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Victim of emergency Subsidy shock |
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Of names and numbers
Blueprint to end hunger
Heir apparent
The dollar in decline Big is not better in banking Inside Pakistan
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Victim of emergency Ms Benazir Bhutto
is paying for shaking hands with Gen Pervez Musharraf. She is under detention; the General’s emergency raj is showing its fangs. The power-sharing deal is off. Ms Bhutto ought have known that rulers in uniform don’t actually share power with political rivals. Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, believed to be closed to the General, has made it clear that the idea to amend the constitution to allow Ms Bhutto to take over the reins of power for a third time as a part of a future arrangement has been dropped. Ms Bhutto, too, indirectly confirmed the demise of the deal when she declared after being put under house arrest for the third time in Lahore on Tuesday that there was “no” question of her serving under the General “who has suspended the constitution, imposed emergency rule and oppressed the judiciary”. The PPP’s “long march” from Lahore to Islamabad with Ms Bhutto prevented from leading it can be treated as the turning point in the course of politics that began with her arrival in Karachi last month. Even before her homecoming that resulted in the killing of a large number of her supporters by suicide bombers, she had written to General Musharraf that she feared a serious threat to her life from a few powerful people close to him like Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhary Parvez Elahi and the chief of Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau. This led to a lot of heartburning between the leaders of the ruling PML (Q) like Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain and General Musharraf. Since then the General has been under tremendous pressure to abandon the deal that was yet to be fully implemented. Ms Bhutto, too, has been faced with opposition from her party colleagues ever since she began closed-door talks for a deal with the General. As a result of her deal, the PPP was reported to have lost some of its following in various parts of Pakistan. With the General imposing the emergency and depriving the people of their basic rights, it became politically impracticable for her to go ahead with the deal. The development must have disappointed the US, which brokered the deal between the General and Ms Bhutto. Washington ought to have realised that with a direct clash of interests between the General and Ms Bhutto, a rapprochement would not survive for too long. The know-alls in Washington must be shocked at the speed with which the deal they had glued together has fallen apart before it took some shape.
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Subsidy shock FOR sure, the power consumers of Punjab will be happy that they will not have to pay the additional burden of hiked power tariff. After all, who wants to shell out extra money, even if it comes to only 24-paise per unit? The Parkash Singh Badal government has succumbed to the pressure exerted by its BJP partners and has decided to foot the bill. What may have been only an inconvenience for the individual consumer will put a staggering additional load of Rs 292 crore on the government. The move is bad in principle and even worse on financial grounds. There cannot be any free lunches and the consumer just has to pay a reasonable price for the produce. There is also the question of how the government will discharge the responsibility that it has taken upon itself. It has yet to pay a subsidy bill of Rs 930 crore for the past three months. The new burden will only hurt its back all the more. The Finance Minister has been expressing his concern about the state’s financial health in plain language. But Chief Minister Parkash Singh has his own political take on the whole issue. The BJP wants to appease the urban voters believing that the rural constituents of the Akalis are being pampered while the city dwellers are being “ignored”. The fact of the matter is that the so-called discontentment of the power consumers is the figment of the politician’s imagination. After all, 90 per cent of them have already paid the hiked electricity bills. This rural-versus-urban competitive politics is bad for the state’s economy. The consumer today is not looking for subsidised or free power, but assured and abundant supply. If only Mr Badal and his government focus on ensuring that there are no power shutdowns and fluctuations, they will be earning greater goodwill of the people. And if they think that they can convert this goodwill into votes on a future date, well, good luck to them!
