Not by council alone
THE itch to surround oneself with high-profile think-tanks is as old as the Westminster model of government. And as such the BJP-led ruling combine need not be faulted on this score alone.
Merchants of death
THINGS are going from bad to worse in the national Capital. As those running the city government have no time to ensure the safety of the lives and property of the Delhiites...

Fight against terrorism
by Hari Jaisingh
WHITHER India’s foreign policy? Is it changing its traditional course or making a tactical adjustment? What are the new factors at play?

An unrealistic
education policy
by Damodar Agarwal
THE new education policy proposed by the Human Resource Development Minister is not only ambitious but also vague and unrealistic.

Central Asia: the sky is ominous By M.S.N. Menon IF we are helpless today in the face of Pakistan’s long-term plan to annex Afghanistan, we can only blame ourselves. We should have been more savvy about the strategic importance of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Our funny world by Chetana Vaishnavi OURS is a funny world, I swear. You bet it is not? Well, if you do not believe me, go right ahead and find out the truth for yourself by going through these newspaper snippets.

75 Years Ago

President’s ruling

ON taking up the issue of redistribution of seats in the Lahore Municipality amongst Hindus and Muslims, the President read out the letter which he had received from Prof Ruchi Ram Sahni several days back.

Not by council alone

THE itch to surround oneself with high-profile think-tanks is as old as the Westminster model of government. And as such the BJP-led ruling combine need not be faulted on this score alone. But the timing and the context of the two advisory councils set up on Wednesday are hopelessly wrong. At a time when the government is fighting to head off troubles on the growth and export fronts and burdened with a none-too-impressive score sheet, the sudden appearance of the two panels looks like an act of desperation. Is it so short of ideas as to assemble experts belonging to two generations and a variety of schools? Dr I.G.Patel was an economic adviser to the Union Government three decades ago while Mr P.N.Dhar was principal secretary to Indira Gandhi and by common belief the author of the dramatic bank nationalisation ordinance. At the other end is Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who along with the council secretary, Mr N.K.Singh, guided the Finance Ministry until the other day. Then there are the others, all specialists in public finance but firmly committed to one or the other models of economic management. As individuals they will offer sound advice but as members of a council, will find it difficult to come up with a cohesive package. That is what experts are very good at, particularly economic experts.The council on trade and industry suffers from the same malaise but in an aggravated form. The members can offer at best industry-specific and region-centred diagnosis and remedy. And no single policy can suit all industries or all regions; contradiction is built into the demands of each unit or industry. Free import will spur turn-key projects but will damage local capital goods sector. Textile mills will love easy and cheaper availability of imported raw material but the producers of these very petro-chemicals will scream plain murder. Where they are all united is in lower excise duty, assured power supply at affordable (read the old subsidised) tariff, credit at lower rates of interest and freedom to hire and fire workers. They also want larger government investment so that there is more money in circulation and hence increased purchasing power to boost demand, sales and profits. Looks easy and reasonable. But Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha will shoot down these proposals as they will reduce revenue and increase expenditure.

The BJP-led ruling combine should know all these things and yet it has taken the trouble to name the blue chip councils. Why? The most obvious reason is its anxiety to convince the people that it is indeed seriously engaged in solving the problems of growth and trade. The glittering array of experts and top businessmen lend credibility to the government, or so it believes. Two, the announcement of the panels has robbed the decision (taken on the same day) to close down nine public sector units involving thousands of workers, of its importance. That news, which will dominate politics and the front pages of newspapers in due course, has been shunted to inside pages. If this line of thinking has any substance, it shows that the ruling combine is clever but not necessarily fully competent to tackle the growing problems. As everyone knows, what the government lacks is not ideas, but the political will to take hard decisions. No think-tank can supply that.

