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The enemy within Blood in Nandigram |
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Peace on track Pakistan must honour its promise INDIA and Pakistan provided a fresh stimulus to their drive for peace by taking a few significant steps during the two-day foreign secretary-level talks that ended in Islamabad on Wednesday, marking a fruitful beginning of the fourth round of the composite dialogue process launched by them. They underlined the need for a liberalised visa regime for which an agreement is being finalised.
Budgeting for defence
Imported vacuum
Saudis working for
peace in West Asia Time to revisit land reforms Delhi Durbar
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The enemy within THE manner in which an armed gang of Naxalites killed over 50 security personnel at a police outpost in Bijapur district of Chhattisgarh on Thursday suggests that the state government has failed to tackle the menace. It is intriguing that the government did not have any clue about the pre-dawn attack. The incident raises questions on the safety and security of the police personnel and the villagers who have also been victims of the Maoist violence. The fact that a large number of Naxalites attacked the outpost, located in a jungle, from all sides and opened indiscriminate firing at the personnel point to the government’s failure to tighten security even though many personnel of the Chhattisgarh Armed Force and Special Police Officers were camping there. The dastardly attack can be viewed as an offensive by the Naxalites designed to protect their base in the state as also to demonstrate their capacity to hit anywhere in their stronghold. The incident is bound to show the Centre and the states in a poor light because the Naxalite menace is not confined to Chhattisgarh but has spread to many states, including Jharkhand, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Very recently, JMM MP Sunil Mahato’s life was snuffed out in Jharkhand. Last week, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil failed to give a convincing reply to Rajya Sabha Chairman Bhairon Singh Shekhawat’s query on the Centre’s failure to provide suitable security to MPs, including Mahato. Clearly, the Centre and the states have not measured up to the task even though reports suggest that the Naxalite-affected Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh taken together witnessed more bomb blasts in 2006 than militancy-hit Jammu and Kashmir. Unfortunately, there is no visible cohesive policy to tackle the crisis. No effort has been made to examine the root causes of the Naxalite problem. It is not a law and order issue alone. It has its social and economic dimensions. If a section of society feels neglected and alienated from the mainstream, efforts should be made to address its concerns through need-based schemes rather than confining the policy framework to providing additional forces and armoured vehicles. Increasing emphasis on development is as important as strengthening intelligence through people’s support and modernising the police force to combat the
Naxalites.
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Blood in Nandigram THIS is the way a policy cookie crumbles when the police unleash a reign of terror, as they did in Nandigram where at least 15 people, including women and children, were claimed in the firing. Along with the people who fell to police bullets, good sense, economics and politics, too, have been blown by the CPM-dictated crackdown on the protestors. Without doubt, it is the CPM, more than the Left Front it leads, that is responsible for the horrific bloodletting in the site of contention that Nandigram has now become. Therefore, it is not surprising that the CPM is under fire from its coalition partners, including some ministers. In the first place, where was the need for a 5000-strong police force to be sent to Nandigram? More outrageous is that this uniformed terror was lent more muscle by the CPM cadres mobilised for the onslaught against the protesting people. The presence of armed police and cadres in such numbers is not administrative enforcement of order or even a deterrent. It looks premeditated, the intimidation being a calculated effort to provoke and escalate unrest as a pretext for unleashing unbridled violence. In spite of the presence of the police and cadres, and the lathi-charging and teargassing, if the protesting people could not be dispersed, the CPM should have understood the force of resistance it was facing and defused the tension by retreating from the scene. They could also have shot in the air and used water cannons. Instead, the police went on a killing spree. For a party that never tires of proclaiming it represents ‘people power’, and had itself been at the receiving end of police brutalities in the 1960s and 1970s, such a response to protest is nothing short of barbaric state-sponsored violence. Hardly surprising then that Governor Gopal Krishna Gandhi has unsparingly condemned the violence and publicly questioned the use of such blood-chilling force. The West Bengal government must be made to answer for this atrocity even as the CBI, on the order of the Calcutta High Court, probes the police violence. |
