The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Automobile blues
The industry must pull up its socks

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) appears to have pressed the panic button following a sharp decline in sales of cars and two-wheelers for the fourth consecutive month in October. Rising interest rates and fuel costs, it complains, are keeping buyers away even as automobile manufacturers have been merrily coming up with new models and luxury cars. October being a festive month records one of the highest sales during the year. But this year car sales apparently declined by 24 per cent over the sales in the same month last year. The manufacturers are rightly worried about pricing, rising labour costs and restive trade unions besides the sluggish signals from the economy. The Society, which had projected a growth of 16 per cent in sales at the beginning of this year, has already downgraded the forecast by between two and four per cent.

Automobile manufacturers have begun piling pressure on the government to reduce excise duty on large cars in the next budget, reportedly from the current level of 22 per cent to 16 per cent. Significantly, this year’s budget had offered tax sops for electric and hybrid cars but none of the manufacturers seems to have shown any interest in making investments in developing the ‘green and clean’ cars. The manufacturers are also learnt to be demanding the waiver of the additional excise duty of Rs 15,000 on cars having engines of 1,500 cc and above. Clearly, the margins are higher in selling the larger cars and the manufacturers are naturally interested in extending the good times. Even more significantly, the manufacturers seem to have urged the government to ban the cars manufactured before the year 2000 so as to maintain pollution standards.

The government will, however, do well to ignore the pleas to reduce duty on fuel guzzling large and luxury cars. The automobile industry has, no doubt, slowed down and has something to worry about. But the picture of ‘gloom and doom’ being painted is largely overdrawn because the sales of buses and trucks have continued to rise and so have the export of cars. Rather than looking to the the government. it is time the automobile industry gets its own act together.

11.11.11
The game of numbers

What’s in a number, one may well ask. Does one need to ask? Really? Well, we all know that there is no number like number 1, numero uno, or whatever one may call it. It is the stuff dreams are made of. Who doesn’t want to be No 1? People are willing to pay so much for this privilege, through hard work, by outshining their peers and, if necessary, by clawing their way to the top, or just paying money. We have multiple instances of people paying enormous sums of money to secure number 1, be it for the vanity plates on their cars, or for mobile phones that are the first in a series. Whatever it takes, they need to be at the top of the heap. It’s only when you reach the top that you realise that there’s someone else on a higher plane, and thus the merry game continues.

Today (November 11) is the day for thousands of matrimonial alliances to be formed. People are so happy with the multiple ones that they conveniently forget the millennium, the digit 20, that should come before the last 11. The allure of being married on the day when there are multiple ones in a couple’s life is so strong that there has been a virtual run on priests to perform the celebrations, and caterers are catering to an explosion of demand, even as guests have to balance out various invitations for such ceremonies.

As for those who are already couples, they want the additional one that is expected soon after marriage, and what better day to have that one than the one in which six ones are conjoined. In come obliging doctors who are ready with their scalpels to perform caesarean sections, timed to the beat of the clock and the turn of the day. What about those who miss the boat today? Well, tomorrow is another day, might we suggest that it will just be like the ones before it and those that will come after it, only it will be without this hype.

Thought for the Day

It is the job of thinking people not to be on the side of the executioners. — Albert Camus

ARTICLE

Breakthrough in Nepal
Outlook is also upbeat
by Inder Malhotra

LAST week’s breakthrough in the five-year deadlock over the peace process in Nepal that I had occasion to witness from a ringside seat may have taken the outside world by surprise. Within the Himalayan republic, however, it was widely expected. Twenty-four hours before the much-awaited document was signed by all four major parties word had gone round that things were falling apart because the chairman of the United Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist), Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also called Prachanda, had “gone back” on a crucial commitment. But all sources – politicians, diplomats, academics and fellow journalists – advised me to ignore this idle talk. “The time for a consensus”, they said, “has come, and consensus there will be tomorrow”.

The reason for this collective confidence ought to be clear. It was way back in November 2006 that the historic 12-point agreement on the return of peace at the end of the 10-year Maoist revolt that took a toll of 18,000 lives was signed. India had played an important role in making this possible. Remarkably, that was one of the very few occasions when this country’s help was welcomed instead of being condemned as “unacceptable interference”. On that day both Mr Dahal and the then leader of the Nepali Congress, the late Girija Prasad Koirala, had described the landmark event as the “beginning of a beginning”. Everyone expected further progress to be reasonably speedy. None knew that it would take another five years before the next step towards the “new beginning” would become a reality.

