The Day After Devastation

In a bid to avoid disasters like the devastating Orissa cyclone which has wiped out entire villages and taken a frightening toll of human lives, experts are studying the entire gamut of natural calamities and suggesting the formulation of an effective disaster management strategy. Sharad K. Soni writes about the effort to formulate an effective strategy to avoid natural calamities.

CAN human settlements be protected from natural disasters like earthquakes, floods and cyclones? The answer is "yes", provided India has a well-thought out, integrated disaster management plan.

The devastating cyclone in Orissa late in October 1999, the 1998 cyclone in Gujarat followed by avalanches in Uttarkashi region of U.P., the earthquake in the Latur district of Maharashtra in 1993. All these natural calamities wiped out villages and took a frightening toll of human lives. This an integrated system to deal with such disasters.

Geologists and non-government organisations (NGOs) are now studying the entire gamut of natural disasters and making a joint effort to come out with an effective strategy. A committee headed by A.S. Arya, an expert on earthquakes has resulted in the publishing of an authoritative volume titled. The Vulnerability Atlas Of India. The book provides precautionary and preventive measures for safety of houses and infrastructure against the fury of three kinds of natural disasters — floods, earthquakes and cyclones. In addition, it also contains maps of each state indicating the seismic hazard zones, cyclones and wind hazard zones, and flood-prone areas. It also contains the housing and stock vulnerability table for each district, indicating the level of risk for each house type.

In recent times, India’s susceptibility to natural disasters has increased by the haphazard increase in human settlements. Pressure on land is forcing populations to move to hazardous locations. Unplanned growth, faulty building designs, high-rise apartments and deforestation have all compounded the risk of natural hazards.

Says A.K. Bhandari, director, Geological Survey of India, "The role of earth scientists here is crucial. Environmental problems arising out of hazardous development cannot be resolved through an engineering solution or through administrative or legislative action alone. The scientific view becomes paramount here."

Terrain evaluation is important in any environmental assessment. In addition, certain health hazards which have a direct link with the prevalent geological set up are also vital in an appraisal study.

The Geological Survey of India (GSI) is a vast repository of data bases on rocks, sediments, soils and other earth substances in various regions of India. Says Bhandari, "In GSI we undertake environmental evaluation of a number of eco-fragile areas taking into account their susceptibility to landslides, floods, cyclones and earthquakes and suggest ways of preventing them."

Though several studies are being conducted on minimising the severity of natural disasters and safe human settlement, what is lacking is an administrative and political will to implement them. According to Anshu Sharma, a former programme director of Seeds an NGO involved in disaster management, whenever a natural calamity like the cyclone in Orissa occurs, what is observed is a total lack of preparedness. This has become a major area of concern both for the victims as well as scientists. In a hazard-prone region people should be warned in advance and they should be told how to deal with such disasters.

Adds Sharma, "There must be two kinds of preparedness. One is passive preparedness in which people should be told of the risk potential of their area and second and more importantly there should be active preparedness in which a community most have its emergency systems in place to deal with a natural calamity."

However, the fact is that authorities have seldom worked towards the implementation of a disaster management plan. Unchecked and rampant habitation continues, sometimes due to the ignorance (and mostly) with the connivance of the local authorities.

Take the case of Orissa in 1999 and Gujarat in 1998, where thousands of people were rendered homeless and many perished due to the cyclones. The tragedies could have been averted had people been warned in advance. Such a lapse should be unthinkable consideration that India is one of the five Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the world. That means it is responsible for issuing warnings about natural calamities not only in India but in the entire region.

Or take the case of the Himalayas, the world’s most populated mountain range. The eco-fragile lower regions in Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh have seen a rash of tourism and hotels and resorts have kept pace with the growing crowd of vacationeers. There seems scant concern for studying the geological set-up of the terrain before rushing in with the tourism infrastructure.

Human settlements, ceaseless deforestation and rampant construction activities have changed the geological balance in many hilly areas of Himachal and U.P. and they have become prone to landslides and flash floods. Even the grim tragedy of 1998 when over 400 people were killed and 12 villages wiped out in the Kumaon, Pithoragarh and Uttarkashi districts of Uttar Pradesh due to a series of mud avalanches, has failed to activate the authorities into taking any concrete, has failed to activate the authorities into taking any concrete risk management steps.

Says Anshu Sharma, "The effectiveness of a mechanism to deal with an emergency situation depends on accurate forecasting, repeated weather warnings, co-ordination various agencies, the speed of response and many more such factors." Very little has been done in this direction even after the tragedy.

Experts say that landslide hazards can be prevented to a great extent through detailed geological studies done well in advance. Says GSI’s Bhandari, "Like the environment, the earth science processes also have to be continuous monitored."

In a densely populated country like India, the issue of human misery due to disasters is becoming so alarming that unless proper management systems are worked out, such tragedies will keep recurring with a dismal monotony. Most experts are of the view that disaster management has been a neglected area with a large number of agencies sharing the responsibility in an uncoordinated manner. What is missing is a unified approach where one single agency is accountable for it.

Says Sharma, "The problem is that India does not have any kind of central policy to deal with emergencies and disasters. Secondly, people who really come forward are from the voluntary sector but this sector is still not properly organised and its efforts are not linked to the government approach.

Basically, it results in a fire-fighting approach whenever a disaster occurs whereas the need of the hour is a participatory disaster management plan.

The integrated disaster management plan must fix specific jobs to all concerned organisations. "The plan has to go down from local authority level to the wards and even neighbourhoods where awareness committee need to be put to work for inculcating a response culture," says Sharma and adds, "on the other end the scale, systems have to be put in place where neighbouring states can be depended upon for support as a second line of defence."

Seeds has a strategic partnership with the government’s National Centre for Disaster Management and is in the process of initiating a detailed documentation project on the Gujarat cyclone of June 1998. This is being done in collaboration with the Disaster Mitigating Institute, Ahmedabad and is being supported by the Natural Disaster Management Division of the Ministry of Agriculture.

In natural calamities the role of the state government becomes paramount. But, says Sharma, "In most cases we find that the response is not as strong and alert as it really to be. The importance of preparedness for any eventually has really not sunk in at the level of most state governments."

However, there are some exceptions. Andhra Pradesh has become very concerned and conscious because of periodic cyclones and a number of NGOs have devised workable disaster management plans. The government encourages NGOs to undertake research projects and also involves them at the policy level.

On an all-India basis, the GSI has generated regional landslide zonation and seismic hazard maps for parts of the country. It is also preparing site specific maps whenever planners require them. In a way, the The Vulnerability Atlas of India is a proactive strategy for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters if concerned efforts are made well in advance. The Atlas is likely to come in very handy as it deals with safety of houses and infrastructure against natural disasters.

However, says Sharma, "All these studies and researches will become effective only if local people of risk-prone areas are involved in planning.

What we should try and propagate is ‘community action whereby people in the area would be educated about the risks and vulnerabilities of their region and what kind of structures would be safe for them."

Indeed, it is only such an integrated and participatory disaster management plan which would be workable and help save human lives and habitat from the nature’s recurring fury — NF