Merchants of death

THINGS are going from bad to worse in the national Capital. As those running the city government have no time to ensure the safety of the lives and property of the Delhiites in general, so busy they are in settling their factional scores, the fear of law has nearly disappeared from the minds of the unscrupulous elements. The detection of the sale of adulterated mustard oil — the popular cooking medium in the homes of the poor — has come after Delhi acquired the sobriquet, the new crime capital of the country. It is painful to note that the Saheb Singh Verma government showed an indifferent attitude when the first case of dropsy — a deadly disease but not so well known — was reported as early as August 5. If it had reacted responsibly, the situation would have been entirely different today. Most of the 20 or 22 lives lost because of dropsy could have been saved and the disease prevented from spreading on an alarming scale. Now after the intervention of the Delhi High Court one hopes the people will heave a sigh of relief. As it has banned the loose sale of mustard oil, directing the mill-owners to prepare 200 ml packs for the convenience of the poor, the disease is unlikely to devour more lives. It is also quite logical to ask the Delhi government to consider issuing licences for the manufacture of mustard oil so that the guilty can be brought to book quickly. It is surprising that the merchants of death — the adulterators and their collaborators — found the nation’s Capital as the safest place to operate! They appear to be right in their calculations as only two arrests could be made till the court gave its directions!

What is this dropsy, by the way. Going by its dictionary meaning, it is an excessive accumulation of serous fluid in serous cavity, characterised by a swollen sponge-like body caused by a variety of the bacterium called Pseudomonas punctata. Among the symptoms of the disease are acute diarrhoea, weak knees, a bloated stomach and swelling in the feet. Ultimately, dropsy makes the patient’s heart dysfunctional, which leads to death. The analysis of the oil samples taken from different traders has shown that agremone oil could have been used as an adulterant as it is cheaper than mustard oil and it contains a deadly toxic component, sanguinarine. Traces of sanguinarine were found in the cooking oil used by the dropsy victims. If the source of contamination is really agremone, a national alert will have to be sounded because it is a weed which grows alongside mustard plants. It can cause contamination at the harvesting stage itself. But the mill-owners will not be able to escape the responsibility as when a consumer buys something as essential as edible oil, he expects it to be totally safe. It is here that one fails to understand why no action could be taken against the manufacturers of some of the popular brands found to contain the deadly compound. If the Delhi government felt that any action in haste against the guilty mill-owners and retailers or others suspected to have been involved could have dented its vote bank, it must not forget that its image has suffered considerably in a much bigger segment of the electorate. Of course, food adulteration is not something new to us, but the present case is quite grave as it has become the source of a fatal ailment. It calls for action at the all-India level. One does not know at how many places adulterated mustard oil is being sold and consumed.

Fight against terrorism
New foreign policy challenges

by Hari Jaisingh

WHITHER India’s foreign policy? Is it changing its traditional course or making a tactical adjustment? What are the new factors at play? These can no longer be treated as academic issues, especially after Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee’s muted response to the US bombing of Afghanistan and Sudan in retaliation against suspected depredations of militant Islamic outfits. Does it mean a shift in India’s foreign policy thrust?

Instead of an ad hoc response, the whole gamut of Indian foreign policy operations will have to be examined afresh in the light of new global realities and strategic compulsions. India is at a decisive stage of policy evaluation. It can no longer remain insulated from global dynamics.

The questions before us are: what national interests can be served through non-alignment? Can we forge meaningful ties with the USA and evolve new relationship with Pakistan and China? How far can we influence the balance by abandoning “the lazy man’s denunciation” of power politics and learning the game of diplomacy as it has to be played?

In today’s changing world order and priorities, several key elements, which once dominated policy strategies and postures, have ceased to matter. Ideology may still be relevant in foreign affairs, but it is no longer the deciding factor as was the case before the end of the Cold War.

There was a time when South Block was guided by ideological considerations in responding to global developments directly or indirectly affecting this country’s interests. Even anti-colonial sentiments were well pronounced against colonial powers and imperialist tendencies.

