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Runaway inflation Truce on Hogenakkal |
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Death of a journalist
Women in legislatures
Love me, love my dog
Asian rice crisis Unease over military-backed rule in Bangladesh Chatterati
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Runaway inflation NEITHER the union finance minister nor the RBI could foresee that inflation would touch 7 per cent, a three-year high, in such a short time. The 2008-09 budget as well as the RBI’s last monetary policy quarterly review did not target inflation. The RBI can only think of tightening money supply to fight inflation, which is essentially due to supply-side constraints. Now the RBI is being advised to let the rupee appreciate so that the imports cost less. That exports would suffer and more textile jobs would disappear is another matter. At the meeting of the cabinet committee on prices held at the prime minister’s residence the finance minister was reportedly under fire for the price rise. The outcome was import duty cuts, which have, at least, softened edible oil prices. This has been followed up with a little corporate arm-twisting to roll back the cement and steel price hike. There is a stern warning to hoarders and profiteers. Inflation has shot up due to a rise in global commodity prices. There is a demand-supply mismatch along with increased speculative investments in commodity trading. The government has little control over such things. India is not the lone sufferer. Inflation is at 8.7 per cent in China, 11.3 per cent in Pakistan and 12.7 per cent in Russia. The union government’s short-term cures with an eye on elections will not help much. First, the realisation should dawn on the government that the situation on the ground is worse than what the inflation figure reveals. During the last one year the prices of food products have risen by 8.5 per cent, of vegetables by 11.4 per cent and of edible oils by 21 per cent. The focus has to be on raising farm productivity. Let farmers enjoy the benefits of high prices. This will encourage them to produce more commodities in short supply. Increased income would help them clear their debt and meet social commitments. As for feeding the poor, if the PDS leakages cannot be plugged, they can be given direct subsidies like food stamps or cash incentives. The government has to do some out-of-the-box thinking.
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Truce on Hogenakkal TAMIL NADU Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi’s decision to put on hold the implementation of the Hogenakkal drinking water project until the elections in Karnataka are over is thoughtful. His statement on Saturday shows his statesmanship which will help restore normalcy in the two states. During the past few days, the controversy over the project in Tamil Nadu’s Dharmapuri district has triggered violent protests in Karnataka. The movement of inter-state bus services was affected and pro-Kannada groups have been stoning Tamil Nadu buses and attacking theatres showing Tamil films in Bangalore and elsewhere. On Friday, film stars in Chennai and Bangalore have appealed for an end to violence. Karnataka was to observe a bandh on April 10. Mr Karunandihi’s decision is particularly welcome because both states have a bitter past and the series of agitations and bandhs on the Cauvery issue earlier had claimed many lives and property worth several crores. The Cauvery river, which enters Tamil Nadu at Hogenakkal, is the source for the Rs 1,334-crore drinking water project. There should be no problem for Tamil Nadu to go ahead with its proposal because the Union Ministry of Water Resources had cleared it in 1998. It envisages the utilisation of 1.4 thousand million cubic feet of water annually from the Cauvery river for supplying water to Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri districts where the people face acute water crisis, especially during summer. Karnataka, however, says that as the Cauvery river water dispute is yet to be resolved, Tamil Nadu could not build any new projects on it. It does not accept the thesis that it is only a drinking water project and that it has nothing to do with irrigation or power generation. The Centre could act as an arbiter, but the UPA government has been in a fix. On the one hand, the DMK is an important ally. On the other, it cannot antagonise the people of Karnataka where elections are due in May. As water is a sensitive issue, both states should tread with caution and peace should not be disturbed. After the elections, the new government there and Mr Karunanidhi should formulate a coordinated strategy to resolve the problem in a spirit of give and take.