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Peace on track INDIA and Pakistan provided a fresh stimulus to their drive for peace by taking a few significant steps during the two-day foreign secretary-level talks that ended in Islamabad on Wednesday, marking a fruitful beginning of the fourth round of the composite dialogue process launched by them. They underlined the need for a liberalised visa regime for which an agreement is being finalised. It was also decided to work out a system for humane treatment to the prisoners languishing in jails on both sides of the political divide. Efforts are on to give them consular access. The readiness to operationalise the proposed truck service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad will pave the way for increased trade between the two parts of Kashmir. This can make people develop a greater stake in economic development. Interestingly, Pakistan, which was initially hesitant in promoting people-to-people contacts, has accepted the proposal for a Kargil-Skardu bus service. Besides this, it favours a helicopter service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. This will be an additional mode of travel after the launching of the bus service between the two places. As India has been pointing out, people must be allowed to have greater interaction among themselves so that they realise the advantages of peace. It will be easier to find a solution to the Kashmir imbroglio once terrorism is given a final burial and an atmosphere conducive to peace is created. It is surprising that Pakistan wants the issue of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir to be kept outside the purview of the joint anti-terrorism mechanism. Terrorism cannot be justified, not even by describing it as “a home-grown movement for independence”. This was, obviously, the basic idea why Pakistan gave the commitment in January 2004 not to allow any territory under its control to be used for terrorism. It has yet to honour its pledge. Terrorism continues to pose a serious threat to peace and stability in South Asia. The joint mechanism to fight the menace will lose its meaning if it has nothing to do with the problem in J and K. |
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If I am doing nothing, I like to be doing nothing to some purpose. That is what leisure means. — Alan Bennett
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Budgeting for defence
HITCH and McKean, well-known defence economists, have stated that “there are no magic linkages to the GNP or the total national budget ... military decisions are primarily economic decisions and unless right questions are asked, appropriate alternatives selected for comparison, and an economic criterion used for choosing the most, military power and national security will suffer.” Defence budgets, despite the huge sums involved, get little attention or cause informed discussions in India. In the absence of an official national security and defence policy (other countries have periodic national security reviews or white papers on defence), most parliamentarians and media persons do not know what to ask or say about the budget. A few months ago I called on the new Defence Minister. Modest as ever, he asked me what should be his priority objectives for the armed forces. I mentioned two — modernisation and morale of the troops. These objectives, I said, have to be in the context of India’s resurgent economy in a globalised, diluted unipolar world order. In the new regional security environment, while land, air and oceanic territorial defence would remain our primary concerns, India has also to be a strategic stabiliser without any expansionist designs or character. For the financial year 2007-08, the allocations for defence have gone up to Rs 96,000 crore – a rise of 7.8 per cent from those of last year. Revenue expenditure stands at Rs 54,078 crore, which in turn accounts for 56.33 per cent of the defence expenditure, while the Capital expenditure has been pegged at Rs 41,922 crore, accounting for 43.67 per cent of the total. Under the revenue heads, the Army gets Rs 34086.76 crore, the Navy Rs 6,968.25 crore, and the Air Force Rs 10,193.01 crore. Under the Capital heads, while the Air Force accounts for around 40 per cent of the outlay, the Army gets around 27 per cent, the Navy 24 per cent. The remainder outlay is shared under the heads like “joint staff”, “special projects”, “ordnance factories” and “research and development including strategic weapons”. “Revenue expenditure” includes expenditure on pay and allowances, transportation, purchase of ordnance store, rations, petrol, oil, lubricants and other miscellaneous expenditure for the annual maintenance of each service. “Capital expenditure” includes expenditure on tanks, new artillery guns, other weapons, naval vessels, aircraft, aero-engines, new equipment, machineries, dockyards, construction works and other durable assets. Until the 1990s, India was a classic case of a low GDP and, therefore, low defence expenditure growth. After the economic reforms in the 1990s, India’s GDP grew, on an average, by more than 6 per cent. This allowed approximately 10 per cent annual growth in the defence expenditure. Due to the prolonged neglect in meeting deficiencies and updating defence equipment since the mid-1980s, which got highlighted during the Kargil war, this increase has been considered insufficient by many. Both the Standing Committee on Defence in Parliament and the 11th Finance Commission have recommended that India’s defence budget should be raised from the present 2.2 per cent of the GDP to 3 per cent. The UPA government has often avowed to equip the armed forces for these responsibilities. