New Delhi, June 11
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) prediction of near-normal monsoon seems to be falling apart. Not only are the country’s most awaited seasonal rains way short of expected reach at this time of the year, but their intensity is also well below the mark. The cumulative countrywide rain is 30 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA).

In fact, the major contribution to this year’s monsoon appears to be coming from the North-East as the parched areas of southern peninsula and central India, including Vidarbha, north interior Karnataka, Marathwada and Rayalseema, have recorded rains that are 65 per cent and 80 per cent below the LPA.

Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, IMD has recorded excess rains in four, normal in five, deficient in six, scanty in 20 and no rain in one subdivision.

According to the normal schedule, seasonal rains - by June 10 - should have covered almost the entire peninsular India, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, apart from Maharashtra and also parts of Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bihar.

But the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), which passed through Harnai, Satara, Belgaum, Agumbe, Medikeri, Kodaikanal and Gangtok on June 6-7, has so far remained static.

While the IMD is assuring that conditions are favourable for its advancement into some more parts of interior Karnataka and south Andhra and remaining parts of Tamil Nadu in the next two to three days, there is no word yet on when it would reach the crucial areas of Vidarbha and Marathwada.

The good news is that farmers in most areas have not started sowing yet. This means that the impact of deficient rains on their limited resources will be less.

Agriculture scientist MS Swaminathan, however, wants the government to be ready with “Panchsheel” - a five-point programme - to reduce the impact of poor rains on farmers.

“The government can give monsoon two more weeks to progress, but it should be ready with a contingency plan - focusing on soil conservation, water-harvesting technology and inputs like late-sowing drought-resistant seeds, credit and insurance policy and remunerative MSP - to protect the livelihood of farmers,” he said.

The Agriculture Ministry has an action plan ready for rain-fed districts but is waiting for IMD’s fresh report, expected sometime around June 26, to assess the impact on the sowing season and water-table conditions in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

The authorities are also drawing comfort from the fact that some international agencies have forecast normal rains at least in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Arriving in Kerala on June 5 against the normal date of June 1, the monsoon this year adopted a path quite unlike the usual expected run advancing mainly along the west coast and over North-Eastern states till date.