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Death of a journalist THAT journalists in conflict zones frequently fall to the sword is not so much a reflection of the power of the pen, as its vulnerability to violence and intimidation. This is all the more so when state and civil society are either weak or downright inimical. The Northeast has long been a dangerous place for journalists to work, and insurgents have often targeted scribes. Criminal and anti-social elements also flourish in areas where the law’s hold is slippery, and they too have not hesitated to attack the media. The killing of Muslimuddin, correspondent of a leading Assamese daily, appears to be in the latter category. He was writing against the politically well-connected drug and land mafia in the region, and that appears to have drawn their revengeful ire. On earlier occasions, ULFA militants have targeted the region’s newspaper offices and editors. On more than one occasion last year, in the neighbouring state of Manipur, both print and electronic media shut down in protest against intimidation by militant factions. While one faction released a press release, another faction did not want that particular release carried. Militant outfits try to force the publication or non-publication of material they deem fit, and routinely attempt to browbeat or threaten with violence reporters and editors. The South Asian Media Commission recently reported that 2007 was the “bloodiest and most difficult” year for journalists in South Asia, with some two dozen being killed. Worldwide, some 171 journalists were killed in that year. While a third died in conflict zones like Iraq, criminal mafias also account for fatalities, like in Mexico. While some initial arrests have been made in the Muslimuddin case, the police should go all out to ensure that all the perpetrators, and the people masterminding the attack, are brought to book and prosecuted. The media is playing a valuable role in the Northeast, with many courageous journalists operating in difficult conditions. They need the support of the state machinery in handing out deterrent and punitive punishment, so that such acts, at whatever level, are not resorted to with impunity. |
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Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. — Leo Tolstoy
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Women in legislatures
For
the umpteenth time women’s groups agitated for the presentation of the Women’s Reservation Bill (WRB) in Parliament. International Women’s Day saw women lighting lamps at Gandhiji’s Samadhi, proclaiming “the light had not gone out”. Thereafter, the Prime Minister met some women activists and reassured continuing Congress-commitment to the Bill, including a discussion on March 20, to bring it to the post-recess Parliament session. But no developments since! However, massive politically-organised women’s jamborees — the BJP’s early-year, Aiyer’s Panchayati Raj Divas gathering — point to growing political recognition that, like farmers’ lobbies, women’s lobbies need placating for political capitalisation. The BJP has been pro-active calling for The Bill’s re-introduction in Parliament, pledging support (after see-sawing on the Election Commission’s far less satisfactory formula: mandatory 33 per cent electoral ticket share for women.) Well aware of UPA divisions, Opposition leader Advani, during the Rajya Sabha debate on President’s address, tore into the UPA for failing its Common Minimum Programme (CMP) commitment to the WRB’s introduction in Parliament, reminding that it was the CMP’s solitary pledge to women! The Congress, on its part, continues parrying with fulsome lip-service without actually moving a finger, knowing well that hell is bound to again break loose on the floor of the House if it introduces the Bill as earlier drafted while the Left will have nothing else. With the Left’s overpowering influence on women’s movement, women’s groups continue drumming for a beaten corpse and the Prime Minister reassures resuscitation-discussions, knowing full well that the overwhelmingly male Parliament will not voluntarily vacate seats for women even as elections loom. Is, perchance, the Congress calibrating choices on making that early election call, if pushed into the corner, finding the women’s issue a better plank for public sympathy than the elitist nuclear debate? Women’s lobbies may not be a defining force, but they could add to corporate, farmers, and now government ranks wooed with free largesse from the country’s silver! However, if results for women — not politicking — are sought, then the present is a defining opportunity — the moment not to be squandered. Perhaps, a last chance to quickly transform the polity, piggy-backing the delimitation train. Over the years some of us have unsuccessfully canvassed within women’s groups, beginning before the Delimitation Commission’s constitution, pleading that women strategically join the more successful population/democracy lobbies — and subsequently, those for scheduled classes/tribes able to swing the contours of new constituency-delimitation in keeping with their particular interests. Ironically, though reportedly the Prime Minister, the Home Minister and other government leaders informally enquired — and received affirmation of feasibility-given political direction — the government chose not to so politically-mandate the delimitation exercise. Now