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Friday,
April 4, 2003, Chandigarh, India  
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Timely SARS alert Supercomputing success |
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The allied race to Baghdad
Life beyond cricket
New fiscal year begins with clouded outlook
Religion helps teens cope with hardships
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Austerity, Punjab style! A
two-fold increase in one’s salary is quite a dream even in the corporate sector. But even dreams tend to get outstretched if one happens to be in politics. Punjab’s ministers and MLAs have just granted themselves not a two-fold but a six-fold hike in salaries, allowances and loan entitlements. Interestingly, even the Opposition members who normally haul the government over coals for its profligacy do not have much to say against this bounty from the heavens. Perhaps, it is the legislators’ way to tell the world that the state is not quite as poor as it is made out to be. There may be a severe resource crunch for development works, but at least the leaders can be taken good care of by public money. Whether it is petrol, diesel or airfare payments, the Speaker, the Deputy Speaker, ministers as well as MLAs will all get a much better deal. If past experience is any indication, there will be a domino effect in the neighbouring states as well, with the elected representatives clamouring for a similar hike. After all, what is six or seven crore of rupees to keep a few select people in comfort who have devoted their life to the service of the nation? One hopes the men and women with the fatter salaries will now spare some time for the jobs for which they have been elected. Actually, it is not the salary hike which is the central issue. It is the overall scenario of reckless spending which is the major sticking point. When ministers cannot make do with mere cars but require luxury vehicles, when their telephone bills run into lakhs of rupees, and the Chief Ministers’ helicopter bills come to crores, there is something seriously wrong somewhere. The extravagance is not confined to any one state. On the contrary, there will be only one or two states in the whole country where the lavishness is not a norm. The irony of it all is that even those leaders who come to power avowedly to fight money power become big spenders themselves. What Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav, Ms Jayalalithaa or Ms Mayawati have been doing is no different from what the maharajas of yore, whom they condemned in the severest possible words, did. The leaders are encouraged to continue with this devil-may-care attitude because the public refuses to be scandalised by this ugly extravagance and open loot of the public exchequer. As far as the vigilance by the government agencies is concerned, it is well proved by now that their net is strong enough to catch small fish only, not whales and sharks. |
| Timely SARS alert India does not have an enviable record in health-related crisis management. Decades ago when the deadly Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) virus sent alarm bells ringing across the globe India was among the few countries that did not feel the need to take preventive measures. The country now has a very high number of AIDS patients. And the number is growing. The ignorance associated with the ailment is preventing even trained health professionals from doing what they ought to do for managing the scourge. There have been instances of doctors refusing to go near the AIDS patient for fear of contracting the disease by merely touching the victim! The sceptics must have, therefore, rubbed their eyes in disbelief when a nationwide alert was sounded for dealing with suspected cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
(SARS). Union Territory Administrator J. F. R. Jacob took personal interest in preparing Chandigarh for dealing with suspected cases of
SARS. At the national level three hospitals, including the prestigious All-India Institute of Medical Sciences, have put together the necessary professional inputs for treating patients with symptoms of SARS that has claimed at least 75 lives and infected over 2,000 people in 22 countries. Mercifully India is not one of them. The health authorities deserve a round of applause for putting the nation on alert in spite of no case of SARS having been reported from anywhere in the country. A stitch in time does save nine. Hopefully India should be able to weather the global health-related crisis without hiccups. Medical teams have been put on duty at all international entry points. By way of abundant precaution, travel to and from China, Hong Kong and other South-East Asian countries should be suspended until the World Health Organisation and other international agencies are able to isolate the virus and offer an effective cure for the strange ailment. Sudden onset of fever and respiratory symptoms, including cough, shortness of breath or difficulty in breathing, offer little clue to medical professionals in treating patients. SARS patients do not respond to the treatment prescribed for pneumonia. The symptoms of acute viral fever and SARS too are almost identical. A WHO team of five experts is currently in China, believed to be the source of the mystery ailment. They have come to the conclusion that the cases of pneumonia that occurred in southern China in November, 2002, and the cases of SARS that began appearing in other Asian countries on February 26 and have since spread to several cities throughout the world are identical. Indian medical professionals should be directed to constantly monitor the WHO website for the latest update on SARS and how to treat it. A team of global experts is working round-the-clock to bust the virus. Putting the nation on high alert by itself is not going to prevent the pneumonia-like ailment from entering India. |
Supercomputing success Indian ingenuity has done it again. We have now joined the select club of four nations the US, Japan, Israel and China that possess terascale super-computing systems. We have reason to be proud of the latest achievement of the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
(C-DAC) on two counts — it has given us a supercomputer that scores on both performance and price. At one trillion floating operation point per second (FLOP) memory, this is the fastest supercomputer produced by
C-DAC and that too at half the cost of other supercomputers. This has been made possible by advances in parallel processing (which is the simultaneous use of more than one computer to solve a problem) that Indian scientists wisely selected when
C-DAC was born in 1988, following the US refusal to sell a Cray supercomputer to India.
