension fund management to foreign and private fund managers. There could be more risks but the returns would perhaps improve for the subscribers. The Bill that would make a difference to the millions of workers in the unorganised or informal sector is the Social Security Bill for the unorganised sector workers. The Bill has to be passed in its original, and not diluted, form. It would ensure a comprehensive social safety net for workers in the informal sector in the case of accident, death, sickness and unemployment. It would mean quite a heavy burden on the exchequer, but the benefits would be huge. In any case, the government has already gone for many subsidies that have caused some rethinking among the international rating agencies about the government’s ability to meet its fiscal deficit target. Because of the oil price hike, the government’s subsidy to oil PSUs has gone up and despite the 10 per cent hike in petrol prices, the subsidisation continues because the international price of oil has risen in the meantime. Similarly, there is bound to be a rise in fertiliser subsidy and the impending payout on account of the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations. As a result of the increase in expenditure on subsidies, the fiscal deficit is bound to rise and this would stoke inflation. Fitch, the global rating agency, has already downgraded India’s investment outlook (from stable to negative) and others like Standard and Poor’s could also be thinking of a revision. Many are in favour of disinvesting the government’s stake in some select PSUs and the money could be used to finance the various social sector schemes. Most of the stalled reforms if undertaken can bring back business confidence, important for industrial growth and revival. But the main way to revive industry is to help it in bringing down costs. Higher interest rates may cripple industry and the service sector further. For enhancing international competitiveness, a rise in the cost of finance would be disastrous and China would score again on this account. When global demand itself is shrinking, exporters have to produce at low costs. Even for producers for the domestic market, when facing competition from imported goods, a higher cost of production and higher prices would mean losing the domestic market as well. Imports have been rising during the last few months at a phenomenal rate. Most of the rise during the import bill is due to the high price of oil, but it is also more consumer goods that are being imported. The government will have to think hard about its priorities. Reviving industrial growth is vital for raising GDP growth which is important for creating jobs. It is important for the stock market also as it would attract back the foreign institutional investors. The stock market would also revive with the opening of the insurance sector further to foreign investors — by raising the cap on foreign investment from 26 per cent to 49 per cent. Reviving agriculture is vital for food production, and farmers have to be made secure from the risks of any deficit in the monsoon rain and price volatility. Social and physical infrastructure too needs to be upgraded urgently because to the common person (aam admi) roads, power, water and housing are most important. So also are schools, hospitals and maintenance of law and order. Improvement in all these were promised in the Common Minimum Programme and it is upto the government to try and keep its promises in these areas as well. May be, more glamorous reforms like opening up of the retail sector and big ticket disinvestment will have to wait in view of more urgent reforms that are needed to revive the economy
first.
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Of mentors and tor(mentors)
THIS piece which was written before the sad demise, some days ago, of Sardar Harjit Singh Randhawa, Inspector-General of Police, Punjab (retd), is now meant as a tribute to the memory of a highly respected police officer. A hard taskmaster, not only did he have all that it takes to demand honest, upright and disciplined conduct but also the ability to instil those values in officers who had the good fortune to be trained by him. My close association with him dated back to the time I joined as an IPS probationer at Patiala, for practical police training. I vividly recall the taste of my first date with the stern looking District Superintendent of Police. Turned out formally in “review order”, I had braced myself well for the instructions that the SP would have to list out. However, without much ado, he set about matter-of-factly spelling out the following commandments: No visits to local cinema houses where highly obliged managers would offer free “box” room viewing along with refreshments; no visits to the local Gymkhana Club where the “kakas” of Patiala were likely to entice you with the choicest of drinks and snacks; and, of course, absolutely no visits to the local Government College for Women, for obvious reasons! Commandments over, the SP came down to brass tacks and drew up a rigorous daily work schedule with directions to submit a weekly progress report. Some time later, an enquiry into a land dispute was marked to me as both parties concerned had expressed faith in the honesty and integrity of an IPS officer. Accompanied by my reader I soon left for spot verification and returned to Patiala in the evening only to discover that both parties had placed two whole pieces of fish in the “dalla” (rear) of the jeep as thanksgiving. In a predicament now, I took courage and rang up the SP who promptly advised me to send them to an old seasoned policeman, who was accustomed to such fishy snacks with his evening drink! Soon after, I came in contact with a lecturer at the local Government College for Women, a friend of one of my batchmates from the IAS. She needed advice from an IRS officer based in station, who I knew well. That done, the lady rang up to thank me. The only official telephone then, had a direct connection to the district SP with extensions to the ASP and DSP. As luck would have it, the operator connected her to Mr Harjit Singh instead! What followed was nothing short of a comedy of errors! The eagerness and familiarity with which she chirped her brightest “Hi Surjit!” was enough to set anyone’s imagination racing. As expected, Mr Harjit Singh banged the phone with obvious disgust and ordered that the call be transferred to me. His most sacrosanct commandment had been breached and I was convinced that this would be my Waterloo. Nonetheless, such was the dignity of the man that the incident was neither mentioned nor did it affect his assessment of me. I earned an outstanding report from an officer who I held in the highest esteem and
