P E R S P E C T I V E

vote 2014
bjp alliances
Who’s on the NDA rainbow
Though the BJP has whipped up an alliance with 28 parties, it stands to gain little from some allies that are insignificant. Only six had any presence in the outgoing Lok Sabha. The party, however, feels it will have a bargaining edge in the event it fails to get a majority.
By Vibha Sharma
it was in 1999 that the BJP was finally able to form a government that lasted the full term with the support of major regional players. These parties included the Shiv Sena, SAD, All India Trinamool Congress, BJD, JD-U, TDP and DMK. The NC of Jammu and Kashmir was also part of the alliance.

How the alliances will work and impact

BJP leader Prakash Javadekar (third from left) with TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu (centre) and other TDP legislators after the alliance for the Lok Sabha elections, in Hyderabad. PTI file photograph

vote 2014
bjp alliances
Who’s on the NDA rainbow
Though the BJP has whipped up an alliance with 28 parties, it stands to gain little from some allies that are insignificant. Only six had any presence in the outgoing Lok Sabha. The party, however, feels it will have a bargaining edge in the event it fails to get a majority.
By Vibha Sharma

it was in 1999 that the BJP was finally able to form a government that lasted the full term with the support of major regional players. These parties included the Shiv Sena, SAD, All India Trinamool Congress, BJD, JD-U, TDP and DMK. The NC of Jammu and Kashmir was also part of the alliance.

This time, the BJP has cobbled together a far bigger number — 28 or so — says party vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. It has by its side long-standing friends, the SAD and Shiv Sena. Ramvilas Paswan (LJP) and Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) are also back.

LJP chief Ramvilas Paswan (L) with BJP leader Nitin Gadkari during a joint campaign in Nagpur. PTI file photograph

Party president Rajnath Singh has also stitched up rainbow alliances for Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Interestingly, quite a few among the BJP’s new-found friends are small regional players, one-person constellations with hardly any pan-India appeal. With the ‘Modi wave’ sweeping, they, in fact, stand to gain more from the alliance than the BJP.

From this list of 28, only six had any presence in the outgoing Lok Sabha. The list includes the Northeast Regional Political Front (NERPF) — an alliance of 10 parties, of which one is the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which is not with the NDA. NERPF members National People’s Party, Naga People’s Front and Manipur People’s party have been enumerated as separate entities on the list.

A senior party leader, requesting anonymity, admits that the purpose served by these parties is more psychological than political. While arguing in support of their benefits, he says many of these parties may draw a blank. He concedes that aligning with Paswan and Naidu caused heartburn in the state leadership, which wanted to go it alone.

“But perceptions are important. After Nitish Kumar (JD-U) withdrew support, LJP helped get rid of Modi’s untouchability tag. The BJP-TDP alliance has a good record. This time, the allies stand to gain more. But the advantage of smaller allies is that the numbers they get will decide their negotiating power, meaning lesser administrative trouble for the BJP post-May 16,” he says.

Advantage allies

The advantages of BJP tying up with one-man parties are change in perception that Modi is untouchable; transfer of dedicated vote banks of caste-based minor parties to party vote share; and since they are caste-based parties, a pinch in the rivals’ votes, particularly in Bihar and Maharashtra.

This time, even the major parties are depending on the BJP. After the death of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray, his son Udhav is engaged in a turf war with his cousin Raj Thackeray. Modi, it seems, is fond of Raj who leads the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and would have preferred to have him on board. But Udhav refused to play ball. If he does not deliver as per plans, the NDA may see some major changes in Maharashtra post-May 16.

In comparison, the SAD appears to be in a more commanding position. The BJP has allowed it to play regional politics with the HJC by turning a blind eye to its machinations with the INLD. “All is fair in love and war. We may need INLD’s support,” BJP leaders say.

Tie-up troubles

The allies come with their own troubles, or so the BJP discovered when Naidu raised the alarm over “weak” candidates fielded by the BJP. The BJP was forced to part with the Ichchapuram Assembly seat, a day before the last date of filing of nominations on April 19. “Minor irritants are part of grand alliances,” BJP leaders say.

Sources attribute Naidu’s unhappiness to the BJP’s candidate for Rajampet in Seemandhra, D Purandeshwari, daughter of former Chief Minister NT Ramarao. NTR’s sons-in-law Nara Chandrababu Naidu and Duggubati Venkateshwara Rao are rivals.

Rao’s wife — Naidu’s sister-in-law Purandeshwari — has been attacking Naidu for usurping NTR’s legacy. The BJP had promised Naidu it would not give her ticket.

A senior BJP leader says: “Naidu, like Paswan, are with the NDA because of political gains. For them these elections are a fight for political survival.”

But analysts talk of consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes against TDP in Seemandhra. “The BJP backed the Congress over Telangana. This went against the TDP. Naidu wanted a better deal to send out a message to his cadres and voters who are unhappy with the alliance. It is a do-or-die election for him,” they say.

The magic figure

A question that is asked is how would the BJP get the magic figure of 272 plus. Consider this: There are 28 states and seven UTs which send 543 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The help of regional parties is required to form the government at the Centre. However, without accounting the Northeast states, the number of states where the BJP has an alliance of some form is just about eight. Many allies did not even contest the polls.

