Refreshing realism
MR Atal Behari Vajpayee has spoken with down-to-earth frankness at the closing session of the meeting of the National Executive Committee of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Kickoff and kickback
THE trial of the Bofors kickback case was kicked off on Thursday with a special court finding a prima facie case against four individuals and the gun-making company. All very routine and unexciting.

Corrupt and poorly governed
THE clubbing together for the second time in a row of India and Pakistan as the most corrupt nations of the world is hardly surprising.

IMPENDING WATER FAMINE
Population control can prevent it
by K.B. Sahay
INDIA is fast heading towards water famine. To understand this we must know two things: the availability of water in India and the quantum of water required by the nation.

Regulating foreign investment
by Bharat Jhunjhunwala
PRESIDENT K R Narayanan has beautifully spelled out the BJP’s approach to economic governance in his address to the joint session of Parliament. The statement that the government’s role will be to provide a “strong policy and regulatory leadership” is well taken.

Will govt go whole hog on Bofors probe?
by Tavleen Singh
HOW appropriate that it should be at Divali time that Bofors once more starts sputtering and spewing fire like one of those large fire crackers. How appropriate that there should also be smoke to obscure the light and here all credit goes to Lal Krishna Advani.

Horror piled upon horror
by Amita Malik
ONE of the more positive sides of TV is that it brings tragedy right into our living rooms. Even if some viewers might find it disturbing it at least shakes the rest of the nation into sitting up and taking notice, identifying with the victims and hopefully, doing something, a small donation or some voluntary work on the spot.

Orange episodes
by O.P. Bhagat
IT seemed that he did not like tea. He never had a cup with us during the midday break. Instead he munched some snacks, which he brought from home.

75 Years Ago

November 6, 1924
Not aimed at Swarajists
THE most noteworthy feature of The Times comment on the new policy in India is its virtual rejection of the India Office statement that this policy is not in any way aimed at the Swarajists.

Refreshing realism

MR Atal Behari Vajpayee has spoken with down-to-earth frankness at the closing session of the meeting of the National Executive Committee of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Unencumbered by the party's official responsibilities, he has been able to tell the organisation, like India's Prime Minister, that the time to live in honest coalition culture has to be viewed with realism. Coalition presupposes multiplicity and alliance. "The BJP should try to strengthen its base and widen its area of influence." But the NDA is a distinct entity and it has won at the hustings projecting an agenda for action and a leader to follow. The 1999 mandate is special in the sense that an incumbent government has been returned to power after a long time. (The last occasion was in 1984.) It is not wise to be euphoric about the poor showing of the Congress. But it is quite in order to treat the "janadesh" (people's mandate) as an "expression of overwhelming faith in the BJP-led national leadership". Mr Vajpayee's dig at the "inexperience" of the Congress, however, amounts to rhetorical overstatement because some of his colleagues are more "raw" than, say, Dr Manmohan Singh, Mr Madhavrao Scindia and Mr Rajesh Pilot. The veteran leader's particularly remarkable statement amounts to a severe warning: the "hunger" for development must not be treated as a socio-economic symptom of the malaise of under-development. Time is running out. "The people are getting impatient." Hunger breeds anger and one cannot quieten multitudes with rising expectations by truckling to them at poll-time and ignoring their problems thereafter.

The tasks before the government are clear and the BJP has to take note of these. Essentially, good governance is the anticipated result of a "janadesh" and the strongest partner of the coalition has to reconcile the contradictions of regionalism to the consistency of purpose of nationalism. Regional parties have to be treated with a dignified sense of equality in a tolerant atmosphere. Mr L.K. Advani had done much spadework before Mr Vajpayee came with his final comments. He had taken note of the "actively passive" attitude of Mr Kalyan Singh, and the setbacks in UP, Karnataka and Punjab — and called for introspection along with learning from mistakes. But confidence-building within a political group is not a major factor of nation-building. The "swadeshi" debate has been virtually closed but the ideas of "financial and fiscal reforms and greater foreign investment in high-tech and capital-intensive areas" are difficult to inject into hardened saffronised veins. The passage of the Lok Pal Bill, the creation of the promised states (Uttaranchal, Vananchal and Chhattisgarh) and the fulfilment of the assurances on reservation for the minorities within the minorities and the backward within the backward are difficult tasks. A shield against Pakistan-intensified terrorism and a solution to factionalism within the ruling components have to be provided on a priority basis. Mr Vajpayee has to look at situations like the Orissa calamity and the insecurity of reputedly impregnable establishments in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East. He sounds determined to work for the creation of more employment opportunities and infrastructural growth. He is also conscious of international challenges likely to come up at sessions like those of the World Trade Organisation. So far, it is so good. But wishes are not horses and good intentions have no inbuilt result-producing mechanism. If saffronisation does not degenerate into serial and unsecular or regional confrontations, Mr Vajpayee's pronouncements can be considered to be positively hopeful.

