Tuesday,
September 11, 2001, Chandigarh, India
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Don’t insult the hungry More distress signals Derailing the issue |
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Slowdown’s link with structural factors
Bangkok cracks down on night life
Why Indians suffer more heart attacks Low-fibre dishes for stressed-out stomach
GM develops contraceptive corn
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More distress signals MORE depressing news on the economic front, this time from a deeply interested party. The latest review of the Indian economy by CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) says it with figures and with impeccable logic that first rays of revival will be visible only in the first quarter of the next financial year – April-June, 2002. That is 10 months away and the damage in the intervening period can be quiet unsettling. CII says the government has lost the initiative to slow down the economic slowdown. Even if it refocuses on reforms and implements all the suggestions made to it, it will take many months before results start showing. And it indirectly charges the government with lacking the political will and economic vision to undertake the urgent task. CII is a strong supporter of the government, even attracting criticism of being an apologist. But its analysis and reports are purely academic and valuable. The report says that agriculture will grow by 5 per cent and contribute slightly more than one-third of the expected growth rate of 5.25 per cent. This is a double-edged weapon. The Union Finance Ministry will be happy that higher food output gives a healthy look to the statistics of growth. But it and the Civil Supplies Ministry will tremble at the thought of adding more than 10 million tonnes of rice to the rotting grain mountain of 62 million tonnes with the FCI. The manufacturing (secondary) sector will grow by a measly 3 per cent or more, reflecting a shrinking demand for items of everyday use like soap and tea. Two years of drought in some parts and flood in others have cut into the purchasing power of the rural clientele and one good monsoon is unlikely to undo the ill-effects. The service (tertiary) sector will record a more than 6 per cent increase but this means neither more revenue nor more jobs. This sector is notoriously inward-looking and contributes less to the economic health of the country. The CII report comes as a valedictory piece to a hectic week-long brain storming the Prime Minister had with his Cabinet colleagues, a foreign consultancy firm, captains of trade and industry and his own private advisers. As is his wont, he announced massive investment in infrastructural projects like roads and railways and expected the private sector to ride biggyback to mutual prosperity. But industry is cool for obvious reasons. It has heard all this before and has seen nothing coming out of the promises. So far the two advisory councils of the Prime Minister have made 500 proposals to tone up the economy and only about 20 of them have been accepted. |
Derailing the issue THE CBI caught 67 unauthorised travellers in a controversial raid on the elite Palace on Wheels train on Saturday. Most of them have been identified by a CBI spokesman as Rajasthan Government officials and their family members, besides journalists. Each ticket for this luxurious train costs about Rs 1.19 lakh. The unexpected but seemingly motivated CBI catch came after four BJP legislators had complained to the Rajasthan Governor and the Railway Board Chairman two days ago that about 100 persons were travelling ticketless in the prestigious train. They had alleged that the Rajasthan Tourism Development Corporation Chairman, Mr Rajiv Arora, was giving favours to his near and dear ones by treating them as RTDC guests on the Palace on Wheels tour. The RTDC Chairman, who is considered close to the Chief Minister, and the state Tourism Minister, Ms Beena Kak, who has her mentors at 10 Janpath, are at loggerheads. Both being well-connected, nothing is expected to come out of the much-publicised CBI raid unless the higher authorities intervene effectively. Ms Beena Kak has ordered an inquiry, while Mr Arora, asserting RTDC autonomy, has objected to the minister’s action. Already efforts are on to sidetrack the issue. Rajasthan officials and the beneficiary journalists are questioning the CBI authority to conduct the raid and point out that the CBI team was not carrying any search warrant. CBI spokesman S.M.Khan, talking to the media in Delhi on Sunday, clarified that the CBI acted on oral orders and claimed it was fully empowered to carry out the raid under the Delhi Special Police Establishment Act. Another objection raised by the Rajasthan officials is that the raid, first of its kind since the train was started in 1983, has ruined their efforts to sell the train to foreign tourists. The raid has, in fact, highlighted the way the most expensive train is being used on the pretext of promoting tourism. The only justifiably aggrieved party is the group of 38 foreign tourists aboard the train, to whom the raid caused inexcusable inconvenience. The authorities owe them an apology and financial relief , if they so desire. Meanwhile, the Railways should act firmly to prevent further misuse of its property and claim compensation from the state official(s) responsible for the free ride. It has the support of the recent Rakesh Mohan committee report which has recommended that the governments should compensate the Railways for all concessions granted to the MPs and MLAs . And also to others, naturally. |