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Of names and numbers WHAT’S in a name,” asked the bard. “A lot”, Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa would readily answer. His twenty-month dream of becoming Chief Minister under a 20:20 formula came crashing down when his former boss H.D. Kumaraswamy did not oblige him with a smooth transition. That is when a resident astrologer advised him to change the spelling of his name, if not the name itself. Lo and behold, the grand old man of Karnataka politics, Mr H.D. Deve Gowda, who proved more Machiavellian than Machiavelli condescended to let him have the cake. Whether he can eat it too is a different question. Call it the mysteries of spelling, Mr Yeddyurappa, who was ‘Yediyurappa’ till the other day, will vouchsafe that the change is not to become chief minister but to complete his term and, if possible, return to power after the polls. Why blame him alone, Mr Yeddyurappa is not the only politician to go in for a spelling change. AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa went in for a numerological makeover when she added an extra “a” to her name. Nobody remembers that despite the change, she remains in the doghouse of Tamil Nadu politics. In any case, politicians of all hues have a fetish for such fads. In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the late N.T. Rama Rao got the gate of the State Secretariat changed to make it conform to the exacting standards of vaastu shastra. Alas, within a few days of the costly rectification, he died of exhaustion in his bedroom. Mr Yeddyurappa’s predecessor could not do much to save the dying city of Bangalore except change its name to Bengaluru in the fond hope that it would make him a darling of the Bangaloreans. Of course, he has an alibi. His 20-month tenure ended as quickly as in 20 months. He may now wonder whether it was all because of the old spelling of his name. In fact, the JD (S) leader has more reason to change his name’s spelling than Mr Yeddyurappa. It’s not yet certain whether he can become Deputy Chief Minister given the fratricidal war of attrition in the first family of Karnataka. Anyway, it is time for change in Karnataka. We mean, change of spellings!
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There is a sucker born every minute. — Phineas T. Burnum
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Blueprint to end hunger THE right to food is the right of every person. Every individual must have regular access to sufficient, nutritionally adequate and culturally acceptable food for an active and healthy life. Today, this is a major developmental challenge in India. We cannot feel proud of our achievements in different areas until this basic need of each individual is met. About 21 per cent of the population was undernourished in 1997. In 1999, over 53 per cent of the children under four were found to be malnourished. More than 85 per cent of pregnant women are anaemic. Young children and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to malnutrition. This is in the light of the fact that about 26.1 per cent of the Indian population lives below the poverty line (NSSO Survey, 1999-2000). Although malnutrition for India has fallen from 11.1 per cent in 1991-92 to a remarkable 6.4 per cent in 2000-02, this is due to the increased consumption of milk, animal protein, fruits and vegetables. An estimate of the National Sample Survey Organization shows that per capita consumption of foodgrains (cereals) has declined from 192 to 152 kilograms from 1977 to 1999 in the rural areas and from 147 to 125 kilograms in the urban areas. According to recommendations of National Institute of Nutrition, to achieve a minimum energy requirement of 2738 k calories/ day/ head, a balanced diet containing of at least 460 grams of cereals apart from pulses, vegetables, fruits and milk should be consumed. Accordingly, the per capita requirement of cereals will be around 165.6 kg per head per annum. But the average annual cereal consumption is hovering around 138.75 kg per head, moderately lower than the recommendations. As per the ICMR recommendations, the per capita consumption of fruits should be 120 gm per person per day as against 85 gm consumption today. This is the scenario of the nutritional standards of our population which is a cause for concern for all of us. This concern is compounded when we here about the starvation deaths in some parts of the country. No doubt, the Central government is making concerted efforts to boost the growth rate in agriculture so that the production of foodgrains, vegetables, fruits, dairy products, poultry, fisheries and other agri-products is increased to meet the demands of the surging population and to maintain a sufficient buffer food stock. Still efforts are needed to sustain the growth so that we can withstand the vagaries of inclement weather on which Indian agriculture is heavily dependent. Until farming is made viable it will be virtually impossible to reduce rural poverty and distress. Agricultural production has stagnated during the period from 1998-99 to 2006-07. Total foodgrain production in 2006-07 was marginally higher at 209.2 million tonnes compared to 208.6 million tonnes in 2005-06. The average annual growth in agriculture in the 10th Five-Year Plan was a mere 2.3 per cent against the target of 4 per cent. As more than 60 per cent of our population is directly dependent on agriculture for its livelihood and survival, the occupation of agriculture has to be made productive and profitable. Our farmers are increasingly going in to debt-trap due to crop failures as a result of less rain, disease and pest incidence and other technological constraints. The Planning Commission has decided to give more stress to the agricultural sector in the