C-DAC first produced Param 8000 and has been constantly improving the performance of its computers. The latest machine is 1,000 times more powerful than the first one. The Union Minister of Information Technology, Mr Arun Shourie, is quite right when he says, “If you deny it to us, we will do it ourselves,” and our scientists deserve a pat on the back. The commercial aspect of the supercomputer is also demonstrable, and
C-DAC has a good track record in this too. As many as seven Param 10000 supercomputers with 100 giga FLOP memory have been sold, four to Russia and one each to Germany, Canada and Singapore. Mr Shourie has also touched upon its potential defence applications. While this is probably the first time that the defence applications of such computers have been mentioned by a ministerial-rank person publicly, there has been no doubt among informed circles that such computers can be used for a wide range of services, including defence, atomic modelling and even genome research. It was the potential of the latter that was highlighted at the inauguration of the Param Padma in Bangalore. As of now over 40 leading academic institutions and research and development centres are using various Param computers to work in fields as diverse as bio-informatics,
nano-technologies, atmospheric and oceanic modelling for weather forecasting, and fluid dynamics for space applications. Now, the scientists have given the nation a better tool, with multiple applications. Only true multitasking will help in realising the untapped potential of the information technology revolution that India and Indians are definitely a part of. |
The allied race to Baghdad In the wake of the success in the Kargil war, Defence Minister George Fernandes and some of our senior commanders had declared that future wars would be limited in space and duration and that they had gained “grasp over a limited war”. It was in response to such faulty assumptions that we put out a lead article, “Assumptions go awry — dynamics of a limited war,” (The Tribune, Jan 29, 2000) and noted in these columns that “It may be possible, to an extent, to impose a vision of war on a less prepared opponent. But war belongs to the domain of uncertainty and unpredictability and is full of surprises. It can pick up momentum and direction not originally intended.” Predictably, the war in Iraq has not progressed on the lines intended by the coalition forces. The course of a war can seldom be chartered with accuracy or certainty. It rarely moves in line with the plans of the attacker, or that of the defender, but takes an altogether different course. One which would be the outcome of the clash of the two opposing plans. In the continuing offensive against Iraq no major battle has taken place so far, but there is some apprehension about the anticipated duration and difficulty, though not the outcome of the ongoing conflict. A few minor actions at Umm Qasr, Basra, Safwan, Nasiriyah, etc, appear to convey that all has not gone well with the offensive plans. The coalition forces were to race to Baghdad and deal with the very nerve centre of the Saddam regime. Obviously in the perception of the planning staff at the Pentagon, Iraq’s centre of gravity lies in Baghdad and in the person of Mr Saddam Hussein. Tilting one and eliminating the other would topple the “evil empire”. In the planning of these operations there appears to have been a number of faulty assumptions and intelligence inputs, the detailed planning at the Pentagon and diligence of the American intelligence apparatus notwithstanding. The tactics of “shock and awe” propounded by Harlan Pullman, which meant subjecting key targets in Baghdad to the relentless onslaught of precision munitions (delivered through missiles and aircraft) at an unprecedented scale, have not produced the expected results so far. That the long suffering Shia population would revolt and welcome the coalition forces proved otherwise. That there would be no threat to the long lines of communication to Baghdad, and consequently their securing was not essential, turned out to be incorrect. The anticipated desertion of Iraqi troops and palace coup too proved fallacious. Finally, the hope that Turkey would eventually agree to allow coalition forces to mount an offensive through its territory did not come true. The plan appears to have been to launch attacks both from the North, through Turkey and from the South through Kuwait. Secure oil wells to prevent these from being torched. Open