Slowdown’s link with structural factors LEADING consultants Mckinsey & Company were presenting their agenda on how India could achieve a 10 per cent growth rate by 2005 at 7 Race Course Road. The august audience included the Prime Minister and other members of the Council of Ministers. The consultants advocated complete elimination of the SSI reservation list, unrestricted entry of FDIs, radical power sector reforms and privatisation of large PSUs, besides radical fiscal and labour reforms. At the end of the presentation, the Prime Minister is reported to have asked, “Lekin yeh sab hoga kaise?” Implementation is the buzzword. The recent assessment of the Indian economy brings bad news. The slowdown is ominous for the teeming millions suffering from multidimensional poverty. Their struggle for survival, even at the level of what Maslow called the physiological needs, will become more intense. Nonetheless, the assessment has become more conspicuous because of the impact being experienced by the well-to-do class. (The poor may suffer silently. The rich do not do so. When profits are uncertain, when secure jobs in the organised sector are in jeopardy, or when a government department is under the threat of downsizing, the anguish of the suffering people gets vivid expression). Several leading economists of the country and politicians of all hues have expressed their agony at the slowdown. The Prime Minister, while delivering his Independence Day message to the nation, boldly made the clearest statement on the problem. A day later, Finance Secretary Rakesh Mohan, in an interview published in Business Standard, assessed the state of the current economy in the following words: “... very obviously, the economy has slowed down considerably. ... . The bad performance of agriculture for two years running has affected rural demand, which cumulatively has had an impact on demand as a whole. Second, the downturn in the world economy is much more severe than anyone had predicted so far. There is, as yet, no authoritative view of the possible timing of the upturn.” The executive board of the International Monetary Fund has made many adulatory observations regarding the intentions behind the recent economic policy changes in India. But one finds after a careful study of the document that the IMF is quite concerned, no less than the Indians are, about the future health of the Indian economy. The IMF portrays a grim near-term outlook and by implication, the medium and, long-term portents. Indeed, as the India’s executive director on the IMF board, Mr Vijay Kelkar, has said the IMF is impatient and frustrated with the pace of change in India. Policy-makers and experts agree on the diagnosis that both cyclical and structural factors have contributed to the slowdown. Thus, according to the IMF external shocks due to the susceptibility of the economy to the reality of the cycle in growth activity and swings in global slowdown as well as domestic structural constraints and the fiscal situation are adversely affecting the investment and the economy’s underlying potential. The analysis of the problem done by the Reserve Bank of India (Annual Report, 2000-1) can be quoted here: “The deceleration of economic activity for the second year in succession has raised some concerns about the feasibility of rapidly moving to a higher growth path in the medium term... . Given the unsatisfactory capital accumulation, infrastructural requirements are emerging as binding constraints on growth. The size and quality of fiscal adjustment have also remained insufficient, resulting not only in shifts in the pattern of aggregate demand from investment to consumption in the government sector but also undermining the output and quality of delivery of public services. The large and growing financing requirements of the Centre and the states have occasionally strained the financial markets, rendering the conduct of both monetary policy and debt management more complex... . “The experience of the late 1990s suggests that India is not immune to the slowdown phase of the global business cycle. The recent slowdown in economic activity seems to reflect a combination of cyclical and structural factors... . The general deficiency in aggregate demand, and in particular, the faltering pace of investment demand, a relatively low requirement of bank credit, the slowdown in currency expansion, decline in import demand and some evidence of high carrying cost of inventories being incurred by some industries are indicators of cyclical influences on the growth process. “On the other hand, growing evidence on the gaps in agricultural development and the absolute deficiency in physical and social infrastructure, which are already operating as a drag on the speed and quality of growth, are being identified as structural impediments.” There is a broad agreement also on what should be done. The directors of the IMF have made elaborate and serious suggestions for coming out of the impasse. They have set certain critical priority areas — some unanimously, others by a significant number — as a piece of advice. They focus on the following: *Establishing a clearly defined timetable for lowering the government deficit. *Prompt passage of the draft fiscal responsibility legislation and strict implementation following the enactment of a law. *An enforcement mechanism to ensure credibility and durability of legislation. *Early adoption of the recommendations of the Expenditure Reforms Commission and the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, in particular for cutting fiscal subsidies, improving the delivery and targeting of poverty reduction programmes, downsizing the government and increasing the efficiency of Plan spending. *State-level fiscal reforms backed by a hardening of budget constraints. *Check on public sector borrowing so that an easy monetary policy, for example further reduction of interest rates, could be pursued without undermining the credibility of the authorities’ commitment to price stability. *Give market forces freer play in the foreign exchange policy. *Improve governance in the financial sector (remove weaknesses in supervisory and regulatory systems, strengthen payment and settlement systems, and devise a mechanism to deal with non-performing loans), and allow a greater role for the private sector in the banking industry. *Implement the reforms on the lines laid out by the Economic Advisory Council, particularly, increase the tariff for agricultural consumers and devise measures to reduce theft and the distribution losses in the power sector. *Reform bankruptcy legislation, reform the policies governing the small-scale sector, the privatisation of government enterprises, and the liberalisation of labour laws in order to improve productivity