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Friday,
March 21, 2003, Chandigarh, India  
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Right signal, wrong move The
war effect
Armageddon is already here |
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Speaking silently
Delhi's new Lokayukta
The long-distance dad
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Right signal, wrong move Two Kashmir-related developments last week reflected the confusion at the political level about how to restore peace in the valley. Deputy Prime Minister L. K. Advani's announcement that Mr N. N. Vohra, the Centre's interlocutor for Kashmir, was free to hold talks with the All-Party Hurriyat Conference or any other group that shuns violence was a positive initiative. However, the alleged harassment of Kashmiri students at Charan Singh Agriculture University in Meerut and in other parts of western Uttar Pradesh at around the same time exposed the insensitivity of the system to the predicament of Kashmiri Muslims living outside the valley. Mr Advani had displayed refreshing elasticity in accepting the role of the Hurriyat in contributing to the process of restoring normalcy and peace in Jammu and Kashmir. He must show the same level of understanding in dealing with the issue of harassment of Kashmiri students outside the valley. The Hurriyat leaders had damaged their own image by boycotting the assembly elections that saw the Farooq Abdullah government being voted out through an exercise that was acknowledged as free and fair by international observers. But nursing grudges against those who seemed to have inadvertently or otherwise appeared to be playing Pakistan's game would have served no purpose. The best way to make misguided elements see reason is to involve them in the process of discussion and dialogue for the settlement of disputes. Of course, while enlarging the scope of interaction with diverse shades of opinion in Kashmir, the Deputy Prime Minister identified greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir and a similar status for the Leh and Ladakh belt, that wants reduced political and administrative interference from the valley. That is the political line the Bharatiya Janata Party believes will help restore peace in the valley. Mr Vohra has been given a free hand. It reflects the sincerity of the Central leaders in finding a permanent and acceptable solution to the many issues that have contributed to the current phase of unrest in the valley. But the report of two Kashmiri students having been picked up for interrogation by the police shows the other side of the picture. In the popular mind all Kashmiris are militants. Why? It is clearly a case of the failure of the political leadership in allowing people living in the plains to draw a negative picture of their cousins in the valley — who are actually the victims of Pakistan-sponsored proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. In the past few weeks a number of Kashmiri students in colleges in Ghaziabad, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar and Shamli have become targets of police harassment . Two of them have been booked under POTA — the law that the Centre now accepts has loopholes and has been misused by governments in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The unjustified arrests and harassment of Kashmiri students has had repercussions elsewhere. Landlords have asked them to leave to avoid being implicated as "POTA sympathisers", that is a crime under the provisions of POTA. In the valley parents, who had mortgaged their land or borrowed money for providing good education and a better quality of life to their children outside the troubled state, in a tension-free atmosphere, are understandably worried. They have accused the police of launching a witch-hunt to serve the political interests of certain organisations which enjoy considerable clout under the present dispensation. Ms Mehbooba Mufti, leader of the People's Democratic Party, has already visited Meerut and assured the students that her party will take up the matter with Mr Advani, and if necessary with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed too has expressed concern over the targeting of Kashmiri students by the police in UP. The Centre should take the development with the seriousness it deserves. There are countless instances of victims of state terrorism being forced to take to arms in self-defence and later ended up backing the wrong cause. The mistake of harassing Kashmiri students by the police in western UP should be corrected before it is too late. Otherwise this tale too may take a similar unhappy turn. |
| The war effect The inevitable has happened. Disregarding global public
opinion, the American military might has started pounding Iraq.
Experts all over are now calculating the cost their country may have
to pay for the US action. The question now uppermost in every
concerned mind is : how long will it last? In his first public address
after the war broke out on Thursday morning, President George W. Bush
spoke of decisive action. That requires a firm, heavy attack from the
start. A quick war will, no doubt, limit the damage worldwide. India’s
economy too may escape with a few scratches. The country has two
months’ oil stocks, but a war spreading beyond that may spell
serious trouble. The war spilling beyond even 20 days, warns the CII,
could lead to dire consequences: rise in petrol, diesel, LPG prices,
lower manufacturing and IT exports, and a further slowdown in the
economic recovery. The export-driven IT industry had already felt the
heat in the pre-war days. There is a lurking fear that Saddam Hussein,
driven to desperation, could get the Iraqi oilfields torched. US
intelligence reports and the Iraqi leader’s past strengthen this
possibility. Shortly after the 1991 Gulf war came to an end, the
retreating Iraqi forces had set the Kuwaiti oilfields on fire and it
took eight months’ repair work to resume normal supply. The Iraqi
oilfields produce 1.7 million barrels a day, and in the eventuality of
a fire disrupting production, oil prices could stay high with
dangerous consequences globally. OPEC has, however, promised to keep
the oil prices stable even if the Iraqi oilfields are gutted. A
long-war scenario prepared by a FICCI study is disconcerting enough:
domestic oil prices will shoot up by at least 45 per cent, inflation
will rule at 9.7 per cent and industrial growth will nosedive to 2.5
per cent. In the ripple effect, the transportation cost will shoot up.