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has indicated that 3 per cent of the GDP can be devoted to defence when the country is poised to witness further economic growth, Finance Minister Chidambaram is unable to keep these words so far. Like all his predecessors, he has promised that any additional requirements for defence will be met as and when required! This statement sounds hollow. Simply because an efficient fighting machine capable of meeting national security objectives requires well-planned investment and a long gestation period! But merely raising the defence allocation does not meet our requirement unless we have the right focus, mechanisms and the will to spend it optimally. A 10-year trend analysis of allocations would show that the focus now is on the right lines — on quality rather than quantity. The revenue versus capital ratio has witnessed a gradual shift from 75:25 in 1998-99 to 56:44 in 2007-08. The last five years have seen a 250 per cent jump in capital purchases and a mere 25 per cent increase in revenue expenditure. Cumulative assumptions point to a commendable effort to reduce the revenue expenditure and the corresponding emphasis on the hardware aspects of military modernisation. This could improve further, to a 50:50 ratio. The opportunities to spend the amount remain limited primarily because our defence development and industrial complexes are unable to meet the hi-tech, futuristic requirements of the armed forces. These have to be imported from abroad, which invariably involves political suspicions, long negotiations and cumbersome procedures. The mechanism for procurement is improving but slowly. Between 2000 and 2005, about 12 per cent of the budgeted amount, varying between Rs 5,000 and 9,000 crore, remained unspent every year due to tardy procedures, the fear of strictures by the CAG and the CVC, and adverse media reports. Last year again, the revised estimates (RE) figures are lower than the budget estimates (BE) figures due to an unspent amount of Rs 3,000 crore, mostly under the Capital head of the Army. It shows that we have not learnt much from our past experience, leading to a Catch-22 situation. When we have money but cannot spend it is as good as not having the money. Our systems of request for proposal, weapons/equipment evaluation, price negotiations and contracting need further refinement. In November 2006, the Department of Defence (Finance) had organised a major international conference on defence finance and economics. Themes spanning theoretical aspects of defence economics, optimal resource allocation, latest planning, programming and budgeting systems, audit and accountability in defence expenditure and procurement were debated by specialists in this first-of-its-kind seminar. Hopefully, the follow-up measures and new planning and budgetary tools being processed currently will enable us to overcome this perpetual problem. In the coming year, most of the Capital budget is expected to be utilised for “committed liabilities” like Scorpene submarines, Admiral Gorshkov and MiG-29 fighters by the Navy, Hawk AJT and Phalcon AWACS by the Air Force, and artillery medium gun upgradation and procurement by the Army. The Rashtriya Rifles, too, will be able to spend a little more on modernisation. The committed liabilities, however, would not leave much money for net-centric and information war equipment, air defence and other force multipliers. During the last couple of years, the real-term value of the defence expenditure has declined (in terms of constant rupees) due to the rise in inflation and the international prices of military hardware, reported to be in the range of 10-12 per cent. Considering that the modernisation still awaited by the armed forces, the 7.86 per cent increase in the defence budget for 2007-08 is less than satisfactory. The present budgetary trend is incapable of matching India’s security requirements, which necessitate a modern, well-equipped fighting force for the new regional security environment and defence against traditional and non-traditional forms of warfare. While a reasonable hike would have been welcome, rationalisation through prioritised allocations, more efficient utilisation and the much-needed force restructuring remains the need of the hour. The writers are the President and Senior Fellow, respectively, of the Institute for Security Studies, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
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Imported vacuum