and competitiveness in the industrial sector. *Streamline administrative procedures and regulations to attract foreign direct investment. *Ease trade restrictions and the movement of agricultural commodities, sharply reduce the role of the government procurement agency, and improve cost recovery. *Reduce customs duties in a timely manner and ensure that potential gains from trade liberalisation were not undermined by an overuse of offsetting measures. There is a general feeling that the second-generation reforms should be speeded up. Addressing the 49th National Development Council meeting on September 1, 2001, the Prime Minister spelt out a 14-point agenda to accelerate the reform process. This agenda is in broad consonance with the priorities set by the IMF directors. These include downsizing the government, pruning the subsidies, relaxing the labour laws, rejuvenating the power sector, invigorating the financial sector, removing perverse laws and improving the judicial system. He solicited the states’ cooperation in furthering the ongoing reform programmes and “making poverty elimination the central objective of development”. For increasing the revenue, he emphasised widening of tax collection, ending PSU losses, and launching innovative drives to mop up resources, like the “collection of proper user charges”. For reducing expenditure he suggested the downsizing of the government and the pruning of non-merit subsidies. Agricultural development has been recognised as the core element of the growth strategy in the 10th Plan. He underscored the role of compulsions of competitive politics, the attitude of trade unions, corruption and red-tapism as roadblocks in the process of second generation reforms. The question is, “Lekin yeh sab kaise hoga?” The above policy announcements ironically coincided with the increase in the size of the Central Cabinet of Ministers. Will the government be able to downsize itself? Almost simultaneously, the MPs were happy to have enhanced their own salary and allowances, which would cost the exchequer no less than Rs 24 crore annually. Will the government be able to cut its expenses? Reduce the budget deficit? The Chief Ministers of non-NDA states seem to have waged a war against the Centre. Will the Prime Minister get the needed cooperation from the states in furthering the reform process and poverty elimination? Will the country be able to arrest mounting unemployment and the resultant social strife? Planning Commission Deputy Chairman KC Pant has also expressed apprehensions about this in his address to the 49th NDC meeting. Will the Prime Minister be able to stem corruption and red-tapism as he so forcefully promised on Independence Day from the ramparts of the Red Fort? It is believed in policy circles that a speedy implementation of the second-generation reforms will work as a panacea for all the ills. Will it? Particularly, will the second-generation reforms really alleviate poverty? One is reminded of a story. There was a place where rats lived happily. But a nasty cat came and started living there. It killed rats with impunity. The rats didn’t know what to do. So, they went to a consultant, an owl, living nearby to seek his advice. He recommended the rats to become cats! Fortunately, prices are stable and foreign exchange reserves are increasing. But will not pushing the growth objective too far, supported by massive spending to rev up the economy, create uncontrollable inflationary pressures? Will there not be a conflict between the champions of swadeshi and globalisation? Will the environmental concerns be subjugated to the objective of economic growth? In that case, will the development be sustainable? These issues appear to be slighted in the new economic initiatives. The tallest political leader of India today, Prime Minister Vajpayee, has gone beyond the Red Fort rhetoric. He showed his implementation commitment in the 49th NDC meeting on September 1. Three days later he formed a policy-oriented committee, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Security, which he himself will head. He has asked for a blueprint on labour reforms. He has also ordered a review of the entire gamut of public schemes and projects by a group led by the Cabinet Secretary, and an analysis of the causes behind deviations from the planned rate of growth by the Finance Ministry and the RBI. He pushed his implementation agenda further on September 7 in a brainstorming session with key economic ministers, civil servants and corporate honchos on his trade and industry council. But the thin rays of hope are too feeble amidst the multivariate dark shadows. There is widespread cynicism. Can the political leadership breathe hope into the public at large in this age of short-term compulsions? The writer is Professor, University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh. |
Bangkok cracks down on night life TOURISTS who flock to Bangkok may well have to do without the country’s salacious night life, for the government is cracking down on it, according to The Washington Times. “A government crackdown on Bangkok notorious night life has left tourists and local night owls accustomed to a nocturnal night of beer, scantily clad women and the occasional illicit drugs, wondering where they can spend their post-midnight hours. Establishments such as the White House have been shuttered. Bill’s Coffee House, named after former President Bill Clinton, is nearly empty. Even the customers in Monica Lewinsky’s seem forlorn”, the paper says. “It’s crazy”, said Lesley, an Australian chef on a two-month vacation who asked that his family name not to be used. Nin, the young hostess sitting in his lap at a bar along Sukhumvit Road, shook her head in resignation. “Not so many customers these days. In half an hour, the police will sweep through and anyone still here will scatter.” The unlikely couple, it says, were among the stranglers proping up one of two dozen open-air bars at the Clinton Entertainment Plaza, an office building converted into a warren of strip clubs, girlie bars and pickup joints named after the former US President after the Monica Lewinsky episode. The crackdown has been in place for a month now.
