M A I N   N E W S

Cross-border skirmishes peak as Pak focuses on Afghan drawdown
Ajay Banerjee/TNS

The Indian Army estimates say that the LoC is volatile along 48 km or some 6 per cent of its 740-km length.

The volatile stretch As per Indian Army estimates, 48 km or roughly 6% of the 740-km Line of Control is volatile There have been 84 violations from across the LoC this year with 39 incidents in August so far The 48 km are spread across five distinct sectors in the Jammu region, the Kashmir region and the Ladakh region The LoC has been demarcated on the ground. Maps of the same were signed and exchanged by India and Pakistan in 1972. The ceasefire agreement was inked in 2003

This year, there have been 84 violations from across the LoC with 39 incidents in August so far giving rise to speculation of a repeat of a 1999-Kargil-type limited skirmish.

The LoC has been demarcated on the ground. Maps of the same have been signed and exchanged by India and Pakistan in 1972. The ceasefire agreement was inked in 2003.

Pakistan has claimed that six of its soldiers have been killed by Indian Army’s firing since the start of August. Five Indian soldiers were killed on August 6 along the LoC. So far, both sides have been using small arms like light machine guns and heavy mortors which fire up to 5 km.

The 48-km stretch is spread across five distinct sectors in the Jammu region, the Kashmir region and the Ladakh region. Since the start of this year, Poonch has had some 18 ceasefire violations spread across a swathe of 10 km, Krishna Ghatti has seen some 20 incidents of cross LoC firing spread across 10 km, Bhimber Galli has had 22 violations and 12 km of areas is affected. All three sectors are in the Jammu region.

The Uri-Tangdhar sector, which is the north of the Pir-Panjal mountains, have seen firing along the LoC on 15 occasions affecting 12 km while Drass-Kargil have seen firing on nine occasions along 4 km. The two towns are in the Ladakh region and, in August, have seen the first violations along the LoC in years, clearly being the biggest expansion of tensions. The areas in Jammu region and the Kashmir region have been traditional infiltration routes for militants.

Army Chief General Bikram Singh’s orders are clear. “If fired upon from across the LoC, retaliate with force. Give a reply.” He has asked formation commanders to follow the laid down standard operating procedures to deal with Pakistan’s firing. He has made it clear that moral ascendancy has to be maintained. Rather in January this year, when two soldiers were beheaded, he had assured the nation that “we will respond to Pakistani firing”.

Indian Army official today admitted that LoC ceasefire violations, meaning when fire is directed from across, is clearly setting the stage for a post-2014 scenario when the US-led international forces withdraw from Afghanistan. Indian assessment is that the Pakistani Army has been gradually increasing the area of firing across the LoC to keep India engaged and raise the issue that civilians were being killed on the Pakistani side.

“There is no fear of any escalation as yet. The 48-km stretch can be managed locally”, said a senior functionary while admitting that Pakistan has upped the ante and the India has responded. There is no artillery gun fire till now.

Indian assessment is that ceasefire violations are not just the routine ones to facilitate entry of militants into J&K. It’s a message from the Pakistani Army that the Kashmir issue will not be dealt with diplomatically.

The Director Generals of the Military Operations are expected to speak over the hotline tomorrow where the matter of recent incidents is likely to be raised.