Exit J. B. Patnaik
ORISSA Chief Minister J.B. Patnaik has put in his papers a little too late and his image as a strong and principled Congress leader has got a severe blow. Congress President Sonia Gandhi had to persuade him to quit his post and then, by all accounts, to plainly tell him to bow out.

Nation’s economic profile
FIRST the good news. The profile of the country’s economy is encouraging. Now the bad news. Harassed Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha cannot draw much comfort from this. This paradox is easily explained.

Conversions in Sri Lanka
REPORTS of growing resentment among Sinhala-Buddhist groups in Sri Lanka against “unethical” conversions to Christianity need to be analysed in the context of the unwarranted attacks on churches and missionaries in India.

MINIMUM N-DETERRENT
by Pran Pahwa
THE USA recently demanded that India should specify in concrete terms the size of its planned minimum nuclear deterrent. The demand was ludicrous and was rightly turned down. But what is surprising is that such a demand should have been made in the first place.

What price popularity?
by V. Gangadhar
THE hydra-headed monster in Greek mythology. King Ravana in our own epic, “Ramayana”. Cut of their heads in battles and what happens? New heads sprout in their places. Even the all-knowing Lord Rama was puzzled before he was informed about Ravana’s vulnerable spot by his own brother, Vibhishana, who had defected to the enemy camp.

US strikes warning to India
By P.K. Vasudeva
TENSIONS are still running high even after the cease of air strikes by the USA and Britain on Iraq. Both countries self imposed a ‘no fly’ zone in northern Iraq. Encouraged by the widespread international condemnation of the missile strikes, a defiant Saddam Hussein has decided to pick up the gauntlet and challenge the establishment of the ‘no fly’ zone.

New militants’ body in
the limelight
By Baby Thomas
THE murder of Fakir Uppapa, a so-called godman (Sidhan), has brought the activities of a relatively new organisation, the National Development Front (NDF), also referred to as National Defence Force, under scrutiny. Though the NDF has been claiming that it is an organisation solely devoted to social and cultural work, the police firmly believe that it is engaged in fundamentalist activities.

It’s my life ...
by Anjali Majumdar
“MOM, this is my T-shirt, and this is my life. I’m gonna live it the way I want. Otherwise I can’t take the pressure.” Vivek was not yet five when he said that to his mother who had just admonished him for tugging at the neckline of his T-shirt.

75 Years Ago

Calcutta orphanage collapse
AT the inquest into the death of the boy who was killed in the collapse of the Calcutta Mahommedan Orphanage, the jury returned a unanimous verdict that the death was due to the collapse of a portion of the orphanage, that the cause of the collapse was the removal of the central beam on the third storey.

Exit J. B. Patnaik

ORISSA Chief Minister J.B. Patnaik has put in his papers a little too late and his image as a strong and principled Congress leader has got a severe blow. Congress President Sonia Gandhi had to persuade him to quit his post and then, by all accounts, to plainly tell him to bow out. The idealistic posture adopted by Mr Patnaik and his assertion that he is resigning as Chief Minister owning moral responsibility for the recent acts of violence against Christians do not sound credible enough. Why did he not leave the “gaddi” after the barbaric killing of Australian missionary Graham Staines and his two sons in Keonjhar district? Was not the rape of a nun in Mayurbhanj district an instance which would disturb a man of his reputation? What did he do when two Christian teenagers were killed in Kandhamal district? After going back a little beyond these happenings, one finds a desecrated woman named Anjana Mishra looking for justice and the Chief Minister trying to explain away what had happened to the already tortured person. Patnaiks are incidental factors in Orissa, which is a land of highly tradition-bound people for whom food has been scarce and health measures almost non-existent for the past several years. Kalahandi has become a metaphor for hunger and anger. Sandwiched between tense Bihar and rather unstable West Bengal, Orissa has been looking for material help and spiritual sustenance. Mr Patnaik has been the dispenser of destiny for an uncared for flock for a long time. There is no doubt that the Congress has not forgotten its secular tenets in and around Orissa even when it has faced electoral routs repeatedly. The party leadership has kept the flame of human dignity alive.

