E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Wednesday, March 24, 1999 |
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Hopes
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EXPANSION |
Time
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Hopes of golden harvest FOODGRAINS production is poised to soar beyond the 200-million tonne mark this agricultural year. Wheat will lead the charge with a spectacular jump of 8.1 million tonnes over last years 65.9 million tonnes. Last year was a bad year and even when compared to the best year 1996-97 until now, the increase is still an impressive 4.7 million tonnes. Half of this additional grain is to come from the larger area brought under cultivation, which means eastern UP and western Bihar will take the credit. Still about 3.5 to 4 million tonnes is because of excellent weather conditions and the longer duration, 140-145 days, which the early sowing variety will have to mature. This should make the kisan of this region and western UP smile. And he deserves the good turn. He lost heavily when untimely rain damaged ripened or harvested paddy last kharif season. What he lost in the swing, he is about to recoup in the roundabouts. Rice production will be the same as last year, slightly over 82 million tonnes. While coarse grain output will slide by 2 million tonnes, that of pulses will go up by about the same margin, 2.4 million tonnes. The shrinkage by about 7 per cent in coarse grain availability will add to the hardship of those far below the poverty line as they cannot afford the costly wheat or paddy. This also brings out the uneven levels of research into and modernisation of agriculture over the decades. Paddy production has tended to stagnate at about 80 million tonnes and the annual visitation of floods is only one stultifying factor. Vast tracks in the Hindi belt, Maharashtra and Orissa still practise traditional farming methods and extension services are lethargic. This explains the poor yield and poorer living conditions. That also holds out much promise. Irrigation water is available in plenty and there is a strong motivation in getting out of the cycle of low productivity and low standard of living. If India is to record an output of 240 million tonnes by 2005, the areas to concentrate on are the present laggard growers. For the non-growers the
prospect of a bumper harvest holds out promise and also a
stiff challenge. Procurement agencies have to not only
raise more money to lift the surplus grain but also find
safe ways of transporting and storing it. The food
subsidy will go up as interest charge on bank advances
goes up. As it is, the foodgrain stock with the FCI is
about 20 million tonnes, more than enough in terms of
operating stock and buffer stock. With the sharp increase
in the sale price, there is a distinct possibility of a
reduction in the offtake. In that case, a higher
procurement will pose more than a financial problem. It
will be tough to maintain the quality of the grain.
Export possibilities have to be thoroughly explored. The
sunny side is the time-tested hope of increased consumer
spending and a demand revival. A whole range of products
preferred in rural areas should benefit as also
two-wheelers and tractors. The Union Finance Minister
will surely join the Agriculture Minister in
celebrations. |
End of ordeal for some WHETHER or not the momentum gathered by the bus diplomacy continues in the years to come, the 57 prisoners incarcerated in Indian and Pakistani jails for years altogether will have much to thank the two Prime Ministers for. The nightmare, which to them must have seemed endless, has finally come to a close. A stint in jail can be a frightening experience to an innocent person even when one is in ones own homeland. It can be simply unbearable if one is in an alien country where just about everybody is out to scare you. Many were tortured, besides being exposed to disease and hunger. Just think of the plight of the person who is also accompanied by his children! Small wonder that most of those who have returned from Pakistan have poignant stories to tell as to how their passports were snatched away and they were coerced into spying for that country if they wanted to return to India at all. There were others who were thrown into mental hospitals. Fortunately, those who were in Indian prisons were treated much better, though even that would not be much of a consolation for one who is separated from his hearth and home. Most of those who got caught in this intense rivalry between two neighbouring countries were chance defaulters. These mostly poor, illiterate people hardly had a chance once they had either strayed into the neighbouring country or were caught while heading towards other countries like Afghanistan and Iran without valid travel documents. That they were innocent in most cases must have been known to the security agencies also but the ways of the police are rough and ready almost everywhere and they had to face inhuman treatment in jails. They must be thanking their stars that due to a thaw in the relationship, the repatriation did take place after nine years. Even when there is a political will to repatriate, there are very many formalities to be completed. In the case of civilian prisoners and fishermen, there has to be a verification of their individual national status, which both countries must accept. While these lucky ones
have crossed over, more than 200 prisoners of Indian
origin are still said to be languishing in Pakistani
prisons in sub-human conditions. The government must take
up their case on a top priority basis. In fact,
resentment has been expressed in many circles that while
India freed 43 prisoners, it got back only 14 in return.