This phase was very much visible during the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. A socialist, his ideological moorings were broadbased and humane. He believed in a value system which was both modern and rooted in the country’s tradition. He passionately believed in the concept of pan-Asian nationalism. That is the reason why he took the Chinese along with him. @Nehru believed in the solidarity of Asian countries. The “Hindi-Chini bhai bhai” syndrome in India’s foreign policy in the fifties has to be viewed against this backdrop. However, the traumatic experience the country had at the hands of the Chinese in 1962 shattered Nehru. Certain core correctives followed thereafter. However, freedom from power blocs has remained a cardinal principle of India’s foreign policy.

The non-aligned movement continues to be the corner-stone of New Delhi’s foreign policy philosophy. It is a different matter that during the Cold War years New Delhi was often accused of being pro-Moscow and anti-Washington.

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, it is a unipolar world we have to deal with. With this, the dynamics of India’s foreign policy has to change. New Delhi’s low-key response to the US retaliation against suspected terrorist activities in Afghanistan and Sudan has to be viewed in this context.

A number of new factors have come into play in India’s foreign policy options which cannot be overlooked. First, India today is a nuclear weapons state. The Pokhran explosions in May this year have put the country’s well-known position under severe strain. The American economic sanctions and curbs on scientific and defence collaboration, Pakistan’s counter-response with its own nuclear bangs, the sharp reaction in several world capitals and a somewhat divided response to the blasts within the country have understandably upset the traditional line of thinking in South Block.

There is indeed a period of flux ahead. Never before has this country faced complicated and contradictory problems and challenges as it does today. So, it will ill-serve its interests to be loud-mouthed and rigid. In today’s complex scenario underrating our opportunities will be as dangerous and confusing as overrating our achievements and capacity.

Indian diplomacy can no longer be the same again. It has to adjust and readjust itself to new situations and demands imposed on it by global pressures. What this will lead to ultimately is difficult to say at this juncture. But there is no denying the fact that New Delhi will have to be both realistic and responsive to reasonable friendly suggestions from the powers that matter. Possibly, it may have to concede a point or two and go along with the American demand and sign the CTBT. In fact, India seems to be inching towards signing the CTBT, if not the NPT, to satisfy the Western world. The fourth round of Indo-US talks between Mr Jaswant Singh and Mr Strobe Talbott in Washington is a clear pointer to the partial easing of tension between the two countries.

Second, the economic issue has to play a critical role in the evolution of new foreign policy options. More than nuclear teeth, it is economic muscle that is decisive in international relations. New Delhi fully realises this fact, though it has not been able to evolve a dynamic economic-oriented foreign policy. Economic diplomacy has to be given the prime place to make the country’s foreign policy meaningful, relevant and effective in today’s competitive global environment. Paul Kennedy’s non-fiction best-seller, “The Rise and Fall of Great Empires”, argues that past empires fell when economic dynamism stagnated and military power was needlessly over-extended.

Third, since ideology has ceased to be the deciding factor, the country’s foreign policy has to show a degree of flexibility so as to be guided by national interests at a given time and in a given situation. We, of course, do not expect South Block to blindly follow a set line and take a rigid position against certain countries on the basis of preconceived concepts and old ideological considerations.

At the Jaipur press conference, the Prime Minister was subtle and tactful without indulging in rhetoric. His words were selective but well chosen. He avoided directly condemning the US action and confined himself to the operational aspect of terrorism from which this country has suffered a lot.

Indeed, the Prime Minister was being tactful in identifying India’s common interests with the USA in tackling global terrorism. He said: “I emphasise the need for international action to root out terrorism.” He offered India’s cooperation for any global initiative against terrorist groups. He further added that the recent incident (embassy bombings) justified the need for action against terrorism. “We are prepared to cooperate with any country against terrorism,” Mr Vajpayee said.

The fourth point which becomes the cornerstone of India’s foreign policy is the fight against terrorism. India has suffered because of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Punjab as well as Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, the Kashmir issue has got complicated because of the terrorist activity sponsored by Islamabad.

