P A G E
Tuesday, December 1, 1998
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Tuesday, December 1, 1998 |
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Back
to economic issues
KHANNA
TRAIN DISASTER |
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BJP
dual agenda faces test
Advani
‘ever ready’ to
Gandhi
tunics: Paris fashion |
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Back to economic issues AS a gesture Prime Minister Vajpayee’s 12-point economic package makes lot of sense but as a road map to sustained growth, it lacks dynamism and cohesion. The political meaning is obvious. He is keen to send out a message that the electoral defeat is behind the BJP and the government, and it is economic business as usual. In other words, he wants to dispel the general impression that the poll verdict has weakened his authority and eroded the alliance government’s legitimacy. That is why Mr Vajpayee grabbed the first opportunity, to inaugurate the Indian Economic Summit, to appear self-assured and eager to push through the remaining part of the liberalisation process. What could be a better way than to once again unveil a medium-term plan to stimulate growth and spread prosperity? But he overdid this part. He talked of a 7 to 8 per cent growth rate when the country is caught in prolonged slowdown. He talked of buoyant exports when the country is selling less abroad than last year. Boosting savings to 30 per cent of the GDP? Nearly impossible in these days of inflation and vast unfulfilled demand. Huge private investment in agriculture to bring rural prosperity? The corporate sector will invest only in land and commercial crops and the end product will be to reduce small and marginal farmers to penury and jeopardise food security. The Prime Minister reverted to the romantic view of small scale units as the provider of mass employment. Technology at this level is outdated and the wage structure exploitative. Even his promise of quick reforms in banks will meet with stiff opposition from entrenched interests. The Prime Minister’s
audience perhaps warranted this lavish attitude. He was
speaking to captains of industry and a sprinkling of
foreign investors who love to be assured that this
country is a confident place to park their surplus and
things are moving in an orderly fashion. Still, one claim
of his is intriguing. He has said his government has
“depoliticised” the economic regime, meaning
thereby that he has ended the oppressive political and
bureaucratic control over economic decision-making. This
is not really true and no one knows it better than the
Prime Minister himself. At the two high-level meetings of
his party earlier in the day, he faced sustained
questioning on the insurance and patents decisions. Even
party president Kushabhau Thakre joined the critics and
insisted on prior party clearance of important issues. It
is apparent that the so-called hardliners in the
party’s top hierarchy are trying to use the poll
defeat to nudge the party to ultra orthodoxy. On these
two questions, the Prime Minister has a constituency
outside his party and he can talk it into a consensus.
This is particularly true of the Patent Bill which has to
be passed in this session if the country is to escape
punitive action by the WTO. |
Desert seeks oasis THE Rajasthani electoral mind exploded last week just as atomic devices went off at Pokhran in the womb of the earth on May 11 and 13. The Bharatiya Janata Party has been humbled and its further decline appears to be a clear possibility in the days to come. The victory of the Congress has been historic. Look at the BJP scenario first. Although Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat won his seat in Bali, most of his colleagues, including Home Minister Kailash Meghwal, Energy Minister Ghanashyam Tewari and other ministers like Mr Kalicharan Shraf, Mr Rajpal Singh Shekhawat, Mr Sujan Singh Yadav, Ms Ujala Arora and Mr Rohtas Kumar, had to bite dust. One factor has surfaced glaringly: the BJP heavyweights who belonged to the anti-Shekhawat lobby suffered ignominious defeat. Mr Bhairon Singh Shekhawat will prove to be a powerful opposition leader but one swallow does not make a summer. The people have elected a considerable number of Congress leaders of worth. They can be put into two categories. The first one would consist of Mr Shiv Charan Mathur, Mr Nawal Kishor Sharma and Mr Paras Ram Maderna. The second one would comprise Mr Ashok Gehlot, Mr Natwar Singh, Mr Bal Ram Jakhar and Mrs Girija Vyas. Caste politics worked as usual. More than two dozen well-known Jat personalities were elected and at least three of them have considerable clout. The issues before the electors were projected well during poll time. Corruption, price-rise, the economic mess in almost all departments of the government and the collapse of the public distribution system gave a powerful weapon to the Congress campaigners. The BJP was on the receiving end. The Congress, after several years, had applied its mind to the distribution of tickets. Only a person with a clean image was selected by the screening committee. Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s rallies made a good impact. The poor performance of the BJP government, particularly reflected in the soaring prices of essential commodities, was rhetorically highlighted. There was a visible polarisation among the voters. The Congress and the BJP emerged as the main political parties, leaving no space for a third force. The Congress had promised good governance in its manifesto. Now Mr Gehlot, who has
been elected Chief Minister, has come out with the idea
of publishing a white paper on the
“wrongdoings” of the BJP government during its
eight-year rule. The influential leader has also promised
that his party would act soon on the unimplemented plans
for providing potable water, sufficient electricity and
educational as well as health care facilities to all
sections of the impoverished populace. The right to
information and eradication of corruption are good
talking points. The Congress is naturally expressing its
positive views on these issues. As we have already
pointed out, even Pokhran could not be saved for itself
by the BJP. The Congress is undoubtedly in an
advantageous position. Ministerial berth-seekers are
generally leaving “the final decision” to the
discretion of Mrs Sonia Gandhi. There will, consequently,
be little or no washing of dirty linen in public. All
these factors auger well for the Congress. However,
voters are disillusioned and they will ask their Congress
representatives not to avoid accountability and
transparency in their personal or public life. Here is an
opportunity for the winner and a chance of doing
redeeming service to the composite community for the
loser. Rajasthan is socially backward. Its educational
status is rather low. Its resources remain untapped and
there is a lot to be done for strengthening grassroot
democracy. If the Congress is able to show even a few
positive results, like checking the price rise and
corruption, its popularity graph will look impressive.