Even if this is only a matter of procedural detail, the
mechanism of release and repatriation of civilian
prisoners need many improvements. It has already been
decided by Indian and Pakistani officials that a prisoner
who has served out his sentence should not remain in
custody beyond two months. If the agreement is followed
in letter and in spirit, a large number of prisoners
should be freed in early May. This could be an ideal
confidence-building exercise to normalise relations
between the two neighbours. |
NATOS
EXPANSION AT Missouri in the USA on the evening of March 12 former Warsaw Pact nations Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic formally became members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Missouri was chosen as the venue to honour the memory of former US President Harry Truman, one of the founding-fathers of the organisation. Statements issued at the signing ceremony said that in the days to come more European nations would become full-fledged members of NATO. These include Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and the three Baltic states Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which had been under the Soviet yoke for nearly 40 years. The addition of new members to NATO would help the Western military machine. They have to shed their obsolete Russian weapons and replace them with modern Western technology and arms. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary had already announced they would spend $ 3.3 billion, $ 1.2 billion and $ 745 million, respectively, on the latest arms to be acquired from the Western nations. The expansion of NATO, with the addition of new members, had been on the cards for quite sometime now. The only dissenting voice came from Russia, which saw this expansion as a threat to its own security. Mr Igor Ivanov, the Russian Foreign Minister, warned that NATOs expansion was a movement in the wrong direction and if the NATO infrastructure came any closer to the borders of Russia, that will undoubtedly lead to a change in the situation in Europe. Russia, quite logically, sees no need for the existence of NATO. After the end of the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact, which had united the East European nations under the Soviet Union, was deemed unnecessary and scrapped. Why should the West need NATO under the changed situation in Europe? Russia also feared that NATO expansion would help the Western powers, particularly the USA to organise and launch air-strikes against Yugoslavia even without any mandatory UN sanctions. Further, it would also trigger an arms race where Russia would finish last. The East European nations, which were totally dependent on the Soviet Union till its break-up, were lining up with their arms lists to shop from the West. This can only hit the economy of Russia which desperately needed foreign exchange. Under the new set-up, NATOs border has shifted 400 miles to the east, creating new frontiers with Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania as well as Slovakia and Hungary, which hope to become full-fledged members in 2000 AD. But NATO has entered into a commitment to defend Hungary, and new members like Poland will now become entitled to defence from the strong nations in the organisation in case of attacks by others. All these changes lead to a new strategic concept from the 50-year-old organisation. Though there was no threat from Russia, the organisation was still doubtful about Russian intentions towards its neighbours. The USA was the motivating force behind the strategic concept and was supported by the UK. The rest of Europe, though not convinced of the US intentions, had to go along. Everyone perceived that major security threats emanated not from Russia but from terrorists, religious fundamentalists and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). How does the new strategic concept work? It is understood that it is heavily tilted to favour the USA and its poodle, the UK, which these days has no independent foreign policy. Most European nations feared that the changes to NATO were aimed to make it suit US purposes, even in areas outside Europe. Particularly in West Asia, where there were major policy differences between the USA and its European allies. The allies also fear that they might become embroiled in military operations in distant regions where they had no strategic or trade interests. Now that the Cold War was over and the might of the Soviet empire dissipated, was there need for continuing with NATO? The West decided that though the power equation was in its favour in Europe, it could not rule out a return to an anti-West government coming to power in Russia. Already, the Communists in Russia were flexing their muscles following the collapse of the Western-propped economy. Many people were under the impression that the nation enjoyed more prosperity and prestige under communist rule. If and when the communists were voted back to power, the West had to think of a new strategy in the region. At the same time, it is also understood that new threats to the allied security will rise in other parts of Europe or even in distant regions far beyond Europe. The enemies would be totally