To make matters worse, this five-year interval turned out to be one of the more squalid chapters in Nepal’s history. All political parties, each of them bedevilled by deep divisions within, vilified one another. Their differences were acute and bickering beyond belief. Came a time when Mr Dahal, Prime Minister since the 2008 election in which the Maoists won 38 per cent seats in the Constituent Assembly that also acts as national Parliament, brought matters to a head by dismissing the Army Chief. Other political parties protested and President Ram Baran Yadav, as Supreme Commander, overruled the Prime Minister.

Mr Dahal resigned and thereafter governments were cobbled together with difficulty and brought down with the greatest ease within a short period. At one time as many as 16 attempts, spread over seven months, to form a government failed before a rickety and unavoidably short-lived compromise was reached. It was only at the end of August with the election as Prime Minister of Baburam Bhattarai, a comrade as well as rival of Mr Dahal, that a semblance of stability returned to Nepal. Meanwhile, since there was absolutely no meeting ground on the shape of the Constitution, the deadline for its adoption had to be extended from time to time. The latest one expires on November 30.

It should be no surprise, therefore, that by the time Mr Bhattarai took over as Prime Minister the Nepali public was fed up with the dismal deadlock and disastrous antics of politicians of all hues. Supporters of every political party told it that enough was enough, and it was imperative that the “Gordian Knot” was cut. And the Gordian knot it is that the November 1 Agreement has cut. For, the most contentious and divisive issue of integration of Maoist combatants into the Nepali Army that had defied solution all along is at last out of the way.

There is no need to go over all the widely publicised details of the agreement on the integration and rehabilitation of the former combatants to make the point that the deal is fair, reasonable and acceptable to all. The Army, a much-respected institution, has also reason to be satisfied because its concerns have been addressed duly. Both sides have been wise to compromise. The number of former Maoist fighters to be integrated in the Army would be 6,500, and not 10,000 as originally demanded by the UCPN (M). And they would be members of a new Army unit assigned the task of protecting forests, providing disaster relief, helping the construction of infrastructure and similar tasks. Those opting for voluntary retirement would be compensated generously with about nine times an average Nepali’s annual income, according to one authoritative estimate.

To stress this is not to pretend that there would be no difficulties in implementing the excellent agreement that has been reached. There is a sharp difference of opinion on the deal within the Maoist party, including among the ex-combatants. Mohan Baidya, chief ideologue of the party and leader of a major faction, opposed the deal not only at party forums but also publicly, promising that he would resist it tooth and nail. A telling indication of Mr Baidya’s intense hostility to his senior leader is that he allowed his trusted aide Ram Bahadur Thapa “Badal” publicly to allege that Mr Dahal was an “agent of RAW (India’s foreign intelligence agency)”. Later, Mr Thapa only partially withdrew the slur. Incidentally, the easiest way to damn one’s rival in politics or any other sphere in Nepal is to call him/her “an Indian agent”.

If, despite all this, it is almost certain that the present agreement would be carried to its logical conclusion the reason is that no political party has an alternative. The Maoists can neither go back to the jungle nor impose the classic single-party rule. Nor can other major parties wish away the Maoists from the national scene. Moreover, however complex their relations, Mr Dahal and Mr Bhattarai are at one in their determination to see the peace and democratisation process through. What distinguishes the Maoist party from all others is that none of its members wants the party to be split.

Of course, the Constitution cannot be drafted within the next fortnight. So, by common consent, and with the approval of the highest judiciary, which though critical of the unconscionable delay so far recognises the “doctrine of necessity”, a last, six-month extension to the Constituent Assembly would suffice. A gentlemen’s agreement on the shape of the Constitution, sharing of power and federalism exists already.

It is also agreed that as soon as the Constitution is adopted, Mr Bhattarai would resign and the Nepali Congress’ nominee would head the government that would hold elections. Thereafter the scenario would depend on the election’s outcome.

MIDDLE

Work like a dog
by Uttam Sengupta

Inflationary times are said to be when you have to work like a dog to live like one. And whenever I read about inflation these days, I am reminded of hyper-inflation in Germany that we studied in our economics class. Inflation was such, we were told, that people would carry money in their bags to buy stuff they could carry in their pockets.

It was difficult for our young minds to grasp the enormity of that situation. Several years later, when a friend returned from Japan after attending a medical conference, I casually asked whether he had boarded the bullet train. He smiled and said that he had managed to put his hand on it.