Naqvi, however, says his party is in a commanding position in states ruled by it —Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP. “In UP, the party will capture a sizeable chunk of 80 seats, likewise in Bihar. We are comfortable in Himachal, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Goa and Maharashtra. You will see results in our favour in the Northeast,” he claims.

The party has high hopes from Odisha, where it was almost wiped out after its split with the BJD. BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu says the South will send “at least 50-55 NDA MPs” to the Lok Sabha. Analysts, however, put it at 25 to 30 seats.

Kerala allies are fringe players, capable of influencing only on one-odd seat. In Tamil Nadu, it is difficult to challenge the AIADMK and DMK. Though the losses can be offset by gains from Karnataka, where after suffering a defeat in the last Assembly polls, the BJP is back in the game with the return of ex-Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa and entry of B Sriramulu.

Plan C

The BJP is upbeat with Rajnath Singh escalating estimates up to 350 seats. Now for the hard facts. If the NDA manages the 272 figure, there will be a problem. If it manages between 220 and 230, it will need help to reach the halfway mark of 272. It may have to seek help from the AIADMK, DMK, AITC, BJD and also PDP and NC. But while Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik seem to be for a “non-BJP, non-Congress” alliance, Jayalalithaa is engaged in a battle with the BJP and is not ready to cede any ground.

The BJP, however, believes that poll rhetoric doesn’t matter and the AIADMK would join the NDA. While there is talk of “Plan B” and “a group in BJP which is waiting for Modi to fail” to take charge of the situation, there is also a “Plan C”. Amid the euphoria of opinion polls is harsh pragmatism which takes stock of a situation where West Bengal, Odisha and the South do not deliver.

In that case, sources say the BJP would support Jayalalithaa. “Irrespective of what she is saying now, if the NDA crosses the 200 mark, she will support us. If we stop at 160-170, the NDA may prop her as the Prime Minister.

How the alliances will work and impact

The BJP believes that individually some allies may be small, but together with the ‘Modi wave’, they will work as a force multiplier.

Tamil Nadu 39 seats

The seven-party multihued alliance is BJP’s first venture in the state dominated by the DMK and AIADMK. The DMDK fielded candidates in 14 seats, PMK and BJP eight each, MDMK seven and IJK and KMDK one each. Statistics show that the MDMK, PMK and DMDK captured around 20 per cent in 2009. The NDA may claim 20-25 per cent vote share, whether it translates into a seat will be known only on May 16. Many believe the alliance is a face-saver because the BJP could not get on board the DMK and AIADMK. Though privately, BJP leaders call Tamil Nadu and Odisha their weak points, they have hope in Tamil Nadu. A meeting between actor Rajnikanth and Modi has added to their confidence.

“Jayalalithaa calling the Gujarat model a myth is a proof of her irritation. Fear of a stronger BJP in her bastion is the reason behind her offensive,” they claim.

Kerala 20 seats

RSP (Bolshevik) is considered a fringe party, as is Kerala Congress (Nationalist). BJP leaders say the alliance is part of long-term plans for the state where the party has no presence.

Andhra Pradesh 42 seats

The BJP is expecting major gains after its alliance with the TDP. It hopes that vote-transfer will help in Telengana and Seemandhra. The BJP has gained a foothold in Telangana by favouring bifurcation. It will gain from TDP cadres where the Telangana sentiment is not as strong. Batting for a united Andhra, Naidu is in a better position in Seemandhra.

Maharashtra 48 seats

The BJP is calling the alliance here “Maha Yuti” (grand alliance). Apart from the Shiv Sena, there is Ramdas Athawale's Republican Party of India which enjoys the support of Dalits in some pockets. He has already been accommodated in the Rajya Sabha. The Congress-led state government is facing anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption and of ignoring farmers. Farmer leader Shetty had defeated NCP candidate. In alliance with the BJP and Shiv Sena, he has the potential to harm Sharad Pawar-led NCP bastions in western Maharashtra and Marathwada.

Uttar Pradesh 80 seats

The BJP is the most confident here. Positioning Modi in Varanasi is expected to polarise and influence the entire state, including the Purvanchal region extending up to Bihar. The Muzaffarnagar riots along with the ‘Modi wave’ will be an advantage in western UP. The Apna Dal, which claims strong support from the Kurmi backward caste, is contesting two seats in Mirzapur and Pratapgarh. Modi’s OBC credentials are helping the caste-divided Hindi heartland.

Bihar 40 seats

The three-cornered contest among friend-turned-foe JD-U, Congress-RJD alliance and NDA can be anybody’s gain. The NDA ally LJP managed around 6.5 per cent votes in 2009 and got no seat. But Paswan is said to have 50,000 to 60,000 voters in each constituency. RLP leader Upendra Kushwaha is also a Dalit leader. With them, the BJP is hoping to crack the caste code in Bihar.

Haryana 10 seats

Though a section of the senior leadership wanted the INLD to help pump up Jat support for the BJP, the HJC led by Kuldeep Bishnoi and a section within the BJP resisted the move. The party believes the INLD will support an NDA government in the Centre.

Punjab 13 seats

The BJP claims to be in a comfortable position with the SAD, which it feels may benefit from the ‘Modi wave’ despite anti-incumbency.