Party leaders have made wildly cheerful promises, but the
people know that promises and pie-crusts are not
necessarily meant to be broken. Rajasthan, known for its
thirsty deserts, has been waiting for an era of growth
all these years. |
Straws in byelection wind THE importance of the Congress victory in the Adampur byelection cannot be fully assessed if it is seen along with similar triumphs posted by the party in other states. Its full significance is best gauged in isolation. That makes it a unique electoral achievement. Adampur has been a strong Akali bastion and making it crumble after more than 30 years gives the Congress every occasion to celebrate. The margin of votes (just six) is small all right but considering that the Akali Dal had earlier won this seat with a margin of 16,000 votes, it is a remarkable turnaround. What is noteworthy is that the BSP candidate from the constituency was also a Congress rebel. Had she not been in the fray, the party might have performed even better. Just as the Congress card of claiming to be the harbinger of peace in the State did not work in the earlier elections, the Akali attempt to accuse the Congress of discriminating against the Sikhs and holding it responsible for Operation Bluestar and anti-Sikh riots came a cropper this time. Instead, the resentment over not coming to the aid of paddy growers and increasing bus fares and electricity rates harmed the Akalis. With the myth of the invincibility of the ruling party thus shattered, the Congress is sure to attempt a major revival. It is elated that it has not only managed to garner quite a few Sikh votes, the Dalit voters have also started returning to its fold. Punjab Congress President Amarinder Singh virtually camped in the constituency all through the campaign and even roped in his wife and family members for campaigning. His effort has paid rich dividends and the result is likely to raise his stock in the party at the national level. The sense of bewilderment and shock among the Akalis is understandable. They have not minced words about the effect of the price rise, paucity of DAP and the Hindutva card played by the BJP in the defeat. But the Akali Dal must realise that while these factors did sway the voters, it had itself contributed greatly. The infighting within the party was a major cause of the embarrassing defeat. On one hand, the party was stressing that it was providing a clean administration; on the other certain leaders were starting a whispering campaign against their colleagues in the ministry. This was bound to have a negative effect. While Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal did campaign tirelessly, the party in general was complacent. The assessment of many leaders was that since the voters knew that this one seat is not going to have any impact on the overall situation in the state because the Akali Dal enjoyed a brute majority, they would not like to annoy the government by electing a Congress candidate. This analysis proved to be their undoing. Although one swallow does not make a summer, the Akali Dal would be well advised to analyse the situation dispassionately and learn from its own mistakes instead of putting the blame at the door of its coalition partner. If the price rise and
anti-incumbency factors worked to some extent in Punjab,
these were hardly operational in the neighbouring
Himachal Pradesh. There it was the ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party that posted a resounding victory in the
Baijnath byelection. The seat has been a Congress citadel
for long, with the late Mr Sant Ram having represented it
for a record seven times. Still, his son, Mr Sudhir
Sharma, could not help losing to Mr Dulo Ram of the BJP
by a huge margin of 6,897 votes. This should be among the
biggest margins ever. The sympathy for his father could
not be converted into votes, although Mr Virbhadra Singh,
Mr Sat Mahajan and Ms Asha Kumari etc campaigned hard.