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Shortsighted on Kashmir The latest battle between Indian and Pakistani soldiers in Kashmir puts paid to Washington’s hope that an end to the dispute over the area could strengthen America’s coalition against global terrorism. The US thinks that Pakistan, which stations 80 per cent of its troops along its contested border with India, could in that happy event move more soldiers to its border with Afghanistan and join forces with Nato in quashing the Taliban. Is this a case of the wish giving birth to the thought? And what can Washington to reduce the tension over Kashmir? Kashmir is an area disputed by two nuclear states and affected by international terrorist networks. The prevention of war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir has been one of the most daunting challenges for the US in South Asia. Washington has been disappointed. Kashmir has sparked three wars between India and Pakistan; it is the reason why both exploded the bomb in 1998 and why Pakistan has made four (unsuccessful) attempts – in 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999 to take over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the Indian part of Kashmir Having failed to achieve that, it has since long trained jihadists to destabilize J&K. Since 9/11 Washington has been aware of Pakistan’s connivance in terrorist attacks on J&K, New Delhi and Mumbai, but its military compact with Pakistan has prevented it from acquiescing in an Indian request to label Pakistan as a state promoting terrorism. America’s attempt at evenhandedness is an irritant in its relations with both India and Pakistan. Since 2001 the US has been concerned about the impact of the dispute in the war against extremism, and would like to see tensions ease between two friendly countries. The US regards Kashmir as disputed territory – which only annoys India. But its stress on bilateral negotiations to end the conflict riles Pakistan, which would prefer international mediation. Why does Kashmir divide India and Pakistan? Kashmir symbolises the ideological schism underlying the 1947 partition of India and Indo-Pakistani animosity to this day: the quarrel over territory reflects their different worldviews and concepts of their respective states. As protagonists of the religious nation-state, seeking to align the nation with Islam, Pakistan’s rulers have never accepted its inclusion in India. For if a Muslim-majority state could survive in secular India what would be the raison d’etre for Pakistan? Indians, on the other hand, see no reason why a Muslim-majority province cannot be included in their secular democratic country: excluding it on religious grounds would negate the ideal of secularism. The independence of Kashmir has never been on the international agenda. Pakistan is as implacably opposed to independence as India. Pakistani talk of self-determination implies that a plebiscite should only be held in J&K, on the assumption that its Kashmiris will choose to become Pakistanis. The idea of a similar plebiscite in the parts of Kashmiri territory occupied by Pakistan in 1948 – which it calls Azad (Free) Kashmir and the Northern Territories – has never been put on the negotiating table. Pakistan’s calls for a plebiscite in J&K have been spurned by India, because talk of self-determination by a country that has been a dictatorship for most of its history only arouses indignation in India, which has been a democracy since independence. Also, UN resolution of 13 August 1948 stated that a plebiscite would be held after Pakistan had withdrawn all its troops from Kashmir. Since Pakistan has never done this India sees no reason why it should agree to a plebiscite. Moreover, there can be no solution to the Kashmir problem without the greater democratisation of Pakistan. ‘Azad’ Kashmir and the Northern Territories cannot be more democratic than the rest of Pakistan. This is why any American talk of ‘normalcy’ in Kashmir jars on Indian nerves. After 9/11, Musharraf allied with the US and provided logistical support for attacks on “Taliban Afghanistan”, and agreed on joint military operations against extremists in its north-western areas bordering Afghanistan. Contrary to Islamabad’s expectations, this help did not earn Pakistan American support against India on Kashmir. Musharraf stated in January 2002 that Pakistan would not allow jihad in the name of Kashmir. But it did not take long for his government to release militant leaders, allow banned extremist organisations to function under new names and move from the Afghan-Pakistani border into Azad Kashmir - from where they tried to destabilise J&K. Pakistan’s military establishment has repeatedly disrupted, or even reversed, attempts by civilian governments to adopt a more moderate approach towards India. Benazir Bhutto’s first government tried to improve relations, establishing confidence-building measures with India. Some take the view that the military, disapproving Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani’s recent attempts to mend fences with India, has instigated the latest cross-border incursion into J&K. A solution would be possible if both New Delhi and Islamabad accepted the Line of Control (LOC) as an international border. This would be in accordance with the 1972 Simla Agreement, signed between Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. For the moment, the chances of America’s anti-terrorist front being strengthened by an early resolution of the Kashmir conflict remain a pipe-dream. All that Washington can do is to continue to facilitate the dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad over Kashmir. The writer is Visiting Professor at the Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution in New Delhi |
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Chatterati We thought our politics had reached its nadir with the dramatic and sleazy events over Manmohan Singh’s trust vote in Parliament. We were proved wrong with BJP leader Sushma Swaraj’s disgusting, harmful and shameful comments that the serial blasts in Bangalore and Ahmedabad had been engineered by the UPA government, so as to discredit the opposition governments in the affected states. In our democracy we have seen many ugly fights between our politicians, but this is a new low. Are terrorism and serial blasts a joke for her? Is human life and national security to be played around with? Swaraj has no choice but to apologise for her immature behaviour. No wonder our younger generation, who is watching leaders make statements like this, hate politicians and politics.