next Five-Year Plan starting next year to double the growth rate of the farm sector. According to the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, serious efforts are on to revamp the basic agricultural policies based on the recommendations of Prof M.S. Swaminathan and the Mashelekar Committee to bring the agriculture sector to the centre-stage. The commission is bringing a new policy framework by the year-end. The Central Government is trying to raise investment in land development, recharging of ground water, seed replacement and agriculture research to raise the income levels of farmers. In a new deal to the agricultural sector, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced at the 53rd meeting of the National Development Council on May 28, 2007, and corroborated the resolve from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, 2007, that there was a Rs 25,000-crore plan to boost the farm sector growth by addressing the needs at the grassroots level during the next four years. An end to hunger can be achieved by taking different steps by integrating the various ongoing programmes on nutrition and employment and by initiating some new programmes. An exhaustive and periodic survey should be conducted to identify the areas which are prone to less availability and scarcity of food. Areas which are drought prone, tribal and poverty-stricken areas should be brought under greater focus so that contingency and long-term plans can be formulated for such areas. There is need to facilitate the setting up of local-level community food banks, comprising locally growngrains and legumes so that the availability of food articles is ensured in the hour of need. In such food banks, food articles should be loaned as per the need and should be realised after the surplus harvest. We must have food buffer stocks at Gram Panchayat and Gram Sabha levels so that the supply to the needy could be ensured at the right time. Such food buffers should be used for the beneficiaries in the form of part of their wages in different rural employment programmes, including the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. It is time to promote the cultivation and consumption of fruits and vegetables as well as dairy farming. The preservation of fruits, vegetables and other surplus food should be encouraged up to the village level for local consumption to maintain the nutritional security at a sustainable basis. There is need for strengthening the public distribution system to ensure the availability of essential commodities. The basket of the public distribution system should be enlarged to accommodate more items so that it meets all the nutritional requirements of the public. The mid-day meal scheme being implemented in some states should be implemented in every part of the country, in government and even in private schools, to cover the children most likely to be affected by the availability of food and malnutrition. Nutritional security schemes of the government should focus more on the pregnant women, adolescent girls and infants. Promote the setting up of fodder and feed banks since livestock and livelihood are intimately related in most parts of the country and also directly related to the nutritional security of the people in the form of different dairy products. Agriculture and agro-based industry has vast potential for the creation of jobs and this should be strengthened to provide opportunities for the people to earn their daily bread. The concept of self-help groups should be strengthened and universalised because it will not only create work for the needy but also increase the income level of the participants, thus enhancing their purchasing power. The concerted efforts of the Central and state governments will certainly give boost to the agricultural growth in the country and hopefully the fruits of this success will bring out millions of people out of the clutches of hunger and
malnutrition. The writer is a scientist, Directorate of Extension Education, Dr. Y.S.Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni (Solan), Himachal
Pradesh.
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Heir apparent
SOON after I became a reporter with health and family planning and education and social welfare as part of my beat, I covered Dr Karan Singh’s Press conference where he proudly announced that India had become smallpox-free. It was a landmark event and the union health minister was beaming when he spotted me partaking of the rich spread he had laid out for us, journalists. Fresh from college with an apology for a beard, I was the youngest among the lot asking him about the strategy he adopted in ridding the country of the dreaded disease that took away, among countless others, my grandfather. The handsome minister wanted to know my background. When I told him, a little grandiosely, that I covered his ministry, he told me to meet him whenever I wanted any information. What more could a cub reporter ask for? Soon, I met him for a tête-à-tête at his elegant office. In the course of the interview, he told me a story. He was a student of Kashmir University when his father Hari Singh, who signed the Instrument of Accession making Jammu and Kashmir an integral part of India, died. Maharaja Hari Singh was the ex-officio chancellor of the university, a hereditary post. With his death, young Karan Singh automatically became the chancellor of the very university where he studied. He found it embarrassing to continue there and migrated to Delhi University and joined St. Stephen’s College. The anecdote reminded me of a story I heard from my teacher, the late George M. Philip, which I narrated to the minister. Changampuzha Krishna Pillai (1911-1948) was a great romantic poet in Malayalam. He was often compared to P.B. Shelly, both of