different from the former communist regimes of Europe. They will be motivated by religious fundamentalism or the missionary zeal normally associated with die-hard guerrillas. At the January, 1994, NATO summit in Brussels, the allies agreed to create a Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) where flexible headquarters units will form and lead task forces capable of operating at any point in the world. France was quite enthusiastic about the idea. Like the USA and the UK, it had regional and trade interests in several African states, where any change of government by violent means would have to be resisted by friendly allies. But France had only limited options. Even in the Gulf war of 1990 it could not match the roles played by Big Brothers, the USA and the UK. But NATO was essentially European in concept. Whether one liked it or not, common European structural unity cannot be avoided, particularly after the region had accepted the concept of a common currency. So far, the Western European Union has been largely ineffective but this can change in the years to come. So long, the Tories were in power in the UK, European unity was largely a myth. But Mr Tony Blairs Labour government had been pushing the island actively towards more cooperation with Europe, and the tide cannot be changed. The new UK policy was for strengthening European structures provided they did not undermine the strength of NATO or seek its replacement. Though the USA and the UK viewed a more global role for NATO, the European allies were not really convinced. They did not want NATO to develop a heightened geographical role, particularly in West Asia where US interests were totally different to those of its European allies. France is bitterly opposed to toeing the US line on these issues. There is also an increasing opposition from Germany. The Social Democrat-Green coalition which came to power a few months back would not like to be part of any tilting at the Windmills in distant regions, particularly West Asia. This misgiving was also shared by Italy despite its limited role in NATO. Terrorism is also regarded a major threat to the free world. But here too the concepts differ among the NATO partners. The Europeans did not believe they were favourite targets as the USA, which normally took unilateral decisions in international disputes, inviting the wrath of extremist groups. The Europeans also believed that terrorism should be fought from within and that an organisation like the NATO lacked the means and infrastructure to combat the menace. For instance, the recent bombing of targets in Sudan and Afghanistan by the USA, in retaliation for the bombing of US embassies in Kenya, yielded no results except civilian casualties. NATO members were also keen to check the proliferation of deadly weapons. But they are concerned with the US governments one-track mind of singling out Iraq for economic sanctions and occasional bombings over flimsy charges by biased UN observers that the Saddam Hussein regime still retained the capacity to make chemical, nuclear and biological weapons. The European allies firmly believed that Iraq, down on its knees because of the UN sanctions, was not guilty of this crime. Similarly, it was only the US which voiced its concern at the weapons policy of North Korea. The NATO allies would
prefer any action on the errant states to be handled by
the UN. Unfortunately, the USA has often acted as the
Lone Ranger and threatened to veto any
critical references to its policies in the UN Security
Council. Europe is keen that NATO, like the UN, should
not be dominated by the USA but does not know how to go
about stopping such an eventuality. |
Objectives of US aid policy IT was in Madrid, at a meeting of the 44 countries that made up the new Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997. President Bill Clinton found himself seated between the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the Foreign Minister of Uzbekistan, and directly facing the Foreign Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan. The protocol may have been an accident of the alphabet, but it was symbolical nonetheless. The Euro-Atlantic community is evolving and expanding. It stretches to the west of the Atlantic and to the east of the Urals. The emergence of such a community represents a profound break with the past for all the peoples involved, who have, for so much of their history, been subjected to foreign domination. Most of all, it is the USA which thinks it has a bigger stake in the nations of Caucasus and Central Asia than others around in this post-Cold War period. It is in this context that Russian or even the Chinese interests could collide with those of the USA in future. Russians are found quite perturbed over this with little in hand so far to do much about it. China has been moving steadily with its new strategic considerations in Central Asia. The future is unpredictable. According to Mr Strobe Talbott, Mr Clintons pointman in the South and Central Asian region, only a US success will contribute to stability in a strategically vital region that borders China, Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan, and that has growing economic and social ties