Insurance premia for oil tankers will rise. The aviation sector will
get a hit (Air India and Indian Airlines have already curtailed or
cancelled flights). FICCI expects a 70 per cent fall in inbound
traffic. The hotel industry will suffer due to a declined tourist
flow. Besides, the Union Government will have to take care of Indians
returning home from war-affected countries. In the post-war scenario,
Indian companies can exploit fresh opportunities thrown up by the
reconstruction of a war-ravaged country. Pharmaceutical firms are the
obvious gainers from a war as are those engaged in construction work.
As President Bush set a flee-or-face-attack deadline for Saddam
Hussein, the global markets registered an unexpected upswing on
expectations of a short war. Oil prices, which had spurted 60 per cent
in the past three months in the run-up to the war, suddenly plunged
and the much battered stocks too looked up. If the regime change, or
disarmament of Iraq, as the White House spokesman likes to put it,
takes place in a short aggression with the oilfields remaining
unharmed, global oil prices would crash and the world would heave a
sigh of relief. The cost of a war is immeasurable. The pain of
dislocation is immense. The innocent people in general pay for the
follies that a few misguided leaders commit. |
Armageddon is already here So the second Gulf War is now finally upon us. This should not surprise anyone except those who were bent upon burying their heads in the sands of unreality. There never was, nor should have been, any doubt about the determination of the USA, especially of President Geroge W. Bush, to rid Iraq and the world of Mr Saddam Hussein, come hell or high water. In this context the support of the international community — for which read the UN Security Council — or the lack of it did not matter to the present incumbent of the White House. And yet, it must have been a disappointment to Mr Bush and his advisers that they failed to carry the Security Council with them. What must be more galling to them is their failure to muster the requisite nine votes and thus a “moral majority” behind a resolution rendered ineffectual by the French veto. No wonder, the venom that is being poured on France in the USA is nothing short of startling. There is indeed a hint here that, in course of time, the war on Iraq might touch off a parallel struggle between the USA that wants to preserve and perpetuate its military, economic and technological supremacy and the nations that do not want to accept America’s global hegemony. France has chosen to lead those that do not want a unipolar world order and want a multipolar one instead. What makes the case of the countries currently arrayed against America much the stronger is a chain of contradictions between the Bush administration’s inflexible determination to destroy the Saddam regime in Iraq and its indulgence to other rogue regimes that Mr Bush has described as the “axis of evil”. For instance, America’s double standards about the weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) could not have been more blatant. Mr Saddam Hussein may be trying to acquire nuclear weapons but he does not yet possess them, even according to the USA. North Korea, on the other hand, is flaunting its nuclear weapons and missiles and indeed threatening to use them. And yet while deciding to destroy the Iraqi leader, the USA proposes to settle the problem with Pyongyang through “diplomatic negotiations”. Similarly, Pakistan is host to Osama bin Laden and had bluntly refused to vote with the USA in the Security Council. Yet it remains a “key ally” of the USA and has been rewarded with the lifting of the sanctions America had imposed after the Musharraf coup in 1999. However, none of these glaring inconsistencies is likely to make any difference to the situation now or in the near future. The struggle between unipolarity and multipolarity is going to be a very slow-moving affair in any case. What needs to be watched, therefore, is the immediate course of events when bombs and missiles are flying across the deserts of Iraq. American estimates - shared reportedly by South Block - are that the military action against Iraq would be completed in two to three weeks at the most. The USA also has in place a detailed blueprint for the stabilisation, reconstruction and rehabilitation of Iraqi society and it hopes to implement it, with wider international cooperation that it hopes to muster, despite its discomfiture at the UN in the Security Council. Some, of course, are very sceptical about this. They think that America would get embroiled in a prolonged military mess and the “body bags from the battlefield, arriving back home”, would erode the support Mr. Bush’s policy enjoys at present. Such apprehensions, according to the best expert opinion available in New Delhi, are far-fetched. These were voiced even at the time of the first Gulf War 11 years ago. But even then nothing of the kind had come to pass. During the intervening period, the USA hasn’t sat hand on hand. On the contrary, it has developed an impressive array of weapons with mind-boggling lethality and precision. They are capable of piercing even the strongest and deepest of underground bunkers. Surely these will be used in the war with a view to completing it speedily. In this connection there is another factor that cannot be overlooked. It is no secret that during the 1991 Gulf War, the US armed forces were in a position to destroy the fleeing Iraqi Army and Republican Guards. But the senior President Bush desisted from doing so almost entirely on the advice of General Colin Powell, then chairman, Chiefs of Staff. Moreover, in