O P I N I O N S

EDITORIALS

Playing with fire
State’s failure leads to violence
INCIDENTS of violence and arson reported from Dabwali in Haryana and Ahmedabad in Gujarat on Friday have a lot in common. In both cases, common people have taken the law into their own hands. Much of the violence could have been prevented if the police had taken timely action. Far from that, reports suggest that the police had turned a blind eye when the people began resorting to violence.

Soft treatment
Direct US-Iran dialogue may end N-crisis
A SLIGHT improvement in US-Iran relations is discernible. A senior US State Department official, Mr William Burns, held direct talks in Geneva on Saturday with an Iranian representative as part of a fresh diplomatic drive to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis. Clearly, the State Department has succeeded over Vice-President Dick Cheney who had been advocating a military solution to the problem for a long time.

Sinking water table
Punjab yet to wake up
THAT Punjab’s water table is fast declining has been emphasised time and again. And yet it has not alarmed the state authorities enough to prepare a rescue plan. Punjab is one of the six states in the country which have not enacted a law to control ground water depletion. They have taken no note of the model Bill circulated by the Centre.

• Thought for the day

ARTICLE

Why nuclear power?
Best alternative to meet future energy needs
by V.S. Arunachalam, Anshu Bharadwaj and L.V. Krishnan
Tamil Nadu Minister for Electricity Arcot N Veeraswam says,“Tamil Nadu is facing an acute shortage of 1000 MW per day and the government has decided to impose a power cut for one hour in Chennai and for two hours in the rest of the state.” Karnataka Power Minister Eshwarappa has warned that his state is “facing a deficit of 1300 MW, which may come down to 300 MW by November.”

OPED

Turkey in turmoil
A military-backed judicial coup in the wings?
by Aliza Marcus and Andrew Apostolou
Turkey’s political crisis has taken a turn for the worse. The chief prosecutor, who has accused the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of anti-secular statements and actions, has presented his argument to the Constitutional Court. The court is expected soon to bar Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from politics and disband his party.

‘A gift for my kids’: hotel clerk writes best-seller
by David Usborne in New York
AS a first-time author William P Young had no illusions about his book. A former hotel night clerk and odd-job man who was raised partly among a stone-age tribe in New Guinea, he had written it mostly as an exercise in self-therapy with little thought of publishing. If his children would read it, he’d be happy.

Chatterati
Mumbai’s gen-next
by Devi Cherian
Maharashtra’s political kids are taking their jobs seriously. The latest to join the other youngsters is senior state Congress leader Narayan Rane’s son Nitesh. He is all set to promote himself in a big way in the state – with his father working in tandem with him covertly, by organising “career guidance” schemes for students and “employment guarantee” rallies for jobless youth in various districts.

EDITORIALS

Playing with fire
State’s failure leads to violence

INCIDENTS of violence and arson reported from Dabwali in Haryana and Ahmedabad in Gujarat on Friday have a lot in common. In both cases, common people have taken the law into their own hands. Much of the violence could have been prevented if the police had taken timely action. Far from that, reports suggest that the police had turned a blind eye when the people began resorting to violence. The commonalities do not end there. The involvement of politics and politicians at both places is obvious. Problems for Dera Sacha Sauda began when it openly favoured the Congress party in the last Punjab Assembly elections. It did have an effect on the results in many constituencies, particularly in the Malwa belt. As if to rub salt into the Akali wounds, the Dera chief allegedly sought to publicise himself in the garb of a guru.

Wherever the Dera chief goes, be it Mumbai or Bangalore, controversy and violence follow him. In the instant case, it is difficult to blame him for what happened in Dabwali but the point that both his followers and those opposed to him show little hesitation in flexing their muscles against each other cannot be overlooked. While it is for the law and order authorities to deal with the Dera chief if he has violated the law, political leaders, particularly of the ruling Akali Dal, have a responsibility to caution their cadres not to provoke or get provoked easily. Also, the Congress government in Haryana and the Akali Dal-BJP government in Punjab have to evolve a common strategy to deal with the Sacha Sauda-Sikh problem.

