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Lure of lucre Too hot to handle Politics of violence |
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Financing of education
Beware of dog lovers
DOCUMENT News analysis Chatterati
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Lure of lucre THE arrest of Senior Superintendent of Police, Ganderbal, Hans Raj Parihar and DSP Bahadur Ram for the murder of an innocent person will hopefully lead to the excavation of truth and punishment of all the guilty persons. It has more or less been established that Parihar, who had taken money from a carpenter, for giving him a job, killed him, instead, and saved himself from the bother of not only returning the money but also claiming a reward for the killing of a “terrorist”. The carpenter’s father has already identified the body of his son - Abdul Rahman Paddar-- and this gives a lie to Parihar’s claim that he was a militant, who was shot dead in an encounter and from whom arms were recovered. The police have already exhumed three more bodies of the victims of fake encounters in the Valley. Very soon, the culprits will be brought to book. Investigations have revealed that Parihar and Bahadur Ram belonged to a rogue ring, which would kill innocent people in fake encounters to claim monetary rewards, besides out-of-turn promotions and other facilities. But for the strong public opinion, which expressed itself in the form of mass protests and newspaper reports and articles, these killings would never have been exposed and the racket of the rogues would have merrily continued. The government has done the right thing in having the charges investigated thoroughly. The arrest will help the police identify all the others similarly placed. Nothing should prevent the authorities from arresting those against whom prima facie evidence exists that they had made money by passing off innocent people as terrorists. Ganderbal is not an isolated instance of police barbarity. The investigations by the CBI into the killing of children at Nithari in Noida reveal the extent of links the police had with the accused. The CBI has found that an inspector, who tried to cover up the murder of a girl, Payal, which eventually led to the arrest of Maninder Singh Pandher, had received Rs 3 lakh from the main accused. A Circle Inspector who took Pandher to Ahmedabad for “investigation” was found to have been enjoying his hospitality all through the journey. Now, even the then SSP of Noida R.K.S. Rathore has been found to have some links with Pandher. It is amazing that the lure of lucre is such that the police can say two hoots to all ethics and civilized behaviour. |
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Too hot to handle THE evidence is clear and it has been mounting. Global warming is no mere speculation, al beit scientific, but an actual phenomenon that is fast changing what humans can and cannot do safely on Planet Earth. The latest assessment of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the fourth since its inception in 1988, has a definitive tone that the earlier ones could not manage. Greenhouse gases are increasing, global warming is happening and it is humans who are responsible. Coming as it does on the back of other high-profile assessments like that of World Bank Economist Nicholas Stern, which was commissioned by the British Government, the IPCC’s report should serve to co-opt lingering sceptics and galvanise the world into taking compensatory action. The consequence of not doing so may well be catastrophic. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are increasing, due to burning of fossil fuels and changes in the way we use the earth’s land resources. As these gases clog up the atmosphere, and the ability of land and water ‘sinks’ to absorb the CO2 decreases, the earth gets warmer. This, in turn, triggers other changes like the melting of glaciers and rise in sea levels which will ultimately affect climate patterns. The report has warned that even if we stop polluting the air right now, the accumulated gases will continue to cause deleterious effects “for centuries.” And if pollution rates continue to rise, the 21st century itself will “very likely” see much larger effects. Ever since the Kyoto Protocol, it has been equally clear that the climate change debate is highly politicised. It has been linked to everything from strategic autonomy of countries to the compulsions faced by developing nations in catching up with industrialised economies, who have already done more than their fare share of polluting, and continue to do so. But there is growing awareness that we are in this together, and finding common ground is urgent, though difficult. For example, nations or, for that matter, people are hardly going to agree to cut down on air travel —planes spew tonnes of noxious gases into the upper atmosphere. Various alternative technologies are being explored and mid-21st century, or even earlier, these may well fructify. But the clock is ticking… |