The denigration of Mr Patnaik must not be treated as the exoneration of the belligerent and communal political activists getting inspiration from places in Gujarat and Kerala. The state is gripped by fear psychosis. The minorities, in their numerical strength, are not a negligible section of the vote bank. This is one of the reasons why they should not be neglected even by the most thoughtless leader of the ruling party. The truth is bound to come out. All the criminal cases are being probed by the authorities concerned. There is no room for nonchalance. The law and order machinery has broken down but it is not impossible to salvage the prestige of tranquil although impoverished Orissa. Mr Patnaik has survived in the vainglorious seat for almost 12 years. Mrs Sonia Gandhi should have sacked him months ago. The Congress stands in a tottering and fractured form in Orissa. It cannot take more jolts. State Congress President Hemananda Biswal is unable to keep the party outfit together. Deputy Chief Minister Basant Kumar Biswal is known as a dissident and he has a considerable following within the Congress and beyond. Mr Patnaik should not have made the mistake of looking complacent amidst threats to his position and the breakdown of the law and order apparatus. Mr Keshubhai Patel of Gujarat could not escape sharp criticism for his failure on the secular front. He is on daily probation in his fiefdom. Many Titans down the ages had to light their own pyres because of the lack of foresight — and arrogance. It is better to be nearer to history than to office. The task of choosing a competent successor to Mr Patnaik could not be easy. The next Chief Minister will have a difficult legacy and many stains on the government’s apparel to wash.

Nation’s economic profile

FIRST the good news. The profile of the country’s economy is encouraging. Now the bad news. Harassed Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha cannot draw much comfort from this. This paradox is easily explained. The figures released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on Tuesday relate to the country as a whole, while Mr Sinha has to grapple with the formidable problems of government finances. That is why the pleasing figures of the CSO will offer no relief to the Minister who has to contend with ballooning expenditure and shrinking revenue and a disquieting percentage of fiscal deficit. Take the rosy picture first. Advance estimates of the CSO project a growth rate of 5.8 per cent — that is, the economy as a whole has expanded by that percentage. This is one of the highest in the world, and only China boasts of a better performance. This healthy picture owes itself to a phenomenal rise of 5.3 per cent in agricultural output, not foodgrains alone. Wheat production has gone up by 4.9 per cent but paddy has come down marginally. One explanation though. The rate for wheat is a comparison with the previous year, 1997-98, when there was a decline of nearly 5 per cent. In other words, wheat harvest has yielded the same as in 1996-97, around 67 million tonnes. Kharif paddy was a disappointment, thanks to untimely rain in Punjab and Haryana and devastating floods in north and east India. What has, however, helped a healthy rise in the overall figure is the sharp increase in the yield of pulses, oilseed and cotton. One comment. This year the country, actually Punjab, has exported so far more than 2.3 million tonnes of rice and if something were to go wrong with the rabi crop elsewhere in the country, there will be a steep increase in the open market price in the months to come. The recent increase in the rate of fair price shop grains will act as an inspiration.

The pinkish hue of the Indian economy as revealed by the CSO estimates is due, in no small part, to the new method and content of the national accounting system. The base year has been shifted from 1980-81 to 1993-94 and a number of economic activities not figuring in earlier estimates have now been included. The resultant new-look system should be more reliable and comprehensive. The effects of the revision are all too obvious. The fiscal deficit, once estimated to cross the 6 per cent mark will now remain much below that figure and close to the budget estimate of 5.6 per cent. This is because the gross domestic product (GDP) has gone up by something like Rs 60,000 crore while the deficit has remained the same. Also the per capita income, the notional figure of the average earning of all Indians, has shot up from just above Rs 9600 to Rs 9900 and at today’s prices to over Rs 13,000. What this denotes, but does not ensure is that a family of four, including the nearly forgotten agricultural labour in a remote village, should be earning Rs 52,000 a year! By the same token, the savings rate and capital formation have come down. It is tempting to dismiss all this as statistical jugglery but actually India enjoys a reputation for producing fairly reliable statistics among all Third World countries. The new changes are thus an improvement and not a bogus facelift.