In Gujarat, Asaram Bapu has a large following. It is for the police to investigate and find out how the two boys died or were killed. Timely investigation would have led the police to the truth and nipped in the bud rumours that the boys were used in some tantric ritual in the ashram as a result of which they were killed. If there is an iota of truth in the rumour, the police is duty bound to take the severest action possible against the culprits, however highly placed they may be. The opposition Congress could have refrained from exploiting the rumours for political advantage and pitting the incensed people against the ashram’s followers. This amounts to playing with fire and the sooner politicians stop the dangerous practice the better it will be for the states concerned.

Soft treatment
Direct US-Iran dialogue may end N-crisis

A SLIGHT improvement in US-Iran relations is discernible. A senior US State Department official, Mr William Burns, held direct talks in Geneva on Saturday with an Iranian representative as part of a fresh diplomatic drive to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis. Clearly, the State Department has succeeded over Vice-President Dick Cheney who had been advocating a military solution to the problem for a long time. Those having an opinion contrary to that of Mr Cheney must have increased their pressure on the White House after the success achieved in handling the North Korean nuclear crisis. In their view, there was no harm in giving diplomacy another chance even if this amounted to accepting the Iranian demand for direct talks between the two parties concerned, without the European Union acting as Washington’s surrogate.

Reports suggest that President George W. Bush is now keen on leaving a positive legacy. That explains the slight change in his approach. He has also decided to set up a US interest section in Teheran, initially to be attached to the Swiss Embassy. This means US diplomats will be posted again in Teheran after a gap of three decades. The US had to close down its Teheran embassy after the hostage crisis in the wake of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Having its own diplomats stationed in Teheran will make it easier for Washington to maintain contacts with the Iranians disillusioned with the performance of the Mahmoud Ahmedinejad government. And there is no dearth of such elements.

Whatever the factors behind the new US approach, it is a development of great relief for the whole world. The use of the military might to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis was bound to have a destabilising effect not only in the West Asian region but elsewhere too. After all, Iran is a major oil producer. Any disruption in oil supplies will push up the prices in India too. In any case, there is no logic in using the armed forces when there is still hope for the nuclear issue to be handled successfully through peaceful means.

Sinking water table
Punjab yet to wake up

THAT Punjab’s water table is fast declining has been emphasised time and again. And yet it has not alarmed the state authorities enough to prepare a rescue plan. Punjab is one of the six states in the country which have not enacted a law to control ground water depletion. They have taken no note of the model Bill circulated by the Centre. Chandigarh and Himachal pradesh have passed the law, while Haryana is working on it. Punjab has a draft water policy ready, and that is it. Efforts, if any, being made to recharge ground water are on paper only.

Excessive paddy cultivation has been the main culprit for the state’s shrinking water resources. The Centre’s policy of giving attractive minimum support prices for paddy has lured farmers to this water-consuming crop. The MSP, based on input costs, however, does not reflect the loss of water caused by paddy sowing. The state and its farmers, over the years, have been net losers. As the water level keeps falling, farmers are forced to install submersible pumps, each costing about Rs 1 lakh. According to the Punjab Agricultural University estimates, at least 30 per cent of the state’s 9.5 lakh conventional pumps have been replaced by submersible pumps.

This year a concerted effort was made to delay paddy sowing to coincide it with the monsoon. PAU will have to work on paddy alternatives, which are equally, if not more, remunerative. Also, a public campaign is required to revive ponds and other water bodies to replenish ground water, which is getting contaminated. Ludhiana’s Budha Nullah is one known contaminator and yet the political leadership, instead of taking corrective steps, has succumbed to pressure from the vested interests. Punjab is also lagging in rainwater harvesting. Haryana has made it mandatory for every building of 300 yards and above to have a water harvesting structure. Punjab is still asleep.

Thought for the day

An honest politician is one who, when he is bought, will stay bought.