It is no secret that mercenaries from Afghanistan and other Muslim countries have played havoc with the peace and tranquillity in the subcontinent. This throws up a major challenge to India’s foreign policy. As former Foreign Secretary J.N. Dixit has stated: “The US strike against terrorist bases presents Indian diplomacy with an opportunity to mobilise world opinion on the issue. This is especially important in the context of an emerging new breed of terrorists — young, full of religious and ideological zeal, technically skilled and determined to kill.”

It is again no secret that Asia is the worst hit by terrorist activity with 6501 people dead and wounded between 1990 and 1995. India has suffered terribly at the hands of terrorists.

The message is clear. Terrorism has to be fought tooth and nail. Unfortunately, there has been no proper appreciation of the Indian suffering on the part of the USA. India has repeatedly told the USA that unstinted support to Islamic terrorist nurseries in Pakistan and Afghanistan is bound to be counter-productive. New Delhi has proved right. Therefore, all that is necessary now is to give a logical thrust to global cooperation against terrorism. This will require sustained diplomatic efforts. We need clear-headed thinking and persistent hard work. A flash in the pan diplomacy simply will not work in today’s complex world.

In any case, two overriding objectives of foreign policy are national security and economic growth. The 1962 debacle apart, New Delhi has managed to serve its security interests reasonably well. But the proxy war through exported terrorism requires new strategic responses, and hence the importance of cooperation with Washington.

The USA has to have better appreciation of India’s case against Pakistan’s sustained role in organising terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir — a complaint which Washington has been ignoring because of its continued pro-Pakistan stance on Kashmir.

It will, however, be in the interest of the USA to understand India’s viewpoint, not as a gang-up operation against Pakistan but to reason out with the military establishment in Islamabad that terrorism is nobody’s ally and that it does not pay to cosy up with terrorists and their patrons in the long run.

An unrealistic education policy
by Damodar Agarwal

THE new education policy proposed by the Human Resource Development Minister is not only ambitious but also vague and unrealistic. It says, for example, that education will be privatised, but it will not mean its commercialisation. We have been hearing of this kind of thing for quite a long time now, though no meaning of it was ever explained.

From handing over a chunk of educational management to purely private people to asking the business houses to invest money in it, it may mean a variety of things. When the phrase was first used by Rajiv Gandhi during his regime, the so-called educational experts of his government defined it as “autonomy”. When asked what it meant for everyone to understand, they said that it was freedom to make syllabi, take examinations and award degrees. When they further explained that the business of awarding degrees would be placed under the auspices of some university, the issue was jinxed.

As about 60 per cent of our educational system is already in the hands of the private trusts, one does not know what privatisation will now mean under the new government. Will the schools and colleges be shorn of the government grants? Will the money-minting professional colleges and public schools, which follow mandatory rules and regulations, enjoy exemption from these? Obviously, this would be difficult as the judiciary has already allowed them to have their own norms about “free seats” and “payment seats”.

The confusion becomes worse confounded as we read the published draft of the new education policy. It says that the new policy will be used to gradually enhance educational expenses to 6 per cent of the gross domestic product. It also says that both the national agenda and the election manifesto of the BJP mention this. A shadow of doubt lurks here for anyone to see. If education has to be privatised, then what is the need for an increased outlay?

The policy paper talks not only of privatisation but also of vocationalisation. This too is no big deal. We have been hearing and religiously talking about it since ages, but have done very little in the direction. Amounts earmarked for the purpose have been lapsing year after year. We have not as yet succeeded to give essential computer education to everyone in schools and colleges. This is being taken advantage of by semi-educated private men and women running computer classes in the streets and laughing all the way to the bank.

If the government is really serious about vocationalisation and does not mean any political guffa to be caused at its cost, it should restrict admission to colleges and divert the surging crowd of school-leavers to technical institutions. This should be done soon after the plus-two stage. With the increased outlay on education, this should be done immediately in every state without the bureaucratic formalities of asking the states to share the burden. As education is on the Concurrent List, there should be no hitch about it. It seems that the government is looking forward to monetary participation by the private sector to implement the scheme. As this would be a dilatory process, we can, to begin with, go ahead without this.