Conversions in Sri Lanka

REPORTS of growing resentment among Sinhala-Buddhist groups in Sri Lanka against “unethical” conversions to Christianity need to be analysed in the context of the unwarranted attacks on churches and missionaries in India. What is happening in Sri Lanka cannot be compared to the sustained hate-campaign of the Bajrang Dal and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad against Christians in India. The Sangh Parivar is following the example of Pakistan where Christian-bashing by Muslim fundamentalists is common. In sharp contrast, the attempt of the Sinhala-Buddhist groups in Sri Lanka is to force a national debate on the issue of “unethical” conversions. Thus far, no incident of violence against Christians has been reported from the island nation. The Society for Upliftment and Conservation of Cultural, Economic and Social Standards (SUCCESS) claims to have compiled enough evidence to prove its case. According to Dr Anula Wijesundara, a spokesman of SUCCESS, conversions were made mostly by groups not affiliated to the established churches like the Anglican, Methodist or Catholic, but by the Seventh Day Adventists and the Born-Again Christian, who use “modern American methods to attract people”. The media too has joined the debate. Newspapers have carried articles on the “insidious” activities of foreign-aided missionaries. Some of the groups involved in “unethical” conversions work under cover as legitimate NGOs involved in humanitarian and developmental activities.

In 1991 a Presidential Commission was set up to investigate the activities of the NGOs suspected to be involved in the business of conversions. The Commission, headed by Justice R.S. Wanasundar, came to the conclusion that “unethical conversions have now become a burning issue and, unless effectively and resolutely stopped, they threaten to disrupt the existing religious harmony in our society”. A point which should not be ignored is that the campaign in Sri Lanka is not against conversions but “unethical conversions”. The issues raised by SUCCESS deserve to be taken seriously because the organisation has itself done useful work in the field of healthcare and education and is in touch with the people at the grassroot level. According to the data collected by SUCCESS foreign-aided missionary groups “are targeting pre-school children, the poor and the sick among Indian estate labourers and rural Sinhala-Buddhists. Bereaved families in worn-torn areas have also been made targets with one highly connected Evangelist now taking a census of families of soldiers killed in war. The organisation claimed that the missionaries in Matara pay Rs 100 for every Sinhala-Buddhist and Rs 500 for every Buddhist priest brought for “instruction and baptism”. The Presidential Commission had recorded the evidence of Christian converts who claimed that they had to bring people for conversion if they wanted to continue receiving the benefits given to them for their own conversion. It goes without saying that the right to convert someone to any faith without fear or favour cannot be denied to anyone. But civil society should not look the other way when religious groups indulge in what in Sri Lanka is being called “unethical conversions.

MINIMUM N-DETERRENT
Defining the concept
by Pran Pahwa

THE USA recently demanded that India should specify in concrete terms the size of its planned minimum nuclear deterrent. The demand was ludicrous and was rightly turned down. But what is surprising is that such a demand should have been made in the first place. The Americans are not novices in nuclear matters. They should have known that there can be no fixity about a country’s minimum deterrent. It keeps changing with the change in the threat perception and is, therefore, not immutable.

The American injunction was, in any case, premature. India could not have given a firm figure even if it had wanted to, because there is still considerable doubt in this country about exactly what constitutes a minimum deterrent. One popular view is that all that is required is a handful of weapons. It is argued that the mere possibility of some of these surviving the enemy’s first strike and then being used to strike at one or two of the enemy’s cities would be enough to serve as a deterrent.

This is a simplistic presumption. If that were the case, the nuclear powers would not have spent trillions of dollars in building up huge nuclear arsenals. They might have occasionally gone over board in their decisions. Some of that logic is applicable to us also. To understand it, there is a need to visualise how a nuclear exchange is likely to take place.

India is already pledged to no first use! We can, therefore, presume that the first strike would be undertaken by the enemy. Unless he has overwhelming superiority in nuclear weapons, the first strike would be targeted against our nuclear weapons. This is a reasonable assumption. If he attacks our cities or other value targets first, he would be expanding his own nuclear weapons while leaving our nuclear arsenal intact. In the end, we would have the upper hand and be in a position to threaten him and dictate terms.

In targeting our nuclear weapons, the degree of success he would achieve will depend on his accuracy of information about the precise location of our weapons, the measure taken by us to ensure their survival and the accuracy and reliability of his nuclear weapons. It would also depend upon the number of weapons he fires at each target to cover their inherent inaccuracies.

It is estimated that in most cases the success rate he could hope for would be between 70 to 90 per cent. In other words, anything between 10 to 30 per cent of our weapons would survive the first strike.