PTI |
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Why Indians suffer more heart attacks MORE and more Indians are getting heart attacks and succumbing to them because they don’t live with nature, eat bad food and eat at the wrong hour. It is no wonder, then, that Indians start getting heart diseases 10 years before Americans, although the latter are known to take more junk food. Then there are Indians who pass off good food to their servants thinking it “cheap food”, but end up dining at expensive restaurants whose fare is not good for healthy hearts. “That is one of the major reasons why so many people die of heart attacks in India,” said cardiologist K.K. Agarwal of Mool Chand Hospital. Of the 30 million heart patients in India, “250,000 die of heart attacks every year” and “180,000 die before reaching the hospital, which means within an hour of the attack, Agarwal told IANS. “We in India give our servants cheap vegetables and we eat expensive vegetables ourselves. We give the servant ration rice and we eat polished rice. We give the servant lemon water and we drink Coke and Pepsi. “What we don’t realise is that the cheap food we are giving to the servant is natural food and what we eat is unnatural. This is what increases the risk factors. “The food we eat is absolutely unnatural and most of it is eaten at night. In the U.S. people eat dinner by 7 p.m., and that is the best time to eat. Eating unnatural food, which we do, after 7 p.m. is most harmful. “Of course there are the other normal factors like blood pressure, sugar and obesity, but the main problem that we are not focusing on is that we are most of the time eating unnatural food — bad fat and bad carbohydrate.” Heart disease among Indians is much more serious than in the West, and that is why 75 per cent of all patients die within one hour of heart attack — before any medical aid can be made available, Agarwal said. “Indians get heart disease 10 years earlier than Americans, according to a study. If an American gets the disease at 50 the Indian will get it at 40,” he said. Dr Ravi Kasliwal, a senior cardiologist at Escorts Heart Centre here, said: “Definitely in India younger and younger people are becoming heart patients. 10 per cent Indians are heart patients and that is alarming. “Even more shocking is that so many out of these die within an hour of the attack, which we call the Golden Hour. If we can save the patient in that hour, we can do wonders for him. But patients in India have such serious heart problems they die right after the attack. “Heart diseases can be prevented. But for prevention people need to be aware that they might be inching towards a heart problem. Awareness is necessary,” he said. Agarwal gave a “one-line answer” for preventing heart diseases. “Live in accordance with the laws of nature.” To make people aware, the Heart Care Foundation of India launched a month-long campaign beginning September 1, said Agarwal, its Executive Vice-Chairman. “It is basically community service. I think we owe it to the people. In the campaign we will give consultation and even do blood tests at nominal prices. If a person were to go to a hospital, it won’t cost him less than Rs 2,000.” IANS |
Low-fibre dishes for stressed-out stomach WHEN you’re wound up and your gut feels like it’s tying itself into knots, the best foods to eat are unchallenging, low-fibre foods such as white bread, pasta, mashed potatoes, Cornflake-type cereals and blander fruits such as bananas, apples and pears rather than, say, oranges, grapefruits or berries, which tend to be too acidic for an already acidic gut to cope with. Because the cooking process serves to break down vegetables’ tough cell walls, cooked vegetables are usually easier to digest than salads. Likewise, white meats and fish tend to be more digestible than large amounts of red meat. But bear in mind that very oily fish, such as mackerel or tuna, can aggravate indigestion, so it’s wise to steer clear of them and opt for the less oily varieties. Remember, too, that your stomach won’t tolerate fatty foods well, including creamy sauces and fried foods, when you’re stressed or suffering seriously from the symptoms of (IBS irritable-bowel syndrome.) Finally, whenever you feel you’re really up against it try this rescue remedy: a cup of mint or camomile tea, which can soothe a troubled mind and calm a rebellious gut. Stock up on herbal teabags and stow a few in your handbag, so that they are always at hand to brew into a calming potion whenever stress strikes. Bone meals If you suffer from osteoporosis, your lifestyle can have a significant effect on the brittleness of your bones, according to researchers at Britain’s