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Politics of violence THE recent clashes in Gorakhpur, the nerve-centre of Purvanchal (eastern UP), leading to the death of a young man, could have passed off as another case of bad law and order had it not involved two different communities. But the incident sparked off communal violence and attacks on government property in different districts in this least developed part of the state because those who took the law into their own hands happened to belong to a Moharram procession and a marriage party of the majority community. The imposition of curfew, transfer of district and police officials and the arrest of a few rowdy elements did help in controlling the situation, but the damage to the communal peace had been done. The communal flare-up in Purvanchal is another major setback to Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s political calculations after the Nithari killings. It threatened to leave a big dent on his Muslim vote-bank. The community’s leaders, who have been accusing him of hobnobbing with “anti-Muslim forces” (read the BJP), blamed the government of not acting swiftly to prevent the goons from spreading terror in Purvanchal. To prove that the talk of his silent understanding with the BJP had nothing to do with the reality, the Chief Minister okayed the arrest of the BJP’s Gorakhpur MP, Yogi Adityanath. This, however, further inflamed the situation, with the Hindu Yuva Vahini indulging in violent protests. There are allegations that the Congress, too, is playing a spoilsport to discredit the Mulayam Singh government in the eyes of the public. BSP leader Mayawati has found an excellent opportunity to mend fences with the Muslims, who had begun to distance themselves from her after she reportedly described them as a “community of fundamentalists”. She has not only accused the state government of having spoiled the observance of Moharram by its “inaction”, but also visited the Allahabad madarsa where a girl student was allegedly raped by elements close to Samajwadi Party MP Atique Ahmed. However, very little is being done to prevent communal polarisation, unavoidable under the circumstances. This may suit some politicians, but cannot be in the interest of the state, which needs peace to promote economic growth. |
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It is part of human nature to hate the man you have hurt.
— Tacitus |
Financing of education
THE Education Commission of 1964-66, popularly known as the Kothari Commission, stressed that egalitarian and development goals in the country can best be achieved through education. It was envisaged that the national system of education would provide education to all students of comparable quality irrespective of caste, creed, location or sex. It was proposed that the government will initiate appropriately funded programmes and take effective measures towards the common school system. The purpose was to integrate the education system with socio-economic transformation and make it a vehicle of economic development. The task looked colossal needing a large quantity of financial resources. In view of the crucial importance of quality and common education, the National Education Policy 1968 emphasised that education will be treated as a crucial area of investment for national development and survival. It fixed the target that 6 per cent of national income be spent on education as early as possible. The “as early as possible” was not achieved till the mid-1980s. The National Policy on Education 1986 published by the Ministry of Human Resource Development, Government of India, declared that “Since the actual level of investment has remained far short of that target, it is important that greater determination be shown now to find funds for the programmes laid down in this policy.” Again a target was fixed that from the Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-97) onwards expenditure on education will uniformly exceed 6 per cent of national income. But no attention in the country was paid in any serious way to find ways and means to finance expansion and ensure common and quality education in the country. Even the Ninth Five Year Plan period was over by 31st March 2002 and spending on education remained close to 3 per cent of national income. Again with the formation of the UPA government in 2004 when the Common Minimum Programme was prepared the magic figure of 6 per cent of national income to be spent on education was fixed as a target. The half of the term of the UPA government has already been completed and the country continues to spend around 3 per cent of the national income on education. After four decades of the commitment, repeated many times later on at the national level, to spend 6 per cent of the national income on education there seems to be no desire on the part of governments to treat education as a crucial area of investment for national development. The experience of advanced countries reveals that even when per capita income is very high, the burden of education cannot be shifted to private sources and parents of students. The education is treated as a merit good as it creates a large number of externalities for society as whole. Contrary to the experience of the developed countries and national commitment, a serious resource crunch has been imposed on public funded institutions in the era of liberalisation. These institutions are not in a position to upgrade the infrastructure and improve the quality of education through proper monitoring of the system. Those institutions which take initiatives to upgrade and modernise, resort to a very high fee which makes education out of the reach of common students. In fact, the lack of resources in public funded institutions and the decline in monitoring and inspection mechanism have led to a decline in the quality of education especially at the school level and promoted a dual schooling system. It is in these institutions that fee and charges are low and reservation policy in admissions and employment is followed. The decline in the quality of education in government schools and aided private schools accompanied by a liberal policy of recognition of unaided private schools by state education boards and the CBSE have resulted in the mushrooming of such schools where high fees are charged on commercial lines. These are the schools where family members of the owners daily visit to supervise the imparting of education. These schools perform better in terms of quality of education and show a high pass percentage in board