New Delhi, December 2
The Met Office has predicted that temperatures are likely to stay below normal in December, January and February.

The cold wave has already tightened its grip over the hills of Himachal with Shimla registering a sharp fall of 5.1° Celsius on Thursday. Jammu and Kashmir also continued to reel under intense cold conditions with the mercury dipping to -13.2° Celsius in Leh, which witnessed the coldest night of the winter. The minimum temperature settled at -2.2° Celsius in Srinagar, one degree below normal.

Both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMRWF) have indicated a higher probability of temperatures remaining below normal all through winter over the northwestern and western parts of the country.

Spatial charts on the IMD and ECMRWF websites suggest that December will see below normal minimum temperatures, except over the Himalayan region, east coast and northeast India. IMD chief Ajit Tyagi says that though he is not expecting an extremely harsh winter, but mean temperatures may go 4-6° Celsius below normal in the second half of December and the first half of January. For the rest of the season, temperatures will be within the normal range though on the lower side.

“Fluctuations will largely be in the range of 1-2° Celsius. We are not expecting extremely long spaced out cold spells this winter but temperatures can be expected to remain slightly below normal,” he says.

Incidentally, minimum temperatures during November remained 6-8° Celsius above normal. Climatologically, November is the driest month for the plains of the northwest and west. It is known mainly for sunny days and pleasant weather with a bit of early morning chill as the month progresses.

However, during the post-monsoon season this year, the northwest and west experienced unusual weather in terms of prolonged and persistently cloudy conditions with a wet spell. While minimum temperatures remained 6-8° Celsius above normal, maximum temperatures were appreciably below normal for many days during the second and third week of November.

The IMD has attributed this “unusual weather” to the presence of an intense low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea and interaction of high-amplitude troughs in easterlies.