whom died young leaving behind a large body of poetic works. While Changampuzha flew high on the wings of poesy, penury kept pace with him. At one point he had to seek the help of K.M. Panikkar, foreign minister of Patiala, for a job. The poet lamented “my biggest failure is having a honest heart in this faulty world”. It is a different matter that his reputation as a poet was often shrouded by his reputation as a womaniser. Changampuzha’s Ramanan, a pastoral elegy, became such a hit that Kerala University prescribed it as a text. Thus the poet who was at that time a student of Maharaja’s College, Ernakulam, had to study his own poem. G. Shankara Kurup, the first to win the Jnanpith award, was a faculty member. He would ask the poet to leave the class when he taught Ramanan. How could the teacher explain the poet’s mind when the poet himself was attending the class? Dr Karan Singh was gracious enough to comment that while his becoming the chancellor was an accident of birth, Changampuzha’s achievement was truly remarkable. While the story remained etched in my mind, I did not realise the risks involved in a student becoming a chancellor until my daughter-in-law Reeba narrated an incident that happened to her. She teaches in an engineering college. One day when she had finished her class, a student walked up to her and asked in an authoritative tone, “Madam, I hope everything is all right. Please let me know if you need anything”. Reeba was taken aback by his unsolicited, condescending gesture and all she could do was to give him a stare. Only later did she know that he was indeed the “chairman” of the college. A thoughtful parent like Dr G.S. Dhillon of Dalhousie Public School shifts his only son to faraway Lawrence School, Sanawar, to avoid situations like the one my daughter-in-law
faced.
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The dollar in decline
FOR a quarter-century after World War II, money was based on a loose version of the gold standard. The U.S. dollar was pegged to gold; other currencies were pegged to the dollar; stable prices underpinned the prosperity and soaring trade of the 1950s and 1960s. Then in 1971 Richard Nixon balked at the high interest rates necessary to maintain the dollar’s link to gold. For the rest of the decade, inflation ripped. The cure, starting in 1979, involved two recessions in the United States and the Third World debt crisis. Now we face another potential watershed in the world’s system of money. Since the breaking of the gold link, the dollar has become the world’s primary measure of value, so much so that bank deposits in Uruguay and bribes paid in Russia are mostly denominated in dollars. But the dollar, like the gold standard before it, is under pressure. Last week even Giselle Bundchen, the world’s top supermodel, was reported to be steering clear of greenbacks. Inflation was the cause of the gold standard’s collapse as well as its main consequence. As long as the dollar was convertible, investors could choose between owning one dollar and owning one-35th of an ounce of gold; when inflation eroded the greenback’s purchasing power, gold was the more attractive option. Foreigners traded in their dollars until U.S. gold stocks were close to exhaustion. Higher U.S. interest rates could have lured foreigners back into dollars. But Nixon wouldn’t tolerate high rates the year before an election. Today’s problem is different. The US Federal Reserve Bank has kept a lid on inflation, but the dollar’s vulnerability is caused by debt – the debt of the federal government and of American households. Year after year, foreigners have provided Americans with the savings that they refuse to generate themselves, and this stream of money has supported the U.S. currency. But if foreigners tire of handing over their savings, the unsupported dollar is almost bound to fall. That is what has happened recently. You can hardly blame the foreigners. They sent their money to the United States because they thought the U.S. financial system was transparent and sound; the subprime mortgage mess has forced them to think differently. They sent their money to the United States because the greenback was expected to hold its value, but its purchasing power has fallen sharply against oil, metals and other commodities. Once a currency ceases to act as a store of value, its days as a reserve currency – that is, a currency in which foreigners are happy to hold savings for the long term – may be numbered. As in 1971, the Federal Reserve could do something. It could keep interest rates high enough to entice investors to hold dollars. But as in 1971, this is not an attractive option. The U.S. economy is reeling under the impact of an oil shock, a housing shock and financial turmoil. Forced to choose between upholding the dollar’s role as an international store of value and avoiding domestic recession, the Fed is likely to prioritize recession-avoidance. Nixon’s Treasury secretary, John Connally, told furious Europeans that the dollar was “our currency, but your problem.” The same could be said for today’s dollar trouble, which is why French President Nicolas Sarkozy said plaintively last week that “the dollar cannot remain someone else’s problem.” For the United States, a falling dollar means pricier imports but also an export boom that could carry the U.S. economy through its housing bust. Yet for France and other countries that use the euro, a weak dollar means a loss of competitiveness – not only against U.S. producers but also against dollar-pegging Asian exporters. The falling dollar is a headache for the dollar-peggers, too. Their problem is the mirror image of the European one: Countries such as China and the Arab Gulf states are already experiencing an export boom that is overheating their economies. As a falling