the earlier stages of policy making on Iraq this time, Mr Powell had advocated moderation. But he has now become an eloquent advocate of the hard line. In fact, the word in Washington is that the “statesman in him has stepped aside and the soldier in him has taken over”. He also seems sanguine about the war plans drawn up by the current military leadership. There have so far been only two glitches in the unfolding of the Bush policy that has otherwise gone strictly according to the script. The first is that the difficulties of America’s most obedient ally, the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, have turned out to be greater than were anticipated. However, the resignation of Mr Robin Cook, the leader of the House and a former Foreign Secretary, and the massive revolt of Labour MPs would surely affect Mr Blair’s future adversely, it could not prevent British participation in the war. And now when the British troops are engaged in combat, the undoubtedly widespread criticism of war in Britain may simmer down. The second glitch, Turkey’s continuing refusal to let the US armed forces use the bases on its territory for an invasion of Iraq from the North, would surely make a difference to the conduct of war. But the USA has enough resources for a successful assault only from the South. An extremely generous American offer of cash was one reason why the Turkish government had agreed to host the US troops despite the strong public opinion against this policy. Another equally powerful reason was the advantage Ankara saw in joining hands with the USA. This would have enabled the Turkish army to march to the Kurdish areas of North Iraq and thus safeguarded its control of the rather rebellious Kurdish region within Turkey itself. It was the Turkish parliament, however, that put paid to all the strategic calculations of the government. America’s reaction to all this has been expectedly sharp. But the latest reports from Ankara indicate that there may yet be a last-minute agreement between the USA and Turkey on the use of Turkish facilities. For India, there must never be any hesitation to deplore unilateral military action, especially to bring about a regime change. At the same time, there is no need to embark on an orgy of America-bashing. It serves no Indian interest. Nor will our national interest be served by making the UN Security Council — which in reality means its five veto-wielding permanent members — the final arbiter on every issue under the sun. Above all, India’s enormous interests in West Asia have to be protected and enhanced in the post-Saddam dispensation. The region is the principal source of oil and gas for this energy-starved country. Three million Indians live and work there and remit home $ 6 billion a year. A durable peace between Israel and a “viable and credible” Palestinian state is also of the utmost importance to India as to the rest of the world. If New Delhi has foundered in articulating its policy in recent weeks, there are two reasons for it. In the first place, the government never lays down a clear-cut policy to be articulated only by ministers and officers. Any and every minister feels free to speak out of turn and say what he or she likes. Unfortunately, even the Prime Minister does not stick to a well-formulated statement. Secondly, a consensus on policy cannot be built at a cacophonic meeting of 36 “leaders”. Quiet, closed door consultations would be more effective. |
Speaking silently “Silence is golden whereas speech is silver,” is a proverb we must have heard umpteen of times. So to speak, the phrase itself speaks volumes, because silence is definitely better in several circumstances than speech is. Many distinguished people have told a lot about silence and speech, which I shall be presenting here between my own thoughts. First of all let us see for ourselves why silence is better than speech. Speaking silently, the silent majority believes that only empty vessels make more sound. That is to say that an ignorant man cuts a sorry figure by making noise. Any fool for that matter can criticise, condemn and complain and most fools do. Even a fish would not get into trouble if it would keep its mouth shut. By remaining silent we can hear other people’s imperfections and conceal our own. Silently you must listen to others. Even the dull and the ignorant have their own story that may really be worth hearing. I might sound as speaking with a forked tongue, if I speak the same language about speech. But let me speak out my mind. Generally speaking, everybody cannot speak out the truth. The ability to speak is a short cut to distinction. A politician can never collect votes in his bag unless and until he is a good speaker. Of course by this, I do not mean to speak up for a politician, because I am not in speaking terms with any of them. In fact, hitherto in my life I did not even get to speak up to one. I only know that between their saying and doing, one often wears off a good pair of shoes. “Sorry” and “Thank you” are magical words in routine speech. They speak for themselves the wonder they result in. “Sorry” is an instant balm to a hurt done. This one word is worth a thousand others in healing a wrong one may have done knowingly or unintentionally. But always say “sorry” at the right moment. “Thank you” is another phrase, which you must stock amply in your pockets. Thanking a person for the good done creates goodwill and shows your sense of gratitude. Thus speech speaks up for itself whereas silence dumbs it own issues. Speech may result in asking dumb questions, but by exposing your ignorance you can at least avoid dumb mistakes. However, some people talk because they think sound is more manageable than silence. So now that we know the truth about speech and its contemporary, i.e. silence, let us all learn to speak silently. I hope I have not spoken too soon, because now where has all my audience gone? |