— Simon Cameron

ARTICLE

Why nuclear power?
Best alternative to meet future energy needs
by V.S. Arunachalam, Anshu Bharadwaj and L.V. Krishnan

Tamil Nadu Minister for Electricity Arcot N Veeraswam says,“Tamil Nadu is facing an acute shortage of 1000 MW per day and the government has decided to impose a power cut for one hour in Chennai and for two hours in the rest of the state.” Karnataka Power Minister Eshwarappa has warned that his state is “facing a deficit of 1300 MW, which may come down to 300 MW by November.”

These are only a pointer to the things to come. The country is facing an acute energy scarcity, which will only get worse in the coming years with the demands of a growing economy. As the rule of the thumb has it, every 1 per cent of GNP growth would need a 1 per cent addition to electric power generation. The Planning Commission has estimated that India’s electric power generation needs to grow from the present 140,000 MW to 800,000 MW by 2030.

The big question is: where does this energy come from? In the miles of newsprint that have been devoted to the nuclear agreement, the issue of India’s energy challenge always got pushed to the background. The common refrain is, “We have enough thermal, hydro and wind energy, we do not need nuclear power”. It is also argued, “Nuclear power presently contributes merely 3 per cent of electricity. Even if the deal were to go through, its share might go up to 10 - 15 per cent.” So, what’s the big fuss about?

Let us revisit these issues. India’s annual per capita electricity consumption is a measly 600 kWh. This is equivalent to two 100 W electric bulbs burning for 10 hours a day. Compare this with China’s 1,800 kWh, the world average of 2,600 kWh and 15,000 kWh of the US. Leave aside the US and the developed countries; our first priority is to catch up with the world’s average socio-economic indicators. This requires at least two-three decades of sustained economic growth. India’s electricity generation would have to grow to 4500 billion kWh, about eight times the present consumption.

This begs the question, “Where will the energy come from?” Even if India were to exploit all the untapped hydro-potential, a daunting task given that most of the potential is far away in the Northeast, hydroelectricity would not contribute more than 10 per cent to the total generation. Natural gas prospects are promising given the recent finds and also the possibility of the Iran gas pipeline becoming a reality. However, even in the best scenario, natural gas would contribute perhaps 10 per cent, a fact also recognised by the Planning Commission. Wind energy is too intermittent and would contribute only 2- 3 per cent even if all the available wind sites are exploited. Thus, coal, nuclear (and possibly solar) energy will have to supply the balance 75 - 80 per cent electricity.

If coal’s present dominance continues, then coal production will have to increase at least six times to about 2500 million tonnes per annum in two decades. It can be done, but it requires an enormous effort to augment coal mining and transportation. There are also environmental concerns. The Planning Commission estimates that at this rate, India’s total coal reserves are likely to run out in about 45 years. Therefore, it is not clear whether coal alone can fulfil India’s electricity requirement in 2040 and beyond. Moreover, it may also not be advisable since coal is accompanied by a high environmental cost as already being felt in China.

Solar energy is a promising prospect in India. Devoting even 1 per cent of India’s land area will generate about three times India’s present generation. This could be augmented by roof-top and building-integrated solar PV. India needs a major mission-mode solar programme. We are initiating projects in utility scale solar thermal power plants. However, the technology requires time to mature and for costs to reduce.

What can nuclear power do for India? Presently, India’s domestic nuclear power programme is severely constrained by both uranium availability and production. Domestic uranium reserves are just about enough to power 10,000 MW of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) for 40 years. The existing nuclear reactors operated at only 50 per cent average capacity factor last year because of the shortage in uranium mining.

In a study undertaken over the last several months, we estimate that uranium production will have to grow at least four times within the next five years to operate the existing and new reactors at high capacity factors. India’s domestic nuclear power programme critically depends on the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR), for which we need to reprocess the PHWR spent fuel to recover plutonium. The present reprocessing capacity of about 200 tonnes would have to increase 10 times to 2000 tonnes to recover plutonium for deploying a large number of FBRs by 2030.

Even if we do all these on a war-footing, we can have only about 23,000 MW of nuclear power by 2030, about 3 per cent of the total. Thus, in the domestic programme, the share of nuclear power would continue to languish around 3 per cent. India has a large amount of thorium; however, this would have to wait at least for many more decades till the breeder programme has generated a sufficient amount of plutonium to covert thorium into a fuel fit for nuclear reactors.