The Congress has accused the BJP of misusing official
machinery but the ruling party has the clean chit from
the Election Commission to show. The BJP is projecting
the victory as a seal of approval on the eight-month
performance of the BJP-HVC coalition. While the Punjab
result does not make any substantial impact on the
fortunes of the State Government, the Himachal one is of
vital import. The BJP is in power on the basis of a
wafer-thin majority and even this one seat provides it
with a simple majority in the 68-member Assembly. Now it
will be a little less prone to arm-twisting by the
mercurial Sukh Ram and his HVC. Chief Minister Prem Kumar
Dhumal is ecstatic that after winning three Assembly
segments of Kinnaur, Pragpur and Bharmour, his party has
wrapped up Baijnath too. Still, he has a lot of
consolidation to manage before his grip on power becomes
steady. |
KHANNA TRAIN DISASTER IN the early hours of last Thursday, November 26, Frontier Mail derailed near Khanna in Punjab. Its derailed coaches in the rear blocked the adjacent line of the rail track. Meanwhile, Sealdah Express coming from the other side rammed into the derailed coaches, causing one of the worst rail disasters in recent years. The death toll has risen to 210. An accident of such magnitude is a great human tragedy sending shock waves across the country. But, as the days pass, the occurrence turns into another statistical unit and will be gradually forgotten except by those who underwent the traumatic experience or whose near and dear ones died in the mishap. And yet, the figures are important, being the index of performance, helping us to analyse and find remedial measures. The Year Book presented by Indian Railways with the annual budget has a chapter on safety. It says that “Indian Railways (IR) pays high priority to safety in train operations”. It talks of the relentless efforts aimed at preventing train accidents. It is a customary piece that appears year after year complete with statistics and the measures taken and proposed to be taken to improve the performance. The railways presented a “Status paper on Indian Railways — some issues and options” on May 27, 1998. It says that “safety has been a management priority area” taking pride in quoting the statistics of bringing down the number of accidents per million train kilometres from 5.5 in 1960-61 to 0.57 in 1996-97. Let it be admitted that the record of safety of Indian Railways is rather poor and the statistics belie the fact that with regard to serious passenger train accidents there has been a marked deterioration. The basic causes are many: dependence on human element, overaged assets, lack of reliability of equipment, technological backwardness and inadequacy of safety devices that could cancel a wrong operation by human failure. These are the endemic features that plague the rail operations. The situation, however, requires a rational appraisal rather than summary indictment of the railway management. In the first place, the
standard of technology and the involvement of human
element in train operations is a function of the quantum
of traffic to be carried. There has been a staggering
growth of traffic on IR since 1951. The freight traffic
volume has gone up by 620 per cent and passenger traffic
by 514 per cent while the input and increase in the
assets for capacity generation has been only about 200
per cent. The increase in traffic has mainly been loaded
on the train corridors connecting Calcutta, Chennai,
Mumbai and Delhi, popularly known as the Golden
Quadrilateral and its diagonals. About 30 per cent of the
rail network carries more than 70 per cent passenger and
freight load. The system is overstretched as there is no
capacity to meet the growing demand. The capacity
utilisation on these sections is of the order of 100 to
130 per cent. This has a great bearing on the safety aspect. The introduction of every additional train erodes and reduces the margins of safety. The gap between the successive trains and the trains running on the adjacent lines gets shorter and shorter. Prima facie, in the present case there was hardly any time for protection or preventive measures to be taken. Frontier Mail left Khanna at 3.10 a.m., Sealdah Express passed Chawapil at 3.09 a.m. the derailment of Frontier Mail took place at 3.13 a.m. and the collision with Sealdah Express from the opposite direction at 3.15 a.m. In such a scenario the failure of the equipment and the dependence on the human factor is out of the question if the safety of transport is to be ensured. Both have their solution in technological upgradation and modernisation which on the one hand improve the reliability of the equipment and on the other provide mechanical and electronic safety devices which could cancel or minimise the effect of human failure. This accident throws up some important facts. First, it was originally a derailment of the coaches of Frontier Mail; the effect would have been minimal, and perhaps no lives would have been lost if a train did not run in immediately from the other side. In the case of Indian Railways 85 to 90 per cent accidents are derailments. And the latest derailment was reportedly caused by a “rail fracture” or a breakage of the rails. The third is that there was no device to warn the other train so that the collision could be avoided. The solution lies in technological upgradation and getting rid of the overaged assets so that derailments can be avoided, rail “fractures” do not take place, and there is instant warning and interference with human failures with the help of suitable technical