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Bomb kills 10 in Philippines
Window on Pakistan News Analysis |
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Blair airdashes to Iraq
Basra, January 4 Mr Blair arrived on a special military cargo plane from Egypt where he was on holiday. Journalists were flown in secret from London to Egypt to accompany him. It was Mr Blair’s second visit to Iraq since British forces fought alongside US troops to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. His first visit in May was in part overshadowed by media reports back home that accused Mr Blair’s government of hyping intelligence about banned Iraqi intelligence to justify the case for war. British troops patrol southern Iraq near the second city Basra, after leading the assault on the area in the first days of the war last March. The area, populated mainly by majority Shi’ite Muslims, has seen less violence than mainly Sunni Muslim areas north of Baghdad where occupying US forces frequently come under attack.
— Reuters |
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Bomb kills 10 in Philippines Parang, Philippines, January 4 “The Mayor apparently lost his teeth,’’ Ando said. Filipinos are due to vote in national, regional and local elections on May 10. Campaigns in one of Asia’s most turbulent democracies are marred by violence, intimidation and cheating, with dozens of candidates and voters killed in past elections. “It felt like an earthquake,’’ a resident told local radio. The bomb, hidden on a motor cycle outside the sports hall, went off after 3,000 persons listened to a speech by the Mayor.
— Reuters |
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Window on Pakistan Finally Gen Pervez Musharraf after 14 months of haggling has got parliamentary approval to be Pakistan’s President till the end of 2007. This approval by the National Assembly and the four state legislatures cobbled up with the help of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), and his own ruling group, will remain a point of fierce clash in Pakistan’s chequered political history. The alliance of democratic Opposition, lead by exiled leaders Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, has decried it as unconstitutional and illegitimate. Interestingly, as in the past Islamic parties helped a military dictator gain parliamentary approval of whatever orders he issued since his takeover in October, 1999, and then the much-disputed election in 2002 through a trumped-up referendum. What he conceded was that he would lay down his office as army chief by December this year. But then he has powers to hand-pick prime ministers, and also to dismiss parliament and state legislatures. In other words he will continue to call the shots and be the de jure and de facto boss of Pakistan. The law on defections had to be amended to finally get just 56 per cent votes. The legitimacy for General Musharraf’s presidentship was not in accordance with the constitution, and its validity was based on the 2002 referendum, which itself was flawed. Opposition parties had majority to defeat any motion, but defections were encouraged and this made the job easy for General Musharraf. So much for this khaki democracy as the Pakistani media hates to call it. Dawn, the popular newspaper, chided the whole exercise as a farce. It wrote: “The supremacy of the Constitution and the legislature has to be asserted and protected. Institutions are more important than individuals, but unfortunately in the past half-a-century, the trend has been for presidents and prime ministers to try to reinforce their own positions - at the cost of institutions, which have been weakened in all areas of public life.” Dawn also advised: “In trying to rehabilitate our frayed system, the president will have to overcome his inclination to keep the rest of the opposition ostracized. Past experience shows that concessions to the religious right have proved counter-productive. Successive governments and leaders have created a psychosis of intolerance and bigotry, and there can be no magic wand that would change this outlook.” “It can only be done by building the widest possible national consensus. The president will require the help of all representative political parties in trying to move Pakistan closer to what he describes as a ‘moderate’ Islamic state, and he should bend his energies to securing the largest possible measure of cooperation in this endeavour.” Ayaz Amir in Dawn, was, however, more straight. He wrote: “On the domestic front, as if to prove Pakistan’s inability to learn anything from its troubled past, another parliament and another set of politicos have endorsed the consequences of another coup d’etat. This move is being hailed as a step towards democracy. If Pakistan’s past is any guide, it is no such thing, merely more trouble laid up for the future.” Amir also wrote: “Pakistan has not been made stronger by the parliamentary endorsement given to Musharraf’s rule. Its polity remains as fragile as ever. All our history teaches us that a civilian not a military dispensation is the best guardian of what we choose to call the national interest.” Nation, another leading newspaper from the Jang group, was equally critical when it wrote: “Despite the