In what may come as a heartening assurance for not just the farmers but also the common man, IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi said: “Don't go by the numbers, we are hoping the distribution of the rains to be good. Well distributed rains will be good for crops and also water management”. But he also advised farmers to make the most of the “good monsoon rains till June-end” and thereafter follow agri-meteorological advisories issued by the IMD for updates.
Another good news also is that there appears to be very low probability for the rainfall to be deficient, below 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), or excess, above 110 per cent of the LPA, this year. Besides, the monsoon is also more or less on the track. The majority of the country, including most parts of the northwest except perhaps some western-most regions of Rajasthan, will be covered by the end of June or “definitely by the first week of
July”.
The rains normally breaks over Kerala on June 1, before blanketing the entire nation by July 15. This year the monsoon set in over the southern-most state on May 29, three days before the normal date of arrival.
On the whole rainfall would be 95 per cent of the long-term average overall, down from its April forecast of 98 per cent and just short of the 96-104 percent range, which counts as normal monsoon, Science and Technology Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said.
The LPA over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
Rainfall in July, the wettest month of the monsoon season, may be 93 per cent of the LPA while showers in August are forecast at 94 per cent.
India, world's largest producers and consumers of foodgrains like rice, sugar and corn, relies heavily on the June to September rains for agricultural output. Rains over northwest India, comprising country’s key cane, cotton and paddy growing region, is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA. The long period average for the northwest, which includes J&K, Himachal, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, is 615 mm
Central India is likely to receive 95 per cent rainfall, while showers over the southern peninsula will be 94 per cent. Rains over northeastern states, the top tea-growing region, may be 95 per cent of the average.
Sowing of monsoon crops begins in June and harvesting in September.
Agriculture makes up economy and a good harvest not just boosts rural incomes, it also lifts up the sales of tractors, cars and gold. Poor rainfall often triggers demand for higher rates for produce, waiver of loan repayment and electricity charges besides hitting public finances and causing inflation. In 2009 India saw the driest monsoon season in over three decades, pushing the country into international markets to buy sugar and triggering food prices to record highs.