the port of Umm-Qasr for relief operations and for logistics support to the offensive. Race to Baghdad, bypassing opposition en route and deal with the hard core elements of the Iraqi forces as they move forward to delay the advance and/or deploy to defend the town of Baghdad. All this to be preceded by the continued application of tactics of “shock and awe” by relentless delivery of precision munitions and missiles and air attacks. The plan went awry at the very outset due to Turkey’s intransigence whereby the offensive from the north could not materialise. The initial massive missile onslaught on Baghdad failed to kill Mr Hussain and/or paralyse the command and control structure of the Iraqi army. Nevertheless, given the initial incorrect premises, the plan was as good as it could be and the operations so far have been reasonably successful and, to use the Pentagon’s phraseology, “on schedule”; six-day-long duststorm notwithstanding. The less advertised aspect of war, that is, the securing of over a thousand oil wells both in the south and in the north and thus preventing their being torched, has been a remarkable achievement as also the early opening of the seaport for relief operations. With nearly half a million men in uniform, a large fleet of tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles and 2400 major artillery pieces, Iraq’s armed forces present a formidable spectacle. While some of these weapons and personnel have been dispersed in urban areas to form pockets of resistance, the bulk of these would perhaps be deployed to defend Baghdad. All of such a large force with its vast array of weapons cannot be located inside the built-up areas of the town and, therefore, will perforce have to deploy the concentric circles in the open, around the town. Once Baghdad is fully invested, during the coming few days and the full weight of attackers’ firepower focused on the defenders, the ability of the Iraqi troops to continue the fight will be seriously debilitated. As the population in Baghdad and other cities gets to feel the imminence of the fall of the regime, the expected revolt could take place and Iraq’s inner core of command and control implode. Till then the presence of troops loyal to Mr Saddam Hussein and terror groups will continue to cast a pall of fear on the populace and scare them from coming out in the open. This is understandable in view of their earlier experience, when the coalition forces left them at the mercy of Hussain’s execution squads in retaliation for their revolt in 1991 to support the invading forces. Certain commentators have concluded that the American army is unwilling to take casualties and that is the reason for the slow progress in clearing pockets of resistance on the way to Baghdad. On the other hand, it has been cited, with considerable pride, that the Indian Army sacrificed 271 men in just one week to take Jaffna in Sri Lanka, had 522 dead and 3000 wounded to take Kargil heights and finally lost 141 men in Operation Bluestar, all without a demur. What needs to be realised is that it is not so much the US army which is reluctant to take casualties, but the American nation itself is not prepared to loose its men wantonly. The United States has come to place great value on the lives of its people and the media raises near-hell at any instance of avoidable loss of life. In India, life has come to have little value. Neither the Press nor the members of Parliament thought it fit to thoroughly grill the government on the loss of lives in Sri Lanka and why we opted for suicidal frontal attacks at Kargil. If Pakistan could breach the LoC at such a massive scale, surely India could cross it at a few places (to eventually get back into the Indian side of the LoC) and save the lives of its soldiers. Consider the severity with which the American media has been grilling the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defence Secretary at every perceived setback. The imbedding of journalists with the units in Iraq is intended to ensure their safety so that they do not carelessly roam around the battle zone in search of stories and get killed and/or captured. Already, at least five of them, moving around on their own, have lost their lives. It was perhaps assumed that wide and detailed coverage of the war would draw on the national sympathy and support. While these imbedded journalists are crowding the television screens with minor clashes and actions at lower levels, they have successfully confused the