Saturday, June 24 2000, Chandigarh, India
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Purulia revisited The Purulia arms-drop case has a way of bobbing up every time an Indian or a Russian leader goes visiting the other country. And that is what is hampering the style of functioning of External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh in Moscow for the past four days. India's score at G-15 There are several reasons why India is not among the top destinations for foreign visitors. One reason is the harassment they invariably face at the hands of unscrupulous tour operators and tourist guides.
India-Pakistan nuclear balance |
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Deep inside the pista bags
When will privatisation finally come?
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India-Pakistan nuclear balance THERE are no smiles in Pakistan over an American television — NBC News — report that its nuclear arsenal is superior to that of India with perhaps five times the nuclear warheads. Rather, the Pakistani military rulers wear a grim look. And the flamboyant Dr Khan of Kahuta fame is mum. Is that baffling? Not quite. Pakistani fears are that the American report will nudge India towards gearing up its nuclear weapon program, the fallout of which could be terribly costly for them. A nuclear arms competition with India revives prospects in Pakistan of much dreaded financial bankruptcy. But indeed there are some baffling points about the American news report. Adopting a posture of superior western know-how, the report just turns known parameters upside down. Till as recently as the fall of 1997, dependable western nuclear intelligence such as Sweden’s SIPRI had put India’s plutonium fissile pool capable of producing 80 to 100 Nagasaki-type weapons. American Congressional intelligence had placed Indian nuclear weapon capacity as of then close to 100. And after the Pokhran II tests, the very same NBC began putting out alarmist reports about India’s nuclear weapon standing. One Western report noted that India could produce over 300 nuclear bombs if it diverts plutonium processed from its chain of power reactors towards weapon making. That obviously was meant to depict India as a nation committed towards a big nuclear weapon build-up, slamming India’s declared nuclear deterrent status to be a deception. In contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear weapon capacity was pushed down to about a 12 to 20 crude atomic bombs. We are now witnessing an about-turn in the American tilt. Why so? Has there since been a dramatic turn in Pakistan to bring about a major upswing? Hardly plausible. It would be stupid to expect such a happening since atom bombs do not grow like apples on trees, much less does nuclear technology or infrastructure, which fructifies after years of dedicated application and development. It is being said that there has been a “reassessment” by American official sources after the 1998 test series by India and Pakistan. That looks rather topsy turvy, for, Pakistan’s tests in the Chagai hills that followed the Indian series at Pokhran evoked disappointment among Western monitoring agencies, which gave a near unanimous verdict that only one, and possibly two, of the claimed six Pakistani tests yielded successful atomic explosions. The others flopped. On the contrary, the Indian tests — to recall the 1998 post-Pokhran fall-out — according to competent Western monitoring agencies, revealed a high level of nuclear technological capability. One Western nuclear specialist noted that Indian nuclear establishment had exceptional self-confidence in giving out data of their five tests immediately, total explosive yield of the Pokhran II tests being 60 kilotons, divided between the four fission tests (15 kilotons) and one thermonuclear test (45 kilotons). Even the Americans and the former Soviet Union had not given out data of their first tests, it was noted. True, there has been controversy over the claimed Indian thermonuclear test. But much of it is motivated. A survey by Microsoft Observer following the Indian test series gave conclusive evidence that the Indian thermonuclear test showed complete harmony between the complex physics-chemistry and engineering components involved in the thermonuclear weapon design and testing. A noted Western specialist quoted by Microsoft Observer held Indian scientists conducting the thermonuclear test in high esteem. A year after the tests, Dr R. Chidambaram, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, made the following significant observations in an interview to this writer: “The other question you asked about the nature of the thermonuclear device. This was a two stage device, the first stage is always fission device — a fission trigger, and in advanced thermonuclear devices, it is a boosted fission device. And in our case, the boosted fission device was the first stage of the thermonuclear device. Otherwise it was a standard two-stage nuclear device.” What then is the genesis of the new American thinking quoted by the NBC News report which places Pakistan much ahead of India in nuclear weapon capability as well as in their means of delivery. Quite simply, this is a piece of tilted nuclear diplomacy at play which welds nuclear facts and fiction with politics and diplomacy. The report says that American sources now feel that Pakistan has a bigger weapon strength than India — close to 80 to 100 earlier attributed to India. And the strength of nuclear weapons with India could be what was earlier credited to Pakistan — approximately 20. Unfortunately