This scenario changes if India signs the nuclear agreement. India could import uranium to operate the PHWRs at high capacity factors. India can aggressively add to its capacity through the import of Light Water Reactors (LWR). The average annual addition could be about 2000 MW, aggregating to 32,000 MW by 2030. We could also add more PHWRs going beyond the present limit of 10,000 MW. It is the import of LWRs and also fuel for PHWRs that renders this possible, facilitated by the Indo-US agreement.

The capacity addition would be further augmented by fast breeders because of an increase in spent fuel availability. Our study shows that with international cooperation, nuclear power generation capacity could grow to 55,000 - 72,000 MW by 2030 and account for about 10 per cent of the total generation.

Is 10 per cent enough? For one, in the absence of international cooperation, this would be mere 3 per cent. Do we have the luxury of ignoring any energy source when we experience daily power cuts? We can ignore nuclear energy at our own peril. Second, the share would further go up in the decades beyond 2030 as higher breeding reactors get commissioned. The domestic programme would get the opportunity to focus on the higher breeding reactors. Of course, even with the agreement, India will have to develop reprocessing facilities and fuel fabrication, have site selection, manpower training and investments. However, given the country’s energy needs and supply constraints, there may not be a choice.

In a violent world, the question “How many atom bombs and how many hydrogen bombs does India need to defend itself?” is not laughable. But it is a tragic question in developing India. Make no mistake, the privilege of building more and more atom bombs is and will be ever more and more costly. Preserving an empty right to make more bombs and conducting more tests will come at the cost of energy for hospitals, schools and even food.

A child whose access to frozen vaccines is cut off but whose right to atom bomb is preserved may not understand the choice. A politician who advocates against the nuclear cooperation agreement should be able to stand in front of a sick child crying next to his/her hungry mother in a power-starved hospital ward and say, “You are crying, but India is safer because we have said ‘no’ to the United States and the rest of the world, and have built more atom bombs. I feel your crying is less important, yours and the other thousand crying children, than the fact that we now have 200 bombs and tested a number of them already. I am proud of how I have voted on this agreement, my child.”

The writers are associated with the Centre for the Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore.

OPED

Turkey in turmoil
A military-backed judicial coup in the wings?
by Aliza Marcus and Andrew Apostolou

Turkey’s political crisis has taken a turn for the worse. The chief prosecutor, who has accused the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of anti-secular statements and actions, has presented his argument to the Constitutional Court.

The court is expected soon to bar Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from politics and disband his party. The only result this struggle can produce is political instability in an important U.S. ally.

Yet the United States government has been curiously quiet about this assault on Turkey’s democracy. While it once actively promoted Turkey as a democratic "model" for the Muslim world, U.S. officials now hesitate to publicly condemn this legal farce.

The United States refuses to say aloud what many Turks think: that the chief prosecutor is engineering a military-backed judicial coup. If he succeeds, this will be the fifth time in as many decades that the army has pushed out a democratically elected government.

Closure of the pro-Islamic AKP would be a tremendous setback for Turkish liberals, who have supported the party because of its active commitment to economic reform and European Union accession and its plans to lift repressive laws.

It would also undermine U.S. efforts to convince religious Muslims that they can express themselves through the ballot box. The only winners will be Turkey’s military, which is threatened by the AKP’s policies and efforts to liberalize, and former political elites, whose hold on power was weakened because of their own incompetence and corruption.

While the motivations behind the indictment may be transparently political, the barrage of accusations is grave. The AKP’s home-grown critics and Turkey watchers in the United States, seeking to prop up the legal attack, accuse the party of insidiously Islamicizing Turkish society. They claim that Erdogan is secretly trying to establish the framework for an Islamic state.

The charges, however, are more fantasy than fact.

Critics cite the AKP’s move in February to lift the ban on female university students wearing headscarves as proof that Turkish secularism is endangered. They also note that the tax on alcohol has increased since the AKP came to power in November 2002 and that last year alcohol consumption fell 2.5 percent.