It was not the shrill raucous sound of the doorbell, but a light hesitant tap on the door. As an avid reader of whodunits, I could well imagine Sherlock Holmes responding to such gentle tapping by troubled clients at his Baker Street house in London. Gingerly, I opened the door and there he stood, all smiles. In fact, I had been waiting for him. His presence seemed to uplift my status for he considered me worthy of the product he had come to sell. He was the travelling salesman and his ware was vacuum cleaner. In no time, he plugged the machine to show its functions and forestalled whatever doubts I had about its usefulness. He pointed the nozzle upwards and blew air all over to bring down the dust. Then he vacuum cleaned the carpet which the maid had swept a little while ago. Consider our surprise when he emptied an incredible amount of dust, which included a couple of lost hair-pins of my wife. The show continued. He put a piece of damp cloth on the mouthpiece of the hose attached to the machine and passed that all over the curtains. Proudly he displayed the cloth with a round blackened spot of hidden dust. He extolled other unknown virtues of the gadget, like mopping the floor, cleaning window-panes, removing grease and grime from the otherwise inaccessible parts in a car or scooter and even drying hair. I was thrilled and grabbed the machine when the salesman confided in whispers that the particular branded piece he was offering was the last available one with 100 percent imported parts. After that was sold out, the new stock would be totally indigenous and of doubtful quality. No doubt, it was a god-sent opportunity, not to be missed. Without wasting time or bargaining about the price, I wrote out the cheque. I had no plans for such a gadget and I bought just on an impulse. Whether the advent of the vacuum cleaner made the house look cleaner, whether we bade goodbye to the part-time maid or whether the drudgery of manual sweeping and dusting was converted into an exciting pastime with use of vacuum cleaner is another story, but the gadget did vacuum clean my bank account. A good six months later, one of my friends too bought a vacuum cleaner and we exchanged notes. He was in raptures when he told me how lucky he was to be able to get hold of the last imported piece and not the shoddy indigenous stuff which would be available in
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Saudis working for peace in West Asia THE Middle East has seen so many false dawns and failed summits that anyone would be mad to suggest reasons for optimism now. And, indeed, things could hardly look more pessimistic on the ground at the moment. The Israeli government is weak and defensive. The “road map to peace” is all but wrecked on impossible demands on the Hamas-led Palestinian administration. President Bush, for all the talk of a new, more diplomatically-inclined final stretch, remains as absolute as ever in his commitment to the Israeli cause and in no apparent mood to force it to the negotiating table. As for the Palestinians, their prospects have probably never been bleaker. They are without a functioning administration, despite the Mecca agreement on a unity government signed between Hamas and Fatah leaders earlier this month. The violence goes on, so does the squeeze on funds imposed by the West on the Hamas administration. Western leaders may talk of peace, but the poor Palestinians have yet to see a single sighting of it. If there is any reason for hope, it comes from the unlikely source of Saudi Arabia. Unlikely in the sense that the Saudis are usually regarded as a tool of the Americans in their gathering confrontation with Iran, not as an independent playerin the region. And so the more cynical observers still believe of the kingdom as it has launched a flurry of initiatives in the last two months, brokering the Mecca agreement with the Palestinians, pumping funds and political muscle into Lebanon and reviving the comprehensive but moribund peace proposal agreed by the Arab League in 2002 as the basis of the next Arab League meeting due in Riyadh on 28 March. More posturing, cry the critics, from an Arab world that has acclaimed the Palestinian cause in public and done nothing for it in practice, a masquerade from an authoritarian regime far too dependent on the West ever to take an independent stance. Perhaps. But there is reason to believe that this time the Saudis are serious and prepared to put their full financial and political weight behind a regional push that is as much despite Washington as in obedience to it. The kingdom has been badly shaken by the growing force of Shia movements and Iran, as well as Tehran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. That and Iraq’s descent into sectarianism seem to have convinced the regime that it had to act if the region was not to implode with potentially disastrous results on its own security. But instead of seeking a coalition of the Sunni willing, as Washington had hoped, it seems to be trying to bring all the parties together in a regional consensus. Anyone who doubts that should read Prince Turki al-Faisal’s recent speech in Abu Dhabi rejecting all the talk of Shia-Sunni confrontation and promoting instead the idea of Middle East countries determining their own destiny free of outside demands. Hence the Saudi initiative to act as godfather to an agreement between Hamas and Fatah in Mecca, in which Hamas was not