In a soup As if the cash-for-votes taint for the Congress and the Samajwadi party was not enough, the Samajwadi Party has landed into a PETA soup. A case of animal sacrifice carried out by an SP leader has the People for Ethical Treatment of Animals screaming their heads off on the trust motion victory. Killing an animal to celebrate your victory in Parliament hardly seems to adhere to the spirit of the law. The PETA office has been flooded with calls and emails from people who are horrified by reports that SP Madhya Pradesh unit secretary Kishore Samrite sacrificed animals on behalf of the victorious lot, at the Kamakhya temple at Guwahati. Well, hopefully, the leaders of various parties will urge their chamchas to refrain from such cruel acts in the future.
Changing times Is this an indication of changing times? A miniature edition of the Bhagawad Gita has been distributed among many senior government officials. And some secretaries have already begun keeping it on their tables. Well, till sometime ago, they used to keep copies of the Common Minimum Programme (CMP), the RAX directory and the IAS civil list. Now, with the Left withdrawing support and the government winning the vote of confidence, the CMP has vanished. The presence of the Bhagawad Gita on the tables of top bureaucrats seems to indicate that the saffron brigade is returning to power. We know that officials are always ahead of the times, and they know how to keep their bread buttered.
No ‘affairs’ A joke doing the rounds is that the Samajwadi Party does not want any ministries with the tag of “affairs” – such as tribal affairs, minorities affairs etc. They want “happening ministries such as petroleum and power” where huge budgetary funds are available. So, the PMO has prepared a list of six union ministries which can be split into two.
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Who should solve this Internet crisis? The Internet was in crisis. Its electronic “pipes” were clogged with new bandwidth-hogging software. Engineers faced a choice: Allow the Net to succumb to fatal gridlock or find a solution. The year was 1987. About 35,000 people, mainly academics and some government employees, used the Internet. This story, of course, had a happy ending. The loosely knit Internet engineering community rallied to improve an automated data “traffic cop” that prioritised applications and content needing “real time” delivery over those that would not suffer from delay. Their efforts unclogged the Internet and laid the foundation for what has become the greatest deregulatory success story of all time. The Internet has since weathered several such crises. Each time, engineers, academics, software developers, Web infrastructure builders and others have worked together to fix the problems. Over the years, some groups have become more formalized - such as the Internet Society, the Internet Engineering Task Force and the Internet Architecture Board. They have remained largely self-governing, self-funded and nonprofit, with volunteers acting on their own and not on behalf of their employers. No government owns or regulates them. The Internet has flourished because it has operated under the principle that engineers, not politicians or bureaucrats, should solve engineering problems. Today, a new challenge is upon us. Pipes are filling rapidly with “peer-to-peer” (“P2P”) file-sharing applications that crowd out other content and slow speeds for millions. Just as Napster produced an explosion of shared (largely pirated) music files in 1999, today’s P2P applications allow consumers to share movies. P2P providers store movies on users’ home and office computers to avoid building huge “server farms” of giant computers for this bandwidth-intensive data. When consumers download these videos, they call on thousands of computers across the Web to upload each of their small pieces. As a result, some consumers’ “last-mile” connections, especially connections over cable and wireless networks, get clogged. These electronic traffic jams slow the Internet for most consumers, a majority of whom do not use P2P software to watch videos or surf the Web. At peak times, 5 percent of Internet consumers are using 90 percent of the available bandwidth because of the P2P explosion. This flood of data has created a tyranny by a minority. Slower speeds degrade the quality of the service that consumers have paid for. Last summer, a new nongovernmental organization, the P4P Working Group, was formed to find a solution. The group has already field-tested dramatically increased delivery speeds of P2P content over cable networks (up 235 percent) and other networks (up 898 percent in some cases). It is working with industry and consumers to create a “P2P Bill of Rights and Responsibilities.” Such dynamic work is progressing without a government mandate or regulatory framework. Soon, however, that could change. Since the fall, the FCC has been considering allegations filed by public interest groups that cable operator Comcast violated FCC rules by “managing” or “interfering with” the upstream flow of certain P2P video applications, namely those of a company called BitTorrent. Comcast and BitTorrent settled their dispute in March; in fact, they issued a statement saying in part that “these technical issues can be worked out through private business discussions without the need for government intervention.” Despite this settlement, some are calling for the FCC to rule that Comcast’s actions were illegal and should be punished. Others contend that the FCC has no enforceable rules that apply to such situations and that the issue should be addressed through a rule-making proceeding, with an opportunity for public comment, or through congressional legislation. Our Internet economy is the strongest in the world. It got that way not by government fiat but because interested parties worked together toward a common goal. As a worldwide network of networks, the Internet is the ultimate “wiki” environment – one that we all share, build, pay for and shape. Millions endeavor each day to keep it open and free. Since its early days as a government creation, it has migrated away from government regulation. If we choose regulation over collaboration, we will be setting a precedent by thrusting politicians and bureaucrats into engineering decisions. By arrangement with
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