M.L. Kak
Tribune News ServiceJammu, July 17
The fallout of the failure of the Indo-Pak summit in resolving some of the bilateral problems facing the two countries would have its multi-dimensional impact more on Jammu and Kashmir than in other part of India.
This the common refrain one can hear in various parts of the state, be it from intellectual, a trader, a border villager or a government employee.
“We may have to face the brunt of the annoyed Pakistan President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, who left Agra last night without making the Indian side agree to his terms for signing a joint declaration,” said a senior police officer. He and other officers of different security agencies were unanimous in saying that the level of militancy would increase in Jammu and Kashmir provided there is some secret understanding between the two sides under which Islamabad may not encourage militants and Delhi reduces the number of troops and avoids dealing harshly with those supporting separatist forces.
Common people living not only in the border areas of Poonch, Rajouri, Uri and Kupwara but even in Jammu and Srinagar cities, besides other towns, seemingly have been gripped by fear following emphatic statements from Syed Salahuddin, chief of the United Jehad Council, and from leaders of the Hizbul Mujahideen in which they had made it clear that the level of violence would increase after the failure of the summit.
Border villagers of Poonch, Rajouri, Uri and Kupwara have added fears because they feel the LoC may be “live again”. They said that since November last, when India had declared unilateral ceasefire, Pakistan’s restraint order to its troops had rendered the LoC quiet. Even when Delhi announced withdrawal of the ceasefire the LoC remained calm.
Another fallout of the summit failure would be on the rate of infiltration from across the border. Though there was hardly any improvement on the front during the past three months, the Pakistani agencies may utilise all their sources to push into the state large groups of militants, especially foreign mercenaries, to raise the level of violence which could force Delhi to resume talks with Islamabad.
The failure of the summit has equally saddened those who had plans of making a fortune from land deals once Uri and R.S. Pora were made the entry points under India’s plan of easing the travel procedure. And those in Kashmir who had dreamt of seeing General Musharraf securing some sort of quasi-independent status for the valley feel shaken in their bed. Traders and intellectuals when approached for a comment on the deadlock at the summit said, “We had, at least, hopes that some agreement would be worked out under which peace would have been possible in the state.”
Both the state and the central government functionaries admit in private that they have to be ready to face “bigger trouble by way of heavy armed strikes by the Fidayeen (suicide squads) and other rebel groups.
They said that plan were being formulated to make additional deployment of troops on the LoC, particularly in Poonch and Rajouri sectors, to check infiltration and some sort of Kargil-type incidents. They said already red alert had been sounded on the entire Indo-Pak border and measures would be intensified for sanitising those areas where militants had fortified their positions.
In comparison to various political parties the 23-party conglomerate, the APFC, would find itself in a tight corner with the failure of the Agra summit. Though General Musharraf had tried to pull the conglomerate out of irrelevance by accepting to talk to its leaders in Delhi it finds itself somewhat in hot waters as by demonstrating their keenness the Hurriyat leaders had already burnt their bridges with Delhi.
It is no longer a secret that General Musharraf simply tried to grant political legitimacy to the Hurriyat leaders but he too had suggested to them to evolve a mechanism which could help them to establish their credentials as representatives of the people of Kashmir.
Inside reports said that while Syed Ali Shah Geelani suggested to General Musharraf that Pakistan should not deviate from “history”, which meant that Islamabad should stick to the implementation of UN resolutions on Kashmir, other four leaders wanted the Pakistan President to be flexible so that the main issue was resolved amicably in the interests of the people and peace in the state.
Since the Hurriyat Conference has lost, at-least for the time being, a chance to play a role, the ruling National Conference has become more relevant under the changed Indo-Pak scenario after the Agra fiasco. The party, especially its president, Dr Farooq Abdullah, would continue to be a safe bet in Kashmir for the Centre.