the commission has completed its exercise and submitted its findings. It is a closed chapter beyond the few states where the court/specific political directives have been given to stay the commission’s notifications. The Bill to further amend the Representation of the People Act in the light of the commission’s recommendations — Representation of the People (Amendment ) Bill 2008 — is tabled in Parliament and is to be taken up for discussion in both Houses in the upcoming session. Constituencies will freeze till 2026 as redrawn and notified by the commission in the Gazette of India, taking effect from such date as the President may order, according to the Delimitation Commission’s interpretation of the Act. But the Bill in Parliament does provide scope for discussions on various constituency-related issues, as constituencies are frozen for two decades. Therefore, this Parliament discussion is a unique occasion. Inter alia, women’s under-representation could be constructively raised to find pathways, even if not within the commission’s mandate. The SC/ST constituencies’ delimitation on the basis of the 2001 census was also not originally mandated but Parliament further amended the Delimitation Bill to authorise the exercise (96th amendment), ironically, on the very day the Women’s Reservation Bill was scuttled in Parliament once again. The mid-way correction has increased 6 SC/ST seats in the Lok Sabha — 55 SC/18 ST seats in the legislatures, within unchanged overall seat numbers. There are three alternative routes to the Bill to increase women’s representation: (i) The Election Commission’s suggestion to make it mandatory for every political party to provide minimum 30 per cent reservation for women in electoral tickets, through simple amendment of the People’s Representation Act. This appears a more politically acceptable formula, but unjust to women: engaging women in an arduous political struggle without ensuring 30 per cent representation-outcome, most optimistically calculated to yield 15-20 per cent representation. Besides, ticket reservation through a simple legal fiat is likely to be challenged as unconstitutional, infringing on male citizens’ fundamental rights to contest. (ii) The constitutional amendment increasing the number of seats in Parliament/legislative assemblies by an agreed 15-30 per cent, fixing a certain criteria, i.e. population, etc. One new suggestion is the creation of extra quota seats to be filled by women-candidates only — from among those losing to winning candidates by lowest margins. It is complex and fanciful, while the creation of extra seats on the demographic basis reopens the North-South family planning performance hornet’s nest. (iii) Constitutional amendment increasing the overall representation numbers by declaring double-member constituencies. Ideal would be that all constituencies are made double-member ones, but workable formulas exist for lower numbers: one-third to half. Doubling is the perfect equitable solution for the 21st century. Size and expense are no longer restraining factors in an information age that has virtually removed the distinctions between physical and virtual participation while the needed finances are small-change compared to the sums allocated on sundry fronts now. If outright doubling of representation-numbers is not acceptable one-half constituencies turned double-member automatically guarantees one-third women’s reservation in overall numbers (544+272= 816; 272/816=one third!) and provides perfect equity- one-half constituencies for open contest between men and women; one-half to one-man and one-woman selection. Moreover, if the selection criteria for double-member constituencies stipulates female population size -i.e. constituencies above national/state average sex-ratio secure one additional woman-representative; it could provide politically astute policy incentive to improve the country’s declining sex ratio, this century’s major demographic challenge. The concept of double-member constituencies enjoys prior constitutional validity and past demonstrable workability experience, pre/post-independence. Leading legal experts endorse it. Available from the Delimitation Commission within the next few months will be meticulously compiled complete computerised records of all redrawn constituencies. These are now equitable in terms of population within each state, given 10 per cent plus/minus; besides population size, male/ female composition in each constituency is known. Political directives setting out criteria by which extra seats/ double-member constituencies are to be created could, therefore, be formulated and executed in a few months, given archival records are being readied to serve the coming 30 years. The Delimitation Commission’s term expires on July 31; its chairman may be demitting office by May after comprehensive records submission. A short extended term could suffice. In any case, the Election Commission has the wherewithal — as demonstrated by its role in states’ reorganisation, with the aid of factual data now available — to demarcate further for women’s representation once political direction is given together with clear-cut criteria for constituency selection. The Prime Minister and the UPA need to lead the country to fulfil, in its 61st year of Independence, the constitutionally decreed obligation to gender parity and affirmative action, challenging other political parties to share the noblest vision. Do not prevaricate with an eye on election politics.n