Kickoff and kickback

THE trial of the Bofors kickback case was kicked off on Thursday with a special court finding a prima facie case against four individuals and the gun-making company. All very routine and unexciting. But the development which many expected did not happen and that was a move by the CBI to seek the deletion of Rajiv Gandhi’s name from the list of accused. Home Minister L.K.Advani has held out a veiled assurance to this effect in the Lok Sabha while replying to the debate on the motion of thanks to the President. Congress-leaning lawyers have picked several holes in the chargesheet and former CBI director Joginder Singh is very clear that the late Prime Minister did not profit by even a paisa from the deal.The CBI and the BJP-led government argue that the inclusion of Rajiv Gandhi’s name makes the chargesheet complete since the main offence being made out is hatching a conspiracy to cause monetary loss to the government and he was holding charge of Defence at that time. Without his name the case against others will become weak, so goes the explanation. Former joint director Madhavan, who headed the team which did much of the initial investigation, will not go beyond saying that the CBI has made out a “strong case”. When a reporter interpreted this to mean that it would end in conviction prompt came his denial. All those who have studied court documents share the thoughts of Mr Madhavan that whatever be the strength of a case, it is impossible to predict the outcome, particularly when the offence is bribe-taking. In the matter of Bofors, this is all the more so.

Kickback is a widely recognised illegal act but bristles with difficulties in bringing home the charge. In the Bofors case it will not be easy to prove kickbacks, at least from the papers now lodged with the special court. One, there should be solid proof that Bofors was allowed to make a profit far in excess of what was legitimate and normal. In the chargesheet this is referred to as “causing pecuniary loss” to the government. Two, a share of this undeserved payment should have been paid to those who have the power or influence to finalise the deal. Barring Mr S. K. Bhatnagar, all others sent up for trial are very private persons. This fact also makes them immune to the charge of conspiracy. If they are innocent under international law no country will extradite them. For, the CBI will has to prove that someone have committed a crime punishable in the country where he is living or residing before demanding that he should be sent to India to face prosecution. The mere existence of an extradition treaty does not ensure the deportation of a suspect. It is what Augusto Pinochet’s case in England is all about.

Corrupt and poorly governed

THE clubbing together for the second time in a row of India and Pakistan as the most corrupt nations of the world is hardly surprising. According to the Berlin-based anti-corruption watchdog, Transparency International, India is only marginally less corrupt than Pakistan. It stayed put at 2.9 on a scale of 10 while Pakistan slipped from last year's 2.7 to 2.2 in the annual survey. The anti-corruption body added a new feature this year by conducting a survey of leading bribe-takers and bribe-givers. Both India and Pakistan have relatively clean records as far as paying bribes for boosting exports is concerned. Singapore which has a rating of 9.1 among non-bribe takers slipped to a low of 5.7 in the matter of giving bribes for boosting exports. However, there is no need to celebrate India's "clean record" in the matter of bribe-giving because it is somewhere at the top of the list of bribe-takers! Add to the Transparency's report the latest findings of the Mahbub-ul-Haq Human Development Centre on the quality of governance in South Asia and the picture that emerges is extremely depressing. It is indeed true that while India was celebrating the triumph of democracy [ with the same regularity as it celebrates Divali] on October 13 Pakistan reported the demise of yet another popularly elected government. But the Mahbub-ul-Haq report states that the quality of governance in both the countries is equally bad and largely responsible for keeping them poor. The reason for not being able to banish poverty in India and Pakistan is more or less identical. Rampant corruption at the top is responsible for the economic backwardness of the two neighbours. The Mahbub-ul Haq report, prepared for the United Nations Development Programme, has rightly pointed out that the ruling elite in the two countries is too powerful to be made accountable for the dismal scenario.