dollar drags down their currencies, this overheating gets worse. Meanwhile, they have accumulated vast piles of dollar assets that are now losing value. Saving on America’s behalf turns out to be expensive. So the world faces a dilemma. The last thing it wants is more dollar weakness, which is why central bankers in East Asia and the petro-states, which control most of the world’s official reserves, are not about to dump U.S. bonds and trigger a collapse in the greenback. But the world may also draw the lesson that an alternative global currency needs to be the long-term goal. Households don’t like saving in a currency that won’t hold its value. Companies don’t like building global supply chains based on a unit of account that fluctuates unstably. Most economists assume that the dollar will continue to act as the global currency because there is no alternative. But one of my colleagues at the Council on Foreign Relations, Benn Steil, has proposed another option – a privately created currency that would confer an inflation-proof claim on gold or a basket of commodities. Steil calls his idea “digital gold,” which has a nice back-to-the-future ring. The more the dollar slides, the less Steil’s suggestion sounds like a fantasy from a movie studio. The writer is a fellow for International
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Big is not better in banking IS bigger always better? The merger of various Associate Banks with their principal, the State Bank of India (SBI), is on the anvil. The associates are the State Bank of Patiala, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, SBO Indore, SBO Hyderabad, SBO Saurashtra, SBO Travancore and SBO Mysore. They were originally the banks of the erstwhile princely states and were made subsidiary banks of SBI in 1960. The merger of these Banks is being done not that they are weak in any manner or in trouble, but with the aim of increasing the capital of SBI from an easily available source. Although SBI is the largest Bank in India, it needs yet more strength to compete at the global level. The added dose of capital is all the more needed by SBI in order to fulfill Basel II Committee norms which have recently been revised upward. To make the associates a sacrificial goat to achieve the capital goal does not appear justifiable. And size can render matters unwieldy. The SBI at present has 9000 branches of its own and with the merger of associate banks this number will rise to 13000. A circular issued by the head office takes months to reach the branches down below and much later to the interior country side branches. The reason is poor connectivity. The banks at times brag that so many branches have been computerised and so on but that is not sufficient. Unless total automation of all branches is achieved, the bank will not be able to compete at the global level. And it may take another 10 years for a full core-banking connectivity and thus the control will not be smooth in a bigger sized SBI. The service to the Aam Admi and the much trumpeted “all inclusiveness drive” by the banks will become tardy, the SBI capturing the mass operational area. Another big problem which the ‘merger’ will pose is in the software connectivity model. If the ‘models’ of SBI and the associate banks are from different platforms and different agencies, they will not be compatible to each other. In that case, the software platforms of associate banks shall become redundant and decimated. Each platform costs between Rs 200 to Rs 300 crore. This will cause a loss to the extent of Rs 2000 crore. On the business front, there is going to be a big jerk. After merger, the associate banks will lose their identity. It will break the age old ethnic and regional chord with their customers who may be weaned away to private banks waiting in their wings. The staff of the ‘associates’, who are already up in arms against the ‘merger’, will get demoralised and feel alienated. Their adjustment of seniority, emoluments and other benefits in the new set up is going to be a gigantic problem which further affects adversely the customer service. Besides this, the branches of SBI and associates banks operating in the same locality, the over lapping ones, shall have to be closed. In such cases, apart from shifting of business, the retention of staff at one station will create resentment among them. Above all, there will be an incalculable loss of intangible assets invisible in the reputation and image of the associate banks who are going to meet their corporeal demise. Any bank is free to raise and increase its capital, size and strength and so SBI may do it. However, no visionary will deem it a wise
decision, to do the same by merging its own associates, who are already its strength. The SBI can well go to the stock market and raise capital. Incidentally, the ‘bigger bank’ formula has not been successful in Europe. About 30 years ago, big banking companies were formed by acquiring or amalgamating the small banks, but experiencing management difficulties and other irregularities, they reverted back to small size units. As an alternative to the merger in SBI, there are loud voices from staff unions that a cross merger of associate banks be done. But again, the position of bigger and unmanagemable size will crop up. Associate banks together have 4000 branches, Rs. 2 lakh crore of deposits and Rs. 1.5 lakh crore of advances. They will become the biggest bank only next to SBI. The associate banks have grown tremendously so much so that they surpass even the SBI in certain parameters. Interestingly, the SBO Patiala was declared the strongest bank in Asia. They are now well capable of running the show on their own. The best way therefore, would be that all the associate banks be emancipated from SBI’s hold and made independent banks.