examinations. Very few students from poor and weaker sections are found in such schools. These have become schools for the children of haves and havenots have no access to them. With the withdrawal of children of rich parents, the government schools and aided private schools have become victims of apathy of governments, especially through political interference in transfers and postings, bureaucratic neglect of the infrastructure and non-performance of non-supervised teachers. It is not surprising that the majority of schools in Punjab do not have regular headmasters and principals. These schools have become schools for the havenots which are characterised by lack of infrastructure, inadequate teachers and lack of teaching material, and show poor quality of teaching and a very low pass percentage in board examinations. It is in these schools that dropout rates are very high. But these are the schools where majority (nearly 75 per cent) of the students get education. As a result, among those who are enrolled at the primary level hardly 7-8 per cent enter higher education. The divide created by commercial schools for the haves and government and aided private schools for the havenots is crudely reflected in the rural urban divide as most of the schools in the former category are located in the urban areas. A recent study (2006) by Punjabi University, Patiala, has brought out that only 4.13 per cent students in the university campuses in Punjab are from the rural areas where 66 per cent of the total population resides. The growing divide in both rural-urban and have-havenots is producing an unbalanced society. This is happening against the declared objectives of the education policy of 1968 and 1986 to have a common school system. At the same time, a large majority of students are forced to seek poor quality of education and dropout quite early. The national target to achieve a 15 per cent enrolment ratio at the higher level by 2015 seems to be a distant dream. The National Knowledge Commission (NKC) has proposed opening up of 1500 universities in the country during the next five years (up to 2012) out of which 50 would be national universities. This would require a provision of massive financial resources. If the country is to take advantage of its young population, the high investment in education is the only option. The recommendations of the NKC must be taken as a wakeup call to make a provision for adequate national resources for education and for the redemption of the national commitment made in this regard four decades
earlier.n The writer is Professor, Department of Economics, Punjabi University, Patiala
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Beware of dog lovers
Disclaimer: Henceforth, I wish to wash my hands off any repercussions if at all this literary creation is published. Animal rights activists please note, I have no intention of hurting any dog’s delicate feelings. No names have been changed to protect anyone’s identity. My husband’s very good friends, Mr and Mrs Jaiswal, are a perfectly normal, well-to-do happy couple. They happen to be excellent hosts who truly believe in making their guests feel at home. They have a lovely picture-book house in a posh locality with a living room straight out of interior decoration magazines. And they have a dog, called Champion. Now Champion is a pedigreed German Shephard whose mere size and demeanour is enough to scare off an average human being. Like most dog lovers, for Mr and Mrs Jaiswal also Champion is a family member. Not only is Champion allowed to be part of social gatherings, but also “speak” his mind on issues. “I hope you don’t mind. He is just a baby you know. Actually he feels very hurt and upset if he is not allowed to interact with guests,” Mrs Jaiswal will explain if you look with imploring eyes, begging her to please send the over-sized baby out of the room. After a weekend out the couple came back home to find to their horror that Champion was not “speaking” to them. The distraught lady told her husband to quickly go out and buy a gift for Champion so that the “poor darling” comes out of his depression and forgives them. It was around New Year’s time and we happened to be their house guests. So Champion was gifted a big ball to bounce around the well-kept house, jump on our luggage and also drag things out of it. We were urged not to stop him, lest he gets upset again. In comparison, Jojo is well mannered. He sits and eats when told to and generally follows all instructions. Recently, we went to pay his “baba” and “ma”, Group Captain and Mrs Banaerjee, a social visit. And our entire three-hour stay at their house on that fateful evening was devoted to listening to “how smart Jojo is”. “Jojo is so smart… He knows all tricks…He can sing, cry and speak….He is so sensitive that he understands me without my uttering a word …..He helps me around the house by putting things in their place, etc etc,” Mrs Banerjee told us. All this while her husband gave us a live demonstration of what all Jojo could do. Thank God for services’ upbringing that had taught us how to grin and bear in most adversities. To give due credit to the lady, she did ask us while we leaving that hopefully we were not too bored. “Actually my son keeps warning us that we behave like proud and indulgent parents as far as Jojo is concerned.” But the clear winner here is Boozo(or whatever his name is). This is what my very good friend Renu told me when I asked her why she decided to bring this huge labrador home: “My daughter wanted a brother. She wanted company but I did not want to go in for the second child. With Boozo, vat least I will not have to attend his parent-teacher meetings”. Clarification: To ensure that friends remain friends, only the names of “papas and mamas” have been changed. Now I only hope that Champion, Jojo and Boozo do not read this