for the NBC, the Pakistani generals have not been boosted by this report but are mighty afraid that in both technology and economics, they are hardly in a position to match India. They are afraid such posing could mean unbearable strain on Pakistan’s slender reserves. Yet it would be useful to verify the facts on the ground. These facts show that the only known source of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is the Kahuta uranium enrichment plant. Its capacity? Enriched uranium core that could sustain three small atomic weapon devices every two years. Even this arithmetic may prove to be overrated for according to competent scientific sources, the Kahuta uranium enrichment does not always live up to its target of 90 per cent uranium enrichment. Which means that the fissile core provided by Kahuta could be undependable for atomic explosive devices resting on it. The known Indian sources of weapon grade plutonium — for India has no major uranium enrichment facility — are the Dhruva and Cirus reactors. It is largely on the reprocessed spent fuel from these reactors that India’s weapons standing has been assessed hitherto. And the weapon grade plutonium obtained has been tested. There is no reason to downgrade assessment of this capability which has been in full play for a decade and a half (Cirus has been under renovation since 1998). But what may be news for the India-bashers is that an important new weapon grade plutonium source is at hand at Kalpakkam, which could meet any contingency needs for India’s nuclear deterrence. The new atomic safety regulation which has come into place, separating the civilian regulatory authority from the BARC’s atomic weapon research and development should gear up and streamline India’s weapon capability. Does this mean that the NBC News report is a pure science fiction piece? Not at all. Wrapped up in the report is an important news — confirmation of intelligence stories piling up over the years. That a major source of Pakistan’s fissile weapon pool is smuggled uranium, bought from the thriving European/CIS black market. And herein lies the rub. The nuclear diplomacy at play seeks to divert attention from the source of Pakistan’s smuggled enriched uranium, by focusing it on China. The timing gives away the motivation. The fact is that the culprit is the half a dozen western intelligence agencies which have been winking at Pakistan’s nuclear-related smuggling operations for over a decade. China is unlikely to be the source of enriched uranium for Pakistan — and for cogent reasons. Beijing takes such decisions shrewdly. It would not risk its basic concerns — five years in the future the same religious fundamentalists could pose a threat to it no less. All this of course should not engender complacency in India. There may be some truth in Indian quibble over deployment. For Indian decision-makers are not the ideal ones in sensitive operational matters. And the unpardonable fact that there is lack of synergy between the nuclear scientific establishment and the political leadership darkens the Indian horizon. As against this, Pakistan’s military establishment is efficient and decisive in such matters. As for Pakistan’s declared superiority in delivery systems, one should understand the difference between India’s indigenous development and the source of Pakistan’s much vaunted Ghauri missile. It is the Washington Post which gave away the story two years ago. “With check book in hand” Pakistani negotiators stuck the deal in 1997 for acquiring North Korea’s best missile, not yet inducted into its own army. A cash-strapped Pyongyang informed Washington about the deal but the latter turned its face away. How many Ghauris did Pakistan acquire? The figure could be counted on finger tips said the Washington Post. No more than 10 or 12 Ghauri is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. But the indigenously built Indian missiles, Agni and Prithvi, are more dependable. They fit in well in India’s strategy of deterrence. The writer is a specialist on nuclear issues. |
When will privatisation finally come? ONCE more last week India was declared amongst the most corrupt countries in the world. We follow closely behind countries like Nigeria and Cameroon who get first prize in the corruption stakes. This year, according to Transparency International’s Perception Index, we rank above only six countries who are more corrupt than us: Russia, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria and
Cameroon. Commenting on the index the Central Vigilance Commissioner, N. Vittal, is reported to have said that there were four key players in the corruption game. He lists them, in this order, as the politician, the bureaucrat, the businessman and the criminal. There is little that can be done about the criminal but there is much that can be done to control the other three and the way to do it is through privatisation. So, can we all please start listening carefully to what Arun Jaitley is saying over and over and over again? Last week, I interviewed him for a television programme and no sooner did I mention the magic word disinvestment (our euphemism for privatisation) than he went into instant over-drive. Interviewing Jaitley, arguably Mr Vajpayee’s best, young Minister, is at the best of times a difficult task because interrupting him when he is in full flow is like interrupting a stream of consciousness, but when it comes to disinvestment he is unstoppable. He tells you that privatisation is not just necessary but vital unless we want to sit back and watch the gradual collapse of the public sector