required to recognise the Israel’s existence - to the fury of Israel and the irritation of Washington. Hence too the intense round of visits to Syria before the Saudi intervention in Lebanon. And hence too the visit of President Ahmadinejad of Iran to Riyadh a fortnight ago. What the Saudis were seeking from Iran on that occasion seems to have been not so much agreement over the nuclear question than support for the peace plan they will present to the Arab League conference at the end of this month. The plan, which promises general Arab recognition of Israel in return for its withdrawal behind the pre-1967 boundaries and an accord on the refugees’ right of return, was, after all, the original project of King Abdullah when Crown Prince in 2002. If the reports of the Ahmadinejad meeting are to be trusted, Riyadh seems to have got what it wanted from Tehran on the Palestinian question. Even the Israelis are now making encouraging noises about the plan, suggesting it could at least form the basis of discussion. Up to a point. Israeli ministers have made clear their absolute rejection of any right of Palestinian return to within Israel. If Jerusalem has accepted a withdrawal from occupied Gaza, it has been to preserve the ethnic character of this country, not to see it diluted by returnees. It is probably a mistake, too, to read too much into Israel’s cautious welcoming of the plan. Accepting withdrawal in Israel’s eyes means the start of negotiations over exceptions and limits, not a root-and-branch acceptance of pre-1967 frontiers. On the other side, there are plenty who doubt Saudi Arabia’s ultimate sincerity or the ability of the Arabs ever to come together, let alone with the support of Iran. Even if you assume the worst, however, and believe that the Arab League plan will go the way of so many of its predecessors, it is still possible to see in the shifting plates of the Middle East some encouraging momentum. The fact that Saudi Arabia has put its wealth and prestige on the line in brokering a Palestinian unity government and promoting a comprehensive peace plan is important in its own right. For too long the Arab world has let the Middle East drift and allowed Israel and the West to ignore the Palestinian issue. If the world were really challenged by a united and determined Arab front at the end of this month, then the Palestinians might at last have reason to hope.
By arrangement with
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Time to revisit land reforms THE economic history of the present day developed countries suggests that for the transformation of agrarian economies, the pressure of population dependent on agriculture needs to be reduced. This may occur only when people move from agriculture to other sectors of the economy like manufacturing, construction and services. Unfortunately, about 70 per cent of the population in India continues to depend, directly or indirectly, on agriculture for its livelihood. In the highly developed capitalist economies, 2 to 5 per cent of their respective population is engaged in agriculture. The dependence of population on agriculture cannot be reduced just by constructing and issuing borrowed statements like ‘exit’ or ‘safe exit’ for the peasantry. Which category of farmers should be induced to leave agriculture and how? A stale answer to this would be that the marginal and small farmers should be encouraged first to move out of agriculture and join the manufacturing and service sectors. This answer leads to many more questions. First, what kind of skill these sections of the society have acquired that will enable them to become ‘employable’ in industry and services? Second, who will migrate first from the family, given the migration cost and social conditions? Generally, the skilled young and energetic ones move out in search of employment. The dependents (old and children) stay back, leading to distortions in the compositions of the population. Third, what mechanism would be evolved to make-up for the loss in agricultural production caused by the ‘exit’ of productive work force from agriculture having positive marginal productivity? Many more such questions would follow since it appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse”. Only a self-generating agricultural sector can facilitate the transfer of labour force from agriculture to industry and other sectors of the economy. Running away from the problem is no longer a policy opinion. A survey (2004-05) of 140 small and marginal farmer households belonging to eight development blocks of district of Bathinda in Punjab exhibits the plight of poverty ridden households. If we go by the World Bank parameters, those households who earn less than one U.S. dollar, per day, per person, are considered to be living below the poverty line. The estimates based on the survey bring out that in the rural areas of Bathinda District, 86.46 per cent small and marginal farmers live below the poverty line. This average consists of 82.5 per cent of small farmers and 91.66 of marginal farmers. In case we consider the poverty line as 50 per cent of the average State per capita income, as many as 71.42 per cent small and marginal farm households are living in poverty. As many as 65 