The fare to travel to the first stop and return, he explained, was so prohibitively expensive that he could not afford to take the ride. A successful, prosperous doctor, he ventured to inform that for five days he had a loaf of bread and sugar cubes for dinner. He would hog the breakfast and the lunch provided at the conference. But for dinner he and his friends were on their own. And everything was so expensive that they settled on the loaf.

A similar experience was shared by a senior banker who had decided on a well-deserved vacation abroad with his wife. They planned to look up an old friend in Tokyo and were delighted to see him at the airport when they landed. After much hugging and warm embraces later, they drove to the friend’s place, freshened up and sat down for lunch.

The banker candidly confessed the bitterness he felt rising when they were served rice and lady’s fingers. “ When our friends visit us, specially after long intervals”, he recalled, thinking, “ we go out of our way to offer a lavish spread - and here we are, after having spent a minor fortune in flying and yet this is what we get ?” The uneasy lunch we had in relative silence and the host did most of the talking.

It was only much later that the visiting banker realised that lady’s finger was not just a delicacy but was prohibitively expensive as well at $10 for each of them. Japan, even when it was going through a boom, had to import most of its foodstuff, pushing the prices over the top. Around the same time, in the United States, one could have a burgher, a packet of French fries and a milk shake for as little as $3.50. But a visit to the barber for the simplest of hair-cuts in a small American town could set you back by $ 10 or more.

That is why I get a funny feeling every time I hear people cribbing about the “impossibly high” prices of vegetables and now of petrol. Nobody seems to mind paying Rs 50 lakh or a crore and a half for a small flat; or Rs 10 lakh or more for a car. But paying Rs 200 more for your petrol or to buy cauliflowers at Rs 70 each is “preposterous”. The government is clearly no good. Robbers now rule over us, I say!

OPED — WORLD

The way things are going in the case of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is disgusting. The world is uncertain of what is to come, the only certainty being the challenge posed to the fragile unity of the Palestinian people. Problems of law and order, militancy and the unforeseen attitudes of leaders are some of the concerns of the people. More than anything, the role of the aggressive Islamic group Hamas or the Islamic Jihad has to shift from hostility to dialogue. Moreover, the Arab Spring has spurred a new dynamics, leading to the increased isolation of Israel with nations like Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia leaning more in defence of the recent launching of Palestinian diplomacy seeking a full statehood at the UN.

Israeli and Palestinian security-controlled areas

facts sheet
n The Palestinian Authority (PA) controls only 17.2 per cent of the Occupied West Bank divided into 13 non-contiguous reservations.
n The PA controls only 80 per cent of the Occupied Gaza Strip.
n The PA controls only 21.7 per cent of the occupied Palestinian territories.
n The PA controls only 5 per cent of historical Palestine.

The world now hopes that West Asia would see an end to the nasty twist to the already forgotten roadmap. For once there seems to be some chance for peaceful negotiations. The birth of a democratic and independent Palestinian state is possibly around the corner. Though it is felt that the Israeli leadership and the US have always been disinclined to negotiate, the Palestinian leadership is of the view that a veto by the US on the Palestinian membership of the UN will blatantly show that Washington was never interested in sincerely initiating peace in West Asia.

A blood-spattered retribution or a peaceful solution still remain the alternatives before Israel and the US, who need to step down from retaining a superior bargaining position and take cognizance of their colonial high-handedness in suppressing the local population and giving Israeli people the right to settle on Palestinian land.

Israel must foresee an autonomous Palestine state and take a decision on defining the borders of the new country without leaving anything provisional. But deep in his heart, President Netanyahu of Israel wants to postpone the emergence of a Palestinian state for another half a century. He must realise or be made to realise that a conflict-free West Asia is possible if amicable solutions to the problems of refugees, borders and illegal settlements are found. The responsibility falls both on Israel and the Palestinian leadership facilitated with the support of an impartial global intervention and vigilance.

On its part, if Washington is sincere and committed to nudging West Asia towards peace, it should not be reluctant to confront the Israeli leadership or speak up against Palestinian militancy. In the light of the existing history of peace initiatives and unrestrained violence, there seems to be only one wayout: an international solution on the lines of what took place in East Timor through the pressure exerted by international opinion. It is clear that the nature of the West Asian problem cannot be changed through war or atrocities. Greater force is not the solution; President Obama must understand that American foreign policy must water down its monopoly of control as well as its interference in West Asia. And to achieve this, the West must support Palestine’s bid for statehood.