Delhi's new Lokayukta After administering justice in various courts in the Capital, Justice (retd.) Mohammed Shamim now enters an important office, that of Lokayukta of Delhi, to act as the conscience-keeper and watchdog of the activities of officials and political leaders, including the Chief Minister. He steps into the office which had earlier convicted a Delhi MLA on power theft charges and acquitted Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit of corruption charges. With the assembly elections due in Delhi later this year, allegations and complaints might be the order of the day to malign political rivals, and Justice Shamim will have to trudge cautiously. His vast judicial experience will come in handy in this difficult course. Born on December 30, 1937, Mohd. Shamim joined the UP Judicial Service in May, 1964, and worked as Munsif Magistrate Ist class, Sub-Judge Ist class, Delhi Rent Controller, Delhi Additional Chief Metropolitan Magistrate and Senior Sub-Judge. He was promoted Additional District and Sessions Judge in 1978 and District and Sessions Judge in 1990. Mohd. Shamim was appointed Additional Judge of the Delhi High Court in 1991 and a permanent Judge in 1992. After retiring at the age of 62 in December 1999, Justice Shamim was appointed Chairman of the National Commission for Minorities. Well-versed with the problems and political nuances of Delhi, Justice Shamim’s judicial acumen would be keenly watched in the coming months. An Indian brain with a difference At the age of 29, when many of his peers will be drawing their career roadmap, Piyush “Bobby” Jindal, an Indian American, has set his sights on not less than the Governorship of the state of Louisiana. Described by the American NRI community as a “young spark of Indian parentage”, Bobby quit the Bush Administration last month where he was the Assistant Secretary for planning and evaluation in the Department of Health Services. He returned to breathe his native air in Baton Rouge and is actively considering to run for the Governor of the state. In his letter to President George W Bush, Bobby is believed to have written that he was leaving the “great administration” in pursuit of an exciting leadership opportunity and to “serve families in Louisiana directly”. He had been with the Bush Administration since July, 2001. A convert to Catholicism, Bobby is believed to be obsessed with public service and at the age of 24, while many of his friends were in graduate schools or taking the first steps of the corporate ladder, he was the Secretary of Health in Louisiana. To his credit, Bobby was largely instrumental in wiping off the $ 400 million deficit in Louisiana’s health system by overhauling it, and also created a $ 170 million surplus. At 27 he was appointed President of the University of Louisiana System, one of the largest public university systems in America, with nearly 100,000 students and $ 450 million annual budget. As Assistant Secretary in the administration, he played a key role in developing major reform initiatives, including the modernisation of Medicare — America’s largest health insurance system. With degrees in biology and public policy from Brown University, Bobby had been living in Washington for some time before moving back to his native state. Married to Supriya Jolly, a chemical engineer, he says he is encouraged to run for the Governorship of Louisiana by the present Governor himself. |
The long-distance dad These days, as we are all aware, the nuclear family is something of a novelty. For many kids, by the time they reach the age of ten, the idea of having two blood parents who live together is not some lost ideal, but rather just one of the myriad household options available to the modern child. How do we reconcile the increase in family break-ups on the one hand and the modern need to ‘do our own thing’ (which doesn’t magically disappear at the moment of conception, believe it or not) on the other, with the unchanging needs of children? It might be that we have to be grown-ups and realise that the fin de last siecle ideas of break-up and personal fulfilment, despite being advances and imperfect improvements on the road to better families, do come at a cost. Of course, to even debate the balance between personal fulfilment and parenting is not a luxury that is open to most mothers — the vitriol that is reserved for women who leave their children is rabid in comparison to the sympathy and indulgence on the receiving end of which the long-distance father finds himself.
The Observer |
Blessed are the poor — those who have not the spirit of riches, for theirs are the riches of the spirit. Blessed are they who make nothing their own, for they shall possess all things. Blessed are they who covet nothing, for they will receive all that others covet. Happy are the unhappy for the kingdom of happiness is within them. Blessed are the meek for they alone shall survive when the rest have finished destroying each other. Blessed are they whom the world condemns, for they shall be its judges. —Paul Richard, “The Gospel of the Mountains”. |
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Justice Shamim’s significant order in the hawala case acquitted Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani and also saw subsequent acquittal of dozens of political leaders. He will now look into the complaints of one and all against those holding high offices.