Of course, the study has covered all the South Asian countries and has nothing positive to say about any one of them. What it says forcefully is that "corruption in South Asia is widespread and far more dangerous than in other regions because it occurs at the top, is rarely punished, and affects a large population struggling to survive". It goes without saying that when corruption occurs at the top it distorts priorities and decisions on development programmes. The other salient points of the UNDP report are that corrupt money "has wings, not wheels" and is smuggled abroad to safe havens, not ploughed back in the domestic economy and that corruption often leads to promotion and not punishment and the "big fish - unless they are in the opposition - rarely fry". The political class in India has been demanding and promising the setting up of a mechanism for dealing with corruption in high places. The issue has been debated at length in the country's legislatures. Yet, the promised "foolproof mechanism" for weeding out corruption at the top is nowhere in sight. It is doubtful whether the politicians in India would back a suggestion by a top UNDP official that Switzerland and other off-shore financial establishments should be persuaded to stop accepting deposits of ill-gotten wealth from at least the poor countries.

IMPENDING WATER FAMINE
Population control can prevent it
by K.B. Sahay

INDIA is fast heading towards water famine. To understand this we must know two things: the availability of water in India and the quantum of water required by the nation.

The total amount of utilisable fresh water resource available per year in India is about 1150 cubic kilometre (cu. km). Out of this volume, about 450 cu km is available as ground water and the rest 700 cu km is available as surface water. So this 1150 cu km is the total amount of fresh utilisable water that nature provides us annually on which our survival depends. There is no way to increase this resource, but the availability declines in case of a bad monsoon.

Now let us examine our annual water requirement. This need for water could be classified broadly in three categories: (i) domestic need, (ii) agricultural need and (iii) industrial and other needs. Because of our rising population, expanding industrialisation and growing agriculture our water requirement has been increasing annually. For instance, our water requirements in 1990 for the above three purposes were 25 cu km, 460 cu km and 67 cu km respectively and are expected to increase to 33 cu km, 630 cu km and 89 cu km in 2000 AD and then again to 52 cu km, 770 cu km and 228 cu km, respectively, by the year 2025. Hence our total water requirement of 552 cu km in 1990 would rise to 1050 cu km in 2025 AD and will thus constitute about 90 per cent of our total water availability of 1150 cu km per year. Now this would be a very dangerous situation. I say so far two reasons.

First, our total water resource of 1150 cu km per year is not uniformly distributed throughout the country. For example, 29 per cent of our water resource is available in the Brahmaputra basin in the north-eastern region which constitutes only 6 per cent of the country’s area and where only 3 per cent of our population lives. As against this the availability of water is much less than the national average in certain southern and western regions/states of the country. In many southern regions, for instance, the water availability is as low as one-fourth of the national average.

Second, it would be totally wrong to assume that all our utilisable water resource is pristine and potable and could be used directly. The fact is that due to excessive water pollution in India most of our rivers and lakes are badly polluted. Even the Ganga’s water is no more usable at most of the places on the river’s stream. Out of the 80 districts that make up the Yamuna basin, 62 districts now experience high and medium water stress due to the problem of pollution of the Yamuna. In 1997 about 3000 crore litre of sewage water was generated per day in the country, but only 200 crore litre was treated before discharging the polluted water. Industries too are not far behind in polluting our water resources.

Now because of the massive pollution of the surface water and inadequate irrigational canals people are over-using the ground water. There were about 3 lakh tubewells in 1967 in the country which increased to 60 lakh in 1997. As a result of this, the ground water level is rapidly going down at many places in the country giving rise to many ecological problems such as mixing of sweet water with the more saline water below, intrusion of sea water and permanent depletion of ground water aquifers.

Thus we see that a very large proportion of water resource becomes unusable due to pollution; and coupled with the problem of uneven distribution of our water resource, a major part of the country will face an acute water crisis much before 2025 AD even in normal circumstances. But in the case of monsoon failure, it is almost certain that people cannot be saved from acute water-famine leading to all the fatal consequences. And remember that the country has had good monsoons for the past 10 years in a row.

In the event of monsoon failure there will be an acute shortage of potable water as the ground water will further recede due to non-replenishment, and people would be constrained to use polluted surface water leading to the outbreak of epidemics. Mega cities will face another major problem of toileting. Toilets need seven to 10 litres of water for flushing after every use. In the case of non-flushing due to the shortage of water, the toilets will get clogged and become unusable, forcing people to defecate in the open causing serious health problems as there is not much open space available in big cities due to a high population density.