companies we have spent hundreds of thousands of crores. He goes on to tell you that this is the first government that has come up with a proper road map for how we should go about the business of privatisation and then points out that unless we move fast we could find the value of public sector companies going down dramatically so that they might one day have to be sold for less than they are worth. So what is stopping him? Why has he managed so far to privatise only Modern Foods? The answer, alas, is that even if the government is fully committed to privatisation it appears to face a variety of roadblocks put up by politicians, bureaucrats and the mighty, supposedly cultural organisation, called the RSS. The Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s opposition is, perhaps, the most absurd of the lot since it is based not on vested interest or economic consideration but on the spurious contention that privatisation is against the national interest. For a while now the RSS, whose power over the BJP needs no reiteration, has brought economics into the realm of its supposedly cultural activities. Under its auspices we saw the rise of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch whose specific objective was to keep foreign investment out of India. Now, no country seeks foreign investment if it has enough money available locally but since economics has never been an RSS speciality this little detail appears to have escaped the notice of the men who lead the organisation. It appears to have similarly escaped their attention that privatisation of public sector companies will enable us to spend our money better. Instead of pouring crores of rupees annually into companies that rarely make a profit we could be spending it on schools, rural roads, hospitals and all the other things we so desperately need if we are to stop being one of the 21st century’s poorest (and most corrupt) countries. The only way to stop the RSS is for the Prime Minister to have the political will to tell them where to get off. He can then use the same political will to deal with those who have a vested interest in ensuring that disinvestment remains only an idea in Arun Jaitley’s head. Heading the list of these vested interests are the two categories of corruption players that the CVC points out: Politicians and bureaucrats. These gentlemen have discovered over the years that even if socialism has not been good for the Indian economy it has been very good for them personally. It is because of socialism that they are able to run vast corporations that may not make any money for the country but provide them with enormous possibilities to get rich. Even one small, itsy-bitsy deal can bring in a few crore rupees and if you are lucky enough to hit upon a big one then you could make enough money to last a couple of generations. To give you only one small illustration allow me to tell you the story of a former Minister of Civil Aviation who came from humble background but hit upon one big deal which transformed his life. Suddenly, he was able to afford several cars, properties in posh Delhi colonies, expensive jewellery for the wife and even to send his son to one of the most expensive schools in the world. He was later investigated by the CBI for corruption but since the wheels of justice in India move with notorious slowness he has been able to carry on with his political career much as if nothing happened. The potential to make this kind of money would be considerably lessened if the government gave up its business activities and concentrated on its real job which is governance. But, without the public sector our ministers and high officials would lose the other perks that running big corporations bring. Company aeroplanes would become unavailable for quick trips to the constituency, company guest houses would become unavailable for putting up friends and relatives and many of those lovely summer holidays abroad would cease. Is it any wonder that any talk of privatisation meets with instant opposition from politicians and bureaucrats? According to Arun Jaitley he has the solid support of the Prime Minister’s office in his efforts to privatise but there is the fact that the BJP is not the only party in power. And, there are constituents of the National Democratic Alliance for whom the very word privatisation is an ideological affront. So, what should the Prime Minister do? He needs, for a start, to lead from the front like Mohammed Mahatir did in Malaysia and Margaret Thatcher did in Britain. He needs to appear regularly on television, along with his Finance Minister, and explain why things like privatisation have become necessary. He needs to hammer home the point that because we spend hundreds of thousands of crores on unprofitable public sector enterprises we are forced to spend more than 70 per cent of our budget on paying off interest every year. Imagine how many villages would get clean drinking water, roads, schools and healthcare if this money were made available? He also needs to point out that by privatising we would end up killing more than one bird since it would hugely reduce the opportunities for corruption. Arun Jaitley puts the case articulately enough but he is, in the end, only a junior Minister and what is needed is real leadership from the leader. |
—The Bhagavadgita, II.8 ***
— Mahatma Gandhi, Young India, October 11, 1928 ***
— Sudarshan Kumar Biala, Yoga for Better Living and Self Realisation. ***
— A. C. Bhaktivedanta Swami Prabhupada, The Science of Self Realisation, chapter VIII.1
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