per cent of these are small farmers and 81.66 per cent are marginal farmers. Juxtaposing this lot of peasantry in the non-green revolution areas, one can very well guess the plight of small peasantry in other agriculturally less developed states of the Indian Union. The findings of the Bathinda survey reveal deterioration in the economic condition of small and marginal farmers since 95 per cent of them are in debt. Another feature of the survey is quite disturbing. The annual consumption expenditure of both the marginal and the small farm households far exceeds their annual income. Since they try to maintain the bare minimum level of consumption, they frequently resort to borrowing money for consumption purposes. Alternatively, they sell a part of their small land holding. Numerous suggestions have been made from various quarters. However, institutional reforms, particularly land reforms do not find any place in the enlisted suggestions. It appears as if land reforms were completed even before the debate on farm-size and productivity relationship came to an end. The policy makers were quick to shelve the reform measures as soon as the food-grains production increased to a desirable level. Writings on farm-size and productivity relationship during the seventies indicated a positive relationship between farm-size and per acre yield in regions where the farmers went in for net strategies. Instead of the “exit” of the small and marginal farmers, initiating afresh the process of land reforms can ensure the exit rather “safe exit” of the large and medium farmers first from the agriculture sector to the manufacturing and service sectors. Being educated, articulated and knowledgeable, they can prove to be better entrepreneurs and successful business partners. For the small and marginal farmers, agriculture is not only a business proposition; it is also a way of life.
The writer is a professor of economics at Punjabi University,
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Delhi Durbar Parliamentary affairs minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi was caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place following the fracas between the Left and DMK members in the Lok Sabha earlier this week over the location of the Maritime University at Chennai. The Marxists, who want the university to be established in Kolkata, charged that the minister from West Bengal had failed to push the interests of his home state when this issue was discussed in the Union Cabinet. The DMK, on the other hand, maintained that the minister had instigated the Left MPs. A red-faced Dasmunsi was busy pleading “not guilty”, saying he was completely in the dark on this matter. Getting it right When industrialist Mukesh Ambani called on BJP president Rajnath Singh earlier this week, it naturally set the Capital’s hyper-active political grapevine buzzing. Industrialists have acquired the reputation of being fairly dependable “forecasters” and Mukesh Ambani’s 45-minute meeting with the BJP chief is said to be indicative of the main opposition party’s bright prospects in next month’s UP polls. Politcal pundits recalled that his brother Anil Ambani, who is closely aligned with the Samajwadi Party, had called on Congress president Sonia Gandhi just a day before the decleration of the last Lok Sabha results which brought the Congress-led UPA to power. Just you wait Although it was generally believed that BJP President Rajnath Singh and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Kalyan Singh had finally patched up, this is clearly not the case. Kalyan Singh has been named the party’s chief ministerial candidate in next month’s assembly polls and was personally persuaded by Rajnath Singh to lead the election campaign, but the former CM continues to be wary of the Thakur leader. When the Hindi media recently ran stories suggesting that Kalyan had sought tickets for candidates with a criminal background, Kalyan hit back saying these reports were being planted by the party headquarters (read Rajnah Singh). The BJP President has not reacted but he is learnt to have told his confidantes that he would settle scores with his bete noire at an appropriate time. PC’s plight Finance Minister P Chidambaram appears to be running out of friends. His budget was slammed by the Opposition and the Left parties in Parliament. Congress members, who have privately expressed their reservations over several budgetary proposals, have not been very forthcoming in defending their minister. Recently, during the question hour in the Rajya Sabha, no member from the treasury benches interrupted CPM leader Brinda Karat when she launched an angry tirade against the finance minister.
Contributed by Satish Mishra, Prashant Sood and Anita Katyal |
One cannot comprehend Ishwara through explanatory discourses nor by intellectuals power nor by listening to sayings in many ways. To him he appears in his full splendour, whom he accepts with love. Only he can reach and realise him. The king should study the mental makeup of the commander of his armies. If he is a man easily swayed by rumours, he must be kept busy so that he has no opportunity to be distracted by
rumours.
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