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DOCUMENT It builds upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new findings from the past six years of research. Scientific progress is based upon large amounts of new and more comprehensive data, more sophisticated analyses of data, improvements in understanding of processes and their simulation in models, and more extensive exploration of uncertainty ranges. Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years as determined from ice cores. The annual carbon dioxide concentration growth-rate was larger during the last 10 years, than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements, although there is year-to-year variability in growth rates. The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence7 that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. Since the TAR, progress in understanding how climate is changing in space and in time has been gained through improvements and extensions of numerous datasets and data analyses, broader geographical coverage, better understanding of uncertainties, and a wider variety of measurements. Increasingly comprehensive observations are available for glaciers and snow cover since the 1960s, and for sea level and ice sheets since about the past decade. However, data coverage remains limited in some regions. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The updated 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]°C is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901-2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. The total temperature increase from 1850 - 1899 to 2001 - 2005 is 0.76 [0.57 to 0.95]°C. Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less than 0.006°C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these values. The average atmospheric water vapour content has increased since at least the 1980s over land and ocean as well as in the upper troposphere. The increase is broadly consistent with the extra water vapour that warmer air can hold. Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80 per cent of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. It is likely that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place. The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past fifty years can be explained without external forcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century. There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and of ice. Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. Current global model studies project that the Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass due to increased snowfall. However, net loss of ice mass could occur if dynamical ice discharge dominates the ice sheet mass balance. Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise. The above is excerpted from “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers” of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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News analysis Friday’s impressive showing at the civic polls in Maharashtra has come as a shot in the arm for Uddhav Thackeray, son and heir of Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray. Battling a major crisis of credibility following the defection of Narayan Rane and cousin Raj Thackeray, Uddhav pulled out all stops in a desperate life-or-death battle. Uddhav’s strategy of denying tickets to most of the Sena’s sitting corporators in the Mumbai and Thane civic bodies paid off with handsomely. Many of the victors in the two civic bodies are drawn from among middle-class professionals contesting an election for the first time in their lives. The Thackeray scion is at last making an impact in his attempts to transform the Shiv Sena from a lumpen party to a mainstream political outfit. On the other hand, Thackeray’s foes including Raj and the two Congress parties have come across as bunch of feuding, avaricious mercenaries scrambling to feed on the Shiv Sena’s carrion. The battle for Maharashtra’s civic bodies, particularly the cash-rich Mumbai and Thane Municipal Corporations, saw leaders of both the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party trade abuse and almost push their coalition government in Maharashtra to the brink. Deputy Chief Minister R R Patil of the NCP and Mumbai Regional Committee Chief Gurudas Kamat alone scuttled pre-poll negotiations between the two parties and then feuded publicly driving voters into the arms of the Sena-BJP combine. In contrast to the two Congress parties, the Shiv Sena-BJP quickly forged a pre-poll alliance and brought in Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to campaign alongside Bal Thackeray. The elder Thackeray himself shrugged aside the rigours of age to campaign in Mumbai and Thane. Effectively playing the role of an old man wronged by his own protégés, Bal Thackeray destroyed the hopes of Narayan Rane’s followers. A number of heavyweights fielded by Rane like former Mumbai mayor Hareshwar Patil and Thane councillor Neelam Dolas were defeated by huge margins. Of the 33 Congress candidates fielded by the Rane faction in Mumbai, only five managed to make it at the hustings. The Shiv Sena also stormed back to power in the Tilak Nagar and Chembur areas where Rane usually prevailed with his heavy hand. The other turncoat, Raj Thackeray, fared slightly better. His Maharashtra Navnirman Sena bagged seven seats in the 227 Mumbai municipal corporation and came second in 16 others. With 12 seats in the 108 member Nashik civic body, the MNS dented the Sena’s victory margins in a big way in the pilgrim town. Raj Thackeray’s followers however insist that they would improve their performance in the assembly polls two years from