devices. The standard of safety is related to the quantum and speed of traffic. On railway lines with slow speed and low traffic, dependence on human element and old technology may still be adequate, but not on the heavy duty, fast and omnibus corridors of Indian Railways. This invariably leads to the crying need for capacity generation, not only for carrying the additional traffic but also for ensuring better safety. Indian Railways can no more survive by maintaining omnibus traffic on these busy corridors. They have to go in for the construction of third and fourth lines and create dedicated tracks for passenger and freight traffic on the intensively used corridors of the network. But if the network has to be expanded and technological upgradation with better safety devices has to take place, the priorities of investment have to be corrected. The profligate spending for populist and political reasons has to be stopped so that resources could be used for rehabilitation, modernisation and expansion. The track or permanent way
plays a very important role in safety. A study has
brought out that more than 50 per cent passenger train
accidents take place due to the failure of the track. Of
these, 40 per cent are direct and the rest in combination
with other causes. The structure and the method of
maintenance of the track have undergone a qualitative
change. The track now has heavy rails with concrete
sleepers and welded panels; maintenance on the main lines
has been mechanised. While the life of the track is about
10 to 20 years, the life of a welded joint is 5 to 6
years. Any carelessness in redoing the joints increases
the possibility of a rail “fracture”. The
yearly “thorough packing” and periodical
“deep screening” of the track and attention to
maintaining the correct track geometry and safe moving
dimensions by a manual method have been replaced by
mechanisation, which needs long “corridor
blocks” affecting the movement of traffic. Replacing
welds on the network also is a stupendous task. Allahabad
division alone has about two lakh welds, not to talk of
the rest of the Northern Railway. Again, there are no
benchmarks for safety tolerances like in the developed
railways such as SNCF of France. In case of an accident,
there is no scientific method of ascertaining a cause.
Even the Commissioner of Railway Safety goes by the
process of elimination to ascertain the cause. Track
tolerances are more for the sake of passenger comfort.
Safety tolerances for track and rolling stock are a must
and should be rigidly observed. The maintenance of coaches also leaves much to be desired. The need for intensive usage of coaches for additional services has cut the “be over” time for maintenance drastically, with integrated links of rakes or trainsets to operate more services. The system of maintenance has not kept pace, is anti-diluvian and cries for modernisation. Lack of spares, their poor quality and substandard material compounds the situation. A sample study of Shatabdi Express (New Delhi-Bhopal) undertaken recently over a period of 10 weeks found 23 hanging parts of the undergear — each a potential cause for derailment. The department officer in charge of rolling stock fears higher speeds perhaps because the coaches are not fit to withstand its effect. A senior officer of the mechanical department is reported to have stated that coaches should not be allowed to exceed 110 kmph. That is fine because most of the mail/express trains (except Rajdhani and Shatabdi Exp) are not allowed to run beyond 110 kmph and only a few portions of the track are fit for higher speeds. Statistically, 68 to 70 per cent accidents take place due to human failure. The responsibility, therefore, can easily be fixed on the frontline workmen or those at the grassroot level without relating it to the technological backwardness, obsolescence of equipment and lack of efficient management practices. Rail operators are often forced to flog the dead horse and bleed the system by adopting “permissive” methods within the given framework of rules and keep the wheels moving. It is important that a system which is heavily dependent on human element needs constant monitoring, inspection, counselling and training to ensure the safety of movement by the observance of rules and practices. Drivers, guards, station masters and the staff in charge of the track, coaches, engines, signalling and communications have to be trained, retrained, counselled, monitored and watched. Indian Railways has an elaborate system developed over the last 145 years of its existence in this sphere. But the practices have gradually fallen in disuse. The cadre of inspectors and supervisors seems to have lost self-motivation and the higher management tends to be bureaucratic. A system heavily dependent on human resources can do so to its peril and a greater peril to the safety of operations. The Year Book of Railways and the “Status Paper”of May, 1998, outline a multipronged strategy of improving the safety of operations. These include track circuiting, modification of signalling circuitry to minimise the chances of human failure, auxiliary warning systems for giving advance warning about signals for danger to the driver, machine maintenance of the track, modernised maintenance facilities for wagons and coaches, ultrasonic testing of rails and the rolling stock, campaigns to educate road users, training and refresher courses for the staff. It talks of safety research, shortcomings in the rules and regulations, learning from accident enquiry reports and such other methods. These are pious