It is here that the importance of the size of the minimum deterrent lies. An enemy is unlikely to fix all his weapons in the first strike itself, because he can never be sure of destroying 100 per cent of the adversary’s nuclear weapons. Firing all the weapons would mean that while the other side may still have some weapons that would have survived his attack, he himself would be left with none. That would not be an acceptable situation.

The principle for determining a country’s minimum nuclear deterrent can now be deduced. The size of the minimum deterrent should be such that after absorbing the first strike, the number of its weapons that are likely to survive should be larger than those that would still remain with the enemy. Putting it another way, the number of weapons constituting the minimum deterrent should be large enough to compel the enemy to expand most of his nuclear arsenal in the first strike itself. The number of weapons left with him thereafter should be less than the number of own weapons expected to survive.

A simple example will clarify this further. If the enemy is estimated to have about 300 weapons, and is expected to fire two at each target to achieve a success rate of 80 per cent, then our own nuclear deterrent should comprise 140 weapons. The equation would be that he would have to fire 280 weapons and, at the anticipated success rate, would expect to destroy 112 of our weapons. In the end he would be left with only 20 weapons against 28 of ours still surviving. Having calculated this, he would not be effectively deterred and would not initiate a nuclear war in the first place.

The perception of those advocating a minimum deterrent of just a few weapons is different. They feel that since the enemy is aware that a certain percentage of weapons will always survive a first strike and that these can be used against it. In a retaliatory strike, he will be deterred and not start a nuclear exchange.

There are flaws in this reasoning. Take a hypothetical case. Presume that the enemy has 200 nuclear weapons against 50 of our own. He undertakes a first strike with 100 weapons against our 50 weapons and achieves a success rate of 80 per cent. At the end of it, he would still have 100 nuclear weapons in his kitty while we would have only 10 surviving.

The question that now arises in whether under these circumstances, we would still retaliate. Bravado apart, the chances are that we would not. It would be sheerly suicidal to initiate a war of terror when with his 100 weapons against our 10 he still retains the capacity to inflict 10 times more damage on us. In all probability, we would seek peace.

It follows that a small nuclear arsenal which is unrelated to the threat would not be an effective deterrent. The determining factors in deciding upon the minimum deterrent have to be the size of the potential enemy’s nuclear arsenal and the success rate he is likely to achieve. That, in turn, would depend upon the level of his nuclear technology. These can never be constant. The size of the deterrent will, therefore, have to be reviewed, whenever the enemy acquires additional nuclear weapons or carries out significant technological upgradations.

In view of this, it defies understanding as to how the Americans could have possibly asked us to define our minimum nuclear deterrent. This can only be done if the threat and technology are frozen at the current level — something that is patently impossible. It is possible that they wanted to take advantage of our confused thinking and tie us down for all times to come to a small figure which would be of no consequence to any of the nuclear powers.

Whatever the reason, we must be wary. Past experience has shown that our country is too prone to making thoughtless commitments in its desire to take the moral high ground. We must base our minimum deterrent on carefully assessed security imperatives and keep our options open for the future.

(The author is a retired Lieut-General.)

What price popularity?
by V. Gangadhar

THE hydra-headed monster in Greek mythology. King Ravana in our own epic, “Ramayana”. Cut of their heads in battles and what happens? New heads sprout in their places. Even the all-knowing Lord Rama was puzzled before he was informed about Ravana’s vulnerable spot by his own brother, Vibhishana, who had defected to the enemy camp.

Today, something like this is happening to the American President, Mr William Jefferson Clinton. His stature as the President is being assaulted almost everyday by new scandals, most of them sex-oriented. Going through the salacious details, one could conclude that the President of the Free World was doing nothing but bedding young women and seeking other sexual favours. Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky are just two names. There are many more. For over an year now, the American media has carried out the most lurid and detailed accounts of the President’s sexual dalliances.

The American media has been having a field day at the expense of Mr Bill Clinton. His actions have provided enormous wealth of material to TV commentators, particularly those who compere chat shows. Those of us who had watched the Jay Leno show on the NBC would have wondered at the possible reactions of the President, the First Lady and daughter Chelsea to the merciless ragging he had been subjected to. The Americans are an outspoken people and do not spare any of their institutions, with the possible exception of the Supreme Court. The White House, the State Department, the Pentagon and every other government agency have come under scrutiny and have been ridiculed both on TV and in the print media. But the treatment meted out to President Clinton has been something special. And of course, he deserved every bit of it!