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Love me, love my dog
Balkar
Singh, the security guard of a former Chief Minister, was intrigued at the very heavy “bandobast” when the gypsy in which he was travelling in company of the ailing dog of his political boss parked at the reception of the veterinary college. A lecturer, who was a qualified vet, was the first to rush to the rear of the gypsy which housed the drowsy labrador. He stroked the neck of the ailing animal and asked the “chowkidars” to carry him to the emergency on a stretcher. He then called the college principal from his mobile set and informed him about the health status of the VVIP visitor. Balkar Singh had to wait while the examination was being conducted. He went to a STD booth outside the university gates and called his native place in Bathinda. He enquired about the health of his ailing father: “Mother, I had asked my officer to call the doctor and ensure help for father at the hospital.” The wailing mother replied from other end of the line: “The doctor said he had not received any call from anyone. He said everyone who came to the hospital professed high connections. Your father’s turn came after more than three hours. He was asked to be admitted to the emergency. There was no place in the emergency so we had to sleep in the corridor.” “Don’t cry mother. I will come very soon,” he said. “Why don’t you come, now?” the mother asked. “I am on a very important assignment. The CM has personally put me on the special job,” he replied. When he returned to the emergency, the securityman was informed that the labrador had been transferred to a “special accommodation”, at the far end of the college. He walked to the spot and was amused to read the title “Guest House” at the entrance. The labrador had a tumour in his abdomen and needed a surgery. The doctor said: “You can carry him home after three days.” Balkar Singh spent the next three days walking around on the college campus. One evening when he returned to his room, he saw a man standing in front of the room which housed the VVIP guest. The room was locked from outside so he was looking around for a chowkidar. “Sir, can I help you?” Balkar asked. “I am a secretary in the medical council of the state. I prefer this room for my stay because this has an AC,” he said. Balkar replied curtly: “The labrador of the Chief Minister is resting inside. He too prefers AC accommodation.” On the fifth night when the dog had not fully recovered, Balkar clasped both his hands and prayed: “God, only death can take away the misery of the ailing dog. Even the college staff, district administration officers and the police think so. I too will be able to celebrate this Dasehra with my family, day after
tomorrow.”
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Asian rice crisis SHANGHAI, China – A spike in the price of rice and other food staples is triggering consumer panic, including food riots in Yemen and Morocco, and hoarding in Hong Kong. Governments around the world have taken radical measures in recent weeks to control their countries’ supplies of rice. Egypt last week said it would ban all rice exports for six months. Cambodia has stopped all private-sector exports of rice, and India and Vietnam also have imposed restrictions. The price of grains – corn, wheat, and rice – has been rising since 2005 under pressure from farmers who would rather plant crops for biofuels than for food, the lack of technological breakthroughs in crop yields, and drought and disease. The sharpest increase has been this year, with the price of Thai rice, a world benchmark, nearly doubling since January, to $760 per metric ton. Some analysts expect that price to reach $1,000 in the next three months. Tang Min, a former chief economist for the Asian Development Bank, said the price increase is the inevitable consequence of supply and demand. “The world population is increasing, but the increase in the planting of rice has not been as fast,” he said. Despite efforts by governments to increase public-sector wages and introduce food subsidies, price increases and shortages have led to violent clashes along supply lines, in food distribution centers and at supermarkets. “Rice shortages and unrest are not necessarily linked, until you think about the poor. Rice is of high importance in these people’s daily lives,” said Tang, deputy secretary general for the China Development Research Foundation, a Beijing-based research group. Nowhere is that more true than in Asia, where a meal isn’t a meal without rice. Wang Qing, an economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, said US laws encouraging the development of biofuels are the origin of the problem in Asia and elsewhere. This “directly led to the reduction of foodstuff planting,” he said. “Without the oil price increasing substantially, the corn price will not increase. Without corn prices increasing quickly, the rice price will not rise.” To encourage farmers to go back to planting food, China, Indonesia and other countries are increasing their minimum compensation to farmers who grow grains for human consumption. But as food-growing countries move to increase production and curb exports, they are under pressure from rice-importing neighbours seeking their help. Bangladesh has announced that it will import 400,000 tons of rice and sell it below cost. The Philippines, where demonstrators