intentions. But the system is overworked, the priorities are wrong and, therefore, the shadow falls between the word and the deed. Meanwhile, Indian Railways keeps muddling along the beaten track. Reliability of equipment and its failure puts great strain on the system and endangers safety. In 1996-97, 2965 rail failures, 12580 engine failures, 37150 cases of defective wagons, 361 failures of passenger coaches, 3140 cases of poor brake power, 169 failures of overhead equipment, 125259 failures of signals occurred on the system. The number of train accidents was 381, and this is when nearly 40 per cent of the occurrences are not reported and do not get reflected in the statistics. About 25 per cent of the capacity is lost due to these failures. Each of them is a potential cause for an accident. But let no one get away with the impression that the management of Indian Railways does not know the measures that have to be adopted to stem the rot and put the system on the right track. But, then, modernisation, technological upgradation and an expansion of the system are capital-intensive propositions. Indian Railways has uneconomical lines, redundancies of staff, lack of resources and the diminishing support of the state. They subsidise passenger travel from freight and can create little surplus to invest in the improvement of the system. Better safety devices and systems constitute an integral part of the technological advancement. It cannot be a “stand alone” patchwork. Indian Railways presents a picture of contradictions where the “state of the art” ABB engines exist in the midst of the primitive equipment and practices. And while the essential projects languish for want of funds, capital gets diverted to the populist unproductive projects of creation of zones and divisions and the laying of lines with the sole purpose of ensuring and expanding the vote bank of those in power. (The author is a
former Additional Member, Traffic, Railway Board.) |
Women in the armed forces THE Indian womanhood realised its much-cherished dream of storming one of the few remaining strongholds representing masculinity when the doors of the nation’s fighting arms were thrown open for the fair sex in 1991. They indeed started getting the coveted “commission” in the armed forces at the dawn of the last decade of the second millennium after competing with their male counterparts in the prescribed arduous training schedule. The women now could choose a career in the nation’s Army, Navy and Air Force, proving the Victorian age English novelist George Eliot (Mary Ann Evans in real life) wrong. The novelist, who had to
take shelter under a masculine sounding pseudonym on
account of the then prevailing male chauvinism, lamented
that a woman “must take meaner things, because only
meaner things are within her reach.” Enlightenment
since then has ushered in a new and healthier social
order favouring the women. The resultant trend amply
proves it. They have been applying in hordes for the
career at arms which demands not only mental agility but
also man-like physical fitness, an ability to lead and,
above all, a will to make sacrifices. The only
disappointment is that the defence services are not in a
position to select so many female enthusiasts in view of
the limited vacancies in the realm of discipline,
adventure and chivalry. It is not that the women had so far not served in the armed forces. For many years they had already been providing the much needed healing touch to the men in uniform as part and parcel of the Army Medical Corps (AMC) and Military Nursing Service (MNS) even in far-flung inhospitable operational areas. For example, in Somalia, eight out of 10 doctors in the Indian military contingent forming part of the UN forces were women, and they had done very well in those difficult war-like conditions, bringing laurels to the country. In India, besides persistent demands from many quarters for the induction of women in various branches of the armed forces, the issue had been deliberated for quite some time. However, members of the fair sex, in addition to doing yeoman service in the AMC, had already been actively associated with the National Cadet Corps (NCC). A sprinkling of femininity was also present in the police services. Not the least, they were proving tough competitors to their male compatriots in many walks of life. In the light of these success stories, the proposal to recruit the women in officer cadres of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force was approved by the government in 1991 and immediately thereafter the ball was set rolling for selection, training and deployment. The Indian Air Force (IAF) happened to be the first service to admit women within its fold when the first batch of 12 women cadets joined the Air Force Academy for undergoing one year’s rigorous training in mid-1992. On completion of their course they were commissioned into various ground duty branches in June, 1993, with much fanfare. Later on flying and aeronautical engineering branches were also opened for them. A new chapter was added to the IAF’s history when the first batch of 22 lady flight cadets earned their “wings” on completion of their flying training in 1994. Presently they are being inducted to fly helicopters and transport aircraft. The army too has done a great honour to the Indian womanhood by affording the opportunity to the youthful and energetic girls after graduation to contribute their mite in the field of national defence. The formidable odds and peculiarity of service conditions have not deterred them from joining. In