But Mr Clinton has turned out to be a great survivor. One of the controversies raging in the USA is about Mr Clinton’s ability to ride out the current crisis, and his popularity ratings which have gone sky high! Noted columnist William Safire recently wrote: “there must be something... to explain the incredible attachment of this great nation to this ungreat man and widespread affection for his likeable lame duck liar.” Americans wondered at the unabashed support the President continued to receive from his friends, aides, lawyers, the average Americans, and, of course his wife, Hillary. The President’s former business associates had gone to jail rather than implicate their friend, and Attorney-General Janet Reno risked her professional career by refusing to order inquiries into her boss’s campaign finance malpractices.

That is not all. American women, by and large, have stood by their leader. They have appreciated the fact that no other President had done so much for women in the matter of appointing them to high posts in the government. The government’s topmost civilian job, that of the Secretary of State, is held by a woman, Madeleine Albright. The highly divorce-prone American women were impressed with Hillary’s wifely loyalty and active defence of her playboy husband. This was something unusual in American society and merited much media attention. The President made it a point to consult women from different walks of life before taking major decisions.

Most of the leading American publications like The New York Times, Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times, while accepting the fact that Mr Clinton had to face some kind of censure, argued that impeachment was too severe a punishment. They accepted the fact that under Mr Clinton, the USA had established itself as the only super power in the world. Leaders who dared to challenge the might of the USA, like President Saddam Hussein of Iraq, had been taught a lesson. The President played a significant role in trying to work out a solution to the West Asian crisis and the Northern Ireland situation. Mr Clinton might have achieved total success, but to the Americans the efforts themselves were noteworthy.

The booming economy was, of course, the icing on the cake. America never had it so good. Inflation was under check, jobs were available in plenty and Japan no longer was a threat to the power of the dollar. So what if the President decided to have a fling with a chit of a girl, working as an aide in the White House. Adultery was rampant in the country. But Mr Clinton had apologised to the nation and family; his wife had accepted the apology and even sections of the Church glossed over the affair.

All these factors did not fully explain the loyalty of the Americans to their President. Mr Clinton may not have a “love affair” with his people, sections of Americans hate him for one reason or the other. But it is the inherent respect, awe and affection for the Presidency which has come to the aid of Mr Clinton.

It’s my life ...
by Anjali Majumdar

“MOM, this is my T-shirt, and this is my life. I’m gonna live it the way I want. Otherwise I can’t take the pressure.” Vivek was not yet five when he said that to his mother who had just admonished him for tugging at the neckline of his T-shirt.

As an occasional writer for some newspapers in India — now visiting my son in London, a university town in Western Ontario — I keep my eyes and ears on the alert for such snippets and cameos which often tell me more about a country and its people than a load of books.

The same boy — we were staying over a weekend with his parents in Mississauga — had this to say to his father (who told it to us) one day quite out of the blue: “Dad, I like this house, and I’m gonna live in it with my children when I get married.” “Vivek, this house has only four bedrooms, and there are already four of us. There won’t be room enough for all of us,” “But Dad, you and Mom will go to a retirement home.”

Talking about these homes, there are several apartment blocks close to where my son lives. Most of them are occupied by senior citizens. I pass them on my way to the library and grocery, many of them using a zimmer to get along: others shuffle along as best they can. (“Oh, my god,” said Bev who has just come here from Vancouver to study to be a teacher, “I thought I was coming to a university town full of young people. Instead, what do I find .....”)

Yes, but most of them still seem to have a zest for life judging from those I see in the food court in the plaza: nary a person under seventy, drinking coffee, eating a muffin or some other goody, many of them conversing animatedly with only the odd solitary figure at a table. And usually on Sunday afternoon there is a band, and you guessed it — there’s dancing, and you know who’s dancing, don’t you. The only aspect which is not quite so sanguine — to me at least — is the number of them scratching away at lottery cards, hope burning bright in their eyes.