Managing the water shortage will be much more difficult than managing the food shortage as it is much easier to transport foodgrains from one place to another than bringing water from a distant place uncontaminated.

But even if we ignore the eventuality of monsoon failure, the growing shortage of water even otherwise will give rise to several national and international problems. Let us take, for example, the problem of the Kaveri water dispute. The main reason for the non-solution of this old problem is that the need for water of all the states concerned has been increasing due to their growing population and, therefore, each state is constrained to press for more share of the Kaveri water which is evidently not increasable. Similarly, the shortage of water can lead to problems between India and Bangladesh. So what is the solution for this impending water crisis?

If we analyse the data given above we find that about 80 per cent of water is used for domestic and agricultural purposes. We all understand that the need for agricultural purposes is directly related to our population. As we grow in numbers so does our need for agro-products. Hence the amount of water needed for domestic and agricultural purposes, which is about 80 per cent of our total water requirement and this is the direct function of our population size. Even the industrial water requirement would increase with the increasing population. About 50 per cent of the water consumed by industries is used in electricity generation, which is a necessity for domestic and agricultural purposes. Thus the industrial need for water very much depends upon the population. At least 80 to 85 per cent of our water requirement is a direct function of our population.

All these analyses clearly highlight that if our population continues to grow as it is doing now, at the rate of about 50,000 per day, then it is certain that a major part of the country would be in the grip of a serious water famine within 10 to 15 years from now despite a normal monsoon every year. And remember this water crisis will be a permanent feature and will ease only after a decline in the population resulting in the lowering of demand for water. This reduction in population can be possible in only two ways: either people from the water-crisis areas migrate to any water-surplus area — such as the north-eastern region of the country — or the rise in the death rate due to the shortage of water exceeds the birth rate. But the former option would again be not a permanent solution as the population of the north-east would then rise rapidly due to the arrival of people from outside and would eventually become unsustainable. So far we have discussed the situation assuming that the monsoon would always continue to be normal in India.

But in the case of failure of the monsoon in any of the coming years, it is almost certain that the country would be inflicted with a serious water famine which will be extremely difficult to manage. It may be possible to purchase or beg foodgrains from other countries and provide that to our people, but it would not be feasible to bring potable water from far off places and supply it to the affected population.

The southern states of our country are particularly vulnerable to the impending water crisis for two main reasons. First, the fresh water availability in South India is less than the national average as highlighted earlier and, second, the population density of that region is about 15 per cent higher than the national average. So what is the way out to save the nation from the impending water famine?

We must, first of all, stop wastage and pollution of water, limit the excess exploitation of ground water and try to develop and use such farming techniques as would minimise the use of water in agriculture. But even these steps would only defer the impending crisis for another decade or so if we allow our population to grow at its present rate.

It is estimated that the way it has been going, our population would become 126 crore by the year 2016. But even in 2016 AD population would be growing at the rate of about 1.4 per cent per year and, according to experts, it would stabilise at about 180 crore by the end of the twentyfirst century. These are all official estimates and are often on the lower side. My hunch is that the actual situation would be much worse.

But even if we accept the governmental estimates and also assume that we shall stop wastage and pollution of water and the monsoon would never fail in future, still we will not be able to sustain a population of even 150 crore. Hence the only way to save ourselves from the fast approaching water famine is to put a strong brake on our population growth so that our population does not go beyond 125 crore in any case. Though it would not be an easy task to sustain even 125 crore for long, there is no way to escape that now. We will have to bear the consequences of our negligence and the wrong population control policies being pursued for the past four decades or so. If we really want to attain and live a comfortable life and not merely survive then there is no other way but to not only stabilise our population at 125 crore but also to bring it down from there.

But this is just not possible unless the nation gathers the wisdom and courage to administer to itself a bitter dose of compulsory family planning programme. This step alone can now save us and the coming generations from the fast approaching Malthusian catastrophe. Those who still claim that our population growth can even now be controlled by the process of development (e.g. literacy, employment, empowerment of women, better health care, etc) are either misleading the nation or are ignorant about the real dimensions of the problems.

It is true that the southern states are doing better in population control, but even their performance is not enough to save them from the fast approaching water famine. For example, Kerala having already got a very high population density of about 800 persons per sq km — which is about three times more than the national average — will take at least another 50 years to reach a zero population growth rate. And by then its population density would have already reached close to 1000 persons per sq km.