the Indian Navy (IN) about a dozen of women officers are being inducted every year into the various branches on a short service commission basis. Initially, they were being taken into education, law and logistics cadres, but subsequently air traffic controllers’ duties were also assigned to them. Like the two other sister services, IN’s executive branch which deals with naval operations and combat is still a far-away dream for female officers. Expectedly the feedback from the units deploying women officers has been good and the armed forces in general are quite satisfied with their performance in the assigned duties. They seemed to have adjusted well to the teamwork and regimented lifestyle of the military, naval and air force stations, thus becoming an inseparable part of the militarised social milieu. But the service tenure of five years is too short for women to prove their true mettle, and there is need to explore the possibility of extending it by another span of five years. (The writer is a retired
Wing Commander.) |
BJP dual agenda faces test
‘NETI’ (NOT THIS) is an expression that occurs in the Upanishadic quest for “brahman”. Ajaatashatru finally tells Driptavalaki about the futility of any partial exercise to reach the truth. The reasons churned out by our contemporary pundits for the ruling party’s electoral setback also suffer from such a holistic approach. They have by and large ignored the cumulative effect of the ruling party’s conflicting agenda on perplexed voters. Onion has only been a symbol of the government’s misplaced priority and reluctance to deal firmly with those sections which traditionally sustained it. People can do without onions if it became scarce or beyond reach. But its prolonged shortage, accompanied by those of other items, highlighted the Vajpayee Government’s unconcern for the common man and inability of his team to set things right. Apparently, none of the election-eve explanations by BJP campaigners for the deterioration in civic services convinced voters. All this seems to have been juxtaposed by the people with a series of what was seen as a bonanza for foreign and domestic business and the ruling party’s excessive enthusiasm to impose its own partisan agenda. Few have noticed the roars of approval from the crowds whenever small-time opposition speakers shouted about liberal concessions to the high and mighty while the people were starved of water and power. This may be a crude comparison, and certainly does not fit in with the new economic philosophy. But it impressed the frustrated. A series of economic decisions made on behalf of the Prime Minister a month before the polls made the contrast so striking. Sadly, the BJP side failed to take note of this public mood. From all indications, the
mass response even in upper caste, middle class areas to
the government’s undue obsession with pushing the
Saraswati Vandana and Vande Mataram has been more
disastrous. Even those generally endorsed the practice of
reciting the Vandana seemed to endorse the view that it
revealed a misplaced priority. The refrain, again, has
been that the government has been wasting so much time
and energy on such matters instead on meeting the common
man’s needs. The last-minute contradictory postures
taken by Atal Behari Vajpayee and LK Advani and others
left even party workers confused. Thus the successful juxtaposition of the BJP’s own obsessive priorities with the worsening problems of the people like unusual price rise, power cuts, water shortage, oil adulteration deaths, etc., had a double effect. Apart from the obvious disillusionment with the government, it also tended to disprove the electoral marketability of the indiscriminate Hindutva agenda. Soon after the Saraswati Vandana controversy cropped up, there were hopes in the BJP camp about it emerging as a highly emotional election issue. This was obvious from the fact that initially Vajpayee himself had championed the cause, taunting the opposition parties for not being sufficiently patriotic and nationalistic. Some had even hoped to seek a mid-term election if the idea spread like that of the Ram temple. The utter failure of the Hindutva agenda to make any wave even in the Hindi heartland was more discernible during the election campaign. Entreaties on the Vandana and Vande Mataram and their disrespect on the part of the minorities and “pseudo-secularists” did not evoke any response from the crowds in rallies. This has been duly established by the election results. Most probably, similar must be the public reaction to the sudden spurt in Christians’ bashing in different parts of the country, absence of any conclusive empirical evidence to this effect notwithstanding. All this has immediate relevance to the ongoing tussles within the BJP and the RSS clan over the efficacy of the Hindu supremacist agenda in the present circumstances. The clan has a record of such bitter internal struggles over the political strategy. After the formation of the BJP in 1980, the Vajpayee line of Gandhian socialism and positive secularism had been made a target of attack by Hindu supremacist hardliners within the clan. Ultimately, he had to bow out of office after his liberal line was abandoned and Advani took over as president. The party had come under similar internal upheavals when the VHP-Bajrang Dal agitation began to catch on among Hindus. The BJP had undergone another serious ideological crisis when the new economic policy was introduced in 1991 under IMF pressure. An influential section led by Murli Manohar Joshi and RSS stalwarts like Sudarshan Dattopant