Here’s Bev again, (She’s a single mother, pretty much down to earth and with a sardonic sense of humour.) “I don’t know what’s going on; every time I look out of the window I see a pregnant woman. Must be something in the air, some virus or something. Who knows I may end up the same way.” And she sure is right; right about the number of expectant mothers. I meet them in the play areas. I pass them on my walks. What amazes me is their resilience. One mother of two came home three hours after her third one was delivered by a midwife. “I was worried about the younger boy at home; he’s not even two.”

Another, having her first baby, chose to come home the same day. She took care to tell me that it was her decision. My own daughter-in-law was back from the hospital on the second day. She is lucky to have me and my husband to help out. The others are on their own. “I’ve got my husband,” said one when I asked her whether she had any help. Their fortitude impresses me.

My husband tells me of a man he sees lovingly polishing his car. “What make is it?” It is a 1958 Edsel. He stops to chat. No, it is not in daily use: it’s kept for rallies and shows. It is in great shape. Spotting the words “Historic Car” on the registration plate, he asks how old a car should be to qualify for this. “Twenty years.” Laughing, he tells the man that most cars in India would be entitled to this accolade.

The amount of trash generated appals me, as does the postponement of potty training of the young; great for the manufacturers of diapers, bad for children and their mothers, and what price the environment. The Chinese, of whom there seem to be hundreds around, give a good example, not only in getting their babies out of diapers, but also in snapping up the bits and pieces of furniture and other household goodies being trashed by those leaving. I reckon I could furnish an Indian household with the discarded stuff.

Here is an Iranian doing his PhD in civil engineering. He is married with a young son. He worked in Toronto for a couple of years before coming to this university town. “Toronto is a big city; people from all parts of the world. I was happy. Here not so good. People look at the colour of my skin. When I go into a room, everyone looks through me, no welcoming smiles. Why don’t they judge me by my work, not my colour.”

I make it a point to make the first move, a smile, a “Hi there”, and most respond warmly. Having said that I must say that I have found people more spontaneous in the public places in the town where my elder son lives outside Minneapolis. More of those who pass by on the street, in the malls, in the park smile at my grandson there than at my granddaughter here in this university city in Ontario. The staff in the shops in the plaza I mentioned are not friendly, barring one or two. The A & P is particularly guilty in this respect, and I have had cause to complain. In general I find that Canadians in the service sector have a lot to learn from their counterparts across the border. For one thing, most of those answering the telephone do not give their name right off.

Having said what I have about the unfriendliness of the people, I must here record that the worst of them all — here I am talking of the people one passes on the street — are those from my own country, India. My son finds that the ones from Pakistan are far friendlier. So where do I go from here. I sign off I guess, but not before saying that my son and his wife do not regret for a moment their decision to immigrate to Canada — and I endorse that wholeheartedly.

US strikes warning to India
By P.K. Vasudeva

TENSIONS are still running high even after the cease of air strikes by the USA and Britain on Iraq. Both countries self imposed a ‘no fly’ zone in northern Iraq. Encouraged by the widespread international condemnation of the missile strikes, a defiant Saddam Hussein has decided to pick up the gauntlet and challenge the establishment of the ‘no fly’ zone. As a result of this Iraqi anti-aircraft guns/SAMs fired on the US fighters flying over the ‘no fly’ zone and claimed to have hit one of the aircraft. This, however, has been denied by the USA. This is another test for Washington’s muscle power in the UN and the sympathy wave building up for the poor Iraqi people, suffering from a prolonged war with the West.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has said the ‘no fly’ zones imposed on Iraq have no basis in international law and has vowed that Iraq will fight violations of its air space with “all its courage and bravery”. This is a serious matter and the UN must act to stop aggression to maintain world peace, as is its aim.

It is surprising that the USA and Britain launched unprovoked missile strikes on Iraq with a view to destroying Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction. How has Saddam created such weapons in such a short time as also when the UN Special Commission had not been able to detect a single weapon of mass destruction? The USA, while launching these strikes did not even have the sanction or the consensus of the UN Security Council. The three permanent members of the Security Council — Russia, China and France — condemned these strikes. Russia even recalled its Ambassadors from Britain, and the USA as a mark of protest. The ambassadors were later sent back, because of Russia’s own economic compulsions.