(The author, a professor at the IIT, New Delhi, specialises in population affairs).

Regulating foreign investment
by Bharat Jhunjhunwala

PRESIDENT K R Narayanan has beautifully spelled out the BJP’s approach to economic governance in his address to the joint session of Parliament. The statement that the government’s role will be to provide a “strong policy and regulatory leadership” is well taken. It is strange, therefore, that when it comes to foreign investment the government actually seeks to dismantle that very regulatory function. And in the case of social sectors, instead of regulating private providers of health and education, it continues to talk of government provision. The BJP has some explaining to do. Why should the regulatory function not be extended to these sectors?

The President said that foreign investment was crucial because it brought in modern technology. How one wishes that this were true. The World Investment Report, 1999, has shown that MNCs have not only failed to bring in frontline technologies, they have also positively hurt technological upgradation in host countries. In Brazil FDI by MNCs actually led to a reduction of investments in R&D: “the R&D activities of the local firms were downgraded, and their frontier research was relocated to parent firms’ R&D centres in their home countries,” it has said.

In the same vein Trade and Development Report, 1999, has pointed out that the drastic increase in FDI in the nineties has come from mergers and acquisitions rather than greenfield investment. FDI has jumped from about 15 billion dollars in 1990 to nearly 100 billion a year in 1997. However, the increase was entirely due to the acquisition of domestic companies by foreign investors. Greenfield investment has remained stagnant around $ 20 billion a year since 1990. But that in mergers and acquisitions has increased from $ 15 billion in 1990 to nearly $ 90 billion in 1997. And these acquisitions, as already mentioned, do not bring frontline technologies with them. The claim of the government that we need foreign investment because of the technology that comes with it, therefore, does not cut much ice.

It is true that Indian businessman too have often failed to bring new technologies as was the case with Ambassador and Premier cars. But the fault there also lay with the government’s policy of stifling domestic competition. It is wrong to attribute such “backwardness” to Indian business indiscriminately.

The idea that we need the money rings a hollow bell as well. The present buoyancy in the stock market is entirely due to domestic buying. Foreign investors have been continually selling for the last couple of months. This is proof enough that we have the money to invest should the government remove the impediments thereto. And we are importing gold worth $ 10 billion a year. Thus if the government wants to increase the pace of investment in the country it should improve the environment — provision of law and order and justice and reduction of red-tapism. The strengthening of this regulatory function will certainly yield results.

Regulation of foreign investment too can bring results. UNCTAD says that MNCs can, however, be cajoled to transfer technologies provided relevant conditions are imposed upon them. There is thus a case for strengthening the regulatory framework of foreign investment rather than dismantling it as the government has made it out to be.

In the same way the BJP has jettisoned the regulation of the social sectors. The President repeated the resolve of the government to increase the government provision of female literacy, primary health care, housing and employment generation. Take literacy. Today we have a strange situation on our hands. The private schools fleece the parents. The government schools have a high failure rate. The parents have little choice. The solution was, as the President said, to strengthen the regulation of private schools and get out of provision of education. That would stop both the fleecing and the failures. Alas, the government again develops cold feet where the regulation of social sectors is concerned and harps on increased government provision.

Having struck upon the golden formula of regulation, the government lets it slip away from its hands. Instead of regulating foreign investment, it seeks to allow free entry. Instead of regulating the social sectors it seeks to continue with government provision. The question is: why does the government do so?

The answer appears to lie in the stranglehold of the bureaucracy on the BJP government. It has been a practice of all governments since Dr Manmohan Singh ushered in the reforms to give lip-service to downsizing government while, at the same time, continuing to increase its size. The recommendations of the Fifth Pay Commission regarding pay scales were readily accepted and overdone, but those relating to a 30 per cent reduction in the size of the government have been quietly shoved under the carpet. The Congress and the BJP did not protest when Mr I.K. Gujral as Prime Minister implemented this disastrous step.

Like its predecessors the BJP government is being ruled by the bureaucracy. This gluttonous ghost has to be fed.Deficit financing leads to inflation and endangers its votes. Imposition of tax brings forth a hue and cry from the business. Foreign debt too has to be repaid and taxes imposed for the purpose. The Opposition corners the government on an impending debt trap. Unable to fall upon any of these conventional measures, the government has come up with foreign investment as the solution.