What is perhaps more important than all this is to deglamorise college education. To be a graduate has become a status symbol of sorts. A university degree-holder commands more money in the dowry market. Though he may be unemployed, his potential to be employed is what attracts the brides’ parents. This social aberration no government has ever tried to effectively deal with in its educational programmes. We may also have to change our recruitment policy which lays stress on university degrees.

The government will open a dialogue with the corporate sector to assess its employment needs. The syllabus-formation for vocational education after the plus-two level will be done accordingly. This too is not a new proposal. No one knows why this should find a place in the BJP government’s new education policy.

There are in the proposal a variety of platitudes which deserve to be ignored except the one about the education of women. Quoting Dr Murli Manohar Joshi, it says “in the country the girl child has a lower status, enjoys fewer rights, opportunities and benefits of childhood compared to boys”. While this is no revelation, the steps suggested to remedy this (providing financial grant to the families below the poverty line if they have a girl child) will create wider chasms between the sexes. To provide scholarship for each school-going girl child, too, needs to be reconsidered from the sociological and psychological points of view.

In making bombastic educational policies, spending millions on them and then forgetting all about them has been our national pastime. When Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister, he too had authored his “new education policy” and dreamt of opening residential public schools in backward areas. An apology of them now exists at some places as Navodaya Vidyalayas. What are the reasons for these miserable failures? Political predilection of the governments concerned is the one and the only one reason. We must learn to get out of it.

75 YEARS AGO
President’s ruling

ON taking up the issue of redistribution of seats in the Lahore Municipality amongst Hindus and Muslims, the President read out the letter which he had received from Prof Ruchi Ram Sahni several days back.

The President had invited the Hindu members to meet him and help him in redistributing the Hindu wards in accordance with the new scheme of the Education Minister.

Professor Sahni had written back to say that he declined to associate himself with the work and given three reasons for doing so — (1) the Lahore Municipality’s opinion was not invited on the original proposal, (2) the scheme was utterly unfair to several communities and (3) the scheme was opposed to the principles of representation.

The President said the question of merits was not before the committee. He had received instructions from the government which they were asked to carry out.

President persists

But the President did not allow a discussion on the merits and demerits of the redistribution of seats among the various communities. The question, he said, before the committee was to consider the division into wards, and not the legality or illegality of representation.

The government had decided the matter already and, therefore, the committee had no powers to discuss the question at all.

Our funny world

by Chetana Vaishnavi

OURS is a funny world, I swear. You bet it is not? Well, if you do not believe me, go right ahead and find out the truth for yourself by going through these newspaper snippets.

Sweet sewers: More than a ton of chocolate chunks that jammed sewers in Bnei Brak were extracted by sanitation workers. Defective chocolates were probably emptied by the manufacturing company costing the municipality $ 1,30,000 for clearing the sewers. (Tel Aviv). Now, is your mouth watering?

Fit for the dogs: A member of Britain’s House of Lords wishes to give the doggies a good meal — his body after death, for “it is terrible that bodies should be buried or cremated ... and it will save the cost of some dog food too” (London). Every dog has his day!

It’s God’s wish: Keith Kalota slayed his wife and two children because God told him to kill them whereas the Devil told him not to do so... and he loves God (Milwaukee). This tells me that very few of us love God.

Thrice born: Ten-year-old Simmi of Nangal identifies her relatives of her previous two births (India). I wonder what tempts her to return to this world again and again?

Present reminder: A Jewish pridegroom believes that RSVP at the bottom of invitation cards stands for “Remember to Send a Wedding Present” (Israel). And if you are intending to tie the knot, remember to include RSVP in your card. It is a different thing that “Ronde Sare Vyadon Pichhon” — everybody weeps after the wedding ceremony.

Snake stake: Two men were arrested in Western Thailand for stealing 80 king cobras from a snake farm and selling these to a restaurant for $265 (Bangkok). Stealing kings can’t make kings of them!