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Inside Pakistan AS if the emergency was not enough to ensure that General Pervez Musharraf’s writ ran in Pakistan without any check on it, his government has amended the Army Act of 1952 to give unbridled powers to the Army to court-martial even civilian offenders. Already, there were provisions in the Act allowing the trial of civilians by an Army court-martial, but only in exceptional cases. However, under the amended Act, “the Army can now try civilians on charges ranging from treason, sedition and attack on army personnel to ‘assaulting the President with the intent to compel or restrain the exercise of any lawful power’ and giving statements conducive to public mischief’, according to The Frontier Post. Strengthening the Army’s stranglehold when the elections are not far away shows that the Army may continue to dominate the dispensation of justice even after the formation of an elected government. This is bound to be resisted by various sections of the people. That is why The Frontier Post and many other dailies have urged the government to withdraw the ordinance that was introduced on Saturday to amend the Army Act. The Daily Times has condemned the controversial amendment more forthrightly. In an editorial the paper says: “...we may expect a proliferation of military courts in the country…This is totally unacceptable. It is a perversion of justice. In our autocratic and intolerant culture, in particular, such military courts will lend themselves to great abuse of civil, human and fundamental rights long after General Musharraf has gone. For every one real extremist or terrorist picked up, the ‘agencies’ will lock up and torture many more innocent civilians.” The crisis in the Swat valley in the NWFP’s Malakkand division, which has taken a toll of a large number of lives, refuses to come to an end. The fighting between Pakistani troops and men of cleric-cum-warlord Fazlullah has subsided because of various reasons, but it may erupt again in the near future. Fazlullah, who wants to implement the Shariat laws in the villages under his control, is unlikely to give up unless the government accepts his demands or he is eliminated by the armed forces. So far, he has been having his way. According to a report in Dawn (Nov10), “a large number of militants had besieged a Frontier Constabulary fort on Thursday night and asked the militiamen to surrender. The security forces surrendered in the morning … Some of the captured soldiers complained that they had been running short of ration and the government had not been sending reinforcements.” Some time ago Fazlullah’s men had forced the government to reach an agreement with him after the militants captured a few more villages and towns than those already under their control. Through an article in The Frontier Post (Nov 10) Adalat Khan asks, “Who are these Mullahs, who created them, and how (have) they emerged in control of the area?” Then he goes on to answer the question: “The origin of most of the extremists can be traced back to the war in Afghanistan against Russia. The American CIA in collaboration with Pakistani intelligence agencies started recruiting civilians, mainly from the Pakhtoon areas of the NWFP and tribal areas, and brainwashed them to fight against the Russians. The same strategy was also used to fight a proxy war in Kashmir.” Students protest When opposition politicians, lawyers, journalists and human rights activists have raised the banner of revolt against the Musharraf regime for the imposition of the emergency and suspension of the constitution, how can students remain unmoved? They, too, are reported to have expressed their resentment against the government in a big way. According to a write-up by Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, carried in The News on November 10, “…there has been a major development on some of Pakistan’s long-dormant university campuses, a development for which the government clearly does not have a contingency plan. Starting with the elite Lahore University of Management Sciences, protests have been organised at Quaid-e-Azam University, Hamdard University and International Islamic University in Islamabad, the Foundation for the Advancement of Science and Technology and Beaconhouse National University in Lahore.” Later, students from institutions like the University of Engineering and Technology and Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute also registered their protest. This has given an interesting turn to the struggle against the emergency regime. The government is reportedly feeling unnerved. After all, it was the mass mobilisation of the student power in 1969 that finally led to the collapse of Ayub Khan’s regime, as Akhtar adds.
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