According to the USA, the strikes on Iraq lasted for 70 hours and hundreds of missiles were fired from aircraft carriers and B-52 bombers. It further claimed that about 90 targets were attacked, great damage to Iraqi property was caused, their defence infrastructure was degraded and they suffered hundreds of casualties, but the USA did not suffer any casualty. The US Defence Secretary claimed that 70 per cent of the weapons were successful.

The USA cannot say with certainty if its objectives were achieved, because there were no set objectives. One version is that the attack was launched to divert the attention of the Americans from the impeachment proceedings going on in the US Senate. The second version is that it was meant to test the updating of the weapons since the Gulf war. The third version could be that it was meant to create disturbance within Iraq against Saddam Hussein. All the reasons combined together may be correct. But India must learn a lesson from this war that it needs to upgrade its own long-range weapon technology to thwart any such move.

This short war has demonstrated that missiles, especially the long-range ones, are going to play an important role in the future wars to come. The developed countries especially the USA cannot afford to risk their forces in close combat with the enemy and suffer avoidable casualties. Capture of territory will never be the aim of wars for the developed countries. But they would like to destroy the industrial as well as the defence infrastructure of the developing countries not toeing their line. The nuclear weapons will remain deterrence for the N-power nations, but ultimately, it will be the missile warfare that will play a decisive role for the developed world to dictate terms to the developing world.

The developed world will try and exercise the hegemonic control by not allowing the developing countries to develop their long-range missiles and impose sanctions on their import of missile material, so that when it becomes necessary to use force those countries are not in a position to retaliate. The missile technology control regime (MTCR) will be analogous to the Arms Act of the USA. The British used it during the colonial era to keep peace and order in those areas.

The missiles used in the present strikes (1998) are much more accurate than those used during the 1991 Gulf war against Iraq. At that time, the missiles used terrain recognition radar and they followed a particular predetermined path to the target. Under those circumstances the ground air defence could raise a barrage on to the flight path of the missiles and intercept and destroy them. The 1998 missiles use the global positioning system (GPS), a string of satellites with reference to which the missile computers can be programmed to guide them to the correct targets. These missiles then can never, be intercepted by the ground air defence batteries. But the two missiles should never be on an identical flight path. The USA in the recent missile attacks has used this system.

Ship-borne Tomhawak missiles are subsonic airbreathing cruise missiles with ranges from 800 km to 1200 km, carrying 1000 pounds of warhead. When launched from an aircraft their range can be reduced and the explosive weight increased. Such missiles were launched from B-52 bombers on the second day of the missile attack on Iraq. The USA was quite sure that the Iraqi air defence would not be able to cause any damage to their missiles or the aircraft, and they did not have long range missiles to attack the US aircraft carrier.

Why do countries resort to terrorism? One of the reason is when the USA become the sole global hegemony, then the countries and the people threatened will resort to terrorism to hit back. Last year’s bomb blast in the US embassies in Kenya and Daresalaam are clear examples of such frustrating moves. There are press reports that Iraq is planning terrorist activity on a large scale and is tying up with international terrorist. Osama bin Laden, accused of bombing two American embassies. The idea of an alliance between Iraq and Bin Laden is “alarming” for the West which fears the consequences if Baghdad gives portable biological and chemical weapons to the Saudi dissidents, said the Newsweek.

The attacks, it is said, would be aimed at American and British targets in the Islamic world. Plans have already been put into action under three “false flags”, Palestinian, Iranian and the “Al-Qaeda apparatus”, a loose collection of terrorists who are said to receive Bin Laden’s patronage. “All these organisations have representatives in Baghdad”, the source said.

The possibility of China using missile proliferation as a bargaining leverage and the Islamic organisations resorting to terrorism as a retaliation to US missile and nuclear hegemonies has been theorised into a clash of civilisations between the West and the Sino-Islamic alliance by Professor Hatington. He has sought to justify the various technology denial regimes of the West on the ground that the West had to keep up its weapons superiority vis-a-vis the other civilisations.

All these developments emphasise the need for India to concentrate and develop its long-range missiles. The Agni and the cruise missile programme have got to be expedited by India. These are required to be developed not because there is any threat, but these are mandatory as the standard weapon system for any progressive nation. In case of any threat from our neighbours or from any hegemonic country in the West India would justifiably be able to meet such a threat with competence. There is also a need for India to acquire sea denial capabilities which will be a deterrent against navies with unfriendly intentions coming close to Indian coasts to pose threats to our cities. China has already got a foothold in the Bay of Bengal after coming close to Myanmar by providing large-scale aid to that country.