average American viewer about the developments. Such large-scale induction of journalists with the fighting troops is proving counter-productive. Predictably, their cell phones have been taken away by the units they are “imbedded” in as they are compromising security and causing unwanted distraction. War is always a messy and chaotic business, and constantly watching even minor military action tends to blur the larger picture. Even trained minds often find it difficult to make sense out of the confusion and chaos of the battle. That is what senior commanders have to keep in mind and that is why they should not allow themselves to be influenced by local actions. Their visits to the front are often to share the risks of the battle with the troops and to get a “feel of the battle” and nothing more than that. In the words of Daniel Benjamin, a former member of the National Security Council on Terrorism and now with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, “We are in uncharted territory.” Everything had been predicated on rapid success and minimum civilian casualties. Obviously, that must now give way to increasing the force levels, securing the supply lines and concentrating full combat power against Baghdad. Greater devastation, civilian casualties and an increasing loss of American lives will have to be accepted. The cost of war, in all related spheres, is bound to go up exponentially. Finally, as the war drags on, worldwide protests against it will pick up increasing momentum. It can lead to big and bloody protests in the Arab world. Governments in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and some other Muslim countries may criticise the US but more to satisfy their own people than anything else. There is also the danger of the war against terrorism in Afghanistan and the attempts to prevail on Pakistan to stop cross-border terrorism against India being derailed.
— The writer is a former Deputy Chief of Army Staff. |
Life beyond cricket My mobile beeped. A message was received. Visual display read, “Good mourning, sir, I am availing leave for a day. Will stay at home.” It was my junior who, I later learnt, had gone into mourning as soon as he came to know of India’s humiliating drubbing by Australia in the World Cup final. But let’s go back to March 1. The Indian team beat Pakistan and sent them marching out of the World Cup. Jubilation reigned supreme. Overnight celebrations erupted across the country. A spontaneous spectacle of crackers lit the night sky. Forgotten in a jiffy was Mohd Kaif’s home being vandalised, Sourav’s effigy being burnt and a mock funeral being enacted by the mourners just a few weeks ago. My colleagues too was quick to come out of his mourning mode and greeted me effusively with “good morning, sir.” Today cricket and Kargil have a lot in common. They unite and unify India, trigger patriotic fervour, breaking all barriers. Both build up mass hysteria. Cricket has come a long way since the days when this charming game of elegance, style and wits was played by gentlemen with a languid, redolent style reminiscent of a rich but fading aristocracy. It was believed that cricket civilised people and created good gentlemen. Robert Mugabe wanted everyone to play cricket in Zimbabwe so that his could be a nation of gentlemen.
Touché! Sportsmanship is passe. Form remains but the spirit is missing. Aggression and killer instinct have come to characterise the cricket. It is no more a win or lose proposition. It’s win or perish. Everybody likes a good loser provided it is the other team. It is rightly said that the manner in which a man wins life’s battles shows something of his character. The manner in which he loses shows all. Be it Bollywood or cricket, stars are worshipped or whacked alike depending on whether they succeed or fail to provide their fans illusory escape from their dull and drab existence. Bouquets and brickbats, condolence and celebration, love and hate, alternate. A hero today, a zero tomorrow, and vice versa. But then everyone is playing cricket. Jaswant Singh went out to bat on the budget day and bowled over the audience. The opposition found the pitch so queered that it refused to play ball. Occasionally it cried no ball. Poor common man has always been fielding the balls played by the powers that be. Yes, at the hustings, sometimes, he bowls them out. Be it as it may, our national identity and honour ought to extend beyond the boundaries of a cricket ground. Let life go beyond cricket.