Additionally, they cite state statistics showing that the percentage of women in the workforce has dropped. Turkish newspapers are rumored to be lengthening skirt and sleeve lengths before they publish advertisements showing women. More women are said to be covering their hair, in accordance with conservative Islamic principles.

But appearances can be deceptive. If alcohol consumption was a measure of liberty, Russia would be the worlds’ greatest democracy. And Turkish newspapers are not altering photographs of women.

The decline in female workforce participation is real. It should be welcomed. The reason is not Islamicisation but education: Girls are staying in school longer, thus delaying their entry into the labor force.

This process has been underway for at least two decades, meaning it began years before the AKP was voted into office in 2002. In addition, the continued urbanization of Turkey means that women are less likely to work in the fields - unpaid labor that nevertheless counted them as part of the workforce - and more likely to be studying. Female literacy in Turkey increased from 76.9 percent in 1997 to 80.4 percent in 2006, according to state figures.

As for women covering their hair, the accusation that this is more prevalent is simply wrong. The percentage of women who say they do not cover their hair when going outside rose from 27.3 percent in 1999 to 36.5 percent in 2006.

What has increased, according to a 2006 national survey by the Turkish social studies research group TESEV, is the perception that more women are wearing the veil. Sixty-four percent of those polled said that the number of women who cover their hair has grown over the past decade.

Moreover, the ban on headscarves is not intrinsic to Turkey’s secular state. It is 10 years old, a product of the last time the Turkish military essentially overthrew an elected government and sought to put its mark on society.

The true test of a party’s democratic credentials is its willingness to submit to free and fair elections. Prime Minister Erdogan did so twice last year, gaining 47 percent of the vote on a record turnout in the July 2007 parliamentary polls.

By contrast, the AKP’s secular opponents, whose dismal record cost them the past two elections, are reduced to cheering the judicial coup on from the sidelines.

The critics are wrong: It is secularism that is failing the test of democracy in Turkey. The AKP’s brand of Islamism plays by democratic rules. If the United States is serious about promoting democracy in Muslim countries, it should stand up for Turkey’s democratically elected government.

Aliza Marcus is the author of "Blood and Belief: The PKK and the Kurdish Fight for Independence." Andrew Apostolou, a senior program manager at Freedom House, writes frequently on the Middle East.

By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

‘A gift for my kids’: hotel clerk writes best-seller
by David Usborne in New York

AS a first-time author William P Young had no illusions about his book. A former hotel night clerk and odd-job man who was raised partly among a stone-age tribe in New Guinea, he had written it mostly as an exercise in self-therapy with little thought of publishing. If his children would read it, he’d be happy.

They did, but so have a few other people. One year after Mr Young, aided by three friends, took the unlikely step of self-publishing The Shack, it has taken off in astonishing fashion. It has topped America’s best-seller lists with sales just shy of two million.

Now arriving in British bookshops, The Shack did not seem at first especially marketable. At its heart is a father who has lost a daughter, possibly to murder, and his unexpected encounter with God. It is part breezily told yarn and part theological rumination. Among its characters is God Herself. Yes, God may be called “Papa”, but here is an African-American woman.

The greatest mystery of The Shack however is not one of plot. It is how the book took an entire nation by storm, without even the help of Oprah Winfrey. Struggling writers everywhere will either despair or take heart. They should at least take note, however: personal pain sells. And faith sells. Or at least in America they do.

“I am the accidental author,” Young, says. “This was meant as a gift for my children. I really had totally no idea that this was going to happen.”

The writing of the book was also something he needed to do for himself. Young admits his life had been potholed with painful experiences, most especially dealing with memories of sexual abuse as a child in New Guinea where his parents were Christian missionaries. There was a near break-up with his wife, an extra-marital affair and personal bankruptcy a few years ago.

“I am all over the book,” Young says. He is Mack, the main character, as well as Missy, the lost daughter. While Young spent 11 years in therapy, the events of the book take place mostly over one weekend. Mack has retreated to a shack in a remote corner of Oregon where evidence of his child’s murder seems to have been found. It is there that Papa shows up.