A tale of two males: Abdullah and Lavan, both males and bosom friends, while working in the Gulf, managed to make up to the marriage altar, till the honeymoon came to a standstill. The police intervened after the “bride’s” mother complained that her son was missing. (Alwaye). So sad for the homo-Romeos!

Be honest and face the worst: A workman who restored a bag containing valuables worth Rs 2 lakh and cash of Rs 1.7 lakh to the owner who had lost them, landed himself in deep trouble. The owner beat the man and handed him over to the police with the charge of theft after suspending him from service. (Ghaziabad). After all, does not black money unearthed cause some embarrassment?

Licence to die: A teacher dismissed from service wrote to the High Court, Mumbai, to permit him to commit suicide since, “there is no source of livelihood” (Nagur). Is this a new form of euthanasia?

Barked to life: A Russian teenager fell into a coma after she lost her dog who ran to chase a cat. Four days later after a television and radio appeal the dog was found, who revived his owner by barking himself hoarse (Moscow). His bark is better than his bite!

Delicate wilds: At the jungle restaurants on the outskirts of Bangkok we have an edible zoo. If you are bored with civilised life, plan a holiday to Bangkok where you can order delicacies like snake soups, fried tigers and curried monkeys to tickle up the devil’s taste buds. (Bangkok). Nip in the bud, dears!

Children’s perfumes: While we dab our wrists and necks with the most elegant of perfumes, a US firm has come up with something interesting for our bored dears. They manufacture dolls with bad breath. The toys have been nicknamed as “breath blaster”, “mackerel mouth”, “dog breath” and “Victor vomit”, and their foul smell is obtained by pressing their bellies (USA). There, it leaves a bad taste in everybody’s mouth!

Cheat feat: Students are flocking to an exhibition near Barcelona to learn how to cheat in exams and get away with it. As many as 105 ways to beat the teachers watching the youngsters taking exams were recently exhibited (Spain). Our Indian counterparts can sure shame them!

Now may I have the 100 bucks you betted and lost?

Central Asia: the sky is ominous
By M.S.N. Menon

IF we are helpless today in the face of Pakistan’s long-term plan to annex Afghanistan, we can only blame ourselves. We should have been more savvy about the strategic importance of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. But, alas, we were not!Be that as it may, the loss of Afghanistan to the Taliban, a creation of Pakistan and the CIA, will pave the way for the entry of the USA into Afghanistan and Central Asia. And, in turn, to Jammu and Kashmir.Afghanistan is the cockpit of the world with a vantage view of the whole of Asia — Russia and China, in particular. That is why Washington has had its eye on this strategic region for a very long time. Remember, the sensational visit of Ms Robin Raphel, the former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, to Afghanistan?

In the days of the cold war, the US objective was to contain the USSR and China. Today, the main objective is to gain control of the vast oil and gas resources of Central Asia, estimated at 30 billion tonnes of oil and seven trillion cubic metres of gas, expected to last more than a century.

But it is easier said than done. The USA has to contend with other forces, which are also having an eye on this region. Above all, Russia and China.

Russia has vast reserves of oil and gas on its own territory. Its main concern in Central Asia is, therefore, to prevent US dominance over the region. Moscow fears that the USA will wean away Central Asian states from the Russian sphere of influence. That is why Moscow insists on the joint exploitation of oil and gas. But there are limits to what it can do to safeguard its interests: It has little capital.

But China is bursting at the seams with dollars. It has quietly established a substantial presence in Central Asia. But on this later.

The stake is indeed high, and every effort short of war will be employed by the USA to secure a large share of Central Asia’s oil and gas for its oil giants.

But this is a highly simplistic picture. The reality is much more complex. The USA is desperate. Its actions vouch for it. Five out of seven major economic actors will be Asians in the next century. This has alarmed the USA. It cannot allow Japan, China and Russia to exploit these resources. But the USA is suspect. It needs Pakistan as a partner in this enterprise. But Pakistan has its price. It wants the USA to promote its private enterprise in Afghanistan — namely to annex it. This, according to Pak strategists, will give Pakistan “depth” (in military parlance). (Of course, in this age of missile warfare, depth has no great significance.) but, then, ever since Pakistan lost its eastern wing, it has been thinking up ways to expand its territory. Jammu and Kashmir is first on the list.