Foreign investment inflows increase the money supply in the domestic economy and enable the government to borrow at lower interest rates and fill the bureaucratic belly. The Reserve Bank of India Annual Report, 1998-99, for example, says “the market borrowing of the Central government far exceeded the budget anticipation. This practice was facilitated to a large extent by the excess liquidity in the system stemming from the injection of additional funds from the Resurgent India Bonds”. FDI has the same impact as the earlier reports of the bank mention explicitly. Had there been no such inflows, the government would not have been able to borrow from the RBI and the ghost would have eaten up the government.

It is this unholy nexus between the social sector bureaucracy and foreign investment that alone appears to explain why the BJP develops cold feet in the regulation of foreign investors and social sectors.

The BJP is on the right track in focusing on the regulatory function of the government. But it lets the golden formula slip from its hands when it puts social sectors and foreign investment out of this regulatory framework. If India has to move ahead fast, we will have to both abandon the welfare state and foreign investment for they are inextricably linked; and strengthen the regulatory function of the government in both these sectors as well.

Orange episodes
by O.P. Bhagat

IT seemed that he did not like tea. He never had a cup with us during the midday break. Instead he munched some snacks, which he brought from home.

One morning I saw an orange in his hand. As he was putting it away in his locker, he suddenly stopped and stood still. So still that he struck me as the life-size statue of a man lost in thought. I wondered if I should tell him.

Just then he moved like one surprised. The orange was no longer in his hand. It had been snatched by another colleague.

“If you don’t mind,” said the snatcher, “I would like to share it with you.” And he began to peel the orange.

“Oh, surely,” was the answer, with (obviously his helplessness swiftly turned into a polite) smile.

In fact, the orange was shared by the three persons, the third being I. It was large and bursting with juice. And more delicious than any orange I had eaten before. Or was it because stolen sugar is sweeter?

Oranges are in season.They greet you wherever you go. In baskets, on barrows and in neat tiers in fruit shops. Their sunshiny look gives the dusty gray of winter around a touch of brightness.

“There is not much money in them,” said an old vendor. “It is because almost everybody is selling oranges these days.”

“How much do you make daily?” I asked, looking at his display of rather small oranges on a barrow.

“Twenty rupees or so,“ was his reply. I asked whether this was enough for his daily needs.

The old man shook his head. Then in a familiar tone he said, “I have two sons who earn quite a bit. They will not mind if I do not work. But I do not want their wives to think that I am an idler. With whatever I make, I go home with my head high.”

Nagpur is famous for its oranges. Vendors swear by that name. For that reason many hawkers merely cry, “Nagpur! Nagpur!” when they mean Nagpur oranges. But a lot of the third-grade fruit is also from there.

No, I am not trying to belittle Nagpur. The fact is that, though I like oranges, I cannot tell a Nagpur orange from an Andhra or Assam sample. All I can say with authority is whether an orange is sweet and nice or not!

But Nagpur reminds me of a juicy tale which a neighbour of mine once told me. It is the juiciest tale of its kind indeed.

Once he was on his way home (Delhi) from the South. When the train stopped at Nagpur, he heard a vendor cry oranges. He thought of buying some. If he did not, he said in his mind, it would be like going to Hardwar and not taking a dip in the holy Ganga.

He called the man and bought a basket of 100 oranges.

“They looked very good,” he said. ”I was sure that everybody at home would be delighted. So I took extra care of them.”

The journey was long. He felt hungry. At a wayside station he bought some food. But it was not to his liking, and he only ate a few mouthfuls. Suddenly he thought of the oranges.

He took out two from the basket and ate them. This sharpened his appetite. He helped himself to two more, and then another two.

“This went on,” he said. “By the time I reached home, hardly 20 were left in the basket.”

Will govt go whole hog on Bofors probe?

by Tavleen Singh

HOW appropriate that it should be at Divali time that Bofors once more starts sputtering and spewing fire like one of those large fire crackers. How appropriate that there should also be smoke to obscure the light and here all credit goes to Lal Krishna Advani. Nobody understands why he felt the need to scatter enough smoke to make it seem like a smokescreen but this is what he ended up doing when he intervened in the Lok Sabha on the Bofors issue. Why did he need to say that the sentiments of the Congress Party would be taken into account in whatever action the government took in the matter? Was it, as some newspapers reported, a softening of the government stand?

