Afzal Guru’s hanging in February 2013 and shoddy handling of the episode upset Kashmiris. Yet it did not explode and many believe the emotional hurt was such that it hit the psyche but its impact did not manifest in the form of violence; an unusual phenomenon given Kashmir’s history of unrest. A year and a half later there appear to be straws in the wind that may be indicators of something brewing afresh. Let us start with reports of young Kashmiris with university degrees suddenly taking to militant ranks; an indication of the degree of angst among the youth. Social media is exploding with alienation. This needs no instigation from across the LoC. Yet, there is no shortage of rhetoric from across, from the likes of Syed Salahuddin who ensures that his utterances find their way to the Kashmiri media.
Then there are incidents such as that at Tral where the situation after the Army’s killing of a JeM terrorist deteriorated rapidly, leading to a mob destroying two police bunker vehicles during the Namaz-e-Janaza. The killed terrorist was a Pakistani; this was not unusual after the death of foreign terrorists some years ago but in the recent past the practice was usually reserved for local ‘martyrs’.
It is the last fortnight’s events that cannot be glossed over. A traffic accident at Zainakut on the outskirts of Srinagar left seven dead under the wheels of an Army truck. Not many would realise that the Army’s lumbering convoys, needed for the logistics of the force deployed on the LoC and in Ladakh, are a symbol associated with raw power and dominance of the Army. Militarily, this may be a psychological plus point to control a situation, but it becomes negative once the military situation is under control and the process of reconciliation begins. Realising this, the Army had toned down the aggressiveness of its convoys in 2011. This had sent a wave of positive energy in Kashmir. The accident has led to questions from many young Kashmiris about the Army’s sincerity to the reconciliation process. In Kashmir, a simple accident can become a trigger for much more.
Two other unconnected events have occurred almost simultaneously in North and South Kashmir. For the first time in the rich tradition of support rendered by Kashmiri Muslims to the Shri Amaranth Yatra we find an aberration. A difference of opinion among some local pony owners and ‘bhandara’ workers at Baltal, a base camp for the yatra, blew out of control, leading to the torching of tents belonging to the locals. While the situation was brought under control, it is not easy to undo the damage to the psyche in as complex a socio-political environment as Kashmir.
Even as this drama was underway at Baltal, processions and stone-throwing mobs appeared in the sensitive towns between Anantnag and Kulgam. Nowhere in the world has the physical expression of condemnation of Israel over the Gaza bombings been as strident as in Kashmir. But in the midst of it, stone throwers appeared as if by design and attempted to make their statement of street power as seen in 2008-10. The police responded with crowd control methods but as it invariably happens, a youth was killed, leading to more unrest, raids on houses of troublemakers, night-time arrests and the usual intelligence-related actions, and led to spiralling of turbulence.
As if to link the two events, Srinagar witnessed the raising of the first flags of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) at Jamia Masjid. This came in the wake of recorded statements issued by Al-Qaeda that Kashmir too was on its agenda, an event that in isolation could have been dismissed for lack of seriousness. However, seen in the light of the vitiated environment of the Valley, this statement too becomes one of the dots that need to be joined.
This is election year, and the political environment is hotting up. The political alliance that ruled the state stands broken. The Jammu region is alienated from Kashmir, politically and socially. A new government is in place at the Centre and its response is being put to test. The government has reacted with surprising transparency by sending a written advisory to the state government to take adequate measures to control the deteriorating security situation. The transfer of J&K’s most experienced police officer, Shiv Sahai, to assume charge of law and order is also a sensible action. There have been well publicised visits by the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and Army Chief to the Valley and they would have been adequately briefed on the emerging situation.
Yet, in Kashmir’s security landscape many things remain unnoticed until much later because of the inability to join the apparently unrelated dots. The trans-border firing and attempted infiltration over the past few days in Jammu division and along the LoC may also appear unconnected, but there is a pattern. Distracting events always precede an explosion in the Valley. It is not necessary that it will happen in exactly the same way as in the past. The wily adversaries are innovative. Kashmir’s media and intelligentsia need to counsel people, especially the youth, about the negative fallout of a return to 2008-10 in the vain hope of giving a boost to the flagging separatist movement by exploiting external events in the Islamic world.
Joining the dots is never easy, more so in Kashmir. But to disprove the ominous predictions of 2011, the establishment would be ahead of the situation if it does the exercise in seriousness, at least till the Assembly elections.
The writer is a former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, Senior Fellow of the Delhi Policy Group and Visiting Fellow of the Vivekanand International Foundation.
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I have often written of the neglect of our own regional languages and bemoaned the loss of many lesser-known languages and dialects. However, it must be said that imposing a system that will create chaos in matters of governance is a dangerous solution. We have all encountered situations where a language has to be learnt for one’s own survival. In the case of civil servants, they are often sent to states where they face an alien language. In such a situation, English is often the only way to be understood until the officer has acquired proficiency in the language of the state. IAS probationers are required to pass an exam in the language of the cadre they have been allotted. I know from personal knowledge that a Bengali friend who was to serve in Andhra Pradesh had to learn Telugu and had a hard time but he did it. His wife, a Punjabi, speaks fluent Telugu even 40 years later. In our own case, my husband learnt not just Gurmukhi but Urdu as well as all the old land records of Punjab were in Urdu. Our children speak Punjabi like naturals. So where is the imposition and hegemonic power of one language against another?