Afghanistan can certainly strengthen Pakistan’s economic and military sinews, but it may turn out to be a calamity, for it is a region which has remained untamed for millennia.

Both Islamabad and Washington have plans to transport oil and gas through Afghanistan and Pakistan, skirting Iran. While this can bring in huge revenue to both Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the US oil giants what is important is proximity to users of these products. They would prefer a Pakistan port, but they are not unmindful of the risks. A turbulent Afghanistan can never ensure the safety of the pipelines.

There is another angle: the creation of a prosperous Pashtun-dominated Afghanistan will stir up the old demand for a Pashtunistan, including the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan. In any case, the days of Punjabi dominance in Pakistan will come to an end. The ethnic conflicts are more likely to aggravate in these conditions. If, however, the USA makes up with Iran (there is no reason why it cannot), we will have an entirely different scenario, in which the importance of Pakistan to the USA will be drastically reduced. It is cheaper and safer to have a pipeline through Iran. And, remember, the USA is not without an alternative. The pipeline which is now being constructed linking Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan with the Gulf through the Caspian Sea can be an effective alternative.

Russia has the best credentials in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, the population of which is 40 per cent Russian. And Kazakhstan has most of the oil and gas. The USA and China are already present here. And Russia has teamed up with US oil companies.

Although China is suspect in the region, it has of late emerged as a friend of Islamic states. Prof. Samuel Huntington says that there is a Sinic-Islamic axis to counter Western influence and dominance over the Islamic world. This is not a mere speculation.

China’s presence in Central Asia has another angle. It has serious ethnic problems in its north and west, where the Uighurs, Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Mongols and Tibetans live. (They have been reduced to minorities in their own territory). To prevent these ethnic groups from linking up with their cousins in Central Asia, China must cultivate cordial relations with Central Asian states. But China is taking no chances. It has deployed more than 200,000 troops in Xinjiang. And huge armies are tied up in Tibet.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are the main sources of support to Uighur and other minorities. This is part of the pan-Islamic movement. As it is mainly directed against USA, China does not feel uneasy in supporting it, although it can harm its position in Xinjiang.

On more than one occasion, China had to close down the Karakorum highway to prevent the entry of Muslim fundamentalists into China. China has even put up a fence around the Kunjrab Pass.

Central Asia is no threat to China, for the Central Asians are opposed to fundamentalism. But China has been cautious. While recognising the independence of Central Asian states, China insisted that they recognise the territorial integrity of China and the “one-China” doctrine.

With World Bank support China has already built up major highways, rail lines and pipelines to ensure the long-term role of China in the region. The opening up of the trans-Eurasian road through Central Asia in 1990 and the linking of Almaty with Urumchi in Xinjiang by rail in 1992 have created the necessary infrastructure for the rapid economic growth of the region. What is more, China is developing Xinjiang as a show-window to impress the Central Asian Muslims. Urumchi has become the Singapore of China.

China has already established close relations with almost all Central Asian states. It has oil ventures in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with an investment of about $ 5 billion. China is building a 2000-km-long pipeline across Xinjiang at a cost of $ 3.5 billion to carry oil and gas to China, as also for export to Japan.

China has given yuan credits of $ 5.7 billion to Kyrghystan, $ 5 billion to Tajikistan to buy Chinese capital and consumer goods.

Central Asia is crucial to China’s energy security. That is why it cannot loosen its hold on Xinjiang, for this will have repercussions in Tibet and Inner Mongolia. What is more, like the Western powers, China does not want Russia to re-establish itself as a power centre again in Central Asia. For similar reasons, Russia is wary of Chinese intentions. The Russian media has been critical of Chinese activities in the region. And both Russia and China will keep a close watch on US activities.

India and Japan are minor players in this geo-political game. They can secure some leverage only if they are able to prevent the emergence of any single power as a hegemony. But can India play this game?