with Pakistan and India. The consolidation of free societies, as conceived by the USA, stretching from the Black Sea to the Pamir mountains, could open up a valuable trade and transport corridor along the old Silk Road between Europe with Asia. This area sits on as much as 200 billion barrels of oil. The US government has focused its efforts on promoting the development of multiple pipelines and diversified infrastructure networks to open up these countries, and on integrating them into the global market. The USA would go to any extent to promote this goal. Since 1992 the US government has been providing assistance to the NIS (New Independent States). It has devoted significant resources to this effort over $ 8.5 billion in grants and over $ 12.9 billion in financing through 1996. The declared US purpose for the NIS assistance policy is like this: (1) to foster security, stability and prosperity; (2) to develop constructive relationships with the region; and (3) to prevent the emergence of any significant threat to US national security (Department of State, 1997). Thus, for years Central Asia has been identified, analysed, categorised and understood through the lens of a monocular theoretical framework. Accordingly, US policy analysts treat Central Asia no differently than Central America, Central Africa or Central Europe in that each of these regions is a proscribed entity. The US humanitarian aid to the NIS in 1992-93 for democratisation and market development in Central Asia was directed less at indigenous needs and concerns than promoting US interests. They deserve a closer scrutiny. What US policy makers conveniently ignore is that their strategy brought violent changes within the targetted countries, affecting populations that were already undergoing tumultuous changes socially, politically, economically and culturally. Citizens of the NIS have been understandably suspicious and resentful of the invasion by a conquering army of American military and development experts and specialists, whose programmes were found to be no less invasive than those of the previous colonisers. Historically, the Russian share of US assistance was notably lopsided. In 1994 two-thirds of all NIS assistance went to Russia. By comparison, in 1996 only one-fourth of all NIS assistance was devoted to Russia. It is significant that the US prefaced its policy to the NIS with a partnership agreement with Turkey to provide aid to the CIS, noting that Turkey was an influential and respectful model, bridge and gateway to the CARs. In essence, lacking any social, religious, political or cultural influence in Central Asia, the USA sought to employ its Mediterranean ally in its quest for regional influence. The Success of this policy depended on Turkeys ability to further its own ambitions in the region, not simply as an American advocate but as a would-be regional hegemony as a larger Turkestan, with Uyghur Turks too under its fold, which China would never tolerate if Turkey did not take care. On the face of things, Turkey was an obvious choice for elevation to big brother in Central Asia, but it over-estimated the desire of the CARs to preserve and exercise their autonomy, and it greatly underestimated the costs of achieving the broad influence that it sought to obtain. What the USA, however,
forgets is that unlike the humanitarian aid, such as food
and medicine, democracy cannot simply be inserted by Air
America. This drop-zone democracy has yet to prove itself
as a viable conduit for the establishment of real
democracy. In fact, quite often the reverse is true
despotism reigns under the auspices of stability,
progress and economic growth that this model seeks to
encourage. IPA |
Security and strategy QUITE ironically, one of the biggest gains of the recently acquired nuclear parity by India and Pakistan, is the brightening of the chances of an equitable and fair settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir border issue that has been plaguing the two neighbours since 1947. At long last, quite unexpectedly and suddenly, the possession of a minimum nuclear deterrent by the two sides, has overnight reduced the chances of a conventional war on our north-western borders. Provided, of course, that the policy planners in the two countries view their nuclear weapon status as a means to bringing peace to the subcontinent, and not, as additional munition for another diplomatic sparring bout. To those, who have a working knowledge of nuclear weaponry and warfare, it would be abundantly clear that often it might be easier to make the bomb, than to mastering the art of the how and the when of using it, if rarest of the rare contingencies is thrust upon India. A complete new nuclear doctrine, infrastructure and establishment and not the least a viable (and tested out) delivery system are some of the essential ingredients of waging a successful war in this context. Do we have all these capabilities at the present moment in our country? The answer to my way of thinking, (in spite of what our leaders and bureaucrats may say) is a big no, and the same applies to Pakistan, if anything in greater measure. Thus devoid of the bravado and the media hype on both sides, now is the ideal time for