Thengdi had fiercely resisted the liberalisation at the expense of the labour and globalisation to the detriment of the indigenous firms while those like Advani and Jaswant Singh defended the moves. Though an agreed document was adopted, the tussle over the implementation of the accepted policies was revived after the BJP came to power at the Centre. While the Swadeshi Jagran Manch has been silenced, protagonists of Hindutva bigotry had not yet given up the fight within the clan. As of now, they enjoy the support of the RSS and a section of the BJP. According to the hardline advocates, the present arrangement at the Centre between the BJP and its assorted group of allies is a transient phase. It is bound to collapse either due to inherent contradictions or external pressures from what they call the minority votebanks. In either case, the BJP will sooner or later fall back on its own Hindutva-based hardcore support. In fact, an influential section among the hardliners even argue that the best course left for the BJP is to get rid of the alliance politics and earnestly work for the expansion of the Hindutva base even if it meant temporary loss of power. According to them, much of
the vices like indiscipline and infighting for grabbing
position within the party and government could be traced
to the infection from the Congress’ power culture
the presence of a large number of rebel candidates, rush
for party ticket and quarrels during organisational
elections are the symptoms of this spreading virus. Hard
work to spread the Hindutva base alone would enable the
party to stand on its own feet. Compulsions of alliance
politics will lead to more and compromises on Hindutva
and consequent distancing from the traditional support
base. Therefore, under no circumstances should the BJP
play down Hindutva to please allies. Advocates of alliance politics, however, counter this by arguing that the BJP as a political party has reached a plateau, and it could use power at the Centre to spread its influence to new areas. To prove the point, they say that the 1998 Lok Sabha elections had already made “political untouchability” a thing of the past. As many as 18 parties are now being compelled by circumstances to silently accept such policies as the Vandanas. Moreover, practical politics says that if the party is to go it alone in the elections, its strength would be reduced by at least one-third. For some time, the two sides have been following the dual policy of the official BJP following the liberal line and the VHP-Bajrang Dal pressing ahead with exclusively Hindu programmes. It was successfully tried during two elections in Gujarat where the BJP had conducted its political campaign even while Ritambara whipped up communal passions. However, in the past few months, this dual policy has played havoc with the BJP. Instead of simultaneously pleasing both the Hindu supremacists and liberal elements through separate channels, the dual policy has displeased both. The war of nerves by the two sides has also made Vajpayee’s position look highly vulnerable. When Murli Manohar Joshi, with the firm support of hardliners, pressed the Vandana and the saffron plan for education, Vajpayee defended the move. He had even ridiculed the “pseudo-secularists”. However, when protests against the imposition of the two prayers in UP schools began snowballing, he suddenly shifted stance. Both Vajpayee and Advani had apparently come under pressures from allies to correct the course or face open protests. Advani had hurriedly sought a report from the UP Government on the ‘factual position’. The sharp division within the RSS clan is so obvious. For over two weeks, UP party leaders insisted that there did exist such a government order even while the Muslim organisations and political parties loudly protested against it. The party’s official spokesman in UP even called for cancelling the citizenship of those refused to sing the two prayers! Still worse, even while Vajpayee was declaring that there would be no compulsion on unwilling students, the RSS at its Meerut function asked its cadre to counter the fatwa issued by muftis. Shiv Sena boss Bal Thackeray may finally relent on his threat to block the entry of Pakistan’s cricket team. However, the BJP’s firm stand on this has made the schism wider. Notably, the Thackeray threat and the VHP attacks on Christian minorities have serious international ramifications. Unlike the Muslim minorities, the Christians have a better publicity network at home and abroad. Their publicity materials provide elaborate information about the harassment and ‘persecution’. They are visiting the state capitals to explain the position to the political leaders and media. Both issues of Christian bashing and Thackeray’s threat have got wide publicity abroad. The post-election crisis
facing the Vajpayee coalition is bound to worsen the
clash of strategies. The erosion of the BJP’s vote
base would further embolden the allies to be more
assertive in resisting the partisan agenda as it would
otherwise invariably alienate their own secular following
in states. This places the BJP’s dual policy on
severe test. |