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New fiscal year begins with clouded outlook The fiscal year that began on April 1, 2003, does not hold out prospects of an economic recovery relatively faster than the one witnessed in the closing quarter of 2002-03, which saw GDP growth slump to 4.4 per cent as estimated by the Central Statistical Organisation. The Union Budget for 2003-04 had a cautious welcome for it had not addressed upfront some basic issues for self-sustaining growth, such as agriculture and employment. It has given slender hope of stimulating the economy in the second year of the Tenth Five Year Plan to levels of performance, which would take it nearer the Plan target of 8 per cent per annum. Even without the Iraq war, the economy hardly looked capable of overcoming the stagnation of the last two to three years. The government no doubt proudly points to the food stocks, the record foreign exchange reserves, now around $ 73 billion, and low inflation. But what has been missing is an effective operational strategy to harness these advantages for higher growth. When a budget only increases borrowings and thereby the fiscal deficits, with little success in reducing revenue deficits, and without a significant step-up in public investment to create demand and energise private investments, it does not promote long-term sustainable growth of the economy. The Finance Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh, has had to withdraw the hike in fertiliser prices at a cost to the exchequer of Rs 700 crore. A few other modifications are in the offing when the Finance bill is taken up in the Lok Sabha. His exercise had focused on relief to middle classes. In the process, some distortion in economic priorities became inevitable. Whether his incentives and new levies would all help to give a further boost to industrial output, which had lately picked up and recorded 5.5 per cent growth in the first 10 months of 2002-03, has to be tested. But in a milieu of rising fuel prices triggering inflationary pressures industry foresees hardening of interest rates. The Reserve Bank’s monetary and credit policy, to be announced on April 29, will no doubt clear the air so far as growth prospects in the current troubled global situation, liquidity and interest rates are concerned. There would be pressure on liquidity with the Centre’s market borrowings, adjustments of state debts with new low-cost loans and year-end demands. Whether the RBI would decide to cut the bank rate and CRR to meet credit demands would depend on the view it takes of the likely inflationary trends. The RBI Governor, Dr Bimal Jalan, is confident that the financial system can be well taken care of in the context of any protracted war in Iraq, though the effect on economic growth cannot be clearly foreseen at this stage. Inevitably, the serious setback to world economic recovery depresses the outlook for trade and investment flows. A fall in the fairly impressive export growth in 2002-03 would affect both manufacturing and employment. Foreign investment flows were lower in fiscal 2002-2003 and the prospects are likely to be less favourable for a good part of the new fiscal year. Even though India’s strong foreign exchange reserve position cushions the economy from external shocks, the net invisibles may show a declining trend. The balance of payments position will, however, remain comfortable in the near future. Mr Jaswant Singh outlined in his budget speech the public-private sector involvement in infrastructure building but this may take considerable time to be conceptualised and operationalised, and may not have a marked effect on the economy in the immediate future. The government’s efforts both in regard to the FDI and the domestic private sector participation have had only limited impact. India has continued to remain below the first 10 countries in attracting FDI. Neither the higher expectations from the FDI nor domestic private investments have materialised to raise the investment rate of the economy while savings incentives are being steadily nibbled at. The Iraq war and the uncertainty about its duration, the new problems it is bound to create in the reordering of the international system and the disarray in the G-7 countries to make a coordinated approach to lift the world economy have all contributed to a gloomy outlook for both industrial and developing nations in 2003. India will be badly hit if oil prices continued to remain high as frequent revision of petroleum product prices will have a cascading effect on the prices of all goods and services which the country is already beginning to experience. Supply shortages or disruptions would only worsen the situation.
IPA |
Religion helps teens cope with hardships A new study has emphasised that those adolescents who view religion as a meaningful part of their life and a way to cope with problems are half as likely to use drugs than those who do not value religion as important. The study, tracking urban adolescents from middle school through high school, by researchers from the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, has found that the perceived importance of religion is particularly important for the teens who face stress. The belief also holds true while facing hardships like having an unemployed parent or being sick. This is known as the “buffering effect,” from the concept that something about religiosity serves to buffer the impact of adverse circumstances, say the researchers. The importance of religion is determined by responses to simple questions such as “To be able to rely on religious teachings when you have a problem”, or “To be able to turn to prayer when you’re facing a personal problem”.
ANI |
Bhagavan Vishnu is pleased with him who conducts himself well towards his parents and preceptor and avoids liquor and meat. —
Vishnudharamottara I.58 |
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