What emerged, he says now, was a parable principally about finding a way to look behind the facade that we put up for others to see and confront the truths about who we really are. It sounds cheesy, but clearly the book is speaking loud and clear to a lot of people.

Which is remarkable when you know that Young printed only 15 copies at his local print shop after completing the book. When friends told him it warranted a bigger audience he consulted a writer friend, Wayne Jacobsen, who took him through several rewrites. Then they sent it to some publishers.

Nothing. The professionals told him it had “no niche”. It was too out there for religious publishers – a black woman God! – while mainstream publishers said there was too much Jesus.

But by this time Young felt the book really might be worth something. So he, Jacobsen and two other friends created their own publishing company and called it Windblown Media. It had only one title – The Shack – which came out in a first print run of just 10,000. Within four months they had all sold. In short order, Windblown found itself printing a million copies.

Finally, the industry took notice. Last month, the Hachette Book Group agreed a partnership deal with Windblown in the United States. In Britain, it will be published by Hodder Faith, a unit of Hachette.

Young credits the internet in part for the book’s remarkable success. “It’s really been a grassroots, word-of-mouth kind of thing,” he says. “We had no idea what we were doing.”

But above all, Young thinks readers are responding to a message that God, far from being disappointed with each of us, angry even, remains supportive whatever our failings

“An angry God won’t transform us,” he says. “I really do believe that God is love, one of deep affection and grace and forgiveness and inspiration.”

By arrangement with The Independent

Chatterati
Mumbai’s gen-next
by Devi Cherian

Maharashtra’s political kids are taking their jobs seriously. The latest to join the other youngsters is senior state Congress leader Narayan Rane’s son Nitesh. He is all set to promote himself in a big way in the state – with his father working in tandem with him covertly, by organising “career guidance” schemes for students and “employment guarantee” rallies for jobless youth in various districts.

Nitesh – who is the Mumbai Regional Youth Congress Committee general secretary – has plans to woo younger voters across the state, ahead of the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

Amit Deshmukh, Priya Dutt, Milind Deora, Sameer, Pankaj Bhujabal and Supriya Sule are all already working hard in the state, while networking with netas in the centre.

Acting it out

Andhra’s politicians are somehow bitten by the acting bug. And now the chief minister himself, Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, has put on the greasepaint for comedian Brahmanandam’s upcoming film, which is inspired by Frank Capra’s 1939 Oscar winner ‘Mr Smith Goes to Washington’.

YSR plays his real life role of CM and Brahmanandam acts as a Sugali tribal from north Andhra. The shooting took place at the chief minister’s camp office in Begumpet. This film is being made by YSR’s relative and advisor.

We do have several Telugu cinema actors and personalities, including Chiranjeevi, joining politics. With election fever on, acting will help the C.M. to further his cause among the public.

Taking the cue from the C.M., many ministers have taken to acting. Former minister M. Satyanarayana Rao will act as CM in a movie titled ‘Sathyameva Jayathe’. He says for 40 years he has been acting in politics – now how can he give up an opportunity to act in films and that too as chief minister?

Another actor, Rajasekhar, plays a key role in the film, which is being directed by his wife Jeevitha. The couple intends to align with the Congress soon.

Transport minister Kanna Laxminarayana has also found the big screen irresistible. He will be seen playing the role of Union defence minister in the movie ‘Soldier’, starring Krishna, directed by his wife Vijayanirmala.

TDP leader from Nalgonda, Mothkuri Narasimlu, was seen in the role of a politician in ‘Operation Duryodhana’. Another politician from Telangana V. Prakash was seen in a role in ‘Apadhamokkulavadu’, directed by Posani.

In the past, BJP leader and former Union minister K Vidyasagar Rao starred in the film ‘Collectorgaru’. So, in this state politics and acting go hand in hand.

Seeing stars

Our politicians all are great believers in astrology and have numerous rings on their fingers for us to see. Astrologers also are excited about the planetary position on D-Day: July 22. The star is Sathayam and the zodiac sign Aquarius. Political issues are decided by the sun, politics by Saturn’s position. Both are strong on July 22. This is good for the country, and for the ruling coalition, they say. So most probably the Congress did consult astrologers before settling for this date.