A minister, present in Parliament when he made his remarks, said the Home Minister had not intended to sound as if the government had softened. “He was only trying to say what Jaswant Singh said in the Upper House, which is that the sentiments expressed by the Congress Party would be conveyed to the Prime Minister but since he said it slightly differently, the Press interpreted it as a softening of the government’s position. But, there is no softening.”

One of the Home Minister’s senior colleagues was even more forthright. “There will be no softening,” he said firmly. “In fact, the next lot of papers from Switzerland are expected any day now.”

The day after I had talked with the senior minister, I discovered that one of the Congress proxy organisations had already gone to the Supreme Court and appealed against Rajiv Gandhi’s name appearing in the Central Bureau of Investigation’s long-awaited chargesheet. More importantly, I discovered that the Hinduja family had got some organisation in Switzerland to appeal against the release of the next set of papers on the spurious grounds that the Indian government was acting for political reasons rather than in a serious attempt to nail those who took bribes in the deal.

These tactics evoke in me, as they must do in you a weary sense of deja vu. We have been here today, you want to say, let us move on now. We will not, though, unless the Congress recongnises that it is time for the Bofors story to come to an end one way or the other. But, despite Sonia Gandhi’s stand during the election campaign (why no government had been able to do anything about Bofors was because it was unable to find any evidence), it is important for us to remember the “real” story.

The “real” story is as follows. Ever since the Swedish radio station revealed, all those years ago (1987), that Bofors had paid bribes in obtaining their contracts to sell the Indian Government guns the Congress Party has concentrated on ensuring that the names of the guilty never came out. First, when Bofors offered to give the government names of those allegedly bribed, Rajiv Gandhi intervened to say this would not be in the national interest. When angry Opposition parties continued to make a noise about Bofors and demand that we try and get some information from the Swiss Government, a deliberate attempt was made to send the wrong kind of letter rogatory. Instead of asking for details of bank accounts on the grounds that they related to bribes, we sent them a letter rogatory which talked of tax evasion. The letter rogatory was rejected because the Swiss banking system only reveals its secrets when corruption or dirty money is involved.

After Rajiv Gandhi lost power and Vishwanath Pratap Singh became Prime Minister, the first serious attempts was made to obtain details from the Swiss on the bank accounts into which the bribes had allegedly been paid. This was in January, 1990 and to ensure there was no rejection of a new letter rogatory, a government team, consisting of Arun Jaitley, K. Madhavan and Bhure Lal, went to Switzerland to find out exactly how the letter rogatory needed to be framed. It was as a result of this effort that the government was able to freeze six Swiss bank accounts.

Things should then have proceeded at a spanking pace had the V.P. Singh Government not fallen in October that year. The next government in Delhi was virtually a Congress government since Chandra Shekhar’s small band of 60 MPs survived on outside support provided by nearly 200 Congress MPs. It was during this time that public interest litigations were filed in the Supreme Court against the letter rogatory on the flimsy grounds that it was against India’s national interest. With some help from various members of the new government, the Bofors issue was successfully tied up in bundles of legal red-tape.

Then came the 1991 elections, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and a Congress government under P.V. Narasimha Rao took office. We then had the extraordinary spectacle of Madhavsinh Solanki, as External Affairs Minister, requesting the Swiss Government to not take too much interest in the Bofors papers. Despite this attempt at scuttling investigation, the Swiss courts by 1993 revealed that among those who had tried to prevent the names of the six bank accounts from being made public were the Hinduja family and none other than Ottavio Quattrocchi, a close friend of the Gandhi family. Quattrocchi should have been immediately hauled up for interrogation instead he was allowed to flee and never to return.

In view of this endless saga of delaying tactics, it is not surprising that the CBI has taken more than 10 years to file charges. This is why it has taken so many people by surprise that Mr Advani should suddenly be so considerate about the ‘sentiments’ of the Congress Party. Whether he meant to indicate a softening of the government stand or not, this is virtually the only interpretation that can be put on his remarks. Sonia Gandhi, for her part, has kept up the pressure relentlessly. The chargesheet was “despicable” she announced in the Lok Sabha and it was clear to her that the government was acting purely for “political purposes.”

In fact, the opposite is true. It is for ‘political purposes’ that the Bofors investigation has been dragged on so long that nobody believes any more than the guilty will be punished. The Bofors story is not about the victimisation of someone for “political purposes”: it is about how easy it is in India to stand above the law if you happen to be politically important.