both sides to embark upon the Lahore bus diplomatic route, and achieve tangible results in the major dispute on Kashmir, fully well knowing that neither side is in a position (or is likely) to go the devils way, be resorting to the nuclear option. Let us face it. There is no other option really for India and Pakistan but to sit in the shade of the nuclear umbrella which both now have, and make durable peace in Jammu and Kashmir. As far as the world is concerned, Kashmir (thanks to the late Prime Minister Nehru), is already a part of the United Nations agenda. So much so that there has been an active UN interest for plebiscite in Kashmir. One only hopes, readers will realise the implications if ever a plebiscite is to be held, and which way the vote could possibly go. Quite unnecessarily, (and of no benefit to India or Pakistan), a third front could emerge demanding its share in the pie in Kashmir. This must be avoided at all cost, by right thinking men on both sides of the fence. Indias stand on Kashmir is that the territories were legally ceded to the country by the then Maharaja, and that this was the starting point of the Indian Armys fly-in into Srinagar, to take on the Pakistan raiders who had transgressed into home territory. Pakistan possibly seeing a clear one-class majority in the Valley and an old UN resolution for a plebiscite to back it, views the picture differently, and is unlikely to accept Indian control in J&K in the foreseeable future. The detailed Indian view is well known and needs to repetition here. With both sides standing firm on their territorial claims, the only viable solution left is for them to affect a ceasefire on the Siachen glacial mass, and formalise the line of control, LOC, into an international border acceptable to either party, in negotiations which would be bilateral in nature, and in line with the Lahore Declaration and the Simla Agreement. Both sides would not lose face in such a dispensation, and an ulcer that has resulted in a complete fullstop being put on any harmonious Indo-Pak relationship, would be removed for all times to come. The one big advantage that both sides would have in such an arrangement, if it were to come about, is that the LOC is manned by the armed forces on either side, and this makes for easier delineation and delimitation of the entire boundary line. In fact, if you ask me, the LOC line in J&K is already pretty well defined, as compared to the Mc Mahon Line in the North East, where just on this score, we had the Wangdung and the Longju incidents years back. Incidentally, this writer has served in both Ladakh and the North East in senior capacities and talks from some experience and ground knowledge of the two environments. A parallel border road and communication network exists on both sides of the LOC in J&K, thereby facilitating the task of internationalising the border in Kashmir along with the general line of LOC. Yes, there could be serious objections on both sides, to this suggestion. A mature, enlightened and pragmatic leadership on both sides must see the writing on the wall, and aim to achieve what is within their grasp (as a result of the indirect, quiet and inner confidence, that has resulted from the nuclear equation), and make peace in Kashmir. Quite obviously this means in Jammu, Ladakh-Siachen and Kashmir, all the way wherein the Line of Control runs. Both countries are bleeding themselves to death in Siachen in terms of the cost and the casualties to the troops and morale. Leaders on both sides must make up their mind, and as is often the case, not be unduly taken in by the bureaucracy which often has its own strange logic. Visas, passports, visits to and fro between the two countries are just not goof enough in themselves. Yes, these would provide a good start, but the crux of the issue is Kashmir, and there can never be a durable peace till this matter has been addressed fairly and squarely by both sides. We need not too, while we are at it, carry out a resolve to a certain commitment made to the nation, if we find that in the long run, India can give peace to its countrymen. The resolve in Parliament in 1962 to throw out the Chinese from each inch of our territory is still there somewhere in the archives and the books. But are we still planning to execute this commitment. And if not, (and that is not to be unwise in my opinion), then why not mend our fences with Pakistan once and for all, thereby also ensuring with one stroke, a firmer and more united front against China, which as an Asian Tiger, does not take too kindly on any more competition in the arena. India and Pakistan have spent too long a time in fighting wars on Kashmir. India will not accept a plebiscite ever, both sides are not prepared to give up any of the territory they now hold, the losses to the security forces and the rest in the Valley have to be reckoned with, and all this while, the poor Kashmiri Pandits continue to make an exodus from their homes. Do we wish this situation to grow and get totally out of hand. Or can we grab the one-in-a thousand chance, the minimum nuclear deterrent has provided us, to make peace with each other in Jammu & Kashmir. |
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