University of Southampton’s MRC Environmental Epidemiology Unit. The Southampton researchers concluded that, as well as stopping smoking and taking exercise, making certain adjustments to your diet can decrease your risk of suffering osteoporotic fractures. Chief among the dietary measures that the researchers highlight and recommend are taking some form of calcium supplement to help reduce the risk of vertebral fractures, as well as a combined calcium and vitamin D supplement to protect the hips and other non-vertebral bony sites. Dental problems Should one avoid eating too much fruit if the enamel on the teeth is apparently weak. One can incur far more severe health problems than simply dental caries by leaving out fruit from the diet. So continue eating fruit, but protect the teeth by taking the following precautionary steps: First, try to brush your teeth as soon as possible after eating fruit, to disperse the natural fruit sugars that can cling to teeth, erode enamel and cause decay. Because this isn’t always practical, however, the alternative is to drink lots of water to wash the sugar away. Secondly, because they contain both sugar and citric acid, citrus fruits tend to wreak the most damage on teeth, so either limit your intake of oranges and grapefruits and their juice, or switch to apples or pears, which are kinder to teeth. The Observer |
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GM develops contraceptive corn SCIENTISTS have created the ultimate GM crop: contraceptive corn: Waiving fields of maize may one day save the world from overpopulation. The pregnancy prevention plants are the handiwork of the San Diego biotechnology company Epicyte, where researchers have discovered a rare class of human antibodies that attack sperm. By isolating the genes that regulate the manufacture of these antibodies, and by putting them in corn plants, the company has created tiny horticultural factories that make contraceptives. ‘We have a hothouse filled with corn plants that make anti-sperm antibodies’, said Epicyte president Mitch Hein. ‘We have also created corn plants that make antibodies against the herpes virus, so we should be able to make a plant-based jelly that not only prevents pregnancy but also blocks the spread of sexual disease.’ Contraceptive corn is based on research on the rare condition, immune infertility, in which a woman makes antibodies that attack sperm. ‘Essentially, the antibodies are attracted to surface receptors on the sperm,’ said Hein. ‘They latch on and make each sperm so heavy it cannot move forward. It just shakes about as if it was doing the lambada.’ Normally, biologists use bacteria to grow human proteins. However, Epicyte decided to use corn because plants have cellular structures that are much more like those of humans, making them easier to manipulate. The company, which says it will not grow the maize near other crops, says it plans to launch clinical trials of the corn in a few months. The Observer |
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Books for school boys WE have received for review a copy of the "Adhiat-i-Urdu" written by Master Harnam Singh Afzal and published by Messrs. Harnam Das and Sons, Publishers and Booksellers, Amritsar. The book has been prepared in conformity with the revised University syllabus and will prove to be a reliable guide to those preparing for the Urdu examinations. Besides containing the explanation of nearly all the important Vernacular idioms and about 40 essays on modern antiquity, it contains valuable hints on essay writing, story reconstructing and letter writing. The book covers more than five hundred pages and is priced at Re 1 and annas two only. |
Life is a movement Process. Fluidity. But ideas become fixed. So also become anti-life. They become dead blocks. Do not remain with them. MOVE. And do not fear inconsistency. Because life is not a syllogism. Life is not a theory. But a Mystery.
*** Some one asked Mulla Nasrudin: “How old are you, Mulla?” “Forty”. “But you said the same last time I asked you five years ago!” “Yes, I am always consistent and always stand by what I have said.”
Existence simply is. And likewise is life. There is no purpose in it. And there is no end to it. Oh! feel it Here and Now. Do
not practice it because that is the way of the utilitarian mind! Be playful and only then you will know the playfulness of the universe. And to know that, is to be religious. — From Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh’s letters to
*** World We milk the cow of the world and as we do We whisper in her ear, “You are not true”. — Richard Wilbr, Ceremony |
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