If the BJP government, for whatever reason, tries to slow down the investigation at this stage the message it convey is that the law of the land applies only to those of us who are not politically powerful. It would be a bad message to send and it would seriously harm the government’s credibility.

Horror piled upon horror

by Amita Malik

ONE of the more positive sides of TV is that it brings tragedy right into our living rooms. Even if some viewers might find it disturbing it at least shakes the rest of the nation into sitting up and taking notice, identifying with the victims and hopefully, doing something, a small donation or some voluntary work on the spot. People would not have felt so touched about our young soldiers dying such heroic deaths at Kargil if we had not seen their smiling faces just before going off to almost certain death and then the solemnity of their funerals, with full military honours, while their grieving but proud families stood around trying to be brave. It created an affinity which no print media can, so powerfully. Rail accidents have provided the same kind of terrifying visuals. But a pity that there is not a follow-up of such tragedies, as happened recently on the BBC. They showed the footage of three recent rail accidents, including the most recent one on the London underground. They showed how it happened then showed us what follow-up measures the government had taken to prevent them in future. For instance,where a carelessly thrown cigarette had caused one of the worst fires as the wooden steps of an escalator had caught fire, the steps were re-built with non-inflammable metal. We in India would feel comforted if our authorities similarly made public what remedial measures they take after such mishaps, instead of vague mention of enquiry reports, so that the public feels re-assured. There is not enough of follow-up investigation on our media after the immediate event and it is time someone took up the challenge of pursuing them.

In the same way, the full horror of the Orissa cyclone burst upon us as we were shown the aftermath of the storm, the rivers and ponds formed by the rain which followed, the pathetic remains of fragile village huts, an able-bodied young man’s corpse lying face downwards in the thick mud, bulldozers removing dead bodies, as they had to, like garbage. And angry people looting trucks and carrying away bags of rice on cycles, juxtaposed with the armed services doing their humanitarian duties calmly and methodically. Our media, as usual, did splendidly. Special mention of Uma Sudhir, who was the first reporter at Paradip and sent us precise and vivid reports. In fact, Zee also did well, with some exclusive footage earlier from other spots which had suffered badly. Doordarshan’s local reporters, suddenly given their rightful status, were not uniformly good in either reporting or in speech, especially in English, but given proper training and a chance to prove themselves, ought to catch up sooner or later. Years of neglect and, indeed, humiliation of staff reporters seems to have retarded their skill, if not their morale, and one hopes a good corps of staff reporters will soon be built up.

The other tragedy of the week, the Egyptair crash, also loomed large on the international channels. CNN, as usual, covered it in meticulous detail, with revealing interviews with deep-sea divers and various other rescue authorities which left one vastly impressed about how quickly and how professionally such crashes are followed up so that there are no regrets that enough was not done. There is even counselling for the bereaved relatives and protection of their privacy.

There is an intriguing twist to coverage of the Pope’s visit. The main events, some not to be shown on the national channels, such as the main Mass, will go out only on the international channels, presumably to put up a front for the rest of the world, which strikes one as a bit of white-washing and slightly hypocritical. Why should Indians, including millions of Christian viewers, not be able to see what the rest of the world can? In Mr K.P. Singh Deo’s time, the Rath Yatra from Puri, the whole of the Jagannath Festival, used to be carried for hours on Doordarshan while scheduled fixed point programmes were cancelled. TV cameras also visit Janamash-tami, Durga Puja and other festivities without hindrance. One can only hope that news cameras will be allowed to do their bit for the benefit of Indian viewers at home. It may also be recalled, that in the early days of broadcasting, other religions had a day of the week set apart for morning prayers. Now almost every channel confines it to one religion, while the Maharishi channel gives us 24 hours of religion. Where does one draw the line?

75 YEARS AGO

November 6, 1924
Not aimed at Swarajists

THE most noteworthy feature of The Times comment on the new policy in India is its virtual rejection of the India Office statement that this policy is not in any way aimed at the Swarajists.

“The most cogent proof of the necessity for the measure”, it writes, “is the character of the men who have forced the Government to adopt them. Lord Lytton, liberal by conviction and sympathy, has even been accused of weakness for endeavouring patiently but finally to conciliate the party led by Mr Das”

This coupled with the complete absence of any reference to the party of physical force, as distinguished from the Swarajists, can leave no room for doubt in any one’s mind that The Times is no more under a delusion in this matter than the Indian Press and the Indian public.