now. The quiet and reticent Uddhav Thackeray insists that the verdict was the popular reaffirmation of faith in his gentlemanly conduct. “I did not retaliate even though they heaped the vilest abuses on me. Instead I chose to work harder,” Uddhav insists. On the other hand Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh who was forced to hit the campaign trail by the party high command will have to answer some tough questions. Congress leaders are questioning his decision not to interfere in the war of words between his deputy and Kamat that occupied front pages of newspapers even on polling day. Kamat who succeeded the charismatic Murli Deora as Mumbai party chief is likely to face tough times as well. Questions have been asked about Kamat’s role in the collapse of the South Indian Co-operative Bank whose depositors form the bulwark of Congress support in areas like Dharavi and Matunga. All eyes are now on Deora who though being Union Minister for Petroleum continues to remain in touch with city politics and is an aspirant for his old job. Friday’s results also showed the futility of the Congress and the NCP to independently build their own bases. Except for Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, Sharad Pawar’s bastions, the NCP has performed worse than the Congress though it damaged the Grand Old Party every where. The elections also threw up a number of new players who could only end up as spoilers in future elections. Arun Gawli’s Akhil Bharatiya Sena bagged two seats in Mumbai, the gangster’s daughter and sister-in-law. The Bahujan Samaj Party opened its account in Mumbai. Elsewhere, Union Railway Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav’s RJD bagged a civic seat. The civic polls also showed the emerging power of the residents’ associations in different parts of urban Maharashtra. Candidates, independents as well as those from mainstream parties, in a number of seats in Mumbai, Thane and other cities won solely on the backing of middle-class residents who banded together to endorse them. |
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Chatterati It was a good opportunity to catch up with various ‘Friends of India’ in the two day International conference on ‘Satyagrah’, organised by the Congress last week. Desmond Tutu, Kenneth Kaunda, Lech Walesa and a host of delegates from various countries had a nice time interacting with each other and the hosts. The BJP was expectedly peeved because of the Congress hogging the limelight and the Left comrades felt uncomfortable when Walesa gave a discourse on the demise of communism in Poland. Then realising the ‘Left’ support to the UPA, he made amends by paying some compliments to the comrades in India. Most speakers spoke on the relevance of Gandhi’s satyagrah in the modern world but some were left wondering about its actual implementation. Bihar’s MLAs and politicians, famous otherwise for other things, walked the ramp for promoting Khadi to commemorate Gandhi’s satyagrah. So, Vasundhara has set the trend and now we hope to see some Chief Ministers following the trend. What about good governance? Why not have a fashion show for that too?
Business as usual Indian expats in Britain went berserk celebrating Shilpa’s victory in “Big Brother”. In India even small towns celebrated. The show was not even seen in India, but such was the media hype on Shilpa being abused racially that the show ratings soared and the producers were smiling all the way to the bank. Even Shilpa denied being racially scorned and her family now plans to welcome Jane Goody, her tormentor, when she comes on her penance pilgrimage to India. They are likely to become good friends too. After all, it is because of Jane that Shilpa has got so much fame and publicity. But all is well that ends well. Chicken curry rules and Shilpa is richer by a couple of crores. Even Bollywood is planning to give her some real roles now. What about racism in the West? Oh! That will continue as usual.
Mama mia Sometimes, it pays to take an unsolicited SMS seriously. Like the one which started doing the rounds among journos. “Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s mother is likely to be present at the Italian Cultural Institute in the evening for the visit of the Italian Deputy Prime Minister, Francesco Rutelli.” Not surprisingly, a phalanx of press photographs and TV cameramen descended on the Italian Cultural Institute. “Mrs Maino!” arrived setting off a stampede, with the lensmen falling over each other to get what promised to be the first shots of the elusive woman. She arrived in a non-descript Ambassador accompanied by a friend who held her tightly by the arm. Her friend made feeble attempts to deflect the photographers and television cameramen by trying to block Maino’s impassive face from the cameras with the help of her light blue stole. |
You will surely be tested in your possessions and your selves. And you will surely hear many insults from those to whom the book was given before you, and from those who idolise things. But if you are patient and conscientious, then that is the resolve which will determine affairs. — The Koran Work is the path to salvation. And work is the path of downfall too. Our motives of working determine what we make of it. So the wise person thinks carefully and tries to keep his motives pure and unsullied by base desires. —The Bhagvad Gita The Brahmin's duty is to look after the sanitation of the soul, the bhangi's that of the body of society. —Mahatma Gandhi |
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The Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes progress in understanding of the human and natural drivers of climate change, observed climate change, climate processes and attribution, and estimates of projected future climate change.