have taken to the streets to criticize the government for not doing enough to control inflation, is appealing to other countries for emergency supplies. Cambodian Finance Minister Keat Chhon last week called for people to be calm. He urged them “not to stock up on foods, which could make the situation even harder.” Some experts say that building reserves to protect against future shortages only makes the problem worse. “Of course, if every country, or individual consumer, acts the same way, the hoarding causes a panic and extreme shortage in markets, leading to rapidly rising prices,” said Peter Timmer, a visiting professor at Stanford University’s program on food security and the environment. For example, he said, “the newly elected populist government in Thailand did not want consumer prices for rice to go up, so they started talking about export restrictions from Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter. ... So last Friday, rice prices in Thailand jumped $75 per metric ton. This is the stuff of panics.” “Rice is a political crop, and the goal of most governments is to stabilise the rice price. And in stabilizing the rice price, you result in shifting the fluctuations into the world market,” said Randolph Barker, head of the social sciences division of the International Rice Research Institute, near Manila. The battle against food inflation has been as much psychological as practical. In the Middle Eastern states of Bahrain, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, workers have mounted demonstrations out of frustration that their purchasing power has diminished. In Morocco, state media reported that dozens of people have been sentenced to prison for rioting, and in Yemen at least a dozen people have been killed since late last year in clashes related to food prices. In China, the government is concerned that inflation – which contributed to the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests – is already leading to worrisome incidents. In August 2007, a supermarket in the inland city of Chengdu decreased the price of an egg from more than 4 yuan to 3.2 yuan – about 46 cents – to entice shoppers. Thousands of people showed up at the front door, and four were injured during what the domestic media called “scare buying.” The jump in food prices has had a much bigger effect on developing countries than in developed ones like the United States because food accounts for a much larger percentage of overall consumption. In China, it is almost 30 percent, while in Vietnam it is 40 percent and in India 50 percent. In the United States, it is closer to 7 percent. To calm increasingly concerned Chinese consumers – for whom prices rose 8.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest increase in 12 years – the government froze the prices of some grains, meat and eggs. Premier Wen Jiabao announced this week that China is largely self-sufficient in rice production and has stockpiled 40 to 50 million tons of rice. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post
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Unease over military-backed rule in Bangladesh London – A couple of weeks ago, Fakhruddin Ahmed, chief adviser – or head – of the interim administration in Bangladesh, called on the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. Ostensibly, it was to appeal for assistance from Britain on behalf of Bangladesh and the other 50 least developed countries (LDCs) in the world. But the significance of 10 Downing Street receiving the leader of a military-backed government hasn’t gone unnoticed in diplomatic circles. “The caretaker government (of Ahmed) has the support of the Bangladeshi people,” claimed a spokesman of the British Foreign Office. Normally, postponement of elections, imposition of a state of emergency, detention of leaders of two main political parties, in this case Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League (AL) and Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), and the widespread belief that Ahmed is only a puppet of the armed forces (which he strenuously denies) would have invited condemnation. But London, like New Delhi, is extending cautious co-operation to Ahmed’s regime. Bangladesh instituted a caretaker system in 1991 (to thwart ruling parties from rigging polls) after General Hossain Mohammad Ershad was unseated by people power triggered by Hasina and Zia. Thus, such a dispensation replaced the latter’s government at the expiry of its five-year mandate in October 2006. Ahmed, a former governor of Bangladesh’s central bank, set up fast-track courts to prosecute dozens of high profile political figures; and is attempting to disenfranchise Hasina and Khaleda from politics on the pretext that they are preventing constitutional reforms. To start with, in January 2007, the interim regime used violence between AL and BNP activists as reason to cancel the general election and introduce the emergency. It has now promised elections before the end of this year. Observers are not unwary that the army’s intervention could result in a return of a military-led government, as in the 1970s and 1980s. At the same time, there is belief that the armed forces may be unenthusiastic about an encore, given the tangle Pakistan’s General Pervez Musharraf has ended up in. The current situation in Bangladesh partially mirrors the erstwhile circumstances in Pakistan, when an elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif of the Muslim League, was ousted in a military coup and ejected from his country; while Benazir Bhutto, leader of the People’s Party, threatened with incarceration on corruption charges, also went into exile. Therefore, can the uniformed Bangladeshis accomplish what their Pakistani counterparts failed to achieve? Will they succeed in effectively establishing the charges against Hasina and Zia? It’s also unclear as to what democratic alternative the caretakers have in mind. India’s has experienced an uneasy relationship with Bangladesh ever since the assassination of its founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father, in 1975. Many Bangladeshis are either inimical to India or afraid to identify with it. This uncomfortable state of affairs has been portrayed unsanitised in a diplomat’s diary maintained by India’s High Commissioner to Dhaka in 1989-92, Krishnan Srinivasan, aptly titled The Jamdani Revolution. Srinivasan, thereafter India’s Foreign Secretary and then Deputy Secretary-General of the Commonwealth, is markedly different from some of the retired Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) mandarins that trawl the TV circuit in Delhi. He abhors ceremony and fuss, is, in a silken, Anglo-Saxon manner (he was brought up in Britain and graduated from Oxford) a polished interlocutor (indeed, has even written a humorous book on this subject called Tricks of the Trade). Yet, he’s direct and well informed; and used to be a breath of fresh air in the bureaucratic bottleneck of South Block. His disappointment at the MEA’s inertia over Bangladesh is unsparingly reflected in his book. Ultimately, due to his efforts, bilateral irritants, such as the sharing of river waters, were actually removed – not that this led to a metamorphosis in Bangladesh’s mindset. Srinivasan’s tenure in Bangladesh coincided with the dramatic fall of dictator Ershad in December 1990. While speculation was rife about India’s hand in toppling him, Srinivasan recorded: “On the diplomatic and political front, in truth, we played little part... and that just about sums up India’s role – perhaps not crucial but supportive and opportune.” Ironically, having encouraged a restoration of democracy in Bangladesh before, India now appears to be ambivalent about an unelected authority. It will be a major tour de force if India manages to indoctrinate a military which has invariably been anti-Indian.
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Chatterati Shahrukh’s “Chak de” notwithstanding, India was chucked out in the pre-Olympic trials for hockey. For the first time in 80 years, India, eight time Olympic champions, would not be participating. We won it in a row from 1928 to 1956. In 1960 we lost the finals but wrenched back the gold in 1964 at Tokyo. As usual, slogan shouting MPs and officials joined the chorus for removal of K.P.S. Gill as if he is the only cause for the hockey debacle. Gill, who is at the helm of the Indian Hockey Federation for the last 15 years, in his typical ‘could not care less’ attitude, brushed aside these remarks as specks of dust from his coat. When the signs of decline of our national game were visible initially, these MPs did not raise a hue and cry. The decline was visible much before the take over of the hockey federation by Gill. In 1986, even in the Asian Games, India had failed to make it to the final and could only muster a bronze. In the 1986 World Cup, London, it finished last. From here onwards, India was fighting a losing game. Gill first tried, then became complacent. But he does not deserve all the blame for the hockey debacle, like Sharad Pawar does not deserve all the credit for India’s victories in Australia. The hockey world is desperately starved of spectators and sponsors. The game rules are repeatedly being changed to suit the power play of the Europeans. The entire sports culture has to change. At present the only silver lining is that we have talented players, but they have to be backed by good infrastructure, management, coaching and sponsors. It is here that the big guys like the MPs, only ruing the debacle, can actually help in restoring national hockey to its glorious past. Worries for Cong If the Rajya Sabha elections are a pointer, the Congress has reasons to worry. As leader of the UPA coalition, it loses some of its shine with its strength in the Rajya Sabha getting reduced. However, the overall UPA tally comes down only by four from 88 to 84. This is primarily because the NCP has turned out to be the quiet winner and the RJD’s loss in Bihar has been tempered by Ram Vilas Paswan-led LJP’s gain. The six seats that the Congress lost, mostly because of poor showing in the assembly polls, did not go to the BJP or the NDA coalition. Instead, the NCP turned out to be the dark horse. Its Rajya Sabha tally increased from five to seven seats. The Congress leadership may be busy working out “social engineering” in election-bound states, but news from Uttar Pradesh is far from good. The grapevine has it that five of its Lok Sabha MPs, who had won on their own steam from several UP towns, are in touch with Mayawati. These “non-celebrity” and forward-caste MPs were said to be wary of the Congress’s prospects, and are hence eyeing the BSP as their next destination. It is time for Rahul Baba and Digvijay Singh to pay attention to their tribe, rather than target people all around. |
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