Advani ‘ever ready’to release books THE other day Union Home Minister Lal Krishan Advani disclosed that the secret behind his agreeing to preside over book release functions was he did so whenever it suited him. Speaking at a function marking the release of a book “Strikes — How to avoid them”, written by a senior bureaucrat of the ministry, Dr P.D. Shenoy, the Home Minister said ever since the days of Emergency, the concept of “release” always attracted his attention. Mr Advani said after having spent months in jail during the Emergency (1975-1977), if anyone approached him to release a book, he would gladly accept the offer provided the schedule did not clash with other engagements. “After all whenever I hear release, be it be of a book, I always agree”, he said in a lighter vein after the author who served as Chief Labour Commissioner, and is now working in his ministry, thanked the minister for sparing time just after campaigning was over. The Union Home Secretary, Mr B.P. Singh, who has authored several books himself, added that just as Dr Shenoy wrote a book on the subject of avoiding industrial strikes after his stint in Labour Ministry, hoped after his current tenure in Home Ministry, the next one would be on terrorism and how to abolish it. The suggestion also stemmed from the fact that Dr Shenoy is currently engaged in dialogue with insurgents of the North-East, apart from other areas of work. Special CEC-media ties That the Chief Election Commissioner, Dr M.S. Gill, shares a special relationship with the media came out recently during a briefing on the just-concluded Assembly elections. In the midst of the briefing, in his room which was overflowing with print and visual media personnel, a crackle on somebody’s wireless suddenly distracted everyone. Apparently, someone had
forgotten to reduce the volume of the wireless set and
the voice from the other end continued to flow. To this,
the CEC remarked where was the need for mediaperson in
question to keep the set open. “After all you are
not in the National Security Guards”. However, moments later the stern faced Dr Gill disarmed the hard-boiled mediapersons. When a correspondent wanted to know the cost of conducting the assembly polls, the CEC replied candidly: “I am not ready with the answer as I did not expect you to ask the question. If you want I can give it to you tomorrow”. He said and the remark evoked smiles all around for the refreshingly honest approach of the person. PAN hits car sales It is a case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing. While the Finance Ministry has been talking of taking effective steps to overcome the industrial recession in the country, the action by one of its departments is yielding just the opposite results. The Income Tax Department’s decision to make it mandatory for buyers of new vehicles to furnish their PAN numbers has hit overall sales in the automobile market. Car manufacturers complain that the decision on PAN has hit car sales, which in any case has been facing a recession. According to official figures, the overall sales of cars, despite the entry of new car models like Uno diesel, Honda City and the Hyundai Santro, have remained stagnant at the 2.2 lakh point for the first seven months of the current financial year. The problem with furnishing the PAN number is that thousands of people are yet to get the number despite applying for it a couple of years ago. Barnala’s posts cause mix-up Mr Surjit Singh Barnala is a man with many caps. As the Union Minister for Fertilisers and Chemicals, Food and Civil Supplies, people find it difficult to spell out his full designation. Scribes covering his beat, however, prefer to assign the particular portfolio which they handle. So when it comes to covering food, Mr Barnala is referred to as the Food Minister and when the subject is on fertiliser, he is designated as the Fertiliser Minister. As if all these designations were not enough, his colleague in the Cabinet, Mr Som Pal, recently added another status for him. The occasion was the briefing by Mr Barnala on the conclusions of the Prime Minister’s meeting with Chief Ministers on the price issue. The official spokesperson introduced Mr Barnala as Union Agriculture Minister before being corrected by the minister himself. However, the Minister of State for Agriculture, Mr Som Pal, quipped that “former Agriculture Minister” would be a correct description. There was suspense at the media conference with many wondering whether the government was on its way out. Mr Som Pal later clarified that Mr Barnala in his earlier stint at the Centre had held the Agriculture portfolio and his comments were in this regard. Mr Barnala then heaved a sigh of relief. Machine turns emotional? Hyderabad, the latest site on the cyber map, is indeed riding on a new wave. The other day Hyderabadis had chance to experience cyber-clapping. The moment, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee pushed the button to inaugurate the video-conferencing facility in the Hi-Tec city, a thunderous ‘techno’ applause reverberated the venue for a few seconds. Taking cue from the “cyber claps” the audience present there responded with the real claps. Has the machine overtaken man even in emotions? (Contributed by
T.V. Lakshminarayan, K.V. Prasad, P.N. Andley and Gaurav
Choudhury) |
Gandhi tunics: Paris fashion GANDHI tunics have made their bow to the world in the Paris salons where winter styles are being shown. Blouses of India print, handblocked on wood from Kashmir, are another of the offerings. India prints fit right in with the winter colour scheme of rich brown, red, blue and green favoured in a score of Paris dress-making establishments. The fickle fashion-makers
suddenly have switched over from tucked in blouses,
familiarly called “tuck-ins”, to
“tuck-outs” or tunics, which are worn outside
the skirts. The Gandhi tunics reach 12 to 18 inches below
the waistline and follow the lines of an ordinary blouse. |
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