Recently, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas made an interesting attempt for full UN membership at the Security Council, knowing well that the US would not allow it. The only alternative left to Abbas is to then approach the UN General Assembly for membership which again might amount to the mere status of being an “observer state” in the manner of the Vatican. The latter might be possible as constitutionally veto is not allowed in the General Assembly. This resolution will undoubtedly carry with it the caveat guaranteeing security to Israel as well as the recognition of the 1967 borders on mutual agreement. But if this, too, fails the obvious result would be a return of hostilities propelled by the militant Hamas group which stands aggressively against the two-nation theory.

But if Abbas succeeds, a positive step towards peace in the region would have been initiated. His success, however, is not guaranteed, the road ahead being tough and tortuous as Israeli leaders refuse to vacate the occupied areas of Palestine. One outcome of Abbas’s bid has implicitly brought out the hypocrisy of the US in its efforts at the peace process. This could be the Palestine leader’s sole victory. One thing is clear: Obama’s role as an arbiter stands discredited and this is disappointing for those who thought he had ushered in a new roadmap for a lasting peace.

As is well known, Israel wants first to be recognised by the Palestinians as a Jewish state, and its adamant stand on this precondition is a deterrent to any peace negotiations. But Israel is also well aware of the fact that the majority in the General Assembly would probably vote for the Palestinian demand for membership. France and Spain are clearly on the side of the Arabs whereas Britain and Germany still have to do some introspection. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is desperate to persuade the European Union to back Israel. Only the final voting will tell how far he succeeds. And if the Palestinians lose, it most certainly would spark demonstrations accompanied by violence. Once again the world would see the reality of a peaceful West Asia receding from sight.

The deprivation of the Arabs and the institutionalised discrimination in West Asia underpins the Israeli policy towards Palestine. As Edward Said had said: “The Palestinian struggle for justice is especially something with which one expresses solidarity, rather than endless criticism and exasperated, frustrating discouragement and crippling divisiveness. Remember the solidarity here and everywhere in Latin America, Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia, and remember also that there is a cause to which many people have committed themselves, difficulties and terrible obstacles notwithstanding. Why? Because it is a just cause, a noble ideal, a moral quest for equality and human rights.”

It is for this just cause that in the days to come peace-loving nations of the world will have to incessantly voice disapproval against the Obama administration for aiding and abetting Israel. As French President Nicolas Sarkozy argued recently at the UN: “We must stop believing that a single country, even the largest, or a small group of countries can resolve so complex a problem.” His suggestion advocates a more active role for the European Union and the Arab states that are at peace with Israel. The Israel-Washington consensus has to be dismantled by a growing international pressure. The Palestinian leadership’s tabling of the application for statehood interestingly bypasses the powerful nations which have uptil now been engaged in fruitless talks and put the responsibility once again on the world body. The UN has the opportunity to redeem itself, but, one wonders, if it has the will.

Worldwide outlook must bring to bear pressure on Israel to end the occupation and to secure a sovereign Palestine. Already Jordan, Egypt and Turkey have shifted their support in favour of Palestine, especially with the ouster of Hosni Mubarak who staunchly disallowed the Palestinians from seeking statehood. Saudi Arabia too has warned the Americans that any lack of support by them for the Palestinian UN diplomacy would further the chasm between the two nations. The growing discomfort of the Israelis in the post-Arab Spring scenario only increases pressure on them to seek a more peaceful solution and refrain from setting up preconditions which are more provocative than salutary.

Finally one can ask: Where does the solution lie? While it cannot come from the right in Israel, the left remains unelectable. On the other hand, in Palestine, there is no check on the militant agitation as is evident from the gun-wielding public. Peace can never come from the top down; it is the people at the grassroots who can put an end to violence and terror campaigns. The majority of Palestinians are at present in full agreement with Abbas’s move at the UN. Now is the time to seek global support for a diplomatic settlement to an age-old issue.

The young leaders of Palestine have lost faith in the old guard and are ready to look beyond the constraints of their claustrophobic borders for a more vibrant intervention for lasting peace. This, they feel, cannot be found in diplomatic institutions which have failed them so far. The solution lies in gearing up global public opinion which is already veering towards support for the Palestinian cause, and this time not through violence, but through the unity of the Palestinian people and their nation. Remember, these are revolutionary times and Israel needs to tread softly.

As Judith Butler argues, “If nothing else, a new set of dynamics will be inaugurated through the statehood bid, and they may prove at the present conjuncture to be more important, and more valuable, than any of us can foresee at this time.”

The writer, Professor of English, Panjab University, Chandigarh, has authored a book, “Edward Said and the Writing of History”.