New militants’ body in the limelight
By Baby Thomas

THE murder of Fakir Uppapa, a so-called godman (Sidhan), has brought the activities of a relatively new organisation, the National Development Front (NDF), also referred to as National Defence Force, under scrutiny. Though the NDF has been claiming that it is an organisation solely devoted to social and cultural work, the police firmly believe that it is engaged in fundamentalist activities.

All those arrested in connection with Fakir’s murder have been identified as NDF activists who see their organisation as the answer to the Hindu fundamentalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has an all-India network and a long, dubious record of perpetrating atrocities on the minorities in the country.

The cold-blooded murder took place on November 16 last year in broad daylight in the presence of several people who were waiting to have a glance of the “miracle man” who reportedly cured ills, offering them water blessed by him. The attackers numbering 30 arrived in a jeep, rushed to Fakir’s house and hacked him to death.

The police say that going by the confessions of those arrested, it was a well-planned attack. While some of the attackers burst crackers to scare away Fakir’s admirers, others were busy keeping his attendants at bay. Only four of the gang members, including a karate expert, are said to have directly attacked Fakir.

No weapons were used. Fakir was punched so hard on both sides of the chest that 12 ribs were broken. A postmortem revealed that he died of suffocation as broken ribs pressed hard against his lungs.

What was the motive behind the killing? The godman’s fame has spread far and wide-even people from Tamil Nadu came to see him. Along with the “darshan”, Fakir used to give his believers water blessed by the chanting of mantras.

Many Muslim organisations have been of the opinion that Fakir’s claim to miracle cures by offering “divine water blessed by chanting of mantras” was against the tenets of Islam. A popular Malayalam daily had published a series of articles highlighting the “un-Islamic” activities of Fakir. It is speculated that the NDF, one of the Muslim outfits formed in Kerala in the aftermath of the wanton destruction of the Babri Masjid, too, had similar views and this prompted the organisation to eliminate Fakir.

Within two days of the murder the police netted all those suspected to be involved in the attack and all of them reportedly admitted that they were NDF members. The police said they had collected many valuable pieces of information from the suspects’ confessions. The decision to do away with Fakir was taken by the state leadership of the organisation and the task was entrusted to its Shoranur branch, according to the police.

The police also claim that those higher up in the hierarchy also participated in the meeting where the murder plan was finalised. They also claim to have obtained a list of the people who had attended the meeting. Many of the arrested have told the police that they did not know that the intention was to kill, but to just rough up Fakir and give him a stern warning.

Significantly, all the 30 arrested were below 26 years and belonged to very poor families. Though they had only basic education, they seemed to have been well versed in religious matters.

Several fundamentalist groups sprang up in Kerala in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition of December 6, 1992. Among them, Abdul Nasser Madani’s ISS was the most prominent one. When it was banned by the central government, Madani formed another political outfit, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Madani, who has been arrested in connection with the Coimbatore blasts, is now languishing in a Tamil Nadu jail.

Meanwhile, other organisations are also active. In Thirur, “cigarette bombs” were used to burn down several cinema theatres having thatched roofs for screening films considered taboo by fundamentalists. A number of unsolved murders and crimes, including the mysterious disappearance of Chekkannur Moulavi, are now being attributed by the police to such organisations.

Moulavi, a writer and orator who was in the bad books of fundamentalists, disappeared from his house five years ago. One night, two men arrived in a jeep at his house and invited him to speak at a meeting. The Moulavi accompanied them and has not been heard of since then. — Newsline

75 YEARS AGO

Calcutta orphanage collapse
Coroner’s inquest

AT the inquest into the death of the boy who was killed in the collapse of the Calcutta Mahommedan Orphanage, the jury returned a unanimous verdict that the death was due to the collapse of a portion of the orphanage, that the cause of the collapse was the removal of the central beam on the third storey and that the removal was carried out under the supervision of Mr Nagendra Nath Singa, who thus endangered the safety of the building.

The jury in a rider commented on the deplorable conditions revealed as to the survey and check of the building in Calcutta, and they thought the orphanage authorities should have made more inquiries before engaging the Engineer.