opposition split, and differences in politics are never permanent. The MMA still insists on maintaining its identity as an opposition force. It is perceived as His Majesty’s loyal opposition despite its declared reservations on some of the government’s major foreign policy positions and domestic agenda. "The government cannot hope to rule with peace unless it gives due consideration to these realities. It would be do well to give full freedom to the opposition. General Musharraf’s decision to change into a civilian President within a stipulated period should reflect itself in both the way he handles the government affairs and treats the Parliament.” Frahan Bukhari, another columnist writing in News of the Jang group predicted: “The future of Pakistani politics is bound to be dictated by status quo, vested interests and continuous opportunities for a reminder of the future not being radically different from the past. "Just a week after the latest assassination attempt on General Musharraf, which should indeed be widely condemned, Pakistan’s insecurity challenges have additionally come to haunt the country’s emerging outlook. With or without the consolidation of powers around General Musharraf, his position may remain surrounded by controversy beginning with the conduct of last year’s presidential referendum to the shenanigans surrounding the elections and creation of a cobbled together government. |
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News Analysis PAKISTANI President Pervez Musharraf’s reported deal with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) on the legal framework order (LFO) controversy and his “decision” to step down from the crucial post of the Army Chief has raised the crucial question: “Who would succeed Gen Musharraf on this powerful top job in the army?” A flurry of significant developments have taken place in Pakistan in the past few weeks. These include the December 14 assassination attempt on Gen Musharraf, the December 19 interview of Gen Musharraf to Reuters regarding not sticking with the plebiscite route on Kashmir, the December 20 changes within the Army, the December 24 deal on the LFO issue with the MMA and the two successive attempts on Gen Musharraf’s life. What these developments would portend for the SAARC summit would be clear in the next few days. However, for the long term, the impact that Gen Musharraf’s decision to step down by December 2004 as the Army Chief and speculations on whose shoulders the mantle of the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) of the Pakistani Army would fall just in case a future attempt were to be successful are questions occupying centrestage. The essential qualification for any COAS of the Pakistani Army is that he must have commanded a corps. Interestingly, Gen Musharraf has so much juggled around with the Lieut-Generals of the Pakistan Army that many of them would be contenders for the top slot. The crucial issue would be of timing — whether Gen Musharraf steps down voluntarily, and if so when, or whether he does so involuntarily, and if so when. The two Generals in contention for the top slot — Gen Yusuf Khan, VCOAS, and Gen Aziz Khan, Chairman, JCSC, would both retire as per tenure rules in October 2004. Interestingly, were age to be a criterion, Gen Yusuf Khan would retire in February 2008 and Gen Aziz Khan in January 2007. In the run-up to the legal framework order (LFO) deal, October 2004 was frequently mentioned as date for Gen Musharraf to step down which could be indicative of his wanting to do so only after the two Generals had retired. Traditionally, the Corps Commander of two Strike Corps, that is the I Corps at Mangla and the II Corps at Multan have been regarded as occupying crucial posts. However, in the changed circumstances that Pakistan finds itself in, the Corps Commanders of the 10 Corps Rawalpindi and the 11 Corps Peshawar have started coming into the limelight. The recent appointment of Lieut-Gen Ashfaq Pervaz Kiani to the 10 Corps has thus raised speculations about his possible elevation to the top spot, though he is relatively junior to the others. The Corps Commander of the 11 Corps is due to retire shortly and thus would not be a factor. Lieut-Gen Shahid Aziz, who was till recently holding the crucial post of the Chief of General Staff and is now the Corps Commander of the Lahore Corps, could be another frontrunner if Gen Musharraf steps down only in the later part of 2004. Regardless of which of the current Generals succeed Gen Musharraf, it is highly unlikely that there would be any major change to the discipline with which loyalty is transferred to the successor. Though the present regime might have a vested interest in projecting the likelihood of an Islamist gaining ground if Gen Musharraf is forced out, a fairly dependable assessment is that most of the senior leadership of the Pakistan Army is broadly in agreement with the policies adopted by Gen Musharraf. Gen Musharraf has continued to follow the long-standing traditions of the Pakistan Army Chief consulting the Corps Commanders virtually on all important issues. As of now, it appears that the chain of command would hold, irrespective of how Gen Musharraf is replaced or when. |
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